Player Averages predictions

[Entity]

Bored and was thinking about our team this year and how it might go. This is my predictions of what the guys will average pts reb ast

Fox 16 4 8
Hield 19 5 2
Barnes 14 6 2
Bagley 18 9 2
Dedmond 10 8 1
Bogie 15 3 5
Joseph 6 2 3
Giles 10 6 3
Ariza 8 3 1
Bejlecia 5 4 1 DNP’s
Yogi 3 1 1 DNP’s
Holmes 4 4 1 DNP’s
Rest is mostly DNP’s

 

[sactowndog]

Bored and was thinking about our team this year and how it might go. This is my predictions of what the guys will average pts reb ast

Fox 16 4 8
Hield 19 5 2
Barnes 14 6 2
Bagley 18 9 2
Dedmond 10 8 1
Bogie 15 3 5
Joseph 6 2 3
Giles 10 6 3
Ariza 8 3 1
Bejlecia 5 4 1 DNP’s
Yogi 3 1 1 DNP’s
Holmes 4 4 1 DNP’s
Rest is mostly DNP’s

So you think a number of players will be worse?
https://stats.nba.com/players/tradi...9&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612758

 

[kingsboi]

I think Bagley will be the Kings' top scorer for the season in terms of PPG

 

[sactowndog]

In points just to maintain our record it’s going to have to look like:

Hield: 23 ppg, up from 20.7, has to draw more than 2.4 foul shots a game

Fox: 20 ppg, up from 17.3, improves percentages from the line (72.7) and 3 (37.1)

Bagley: 21 ppg, up from 14.9, improves with minutes 19.3 per 36, shooting efficiency

Barnes: 14 ppg, same from 14.3, focus on rebounds and defense

Bogi: 17 ppg, improve shooting by playing off the ball

Dedmon: 11 ppg, same from 10.8

Giles: 9 ppg, up slightly from 7

Bjelicia: 6 ppg, down from 9 as his minutes to to Bagley

Joseph: 6 ppg, flat, he needs to play D and get the ball to Giles and Bogi

Ariza: 8 ppg, down from 12 less than 34 minutes

 

[burekijogurt]

I like the optimism . if im doing the math right we will be averaging between 128 and 135 PPG! For reference, the Bucks led the league last year at 118 PPG

 

[DesertFox]

I'm not sure how it will break down, but Hield/Fox/Bagley should combine for 60+,
Barnes/Bogi 30+, and Dedmon/Joseph for 15, and the rest will be spot minute players for another 10+.

I don't see mich changes for the secondary stats. Hopefully Bags and Giles have upticks in rebound rates, anything else is gravy.

 

[Entity]

So you think a number of players will be worse?
https://stats.nba.com/players/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612758

Just because ppg drops a bit for some does not mean they got worse. Just means you are incorporating gains for others. Bagley will be a focal point in the front court that we did not have last year. Bogi and Giles both increase in point. 1 point each for fox and Buddy is not a huge deal as I believe attempts go down for them.

 

[jcwkings]

Just because ppg drops a bit for some does not mean they got worse. Just means you are incorporating gains for others. Bagley will be a focal point in the front court that we did not have last year. Bogi and Giles both increase in point. 1 point each for fox and Buddy is not a huge deal as I believe attempts go down for them.

Fox and Buddy shouldn't have attempts go down, in fact both must shoot more.

 

[Entity]

In points just to maintain our record it’s going to have to look like:

Hield: 23 ppg, up from 20.7, has to draw more than 2.4 foul shots a game

Fox: 20 ppg, up from 17.3, improves percentages from the line (72.7) and 3 (37.1)

Bagley: 21 ppg, up from 14.9, improves with minutes 19.3 per 36, shooting efficiency

Barnes: 14 ppg, same from 14.3, focus on rebounds and defense

Bogi: 17 ppg, improve shooting by playing off the ball

Dedmon: 11 ppg, same from 10.8

Giles: 9 ppg, up slightly from 7

Bjelicia: 6 ppg, down from 9 as his minutes to to Bagley

Joseph: 6 ppg, flat, he needs to play D and get the ball to Giles and Bogi

Ariza: 8 ppg, down from 12 less than 34 minutes

So we have 3 players average over 20? Steph Kay and Durant did it in 2017 with only one more person getting over 10. That was draymomd with 11. So we can match that with Bagley, fox, Hield and dedmond. But wait we are also gonna throw in bogi and Barnes getting 17 and 14. After those players GS had 2 players get over 6. We will have 4

 

[Entity]

Fox and Buddy shouldn't have attempts go down, in fact both must shoot more.

They will drop

 

[bajaden]

In points just to maintain our record it’s going to have to look like:

Hield: 23 ppg, up from 20.7, has to draw more than 2.4 foul shots a game

Fox: 20 ppg, up from 17.3, improves percentages from the line (72.7) and 3 (37.1)

Bagley: 21 ppg, up from 14.9, improves with minutes 19.3 per 36, shooting efficiency

Barnes: 14 ppg, same from 14.3, focus on rebounds and defense

Bogi: 17 ppg, improve shooting by playing off the ball

Dedmon: 11 ppg, same from 10.8

Giles: 9 ppg, up slightly from 7

Bjelicia: 6 ppg, down from 9 as his minutes to to Bagley

Joseph: 6 ppg, flat, he needs to play D and get the ball to Giles and Bogi

Ariza: 8 ppg, down from 12 less than 34 minutes

I pretty much agree with your analysis. I think the two dark horses, or mystery horses if you will are Dedmon and Giles. Giles could have a breakout season. I think what we've gotten from him so far is just the tip of the iceberg. Were talking about a player that was the number on ranked high school player in the country prior to his injuries. A player who didn't play much, if any basketball for over two years. Last year was a shake the rust off, and regain confidence in his body year. So I wouldn't be surprised if he exploded this year.

Dedmon could end up scoring more than we anticipate simply by being used differently. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but if the Kings use him more as a catch and shoot player, I could easily see him scoring 14 to 15 pts a game. Of course it all comes down to minutes, and ironically, Giles and Dedmon will probably be competing with each other for those minutes. Nice problem to have though.

 

[Entity]

I pretty much agree with your analysis. I think the two dark horses, or mystery horses if you will are Dedmon and Giles. Giles could have a breakout season. I think what we've gotten from him so far is just the tip of the iceberg. Were talking about a player that was the number on ranked high school player in the country prior to his injuries. A player who didn't play much, if any basketball for over two years. Last year was a shake the rust off, and regain confidence in his body year. So I wouldn't be surprised if he exploded this year.

Dedmon could end up scoring more than we anticipate simply by being used differently. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but if the Kings use him more as a catch and shoot player, I could easily see him scoring 14 to 15 pts a game. Of course it all comes down to minutes, and ironically, Giles and Dedmon will probably be competing with each other for those minutes. Nice problem to have though.

So you think we got 3 20 pt guys and 3 14-17pt guys on the same team as well as Giles breaking which assume would have to be at least 10? Wow Kings definitely never seen that before we had Webber and Peja both get 20 but next closest was bibby with 14. 14 is 6th best on this years team apparently lol. 82-0

 

[jcwkings]

They will drop

If that happens then the team won't be that good. Buddy Hield and Fox shouldn't shoot less so that Trevor Ariza can jack up some shots.

 

[Entity]

If that happens then the team won't be that good. Buddy Hield and Fox shouldn't shoot less so that Trevor Ariza can jack up some shots.

Wow straight to the straw man? So early. I actually didn’t mention Ariza at all. They will drop because of Bagley and Bogie and Barnes. You don’t get 3 guys getting 14+ without the other 2 coming down a bit. So you really went straight to the 9th man as the guy that I was thinking would get more shots? That must have sounded so good in your head

 

[SacTownKid]

If that happens then the team won't be that good. Buddy Hield and Fox shouldn't shoot less so that Trevor Ariza can jack up some shots.

Agreed. I said it last year, an open shot isn't necessarily always a good shot if it's the wrong player taking them. Team offense is great and all but taking shots from your best players won't get this team anywhere especially at a point in time where the league has gone from one or two super teams to a bunch of teams with super duos and a condensed talent pool. Right now the offense belongs to three players, Fox, Buddy, and Bagley with Bogdan and Harrison as your glues/bench production. Vlade went with depth, maybe overly so, in the offseason and any attempts to get production value out of them is an unwise move and it will only spread the talent and offensive capabilities too thin. At some point you are going to have to go toe to toe with the Kawhi/PG13's, Harden/Westbrook's, LeBron/AD's, etc and you aren't going to do that with a 13 man rotation.

 

[Entity]

Agreed. I said it last year, an open shot isn't necessarily always a good shot if it's the wrong player taking them. Team offense is great and all but taking shots from your best players won't get this team anywhere especially at a point in time where the league has gone from one or two super teams to a bunch of teams with super duos and a condensed talent pool. Right now the offense belongs to three players, Fox, Buddy, and Bagley with Bogdan and Harrison as your glues/bench production. Vlade went with depth, maybe overly so, in the offseason and any attempts to get production value out of them is an unwise move and it will only spread the talent and offensive capabilities too thin. At some point you are going to have to go toe to toe with the Kawhi/PG13's, Harden/Westbrook's, LeBron/AD's, etc and you aren't going to do that with a 13 man rotation.

You are just gonna keep the Ariza thing going as if anybody was talking about Ariza? So strange.

 

[SacTownKid]

Wow straight to the straw man? So early. I actually didn’t mention Ariza at all. They will drop because of Bagley and Bogie and Barnes. You don’t get 3 guys getting 14+ without the other 2 coming down a bit. So you really went straight to the 9th man as the guy that I was thinking would get more shots? That must have sounded so good in your head

On the season last year the highest FGA per game player the Kings had was Buddy and he was like 24th in the league. That's way too low. I don't think you can have a team with your leading shot taker averaging that unless you have a literal All-Star or Olympic level squad from top to bottom. That means you're creating shots that are falling right into the opposing teams hands.

 

[SacTownKid]

You are just gonna keep the Ariza thing going as if anybody was talking about Ariza? So strange.

Where did I mention anything about Ariza? The Kings added veteran depth this summer and as I said, gearing offense towards them if that's in the cards would be a mistake if it comes at the sacrifice of your best players games. I don't care if it's Ariza, Joseph, Dedmon, or Col. Sanders. It is what it is.

 

[Entity]

On the season last year the highest FGA per game player the Kings had was Buddy and he was like 24th in the league. That's way too low. I don't think you can have a team with your leading shot taker averaging that unless you have a literal All-Star or Olympic level squad from top to bottom. That means you're creating shots that are falling right into the opposing teams hands.

You also don’t get 2 other guys getting 20 ppg then antiheroes 3 getting 14ppg. That’s ridiculous. Only 31 players in the entire league averages 20ppg last year. Several teams didn’t even have one. And now we are gonna have THREE? Bagley, giles, Barnes, bogi do not go up without fox and buddy coming down. Will not happen.

 

[Entity]

Where did I mention anything about Ariza? The Kings added veteran depth this summer and as I said, gearing offense towards them if that's in the cards would be a mistake if it comes at the sacrifice of your best players games. I don't care if it's Ariza, Joseph, Dedmon, or Col. Sanders. It is what it is.

But your arguments are skipping over 3,4,5 and 6 getting more shots I’m not at all talking about 7,8,9. In fact I had them at like 4-8 ppg

 

[SacTownKid]

You also don’t get 2 other guys getting 20 ppg then antiheroes 3 getting 14ppg. That’s ridiculous. Only 31 players in the entire league averages 20ppg last year. Several teams didn’t even have one. And now we are gonna have THREE? Bagley, giles, Barnes, bogi do not go up without fox and buddy coming down. Will not happen.

We've seen this team with those same 3,4, and 5's. I think what the team did in March in terms of averages is close to there. It really comes down to minutes as well. In March you finally had some players being played like legit starters:

https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/sac/split/44

Now imagine Bagley playing 34 mpg instead of 26. If you dip Willies role down a tick with a spot shooter like Dedmon taking his place then you have more opportunity to spread to your main weapons.

 

[Entity]

We

We've seen this team with those same 3,4, and 5's. I think what the team did in March in terms of averages is close to there. It really comes down to minutes as well. In March you finally had some players being played like legit starters:

https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/sac/split/44

Now imagine Bagley playing 34 mpg instead of 26. If you dip Willies role down a tick with a spot shooter like Dedmon taking his place then you have more opportunity to spread to your main weapons.

well yeah that’s about where I had them. Except bogi and Giles will increase. It’s not like I had them at 12. I said 18 and 19

 

[sactowndog]

I like the optimism . if im doing the math right we will be averaging between 128 and 135 PPG! For reference, the Bucks led the league last year at 118 PPG

Haha. Pace baby... yeah I might pull Bagley, Beli and Bogi back a bit. On the other hand, the team was poor in points per possession off Dead balls so it’s going to have to improve some.

 

[sactowndog]

Just because ppg drops a bit for some does not mean they got worse. Just means you are incorporating gains for others. Bagley will be a focal point in the front court that we did not have last year. Bogi and Giles both increase in point. 1 point each for fox and Buddy is not a huge deal as I believe attempts go down for them.

Yeah perhaps with Buddy but I would argue he has some growth left in drawing fouls. In Fox’s case, Dedmon will open the lane for him also so I expect he should improve also.

 

[sactowndog]

So we have 3 players average over 20? Steph Kay and Durant did it in 2017 with only one more person getting over 10. That was draymomd with 11. So we can match that with Bagley, fox, Hield and dedmond. But wait we are also gonna throw in bogi and Barnes getting 17 and 14. After those players GS had 2 players get over 6. We will have 4

I agree with the problem you mention. I think 3 over 20 is pretty possible but not enough shots to go around which shows the problem with Bogi. I’m not sure we can get him the shots he needs.

 

[sactowndog]

Wow straight to the straw man? So early. I actually didn’t mention Ariza at all. They will drop because of Bagley and Bogie and Barnes. You don’t get 3 guys getting 14+ without the other 2 coming down a bit. So you really went straight to the 9th man as the guy that I was thinking would get more shots? That must have sounded so good in your head

I agree with your premise.... but I don’t think Fox’s shots will drop. If anyone’s drops it’s going to be Barnes but he should get some efficient wide open 3’s which he can hit...

My increase was based on Buddy getting to the line and Fox being more efficient in his shots. I think your overall numbers are going to restrict Bogi’s attempts which gets back to my other question can we use him optimally.

 

[sactowndog]

With the pace the Kings play at they had the 2nd most attempts a game: 93.1. Luke wants to play faster this year and we have the depth to do it.

For free throw attempts we were 19th. With Fox and Bagley that could go up. It needs to go up because it limits the back court foul strategy.

On 3 point attempts we were 20th. Which again, I expect to see rise because we have better shooters. But Bagley and Buddy have to become better passers.

 

[Gary]

Fox will be 18/8/4
Hield will be 22/4/4
Barnes will be 15/7/3
Bagley will be 17/11/2/1 (block)
Dedmon will be 8/7/1/1 (block)

Bogi 15/5/3
Giles 10/6/2/1 (block)
Holmes 10/6/1/1 (block)
Ariza 8/2/2

 

[bajaden]

So you think we got 3 20 pt guys and 3 14-17pt guys on the same team as well as Giles breaking which assume would have to be at least 10? Wow Kings definitely never seen that before we had Webber and Peja both get 20 but next closest was bibby with 14. 14 is 6th best on this years team apparently lol. 82-0

No, but I think most of those players are probably capable of those numbers. Naturally it will depend on who gets the playing time and who doesn't. I do think the Kings are set up with players, and a playing style to score a lot of points, and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up being one of the top three scoring teams in the NBA. If so, then having three 20 pt scorers isn't out of the question and maybe two or three double digit scorers as well.

 

[bajaden]

Just because ppg drops a bit for some does not mean they got worse. Just means you are incorporating gains for others. Bagley will be a focal point in the front court that we did not have last year. Bogi and Giles both increase in point. 1 point each for fox and Buddy is not a huge deal as I believe attempts go down for them.

I think people need to remember that more shots isn't the only way to increase your scoring. The Warriors were 2nd in the league in scoring last season while the Kings were 9th, but the Warriors took fewer shot attempts than the Kings. It's called efficiency, and getting to the line more. Buddy can take the same amount of shots as last season, but get to the line 4 or 5 more times per game and easily score 23 pts a game.

Kevin Martin was a perfect example of how a player could score a lot of points on few shots. He was a master at getting to the line. Harden scores about a third of his points at the line, averaging 11.4 attempts a game, while Buddy averaged only 2.4 attempts. Not saying that's all going to happen, but that its possible.