Possible lottery picks in the 2022 draft:

[bajaden]

First I wanted to separate the possible lottery picks from the rest of the probable first round picks. Not as easy as one might think when you get down into the 10 to 14 range, where I think those picks will change from time to time as the year goes on. To me, the top four are fairly locked in, except for the order. So before I start doing profiles and videos, I'll give you my current top 14 picks, based on what I've seen so far. Subject to change in the future of course.

1. Jabari Smith: 6'10", 220 Lb, PF. I have Smith ahead of Banchero because I think he has a higher ceiling, and is a far better shooter at present.
2. Paolo Banchero: 6'10", 250 Lb, PF. Not the greatest athlete, but very skilled and crafty with probably the highest floor. Very physical player.
3. Chet Holmgren: 7'0", 195 Lb, C/PF. Tremendous ceiling, but very fragile looking. Could have the highest ceiling, but I would worry about how well his body holds up.
4. Jaden Ivey: 6'4", 200 Lb, PG/SG. Elite athlete! Been compared to Westbrook. Tremendous finisher, great midrange game, and shoots 45% from the three. And he defends!
5. Kendall Brown: 6'8", 205 Lb, SF. Elite athlete and terrific defender. May be the best defensive player in the draft. Has pogo sticks for legs. One of my favorites.
6. Bennedict Mathurin: 6'7", 197 Lb, SF/SG. Good athlete with good handles. Good defender and a good perimeter shooter. Excellent rebounder for his position.
7. Keegan Murray: 6'8", 225 Lb, PF/SF. Good athlete who I think can play SF. Very good rebounder and defender, and a good looking shot, although a bit inconsistent.
8. Ty Ty Washington: 6'3", 180 Lb, PG. Another very good Kentucky PG who can also play off the ball. Shooting right at 40% from the three and he defends.
9. Johnny Davis: 6'5", 195 Lb, SG. Davis is having a break out year putting up just under 21 pt's a game. Good rebounder and defender.
10. Jaden Hardy: 6'5", 185 Lb, SG. Most mocks have him higher, but he's a very inconsistent shooter and has trouble finishing at times. Shows potential as a defender.
11. Nikola Jovic: 6'10", 210 Lb, SF. You want to draft him just for his name. Very skilled player. Needs to be more consistent from three. Very good passer. Only eighteen.
12. Jalen Duren: 6'11", 250 Lb, C. Good rebounder, and rim protecter. Little to no offensive skills other than dunking and putbacks.
13. Jean Montero: 6'2", 175 Lb, PG. Montero is really a SG in a PG's body. He can score pt's in a hurry. Needs to get much stronger, but if you want offense, he's your guy.
14. Patrick Baldwin: 6'10", 200 Lb, SF/PF. To be honest, he's in the lottery on potential. He's been very disappointing so far this season. More on that in the write up.

Also rans:
15. J.D. Davison: 6'3", 195 Lb, PG. Very quick and skilled PG who loves to play going down hill. Not afraid of contact. Needs to improve his perimeter shot.
16. Caleb Houstan: 6'8", 190 Lb, SF. Houstan has been having a solid freshman year so far. Good athlete who is shooting just a tick under 37% from three.

 

[bajaden]

Kendall Brown: SF, 6'8", 205 Lb's, Freshman, Baylor.

23.7 mpg - 13.1 ppg - 71.4% fgp - 50.0% 3pp - 70.0% ftp - 3.3 rpg - 1.6 apg - 1.2 stl's

Brown is one of my favorite players in this draft. He's an exciting player with a non stop motor. He's a freak athlete with tremendous speed as well as great leaping ability. But he's not just a great athlete, he's a skilled athlete, and has very good BBIQ. He's able to make split second decisions with the ball and seldom makes a bad one. He's a surprisingly good ball handler, which certainly helps him attack the basket, which he does persistently, but seldom forces a bad shot. Thus the ridiculous 71.4% fgp.

That 50% 3pp will catch your eye, but he averages less than one a game, so it's a very small sample size. However, it's better to shoot 50% with a small sample size than 30%. Brown gets a lot of his baskets on backdoor cuts. If your guarding him in the corner and you turn your head for even a second, he's gone to the basket. One thing that surprised me was his ability to pass the ball. He makes quick decisions when doubled or has his lane blocked. I wouldn't call him a three level scorer quite yet, but you can see the potential down the road. A PG like Haliburton would be in heaven playing with a player like Brown. You throw the ball anywhere up near the basket, and he'll go get it. He also has good hands and catches passes that many players couldn't.

He's a very good defender and has the potential to be a great defender. He doesn't just use his athleticism. He's a very smart player who reads the floor. He seems to know where the opposing player is going to pass the ball. Sometimes he baits the opposing player by faking a double toward the intended receiver of the pass. There was a play in the Stanford game where Brown was guarding his man near the right corner. Stanford's PG set up to pass the ball to his center in the lane who had position. Brown saw the play develop and took two or three quick steps toward the center just as the PG left his feet to pass the ball over his defender. The minute he was in the air he saw Brown and tried to change is pass to Browns man in the corner, but Brown had anticipated exactly that and intercepted the pass for a steal.

I won't go out on a limb and proclaim that Brown will be a star, but he certainly has all the makings of one. He's exciting to watch and he's impossible to miss when you watch a game. I used to say that I need at least one wow moment out of a player. Well, with Brown, the wow moments just keep coming. He's had some of the most spectacular dunks I've ever seen. I doubt the Kings will get a shot at him in the draft, barring some sort of miracle, but I would love to have him on our team.

 

[kingsboi]

looking forward to your analysis Baja, Kings will be in the 7-10 range again barring a major trade come February so this time of the season all the way until the end of March Madness is the time to get familiar with future Kings prospects

 

[The_Jamal]

@bajaden Tell me how off-base I am, but I think Ivey is a far better prospect than Jalen Green was/is. He's a little older than Green was, but man, his leap this season has been incredible. Superb length/athleticism (6'4 with a 6'10 wingspan) profiles well for being an elite defender at the next level and I think his shooting stroke gives him the "3-level" scorer label that was given to Green all through draft season. I see tremendous playmaking upside for him too and he's just so confident with the ball in his hands and is pretty unselfish with the ball.

He's just a fun dude to watch play. So few weaknesses on the offensive end, he plays super hard on both ends and his physical attributes give him a real star profile.

 

[iowamcnabb]

One of my employees went to Purdue and always has the game on so I’ve seen a ton of Ivey. I don’t know if he is as explosive as Green but he is smooth as silk. That team is stacked too and has a good chance to win it all. He reminds me of Ja Morant a bit with some of his drives.

 

[bajaden]

@bajaden Tell me how off-base I am, but I think Ivey is a far better prospect than Jalen Green was/is. He's a little older than Green was, but man, his leap this season has been incredible. Superb length/athleticism (6'4 with a 6'10 wingspan) profiles well for being an elite defender at the next level and I think his shooting stroke gives him the "3-level" scorer label that was given to Green all through draft season. I see tremendous playmaking upside for him too and he's just so confident with the ball in his hands and is pretty unselfish with the ball.

He's just a fun dude to watch play. So few weaknesses on the offensive end, he plays super hard on both ends and his physical attributes give him a real star profile.

I could probably make and argument that Ivey is the best player in the draft. He's certainly one of the most exciting. It's difficult to find a flaw in his game. He can play on or off the ball equally well. He's a terrific athlete. He can score from anywhere on the floor, and he makes plays at the basket that are at times, mind blowing. I love the kid, and its probably unfair to say that Smith, Holmgren, and Banchero are all better than him simply because they're all 6'10" or better.

It wouldn't surprise me that if 5 years from now Ivey is the best player to come out of this draft..

 

[bajaden]

One of my employees went to Purdue and always has the game on so I’ve seen a ton of Ivey. I don’t know if he is as explosive as Green but he is smooth as silk. That team is stacked too and has a good chance to win it all. He reminds me of Ja Morant a bit with some of his drives.

Yeah, most of the scouting comps have been Ja Morant, but with an NBA body, or Westbrook, but with a shot. I guess you could throw Wall into that comp as well. I'm not sure how to fairly judge how explosive one player is over another, but both players have every quick or explosive first steps off the dribble. Ivey also has those little hesitation moves when he's attacking which works because he can stop on a dime and shoot, but if you bite on the move, he blows right past you to the basket. He also has the Fox like smile that lights up the room. Doesn't hurt!

 

[bajaden]

Jaden Ivey: PG/SG, 6'4", 200 Lb's, 6'10" wingspan, Sophmore, Purdue.
28.9 mpg - 16.9 ppg - 52.8% fgp - 46.2% 3pp - 72.7% ftp - 5.4 rpg - 3.3 apg - 1.5 stl's - ORtg 124.8 - DRtg 93.6

Yeah, I know, I already did a write up on Ivey in the other thread, but if anyone deserves another write up it's Ivey. Ivey is one of the best players in this draft and may end up being the best player. He's certainly one of the most exciting. He's a walking highlight reel. He's been compared to Ja Morant, and Russell Westbrook and I can see the comparisons, but he may end up being better than either of them. He's an explosive player with a terrific first step off the dribble. He loves to play in the open court going downhill. Once he has a head of steam he's hard to stop. Amazingly, he always seems to be under control despite going at warp speed.

He has the handles, and the little hesitation moves along with his great speed to break ankles. At times it's almost as if he has his defender on a string jerking him back and forth. He can blow right by his defender or he can stop on a dime and shoot the ball. Oh yeah, he can also pull up at the three pt line and shoot. Obviously he's a very difficult player to defend, and because of all the attention he draws, he has open teammates all over the floor, which he's very good at finding.

He has the potential to be a lock down defender down the road. Right now, he uses his athleticism and good defensive instincts to make an impact. He's good at keeping his man in front of him, and if picked off, he always pursues the play and many times manages to get back in front of his man, or block a shot from behind. Ivey is an elite athlete! Is he as fast as Westbrook or Fox? Don't know, but there are times when he explodes to the basket and looks like a blurr. All I know is that he's right up there with those guys. He's the total package, and he seems to love playing the game, which is a big one for me.

There are players that love to play the game. It's their life and they're dedicated to it. Then there are players that are very good, but they play the game because they have the talent, and they know they can make a lot of money at it. It's the players that love the game that tend to become stars in the league. Practice to them isn't work, it's fun. If a player looks at playing the game as just a job, as work, he'll never put in as much work as a player that loves the game. Just my personal theory.

There are two players that if I was asked who do I think could be a star and maybe a superstar out of this draft, I would say Jaden Ivey, and Jabari Smith. I could be wrong, and I probably am wrong about there only being two players if we limit it to stars. I was asked by my son that if I had the first pick in the draft who would I choose between Smith and Ivey. I said I would have to think a while about that. Anyway, enough about that. I love Ivey and I think he's a sure fire bet to be a star in the league, barring injury.

 

[ESP47]

Ivey looks like he has usable athleticism. Unlike many players who are athletic but can't combine it with NBA skills, he looks like he applies it to his game perfectly. His ability to hang in the air and make last second decisions with the ability to still finish the shot attempt under control is pretty rare. Has great burst around the basket when needed too.

 

[coolhandluke]

Wow, Ivey already has NBA level killer hesitation moves. There is no wasted motion and he is very decisive in every movement he makes. The clarity in thought combined with his physical gifts make him special.

 

[206Fan]

If we decide to trade Fox, Johnny Davis is the guy I want next to Haliburton. 6'5 SG who scores like Devin Booker while playing good defense. I think he's a star in the making.

His stat line vs. Ivey's Purdue: 37pts 14rebs 3asts 2blks 2stls 3tos on 13-24 from the floor.

I think he'll be top 5 when it's all said and done.

Edit: adding more, I think this is looking like a great draft. If fans were in love with Scottie Barnes from last year, they'll love Jabari Smith Jr.

I know it seems like I say this every year, but we seriously need a top pick this year. It allows us to pick our guy instead of hoping he falls. We missed out on Franz Wagner because of this.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

If we decide to trade Fox, Johnny Davis is the guy I want next to Haliburton. 6'5 SG who scores like Devin Booker while playing good defense. I think he's a star in the making.

His stat line vs. Ivey's Purdue: 37pts 14rebs 3asts 2blks 2stls 3tos on 13-24 from the floor.

I think he'll be top 5 when it's all said and done.

It was a great game, but Davis was given volume shooting attempts, and for much of the game was not guarded by Ivey because Purdue was hiding him due to foul trouble. What I saw today - my first intent look at Davis, BTW - is a player with a good but maybe not great midrange shot and a somewhat questionable three pointer. If you look a his season shooting stats (particularly 3P% and 3PA) and compare them to Ivey's I think you might conclude that Ivey is the better scorer. Today Davis managed to get I think 4 fast break buckets (all off steals by a teammate??), which is gravy, but I don't get the impression that it's a particular SKILL of his, just that he was in the right position at the right time.

What I see out of Ivey that I don't see out of Davis is, first and foremost, incredible burst. Ivey, when he "hits the B button", is a blur. I don't see that out of Davis. Ivey's handle is much better, but Ivey is more of a lead guard and Davis is definitely a shooting guard.

Davis won today, no doubt, but in the long run I still think Ivey is the far better NBA prospect. While Ivey has seen a small increase in usage this year translate into a big increase in shooting percentages (what looks like true improvement), Davis has seen a very big increase in usage result in a decrement in shooting percentages. I reserve the right to change my mind on that as more data comes in, but Ivey looks top-5 to me right now, while Davis (though NBA talent) could easily be outside of the lottery.

 

[206Fan]

It was a great game, but Davis was given volume shooting attempts, and for much of the game was not guarded by Ivey because Purdue was hiding him due to foul trouble. What I saw today - my first intent look at Davis, BTW - is a player with a good but maybe not great midrange shot and a somewhat questionable three pointer. If you look a his season shooting stats (particularly 3P% and 3PA) and compare them to Ivey's I think you might conclude that Ivey is the better scorer. Today Davis managed to get I think 4 fast break buckets (all off steals by a teammate??), which is gravy, but I don't get the impression that it's a particular SKILL of his, just that he was in the right position at the right time.

What I see out of Ivey that I don't see out of Davis is, first and foremost, incredible burst. Ivey, when he "hits the B button", is a blur. I don't see that out of Davis. Ivey's handle is much better, but Ivey is more of a lead guard and Davis is definitely a shooting guard.

Davis won today, no doubt, but in the long run I still think Ivey is the far better NBA prospect. While Ivey has seen a small increase in usage this year translate into a big increase in shooting percentages (what looks like true improvement), Davis has seen a very big increase in usage result in a decrement in shooting percentages. I reserve the right to change my mind on that as more data comes in, but Ivey looks top-5 to me right now, while Davis (though NBA talent) could easily be outside of the lottery.

As you get to watch Davis, your opinion may sway the other way. He's got lots of great challenges for the rest of the season. B1G looks like it might be the 2nd best conference this year.

In terms of shooting, Ivey is an improved shooter this year, but I don't think his 44% will stick. Davis' freshman year has a smaller sample size because he came off the bench for Wisconsin. Davis has a good stroke and follow through, but his footwork can be really sloppy when he's not set. On the other hand, Ivey has an unorthodox shot (seems like it's worked well for Haliburton). I would be a lot more confident in the 3pt shot if he didn't shoot so poorly from 3pt last year, while still only shooting sub 70% from FT this year.


These are Ivey's shooting numbers:
2020: 25.8% 3pt (4.2 attempts) --- 72.6% FT (3.2 attempts)
2021: 44.8% 3pt (4.8attempts) --- 73.8% FT (4.4 attempts)

Compared to Johnny Davis:
2020: 38.9% 3pt (1.2 attempts) --- 72.7% (1.4 attempts)
2021: 34.8% 3pt (4.2 attempts) --- 82.1% (6.1 attempts)


I do have Ivey over Davis as a prospect, but they're two completely different players. Ivey should be an uptempo explosive PG/SG at the next level with the ability score by breaking down defenses. Johnny Davis will be more of a traditional SG who excels as a scorer in the half-court with a PG alongside him. At their max potential, in short, Ivey will be the guy who runs your offense. Davis will be the guy you build your offense around.

 

[bajaden]

Johnny Davis: SG, 6'5", 196 Lb's, 6'8" wingspan, Sophmore, Wisconsin.
34.6 mpg - 22.3 ppg - 45.1% fgp - 34.8% 3pp - 82.1% ftp - 7.3 rpg - 2.5 apg - 1.5 stl's - ORtg-112.8 - DRtg-92.1

Johnny Davis is having a break out year. Coming out of high school he wasn't even in the top 100 ranked players in the nation. However, he was Jaden Ivey's teammate, so they know each other very well, which probably helped Davis a little when he matched up against his former teammate last week. It was a great game by the way for those that didn't see it. I think both players played very well, and no, they didn't guard one another very often in the game.

Davis is a hard nosed player who plays with intensity and he's made Wisconsin relative this season. Wisconsin doesn't really have a legit PG, so Davis has the ball in his hands a lot with a usage rate of 32.2%. For those that don't know, that's through the roof for a usage rate. He also has a very high percentage on creating his own shot. From the three 63.2% of his shots are assisted, but from the two, or in his case the mid-range, he creates his own shot 83.8% of the time, which is a very high percentage. That combined with his usage rate make him a work horse for Wisconsin. He's also 2nd in the Big Ten in minutes player per game.

While Davis 34.8% from the three doesn't blow you away, he did shoot 38.9% his freshman year. When you look at his catch and shoots from the three, he's right up there around 40%. Where he makes his money is in the mid-range where he's shooting 40.2%. In fact the majority of his shots come from mid-range or at the basket where he shoots over 60%. Bear in mind that he's the focus of every teams defense. Speaking of defense, he plays both ends of the court. He has excellent lateral movement and has no problem staying in front of his man.

Davis is one of the best rebounding guards in college pulling down 7.3 boards a game. What surprised me was his passing ability, which he uses well when posts up. And yes, he's a very good post up player and seems to always make the right pass when the double comes. While he doesn't have elite handles, like Ivey, he has good handles and is able to get into the lane where he uses a variety of shakes and bakes, hesitation moves, and head fakes to create space.

Davis has been a surprise and I really like the intensity he plays with. I don't like comp's, but he does remind me a bit of a young Jimmy Butler the way he attacks the basket, and his no nonsense approach to the game. I think he's a lottery pick, at least so far. I think I had him going at 9. If he keeps playing the same way, I might move him up a spot or two.

In response to the friendly debate going on in couple of previous posts, if I had to choose between Ivey and Davis, I would take Ivey. I think Ivey has the chance, or the tools if you will, to be a future superstar. I don't see Davis as a superstar. Probably not an all star, but I do see him as a very good rotational player, eventual starter, and borderline all star. But hey, he may surprise us.....

 

[sactowndog]

Kendall Brown: SF, 6'8", 205 Lb's, Freshman, Baylor.

23.7 mpg - 13.1 ppg - 71.4% fgp - 50.0% 3pp - 70.0% ftp - 3.3 rpg - 1.6 apg - 1.2 stl's

Brown is one of my favorite players in this draft. He's an exciting player with a non stop motor. He's a freak athlete with tremendous speed as well as great leaping ability. But he's not just a great athlete, he's a skilled athlete, and has very good BBIQ. He's able to make split second decisions with the ball and seldom makes a bad one. He's a surprisingly good ball handler, which certainly helps him attack the basket, which he does persistently, but seldom forces a bad shot. Thus the ridiculous 71.4% fgp.

That 50% 3pp will catch your eye, but he averages less than one a game, so it's a very small sample size. However, it's better to shoot 50% with a small sample size than 30%. Brown gets a lot of his baskets on backdoor cuts. If your guarding him in the corner and you turn your head for even a second, he's gone to the basket. One thing that surprised me was his ability to pass the ball. He makes quick decisions when doubled or has his lane blocked. I wouldn't call him a three level scorer quite yet, but you can see the potential down the road. A PG like Haliburton would be in heaven playing with a player like Brown. You throw the ball anywhere up near the basket, and he'll go get it. He also has good hands and catches passes that many players couldn't.

He's a very good defender and has the potential to be a great defender. He doesn't just use his athleticism. He's a very smart player who reads the floor. He seems to know where the opposing player is going to pass the ball. Sometimes he baits the opposing player by faking a double toward the intended receiver of the pass. There was a play in the Stanford game where Brown was guarding his man near the right corner. Stanford's PG set up to pass the ball to his center in the lane who had position. Brown saw the play develop and took two or three quick steps toward the center just as the PG left his feet to pass the ball over his defender. The minute he was in the air he saw Brown and tried to change is pass to Browns man in the corner, but Brown had anticipated exactly that and intercepted the pass for a steal.

I won't go out on a limb and proclaim that Brown will be a star, but he certainly has all the makings of one. He's exciting to watch and he's impossible to miss when you watch a game. I used to say that I need at least one wow moment out of a player. Well, with Brown, the wow moments just keep coming. He's had some of the most spectacular dunks I've ever seen. I doubt the Kings will get a shot at him in the draft, barring some sort of miracle, but I would love to have him on our team.

Curious if you are 4th and Brown and Ivy are both on the board and you are the Kings, whom do you take?

 

[beb0p]

This dude is my early draft crush. He's an inch shorter than you'd like, has an unorthodox wide base shooting motion, and had a knee injury; but I think he is going in the lottery and won't be surprised if he goes earlier than many people are pegging him.

 

[bajaden]

Curious if you are 4th and Brown and Ivy are both on the board and you are the Kings, whom do you take?

Sorry it took some time to get back to you, but I've been busy compiling information, and working on my house. Big storm came through and blew down my fence. It's the nature of the beast when you live right on the ocean. Anyway, to answer your question, I would take Ivey, knowing that Brown actually fits a more urgent need position wise. Ivey is everything Westbrook is, and he's also everything Westbrook is not. In my humble opinion.

I love both players, but unless a miracle occurs, that's a decision that I, or the Kings won't have to make.

 

[bajaden]

I think it's time to revise my top 14. Won't do the top 30 just yet because there's too much movement and my opinion seems to change daily. So with no further ado here's my top 14 with some obvious changes.

1. Jabari Smith
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Johnny Davis
6. Keegan Murray
7. Kendall Brown
8. Adrian Griffin
9. Ty Ty Washington
10. Jalen Duren
11. Benedict Mathurin
12. Jaden Hardy
13. Nikola Jovic
14. Jean Montero

Obviously the big changes were Davis and Griffin. Griffin is starting to look like the player everyone thought he would be. I don't think he's gotten back all his athleticism, and he looks a bit rusty at times, but you can see the talent and the confidence. I've been very impressed with him since his return. Brown has struggled a bit as teams game plan for him. He's reluctant to take shots away from the basket, which bothers me a bit. Hardy has a lot of ability, and may be fine after some time in the NBA, but right now, he's extremely inconsistent. I've been a bit more impressed with Duren. He's a good passer and I think you could run the ball through him. And he's young, so there's time for him to develop.

Ty Ty Washington is going to be a better player once in the NBA than he is right now at Kentucky. He got a chance to play the point, his true position with Wheeler out, and boy did he impress. Against Georgia he put up 17 points, and 17 assists. He did come back down to earth against Tennessee with only 5 assists, but he did score 28 points on just 13 shot attempts.

A player that no one seems to be talking about is Kentucky's center, Oscar Tshiebwe. At 6'9" and 260 Lb's, he's a bit undersized for the center position, but he leads all of college in rebounds. Against Tennessee he scored 29 points and pulled down 17 rebounds. He has great hands, and must have a huge wingspan in order to rebound the way he does. He's a very good passer and had excellent touch around the basket. He's also built like Hercules.

 

[bajaden]

Ty Ty Washington: PG/SG, 6'3", 195 Lb's, Freshman, Kentucky.
31.7 mpg - 14.5 ppg - 51.5% fgp - 41.1% 3pp - 81.5% ftp - 4.2 rpg - 4.8 apg - 1.2 steals

Washington has gotten better as the season has progressed. Remember that he came to Kentucky as a PG, and due to the emergence of Sahvir Wheeler at that position, Washington has been forced to play SG. As a result I think he struggled some at the start of the season, but it appears he's adjusted and figured out how to play off the ball. In my opinion he's definitely a lottery pick and to be honest, I probably having him going higher than some. I think he's the second best PG in the draft after Ivey.

Washington is a three level scorer who can score from anywhere on the floor. The release on his jumpshot is a tad low, but he has a quick release and has no problem getting his shot off. I'm encouraged by his 41% average from three along with his 81.5% average from the line. He's also proved that he's a very good passer despite not having had as many opportunities to display it. A couple of games ago with Wheeler out, Ty Ty got the chance to run the point against Georgia, and put up 17 assists along with 17 pt's and a couple of steals.

Speaking of steals, Washington is a decent to good defender, at least at the college level. He certainly has the potential to be a good defender at the next level, but until that happens the jury is still out. He is smart, and good at reading and anticipating plays by the opposition. I personally think Washington is another Kentucky player that will be better in the NBA than he was in college. There's a history of Kentucky guards having more tools in their bag of tricks than they displayed in college. Quickly, Maxey, Alexander, Booker, Murray; all good at Kentucky, but far better once they got to the NBA.

Washington isn't explosive like Ivey, but he's efficient and seldom makes mistakes. He seems to be able to get anywhere he wants on the floor. He's uses picks extremely well, which is becoming a lost art. He's not a crafty passer like Haliburton, but he always finds the open man and makes the safe pass. I wasn't that high on him at the beginning of the season, but he's won me over, and he's probably the best player on the Kentucky team. But I have to put a plug in for Oscar Tshiebwe the 6'9" center for Kentucky. He's impressed the hell out of me. But that's for a different post.

 

[bajaden]

Keegan Murray: SF/PF, 6'8", 225 Lb's, 6'11" wingspan, Soph, Iowa
27.8 mpg - 22.8 ppg - 57.3% fgp - 34.1% 3pp - 76.7% ftp - 8.4 rpg - 1.2 apg - 1.4 steals - 2.2 blocks per game - ORtg 133.7 - DRtg 92.7

Murray is one of my favorites in the draft. Like Johnny Davis, he's having a break out sophomore year. After getting off to a rough start from beyone the arc and shooting slightly under 30%, he's gotten his 3 pt shot up to 34.1% and rising. Matter of fact his game seems to be getting better as the year proceeds. He's a smooth, fluid athlete who makes everything he does seem easy. He's a three tier scorer who runs the floor hard. He's also a very smart player who knows how to play the game. He knows when to cut to the basket. He's constantly moving without the ball, and obviously, he's a player that doesn't need to have the ball in his hands.

He's a tenacious rebounder for a SF, and he plays with a physicality, which is something the Kings need. He's an excellent post up player who can play some bully ball at times. At 225 lb's he's already a physically strong player who can also play some PF. Two areas of improvement for him are probably his ball handling and his passing. Neither of those are at present a liability, I just think that improvement in those areas could lift his game to a higher level.

What makes Murray more special than some of the other wings in the draft, is that besides being a proficient and efficient offensive player, he's an excellent defensive player. He's a terrific help defender who is averaging 2.2 blocked shots a game. You don't see many 6'8" players block that many shots. His timing as a help defender is terrific, getting there at the precise moment to block a shot. He's equally efficient at either guarding the basket, or on the ball on the perimeter, and he has a good nose for the ball in the passing lanes, averaging 1.4 steals a game.

Keegan has a twin brother named Kris, who also plays for Iowa who looks a very talented player. He doesn't get the minutes that Keegan gets, but if you look up their per 36 stats, they're very similar. Both are Sophomores, which makes sense since they're twins. Not sure what Kris's aspirations are for this coming draft, but it wouldn't surprise me if he stayed another year at Iowa and stepped into his brothers role. Of course we don't know where the Kings will be drafting, or even if they'll have a draft pick by the time of the draft, but if it's between the 7th and 10th spots, and Keegan is sitting there, I think you have to take him. I'm not saying he's a can't miss player, but I wouldn't bet against him.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Keegan would be perfect for the Kings and his brother has been ascending lately. If we drafted Keegan I think he could make an instant impact on our defense and stretch the floor.

Even if we end up not trading Fox or Haliburton we could make a jump next season with some tweaks.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I haven't yet taken a good look at Keegan this year, but he did catch my eye last year. The question that I have is whether he can actually play SF, or whether he's exclusively a stretch-four, which isn't such a great fit for our team as currently constructed. Barnes is possibly better at the four (but can hang at the three), and we've got more big men and more big men (Holmes, Bagley, Metu, Len, Queta) that we control next year, and outside of those guys we have a bunch of guards and I guess Harkless. But it's rough, because I'm also not sold on all the SF options in this draft. I'm not quite sure how it's shaping up, but if we do want to target a SF I'd almost be in favor of trading down to target Jabari Walker or Peyton Watson if he enters.

 

[bajaden]

I haven't yet taken a good look at Keegan this year, but he did catch my eye last year. The question that I have is whether he can actually play SF, or whether he's exclusively a stretch-four, which isn't such a great fit for our team as currently constructed. Barnes is possibly better at the four (but can hang at the three), and we've got more big men and more big men (Holmes, Bagley, Metu, Len, Queta) that we control next year, and outside of those guys we have a bunch of guards and I guess Harkless. But it's rough, because I'm also not sold on all the SF options in this draft. I'm not quite sure how it's shaping up, but if we do want to target a SF I'd almost be in favor of trading down to target Jabari Walker or Peyton Watson if he enters.

Nope, I'd take Keegan 10 times out of 10 over either Walker or Watson. Keegan can play SF. He's a very good athlete who I've seen guard all five positions on occasion. His ability to defend is one of the things I love about him. I've been impressed with his basketball IQ, and the Kings need players can play hard, but also play smart. In my humble opinion he's a wing that can play some PF, and not a PF that can play on the wing at times.

 

[bajaden]

Adrian Griffin Jr.: SF, 6'6", 222 Lb's. 7'0" wingspan, Fr, Duke.
18.4 mpg - 8.3 ppg - 53.5% fgp - 46.6% 3pp - 71.4% ftp - 3.2 rpg - 1.0 apg - ORtg 139.2 - DRtg 96.6

Griffin is coming off a severe knee sprain, and thus the limited minutes as he shakes off the rust. However you can see his confidence growing every game. His father was an NBA player who played around 10 seasons and is now an assistant coach in the NBA. Soooo, Griffin Jr. knows how to play the game. He has excellent BBIQ. Prior to the injury he was an above average athlete and borderline elite athlete. You can see his athleticism coming back as he's starting to trust his knee. One thing his injury hasn't affected is his ability to score. He's shooting lights out from beyond the arc and hitting 53% of his shots overall.

Griffin plays with intensity and is a very very good on the ball defender where he uses his huge wingspan to deflect or poke the ball away. Like Keegan Murray he has a ready made NBA body and has no problem bullying his way to the basket. He tends to play low to the floor, making himself appear shorter than he is. He doesn't seem to have lost any verticality, and has no problem playing above the rim. However, he has a history of having these injuries that sideline him from time to time. Personally, I don't think it's anything to be overly concerned about, but I might bring it back into consideration if I had to choose between him and Murray.

I think Griffin is another player that could be there when we pick, if we pick. He has a lot of upside and could be one of those players that's considered a tier 2 player that ends up being a tier 1 player a few years down the road. He's a hard worker who plays hard and with a bit of an edge. There's something different about him that I can't put my finger on, but whatever it is, it's not a bad thing. Not sure how to comp him, maybe Jaylen Brown, who has a similar size and body type. But barring injury, I think Griffin at worse is a solid rotational player, but in all likely hood, he's a starter and a possible star.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Nope, I'd take Keegan 10 times out of 10 over either Walker or Watson.

Hey, I did say trade down!

Speaking of wings, after a few COVID-failures I was finally able to catch Caleb Houstan today in his matchup against Indiana. I know his numbers haven't been great this year so far, but he really impressed today. Based on high school he was in the lottery in most mocks I saw to start the year, but now he's buried a lot deeper due to his cold start. He could be another good option for a Kings team in the mid-late lotto looking for a wing.

 

[sactowndog]

Wings will come off the board early if the last couple of years are any indication.

 

[upinsmoke]

Thanks in advance Baja. Let's keep it simple and draft a defensive minded wing.

 

[SCKingsfan]

Thanks in advance Baja. Let's keep it simple and draft a defensive minded wing.

...with some height and reach and an above average BB IQ...

 

[funkykingston]

Hey, I did say trade down!

Speaking of wings, after a few COVID-failures I was finally able to catch Caleb Houstan today in his matchup against Indiana. I know his numbers haven't been great this year so far, but he really impressed today. Based on high school he was in the lottery in most mocks I saw to start the year, but now he's buried a lot deeper due to his cold start. He could be another good option for a Kings team in the mid-late lotto looking for a wing.

Houston and Baldwin Jr have both disappointed so far (Baldwin much more than Houston) , but their games are both better suited for today's NBA than the college game.

@bajaden - I'm curious where you have Tari Eason. He's one of my favorites in the second half of the 1st round but I could see him sneaking into the lottery. We say this about a few prospects every year, but if he developed a consistent outside shot he could have a heck of a career IMO.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Houston and Baldwin Jr have both disappointed so far (Baldwin much more than Houston) , but their games are both better suited for today's NBA than the college game.

Baldwin has been hurt. I saw the game against Robert Morris where he was just lighting it up (6-6 from three) and his stroke looked real nice. But I'm not 100% sure that he's athletically up to a wing position. Since he's got an ankle injury that may have played into it. I think he's a high BBIQ player and did a great job facilitating the offense from the soft spot at the top of the zone much of the game. I just really want to see his athleticism when he's healthy.