Playoffs or high draft picks?

[Glenn]

Slim, I don't know where you think I stand on this but I respect Petrie for what he has done and hope he repeats it. However, what he accomplished in the past took a lot of luck. We were lucky that Webber straightened up his act to be tolerable. We were lucky that Vlade was available. Maybe the GM gets credit for that and maybe he shouldn't have. Certainly he gets some credit.

I hope he can pull off the same trick but again the stars are going to have to be aligned perfectly. You can only go so far with the draft as if you get a stud like Oden, you have instantly taken yourself out of the position of getting another great draft pick. Unless of course he gets injured or has surgery. Oden's surgery, much like Robinson's injury of a decade ago, has suddenly placed a small market into a competitive situation. One year of a superstar sitting out can lead to the draft acquisition of another potential superstar.

A great trade needs to be made and that usually involves two of ours for a one from the other team. In most cases it's the only way of getting a great player as inherently trading one to one means you are getting equal value back. The trade of Webber for three had me scratching my head. It rattled my faith as we got essentially nothing in return for someone who, at least in Philadelphia, people thought was going to pair with Iverson to get them a championship. We should have gotten more.

Then there are free agents. Cap rules work against us in getting a free agent pried away from another team. We must hope that there is another Vlade out there and we must hope that Petrie can be persuasive. It's the only way we can get maximum benefit out of the pile of cash we'll have available to spend in the summer of 2010.

I think Petrie is a straight shooter and if the Maloofs would stand aside, I think he is a good guy to seduce players away from a situation they might not like.

I trust Petrie but do not think he is infallible.

 

[Kingzrool]

I expect the players to play as hard as they can. I expect the coach to coach the team with the intent to win. I expect the GM, however, to do what is in the best interests of the team in the long term, which is not necessarily (and is not, in this case, in my opinion) winning in the short term. If that means getting rid of "all the good players," then so be it.

EDIT - Let me put it like this: I'd give anything short of my first born to trade our roster wholesale for Portland's.

I hear you. but...

I may be going out on a limb here, but I do not see the current ownership or management as willing to trade all the tallent (not nec. vets) for youth or draft picks. In fact GP has more of a history of trading away picks. You may be correct in your thinking, but I think GP has a different idea of how to make this happen. And for better or worse, it does not include being a loser. Last year can really be placed on Muss and although that was GP's call, he was saving us from Weiss. I ask now - who can blame him for passionately recommending whomever he knew that they would consider aside from Weiss?

I will still trust in GP over you. Not blindly, but seeing that with an exciting product on the floor, you attract higher caliber players. Trade/free agency is going to be the way that GP gets us out of this mess, whether it is the best method or not.

 

[Glenn]

Last year can really be placed on Muss and although that was GP's call, he was saving us from Weiss. I ask now - who can blame him for passionately recommending whomever he knew that they would consider aside from Weiss?

I think the people who screwed up this team were the Maloofs and their impatience. They didn't like Adelman and didn't mind the major dis of going after Jackson while Adelman was coaching. All bridges were burned. Their emotions got in the way of sound basketball judgment. We are suffering and they are losing money for this mistake. I hope they have learned something.

 

[Kingzrool]

I think the people who screwed up this team were the Maloofs and their impatience. They didn't like Adelman and didn't mind the major dis of going after Jackson while Adelman was coaching. All bridges were burned. Their emotions got in the way of sound basketball judgment. We are suffering and they are losing money for this mistake. I hope they have learned something.

Agreed.

I actually do see their frustration with RA, but considering his "connection" with Artest, I really feel that they should have given him one more year. I am confident that if so, he would still be coaching for the Kings. Regardless, they should not have "let him go" (not re-signed him) until they had some suitable replacement in the wings.

I think the recent "censorship" really shows that "they" know this and have hard feelings. Any healthy seperation can and should be appreciated from all perspectives.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Slim, I don't know where you think I stand on this but I respect Petrie for what he has done and hope he repeats it. However, what he accomplished in the past took a lot of luck. We were lucky that Webber straightened up his act to be tolerable. We were lucky that Vlade was available. Maybe the GM gets credit for that and maybe he shouldn't have. Certainly he gets some credit.

I think that this is more of an argument against trades and free agency than it is in favor. If we're counting on Petrie to pull another trade like the Rock Richmond for Webber trade out of his hat, then we're going to be in for a long wait, in my opinion.

But, at any rate, I feel like you're not reading what I wrote: I did not, in fact, say that we shouldn't try for a trade. What I said was that your chances of getting a Great Player in the lottery are superior to your chances of getting a Great Player in a trade. And, even with the Rock/Webber trade, we traded a really good player whom was still playing at a high level (and was acquired in the first place thanks to the fact that we had the #3 overall pick in 1991) for a really good player that not only had a bad reputation, but was considered injury-prone. Divac was a great fit for this team, complimented Webber perfectly, and held this team together, but he clearly was not a superstar. And seriously? He's the best free agent we've ever had, bar none... and, for this market, he's probably as good as we're likely to get. All I was saying about free agents is that getting a star player through free agency is virtually unheard of, and there's really only three teams in the league right now where you can say they signed their best player as a free agent (and one of them lied to his old team in order to be released from his contract).

I never said that I didn't think that free agency and trades are important parts; what I'm saying is that I think that the draft is the most important part. I mean, hell, I can only think of two teams in the history of the league to ever win the championship that didn't draft at least one of their two best players, and I'd hate to hang my hopes on the Kings being team number three.

 

[1kingzfan]

This is a very good discussion.

Reading those who have the tanker philosophy here and very often revel in our team's losses and bemoan the wins is very disappointing. And especially so early in the season to start with the tanker chants. I certainly understand where tankers are coming from, and their claim that they alone have the long view to success, but my opinion is that it is very misplaced.

We want to lose the max games possible so that we have some % chance at a top 3 pick? I would rather accept ther low odds of a first round playoff success.

Are we rebuilding now or not? I think we are. Just look at minutes for young players compared with the last

True, we have a whole ton of very bad signs, including NO road wins to date and our typically stinky front line play, but how in the world can this sucky team with its sucky front line be 7-10 without 2 key starters for 7 games and 1 key starter for all 17? I mean...really?

As Kingzrool has stated, how you go about tanking is very unclear, and no one has ever had a decent answer here as to how to accomplish it, especially with 80% of the season to go. But that issue is irrelevant, simply because it will not happen.

My only question is this: Do any of you tankers sit in Arco to watch the games on any regular basis?

I would bet that none of the tankers do...not a one.

I mean, how could you? Sit there and root against your team? Curse every great Kings' play? Stomp your feet over every wonderful shot? Walk out angry when "your" team makes a few plays at the end and closes out an unlikely win? And then, if you happen to have paid to view games at $80, $100, or in my case, $250 per game for a pair of seats and parking, how could you go there and pray for tanking?

When the Lakers are in town, you just as soon don a Kobe jersey.

I think I heard some tanker cheers in the background when Kevin went down the other night (not to wish harm or suffering on any one player but for the prospect of more losing to get that higher draft pick).

My new term for tankers is TUBE FANS.

TUBE FANS are those who only watch on TV, perhaps in another state or country, perhaps in North Natomas, and thus have various measures of detachment from their supposedly "beloved" team. As a result, it is much easier for them to consistently root for their team to lose.

The reasoning here is that if the tankers were sitting in Arco, and they really loved their team as they profess, they could not root against them. They would get excited by great plays by the Kings, and they would be ecstatic if their team pulled out a win.

But, due to remoteness, they cannot be there. Or, if in the Sacramento area, cannot afford it or, due to bandwagonism, refuse to be there. The tankers are in these groups.

In the end, I would rather not sit through another miserable season like last year's only to get some percentage shot at a decent draft pick (however you define decent). Rather, I would opt to be competitive, hope for young player development along the way, have a shot at the playoffs and make them, even if we get bounced in the first round. I'll take the odds of winning in the first round, rather than suck for 6 long months. And then I will hope that our GM, whom I have lost some faith in too lately, can change us for the better via trades, FA pick-ups, and what draft picks he has at his disposal.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I may be going out on a limb here, but I do not see the current ownership or management as willing to trade all the tallent (not nec. vets) for youth or draft picks. In fact GP has more of a history of trading away picks. You may be correct in your thinking, but I think GP has a different idea of how to make this happen. And for better or worse, it does not include being a loser...

Then that's his failure; as I stated before, losing in the short term does not equate to being a loser if your long term goals are to develop your young players.

When you have a strong nucleus that a championship-caliber team can be built around, which we had at one point, you can get away with trading away prospects and draft picks. When you do not have a strong nucleus, which we do not, in my opinion, trading away prospects is cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

[VF21]

I expect the players to play as hard as they can. I expect the coach to coach the team with the intent to win. I expect the GM, however, to do what is in the best interests of the team in the long term, which is not necessarily (and is not, in this case, in my opinion) winning in the short term. If that means getting rid of "all the good players," then so be it.

As odd as it may seem, I think I finally understand where you're coming from. I may not necessarily agree with "getting rid of 'all the good players'" but I can respect your viewpoint.

I don't know if I've been dense or if this is the first time you've spelled it out in just that way, but I feel like I have a lightbulb over my head.

 

[VF21]

I think I heard some tanker cheers in the background when Kevin went down the other night (not to wish harm or suffering on any one player but for the prospect of more losing to get that higher draft pick).

Considering the number of Jazz jerseys in the crowd, I strongly suspect you heard Utah fans.

 

[Mozart]

Good points, y'all

Slim Citrus, Glenn, Kingzrool, et. al.,


Good points, y'all and a lot of food for thought.


I appreciate the extra information that deepens my understanding of drafts, free agencies and so on, as I'm rather new to this stuff. I'm not doing any "shenanigans"; however, as I'm learning as I read/post along.


But if any of you talk to me about forestry, the Illuminati (Rothschilds, Rockefellers, House of Windsor, etc), the shadow gov't, legal/Law information, new sciences, the 2012 phenomenon, etc, I'm pretty knowledgeable in those areas, as I have studied them extensively and have contacts who, in turn, have contacts with direct connections to sources of hidden--but very much real--information that would blow your minds, but, sadly, none of that can be shared here in these forums, not that I can blame any of you for that. It's just the way it is.


If you PM me, I can share urls with you that would simply blow your minds, otherwise, I'm fully enjoying my little bit of entertainment with the Kings, beit watching them and participating in this board while I have a 'lil bit of free time to play around before things get busy again for me.


In any case, I'll always root for them Kings to win games, no matter what.


The deep knowledge of the game of basketball shared by many of you saves me a lot of time doing my own research, so, for this, I thank all of you who post your basketball information and POVs.


.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Reading those who have the tanker philosophy here and very often revel in our team's losses and bemoan the wins is very disappointing. And especially so early in the season to start with the tanker chants. I certainly understand where tankers are coming from, and their claim that they alone have the long view to success, but my opinion is that it is very misplaced.

I don't "revel" in the losses or "bemoan" the wins. The biggest difference in how I am a fan now and how I was a fan before is that I no longer "bask" in the "glow" of winning, or "wallow" in the "misery" of losing. For the two and a half hours that the game is on, I cheer for the Kings just as intensely as I always have. As soon as the game is over, however, I snap out of it. I am a real fan, and I do root for this team, but I no longer live and die for this team. If the game ends at 0115, at 0117 my emotions are no longer a factor. I'm not a fan with my heart so much as I am a fan with my head. And, AFAIC, my head knows better than my heart does.

Are we rebuilding now or not? I think we are. Just look at minutes for young players compared with the last.

To try to argue that this team is rebuilding is really stretching the definition of the word rebuild. For the past three years, Petrie has signed middling free agent after middling free agent to compliment a laughable "core" of players that is not good enough on their own to carry middling free agents anywhere; that is not rebuilding. Seven of the twelve players on the active roster are twenty-eight or older, and only three players under the age of twenty-eight get as much as fifteen minutes a game; that's not rebuilding, either. For several seasons now, we have had a precipitous lack of defense and rebounding. In all the draft picks and free agent signings we've made here in the last few years, the two things that have yet to be addressed on this team are defense and rebounding. Yet another sign of a team not rebuilding.

True, we have a whole ton of very bad signs, including NO road wins to date and our typically stinky front line play, but how in the world can this sucky team with its sucky front line be 7-10 without 2 key starters for 7 games and 1 key starter for all 17? I mean...really?

We had a saying in my youth: all money ain't good money. How did the Kings have the "best record in the league*" without Chris Webber in 2003-04? Smoke and mirrors, that's how. Benefit of an advantageous early schedule... People tend to overlook that we're still only 4-3 against wining teams at home, and 4-7 against winning teams overall, so let's not pretend that we're playing above our level. We're playing precisely at our level... which, unfortunately, is squarely in mediocrity-ville.

My new term for tankers is TUBE FANS.

....

In the end, I would rather not sit through another miserable season like last year's only to get some percentage shot at a decent draft pick (however you define decent). Rather, I would opt to be competitive, hope for young player development along the way, have a shot at the playoffs and make them, even if we get bounced in the first round. I'll take the odds of winning in the first round, rather than suck for 6 long months.

I have three problems with this attitude:

1) We are NOT competitive.
2) We are NOT developing young players (Theus is playing the same two young players that Musselman did, and really not anyone else)
3) We do NOT have a shot at the playoffs.

 

[1kingzfan]

Slim--- All very good points, as usual.

I guess my biggest thing here is that, although I sound critical of TUBE FANS, I am really more lacking an understanding of what they are really thinking and how they could possibly feel the way they do. Your replies gave me a little more insight, if they reflect the thoughts of others that prefer we go the route that leads to a possible high draft pick.

 

[Jerryaki]

my question to people who want the team to make the playoffs is: how does this team get better for next year??? just...how?

our vets have very low trade value. a team needing to make the final move for a title push may take a flier for artest at the deadline. or bibby. but that's it. no one wants brad, KT, reef, or moore. what quality player would we be able to get in exchange for this mish mosh of talent? the only way to get a quality player is to trade one of our younger players, and should we really be doing that?

we're capped out for a couple more years, so we're not picking up a quality free agent either. add to that the difficulty of having a dilapidated roster and playing in a small market, and when we actually do have money to spend, the chances of attracting a star free agent is still somewhat dicey.

which leaves the draft. and if you're going to draft (replace that phrase with "acquire an asset"), why why WHY would you not want to get the highest pick possible??? i've asked this before and have yet to hear an answer, if you don't think the draft is the end all and be all (which it isn't), wouldn't you at least want to get the highest pick possible to trade for an EVEN BETTER player from another team??????

going for the playoffs and letting the chips fall where they may have gotten us to this point. i don't want any more of it. i want general management to freakin' manage this team's future.

 

[kupman]

I expect the players to play as hard as they can. I expect the coach to coach the team with the intent to win. I expect the GM, however, to do what is in the best interests of the team in the long term, which is not necessarily (and is not, in this case, in my opinion) winning in the short term. If that means getting rid of "all the good players," then so be it.

EDIT - Let me put it like this: I'd give anything short of my first born to trade our roster wholesale for Portland's.

As odd as it may seem, I think I finally understand where you're coming from. I may not necessarily agree with "getting rid of 'all the good players'" but I can respect your viewpoint.

I don't know if I've been dense or if this is the first time you've spelled it out in just that way, but I feel like I have a lightbulb over my head.

I hope that you can help me understand. As I see it, the 5 players on the floor will play with the intent to win. The coach will coach to win, especially given that he is trying to establish himself as an NBA coach. The GM will do the best he can to put a good team together, both for today and the future.

Would it be nice to get rid of Miller, K9, SAR, Artest and Bibby? Sure....but who wants them. Who wants them at the expense of giving us either young potential or expiring contracts of crusty vets? Should we just buy all these guys out and play with 7 -8 players on the roster? Should the GM tell Reggie to suit these guys-up, but never let them play? I am just not sure what you are supposing that the GM should be doing differently.

At another level, I feel that any hint of not trying to win games is in direct contrast of the spirit of the game. That goes for the players all the way up to the owners.

 

[Kingster]

This is a very good discussion.

Reading those who have the tanker philosophy here and very often revel in our team's losses and bemoan the wins is very disappointing. And especially so early in the season to start with the tanker chants. I certainly understand where tankers are coming from, and their claim that they alone have the long view to success, but my opinion is that it is very misplaced.

We want to lose the max games possible so that we have some % chance at a top 3 pick? I would rather accept ther low odds of a first round playoff success.

So let me get this straight. You would prefer taking a bet on the current Kings roster able to 1) get into the playoffs, and 2) winning the first round playoff series, than 3) getting a potential superstar in the draft? That implies that you really believe that we can get into the playoffs and win the first series? Are you serious? We have a very remote chance of getting into the playoffs as an 8th seed. And then if you get you're wish and are deliriously happy with the 8th seed you think you can beat the 1st seed? In other words, you think we can be like Golden State was last year and beat a Dallas. So what do you think happens the following year? - the Kings win the NBA Championship?

Are we rebuilding now or not? I think we are. Just look at minutes for young players compared with the last

First, I don't see rebuilding as a relative thing. You either do it, or you don't, you don't do a little bit more than the next guy. I see very few minutes for Hawes and J Williams. Theus, like you, wants to get that 8th seed, and he will play every veteran every minute necessary to get that 8th seed. If you want to call that rebuilding, keep in mind that Petrie calls it, "reburbishing".

True, we have a whole ton of very bad signs, including NO road wins to date and our typically stinky front line play, but how in the world can this sucky team with its sucky front line be 7-10 without 2 key starters for 7 games and 1 key starter for all 17? I mean...really?.

Just look at the schedule. Lots of home games, and I think we've had one back to back. Plenty of time for practice. No grueling schedule - yet.

As Kingzrool has stated, how you go about tanking is very unclear, and no one has ever had a decent answer here as to how to accomplish it, especially with 80% of the season to go. But that issue is irrelevant, simply because it will not happen.

I'll give you an answer: Trade Artest and Bibby by the February trade deadlinem for picks and/or young talent. That same answer applies to last year, and the year before that. Another answer is to not sign 32 year old Miki to a MLE. Rebuilding does not = signing 32 year old Mike to MLE. What's so unclear about that?

My only question is this: Do any of you tankers sit in Arco to watch the games on any regular basis?

I would bet that none of the tankers do...not a one.

I mean, how could you? Sit there and root against your team? Curse every great Kings' play? Stomp your feet over every wonderful shot? Walk out angry when "your" team makes a few plays at the end and closes out an unlikely win? And then, if you happen to have paid to view games at $80, $100, or in my case, $250 per game for a pair of seats and parking, how could you go there and pray for tanking?.

Of course I don't go to the games. Why would I pay to watch a team built for mediocrity ad infinitum? Would I go there to route for them to lose. NO. Would I go there to route for Miki Moore? Hell no. What I do route for at home is for Hawes to get the most pt possible, along with Garcia, Douby, and JW. I also route for the youngsters to get better and better. And I do route for Artest to do incredibly well so that he can be traded by the February trade deadline. Do I route for the team to win, or to lose? YES. What I really route for is for Petrie to FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY to actually rebuild this team with athletic young talent. THEN I'll go Arco and route for the wins. Then I can finally be and only be Dr Jeckle. And if they go for .300 I could care less. I want to see the potential for greatness, not a nice little team that has no prayer of ever going all the way. This team right now is not being rebuilt for the possibility of greatness - it's being molded to yield the most stable income stream for the Maloofs. If you're happy to route for mediocrity, good for you. But you're not willing to admit that. You're not routing for mediocrity, you're routing for the delusional goal of winning a first round playoff series against a 1 seed. Who's kidding who?

 

[Kingzrool]

my question to people who want the team to make the playoffs is: how does this team get better for next year??? just...how?

If Sac is playing with passion and the Coach is doing a good job, quality free agents will be more likely to sign on. You create a momentum and you do it through free agency and trades. I am not saying this is the best way, but is a way. And it is the way that GP is doing it.

And yeah you need cap room, it will be coming.

 

[Jerryaki]

I am not saying this is the best way, but is a way.

bingo. that's in the "well, we're doing something" camp. there is a better way, and that's to focus on long term success. how's our passion, coaching ability, and momentum been at attracting free agents over the past few years?

 

[Jerryaki]

If Sac is playing with passion and the Coach is doing a good job, quality free agents will be more likely to sign on.

using the hoopshype salaries as a rough approximation, in the summer of 2009, when we have our cap space, so will: chicago, LA lakers, phoenix, philadelphia, portland, and utah.

name one thing that those franchises have that we don't in the summer of 2009. answer: actual potential to attract other star-caliber free agents.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

using the hoopshype salaries as a rough approximation, in the summer of 2009, when we have our cap space, so will: chicago, LA lakers, phoenix, philadelphia, portland, and utah.

name one thing that those franchises have that we don't in the summer of 2009. answer: actual potential to attract other star-caliber free agents.

we can offer more $$$ and the maloofs will mow that players lawn

 

[Jerryaki]

we can offer more $$$ and the maloofs will mow that players lawn

free agent X: i don't know, it's only a few million more, but those cowbells and that old arena, and...hang on! the owners will mow my lawn? i'm there!!!

 

[Big Cuz 15]

free agent X: i don't know, it's only a few million more, but those cowbells and that old arena, and...hang on! the owners will mow my lawn? i'm there!!!

that's the deal breaker there. the maloofs are wise businessmen. they know all players need landscaping for their big houses.

 

[RunNGun]

I think Sacramento does have at least one thing going for us. We've historically been willing to embrace players that other cities in the league would boo and b**** about. Webber, Artest, Wells? They've had problems everywhere they've gone, but once in Sacramento they played hard and done well. Reggie Theus has Artest's respect because Theus can always say "when you get over 19,000 points and 6,000 assists AND have had your own tv show, then you can have an opinion."

 

[Bricklayer]

At some point in the summer when this same thing came up, I had started working on a table to dispel some of the draft position doesn't matter myths. I finally completed it.

It is a table of the career acheivements of all the p[layers drafted at each draft position, #1, to #20, every year from 1985-2005 (left off the last couple of years ebcause they are mostly still too young to have done anything, left off after #20 because its more of the same and irrelevant to us, and hence a lot more work for nothing). The #s before the / are the number of different players having achieved the particular mark/honor, the numbers after the slash the total number of times it has been achieved by all the players in that group -- i.e. 3/12 means that 3 different players combined to acheive whatever it is (let's say All Star games) 12 times over their careers.

Note the wonderful prospects of getting an impact player if you do actually make the playoffs and get to pick 16-20. Note also the huge jump in achievement at about the #5 pick on to #1. By the time you hit #1, 75% of the players drafted there will make the All Star team and/or score 20 at some point in their career. Byt the time you hit 19-20, only 1 in every 20 will. Teams miss, but the big studs rarely slide far. The biggest exception draft position is pick #13 - but it is an exception only because of 2 players -- both Kobe and Karl Malone slid to #13 as likely the two best players of the last 25 years to slide oout of the Top 10, and are responsible for virtually all of those numbers.

Also note, the 30+ pt column turned out to be too rare to be useful, the 9 assist mark I think was a little too high, so again small sample size dooomed any trends. And I was mistakent hat all defensive team results would be easily accessible all the back for the last 25 years, and so I just punted. Might try to fill that in eventually. Was pretty sure there were a couple of draft posiitons in the teens where there were no players who were ever on an all defense team, but other than that just left ??s. Edit -- found + added the defensive info.

The players who scored in any of the categories, by draft position:
1 Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Yao Ming, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, Glenn Robinson, Chris Webber, Shaquille O'Neal, Larry Johnson, Derrick Coleman, Pervis Ellison, Danny Manning, David Robinson, Brad Daugherty, Patrick Ewing
2 Wayman Tisdale, Rik Smits, Gary Payton, Kenny Anderson, Alonzo Mourning, Jason Kidd, Antonio McDyess, Marcus Camby, Keith Van Horn, Mike Bibby, Steve Francis, Tyson Chandler, Emeka Okafor
3 Deron Williams, Ben Gordon, Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol, Baron Davis, Chauncey Billups, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Jerry Stackhouse, Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, Christian Laettner, Sean Elliot, Charles Smith, Benoit Benjamin
4 Xavier McDaniel, Chuck Person, Glen Rice, Ditkembe Mutumbo, Jimmy Jackson, Jamal Mashburn, Donyell Marshall, Rasheed Wallace, Stephon Marbury, Antawn Jamison, Lamar Odom, Chris Bosh
5 Dwayne Wade, Jason Richardson, Vince Carter, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Juwann Howard, Isaiah Rider, LaPhonso Ellis, Steve Smith, Kendall Gill, Mitch Richmond, Scottie Pippen
6 Hersey Hawkins, Tom Gugliotta, Antoine Walker, Wally Szczerbiak
7 Rip Hamilton, Damon Stoudamire, Kevin Johnson, Roy Tarpley, Chris Mullin, Kirk Hinrich
8 Detlef Shrempf, Ron Harper, Olden Polynice, Vin Baker, Brian Grant, Larry Hughes, Andre Miller
9 Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady, Clarence Weatherspoon, Rony Seikaly, Charles Oakley, Derrick McKey
10 Horace Grant, Pooh Richardson, Eddie Jones, Kurt Thomas, Erick Dampier, Danny Fortson, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Caron Butler
11 Allan Houston, Terrel Brandon, Tyrone Hill, Reggie Miller
12 Mugsy Bogues, Mookie Blaylock
13 Richard Jefferson, Corey Maggette, Kobe Bryant, Jalen Rose, Dale Davis, Loy Vaught, Karl Malone
14 Dan Majerle, Tim Hardaway, Peja Stojakovic, Troy Murphy
15 Al Jefferson, Steve Nash, Gary Grant
16 Dana Barros, Brevin Knight, Ron Artest
17 Jermaine O'Neal, Shawn Kemp, Doug Christie
18 Joe Dumars, Mark Jackson, Theo Ratliff
19 Zach Randolph, Jamaal Magloire, Rod Strickland
20 Zydrunas Ilguaskas

 

[kupman]

I don't think that anyone has said "draft position is irrelevant."

 

[Mozart]

Wow, thank you

At some point in the summer when this same thing came up, I had started working on a table to dispel some of the draft position doesn't matter myths. I finally completed it.

Wow, Bricklayer. Hats off to you for doing this.

 

[Jerryaki]

I don't think that anyone has said "draft position is irrelevant."

what's been said then is:

pushing to make the playoffs/making the playoffs then getting booted >>> good draft position

you've got to pick one or the other, it's not like you can get both (without some miraculous trade). brick's analysis shows why he's solidly in the better draft position camp. where's the analysis around why we should go for another first round exit?

 

[GoGoGadget]

I have decided to create a universal quiz that can be reused every time yet another iteration of this same tiresome topic pops up again:

1) Do you believe that this team, as currently constructed, can compete for a championship this year?

2) Are you under the impression that you will either no longer be a fan or not live long enough to see any more seasons of basketball after this one?

3) What would you sacrifice to watch 83-88 Kings basketball games this season, as opposed to 82? Does it matter that 4 of the extra 4-6 games will be losses for your team?

4) Who would you rather have drafted this past year, Greg Oden, or Spenser Hawes?

5) If you are extremely overweight and on a diet with a goal of returning to your high school weight, do you eagerly seek out that extra piece of pie anyway?

6) If your answer to the above question is yes, is it because you choose to deny the extra food will set back your diet, because you lack self confidence that the diet can succeed, or because you live for the moment and have trouble focusing on long term goals?

7) If you are heavily in debt and have already maxed out several credit cards and are having to use a new one to make payments on the old one, and you happen to see a hot dress/cool jersey/whatever in the window of a store, do you go on in and slap it onto that new credit card anyway?

8) If your answer to the above question is yes, is it because you refuse to believe that adding more debt will slow down or make it impossible for you to work out of your current debt, because you do not believe you can ever escape your debt and are determined to have the good things no matter the consequences, or because you live in the moment and have trouble focusing on long term goals and responsibilities?

9) If you are engaged to the man/woman of your dreams, and have hopes of living happily ever after with them, plans for a house, kids, vacations, whips, chains, handcuffs, you name it, and one night at a bar you encounter a decent looking, but far from handsome/beautiful member of the opposite sex who you think you might be able to sleep with that night with a little work/flirtation, do you go ahead and put the moves on that person?

10) If your answer to the above question is yes, is it because you think/hope you can get away with it with no consequences, because you secretly do not believe that you and your fiance will live happily ever after, or because you live in the moment and have trouble focusing on long term goals/happiness when confronted by instant gratification.

1) No.

2) No.

3) Nothing. That is irrelevant.

4 - 10) n/a

. . .

Well, I figured someone should answer Brick's quiz after he went to the trouble of writing it.

 

[Kingster]

what's been said then is:

pushing to make the playoffs/making the playoffs then getting booted >>> good draft position

you've got to pick one or the other, it's not like you can get both (without some miraculous trade). brick's analysis shows why he's solidly in the better draft position camp. where's the analysis around why we should go for another first round exit?

Bingo.

 

[Kingster]

Thanks, Brick. That is one heckuva table you have there. If you graphed it it would show a cliff after pick #5. The next cliff seems to be at #15. Isn't that close to the cutoff for a playoff team?

 

[Cal-Kings]

The players who scored in any of the categories, by draft position:
1 Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Yao Ming, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, Glenn Robinson, Chris Webber, Shaquille O'Neal, Larry Johnson, Derrick Coleman, Pervis Ellison, Danny Manning, David Robinson, Brad Daugherty, Patrick Ewing
2 Wayman Tisdale, Rik Smits, Gary Payton, Kenny Anderson, Alonzo Mourning, Jason Kidd, Antonio McDyess, Marcus Camby, Keith Van Horn, Mike Bibby, Steve Francis, Tyson Chandler, Emeka Okafor
3 Deron Williams, Ben Gordon, Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol, Baron Davis, Chauncey Billups, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Jerry Stackhouse, Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, Christian Laettner, Sean Elliot, Charles Smith, Benoit Benjamin
4 Xavier McDaniel, Chuck Person, Glen Rice, Ditkembe Mutumbo, Jimmy Jackson, Jamal Mashburn, Donyell Marshall, Rasheed Wallace, Stephon Marbury, Antawn Jamison, Lamar Odom, Chris Bosh
5 Dwayne Wade, Jason Richardson, Vince Carter, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Juwann Howard, Isaiah Rider, LaPhonso Ellis, Steve Smith, Kendall Gill, Mitch Richmond, Scottie Pippen
6 Hersey Hawkins, Tom Gugliotta, Antoine Walker, Wally Szczerbiak
7 Rip Hamilton, Damon Stoudamire, Kevin Johnson, Roy Tarpley, Chris Mullin, Kirk Hinrich
8 Detlef Shrempf, Ron Harper, Olden Polynice, Vin Baker, Brian Grant, Larry Hughes, Andre Miller
9 Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady, Clarence Weatherspoon, Rony Seikaly, Charles Oakley, Derrick McKey
10 Horace Grant, Pooh Richardson, Eddie Jones, Kurt Thomas, Erick Dampier, Danny Fortson, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Caron Butler
11 Allan Houston, Terrel Brandon, Tyrone Hill, Reggie Miller
12 Mugsy Bogues, Mookie Blaylock
13 Richard Jefferson, Corey Maggette, Kobe Bryant, Jalen Rose, Dale Davis, Loy Vaught, Karl Malone
14 Dan Majerle, Tim Hardaway, Peja Stojakovic, Troy Murphy
15 Al Jefferson, Steve Nash, Gary Grant
16 Dana Barros, Brevin Knight, Ron Artest
17 Jermaine O'Neal, Shawn Kemp, Doug Christie
18 Joe Dumars, Mark Jackson, Theo Ratliff
19 Zach Randolph, Jamaal Magloire, Rod Strickland
20 Zydrunas Ilguaskas

You put in a lot of work. But I think it's probably a little obvious (or should be) that the higher the draft pick, the better the player and the more likely that player will play well in the NBA.

But my question would be, for your next task (should you choose to accept it. ) would be to take all those top players, and list which ones got their team a championship vs. those that had great careers but never got a ring.

Certainly some of those players still have a bright future.

But looking through the list at just the #1s,
1 Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Yao Ming, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, Glenn Robinson, Chris Webber, Shaquille O'Neal, Larry Johnson, Derrick Coleman, Pervis Ellison, Danny Manning, David Robinson, Brad Daugherty, Patrick Ewing

Of those, I'm sure of Duncan, O'Neal, Robinson, and maybe a few others. But that's not even half of those guys.

Just another perspective. I'm all for hoping for top draft picks. I've only ever been concerned that it can be an all or nothing risk for one player when it's a team game.