Pick situation (split)

#91
The Pelicans are looking like an 10-12 pick while the Sixers may leapfrog the Kings and swap with them. Pelicans are not being helpful although getting a lesser pick is not the worst outcome.

This is looking more like a 7-9 and 11-12. Could be worse, as in only 1 pick. Kings might be able to get close to a top player at 1 position or at least a 2nd best player at that position in the draft. I'd like to see either a SF and PG 1st or SF and PF 2nd.

The sixers are not going to catch Minny or Charlotte so they will be at pick 7 (maybe 6 depending on NY) and we will swap with them. (In range for either Fox/Frank/Dennis/Monk)

Looking at strength of Schedule the Pelicans have the toughest schedule of Charlotte and Dallas. At worst the pick should be 11 but I think one of those teams ends the season with a better record and the pick lands at 10 in range of of either Bridges or Isaac.
 

Capt. Factorial

Cantry Member
Staff member
#92
Pick situation update with lottery outcomes, 3/20

If the season ended as of the games on 3/20, the Sixers would be in the 5th slot, the Kings would be in the 6th slot, and the Pelicans would be in the 9th slot, pre-lottery.

The Kings would not be in danger of losing their pick to Chicago. The Pelicans would have a 6.1% chance of winning one of three lotto spots, thus the Kings would have a 93.9% chance of having two first-round picks. The Kings chance of getting a top-3 pick (either 2 or 3) is 4%.

There would be 18 possible outcomes for the Kings (though 10 of these are extremely unlikely). In order of probability, rounded, and grouped:

Probable:
Picks 6 and 9: 56%
Picks 7 and 9: 20%
Picks 7 and 10: 10%

Might Happen:
Pick 7 only: 5%
Picks 3 and 9: 3%
Picks 8 and 10: 2%
Pick 8 only: 1%
Picks 2 and 9: 1%

Not Gonna Happen (less than 1%):
Picks 8 and 9
Picks 8 and 11

Really Not Gonna Happen (less than 0.1%):
Picks 3 and 10
Picks 2 and 10
Pick 9 only
Pick 3 only
Picks 9 and 10
Picks 9 and 11
Pick 2 only
Picks 9 and 12
 
#93
I like Fox - like getting a Mike Conley type player....his quickness is too intriguing to pass up - and essential for staying in front of guards on defense too. I'd guess he's at least as quick as Collison, and probably a better defender already. Fox and Bridges would be a good haul. Bridges reminds me of a lefty Paul Pierce - may not as good shooter, but as explosive.
 
#94
Here is how I see the final team rankings playing out. Back with our Lucky #7 that we seem to have pretty much every single year. At least we have pretty good drafting history at the 7 spot.

Final Record
14 Detroit Pistons 41 41
13 Chicago Bulls 39 43
12 Portland Trail Blazers 38 44
11 Dallas Mavericks 34 48
10 Charlotte Hornets 34 48
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 34 47
8 New Orleans Pelicans 33 49
7 Sacramento Kings 31 51
6 New York Knicks 30 52
5 Philadelphia 76ers 30 52
4 Orlando Magic 28 54
3 Phoenix Suns 24 58
2 Los Angeles Lakers 23 59
1 Brooklyn Nets 16 65
 
#95
Here is how I see the final team rankings playing out. Back with our Lucky #7 that we seem to have pretty much every single year. At least we have pretty good drafting history at the 7 spot.

Final Record
14 Detroit Pistons 41 41
13 Chicago Bulls 39 43
12 Portland Trail Blazers 38 44
11 Dallas Mavericks 34 48
10 Charlotte Hornets 34 48
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 34 47
8 New Orleans Pelicans 33 49
7 Sacramento Kings 31 51
6 New York Knicks 30 52
5 Philadelphia 76ers 30 52
4 Orlando Magic 28 54
3 Phoenix Suns 24 58
2 Los Angeles Lakers 23 59
1 Brooklyn Nets 16 65
I dont think the Kings make 31 wins. I think the Pelicans might be around 10 vice 8....many teams will have identical records like you show though I agree. Agreeing Kings will be 7 and get projecting Pelicans 10....if lucky 5-6 and 8. If unlucky, the Pelicans hit #3, and Kings get 8-10, with only one pick. Its actually better to have Pelicans win more and have a more assured pick at lower rank rather than them tanking and getting 3+ with nothing for the Kings.
 
#96
I dont think the Kings make 31 wins. I think the Pelicans might be around 10 vice 8....many teams will have identical records like you show though I agree. Agreeing Kings will be 7 and get projecting Pelicans 10....if lucky 5-6 and 8. If unlucky, the Pelicans hit #3, and Kings get 8-10, with only one pick. Its actually better to have Pelicans win more and have a more assured pick at lower rank rather than them tanking and getting 3+ with nothing for the Kings.
You think the Pelicans will go 6-6 in their last 12 games? That gets them to the 10 hole.
 
#97
You think the Pelicans will go 6-6 in their last 12 games? That gets them to the 10 hole.
It's possible but they have a tough schedule. The next week should show us where they end up. I think the Sixers end up with a better record then us but they are too far back from everyone else in front of them to catch so we should only slide 1 slot with their pick swap. New York is hot garbage so they should replace the Sixers in the standings. With that said I have our pick at 7 (6th if the Knicks win some games) after the swap and the Pelicans tied with Dallas and Charlotte for Pick 9 through 11. If we get lucky with the tie breakers we can land pick 9 from the pelicans.
 
#99
My bones tell me the 76ers will get top 3. As for the rest, if we get 3 good to great prospects I will be happy.Preferably a pg and sf.
I have a bad feeling the draft balls are kind this year to the Kings which means the Sixers say thank you very much to the Kings. The Sixer now have the "luxury" to win knowing the Kings will back them up.
Yes PG and SF.....trying to figure which position is of more need, and I think that's SF should be first followed by PG 2nd although if Fox is there, get him first I think. I wouldn't be completely upset with a PF either. Resign Lawson at value should be a goal also, and pay him decently as he's earned it.
 
Between the two, I prefer we go for an above average floor general first over the sf. Been too long since we have had our guards not be weak links. We need someone to grow executing Joergers playbook.

I always feel we will get screwed in any situation where it is remotely possible, so the ping pong balls hold no power over my optomism. It will play out and we will be able to really start targetting players knowing where we pick.
 
Sixers smashing the Magic today even without Okafor. At least they did not put this effort together earlier in the year or we might be looking at a pick in the teens.
 
That Sixers pick might be 10-11. It might hurt for us to end up with the 5th worst record. That swap will happen

They are balling
They did this earlier on in the season to then they came back to Earth. I haven't watched them I know they beat an IT less Celtics team but how are they piling up these wins right now?
 
They did this earlier on in the season to then they came back to Earth. I haven't watched them I know they beat an IT less Celtics team but how are they piling up these wins right now?
They have some good players - Saric/Covington/Holmes. McConnell is underrated (plays with heart). Rodriguez has been fine off the bench. But, I would say Brown has them playing well. Good, tough noses coach

But, looks like they will lose tonight, and my original post may be an overreaction
 
If the 6ers jump into top 3 then us being 5th or whatever wont matter. I know its unlikely but no use stressing about it yet.

I think Chicago finished 9th when they drafted Rose with the first pick. Stranger things..
 
They did this earlier on in the season to then they came back to Earth. I haven't watched them I know they beat an IT less Celtics team but how are they piling up these wins right now?
It would be interesting to compare the schedules of the Sixers to the Kings for the rest of the season. I know the Kings are in a rough stretch.
 
It would be interesting to compare the schedules of the Sixers to the Kings for the rest of the season. I know the Kings are in a rough stretch.
Sixers

@ Thunder
@ Bulls
@ Pacers
@ Nets
vs Hawks
@ Cavs
@ Raptors
vs Nets
vs Bulls
vs Bucks
vs Pacers
@ Knicks

Kings

vs Bucks
@ Warriors
@ Clippers
vs Grizzlies
vs Jazz
@ Pelicans
@ Wolves
vs Mavs
@ Lakers
vs Rockets
vs Suns
@ Clippers

I see us winning 2 or 3 games. Hopefully we win just the one against the Lakers. But we can beat Mavs and Suns. It's crucial for us to lose vs Pelicans and Wolves.
The Sixers can win 4 or 5 games. 5 more probably. They will finish at 31-51, we will be around 29/30.
 
I think the Sixers and Pelicans schedules are more important than ours. The Pelicans have 7 games against playoff teams, 3 against teams vying for the playoffs and then two gimmies against us and the Lakers.

We should all be rooting hard for the Sixers and Pels to lose, while rooting for the TWolves, Knicks and Magic to win. That Magic's overtime win vs the Sixers last night was really good for us. The Sixers are turning it up lately with Covington, Holmes, Okafor and Saric all playing well. They don't need to tank because they know they can just rely on our pick.
 
Here is how I see the final team rankings playing out. Back with our Lucky #7 that we seem to have pretty much every single year. At least we have pretty good drafting history at the 7 spot.

Final Record
14 Detroit Pistons 41 41
13 Chicago Bulls 39 43
12 Portland Trail Blazers 38 44
11 Dallas Mavericks 34 48
10 Charlotte Hornets 34 48
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 34 47
8 New Orleans Pelicans 33 49
7 Sacramento Kings 31 51
6 New York Knicks 30 52
5 Philadelphia 76ers 30 52
4 Orlando Magic 28 54
3 Phoenix Suns 24 58
2 Los Angeles Lakers 23 59
1 Brooklyn Nets 16 65
I think I'd try to trade up to #4 and take Fox if that's how it p
I think the Sixers and Pelicans schedules are more important than ours. The Pelicans have 7 games against playoff teams, 3 against teams vying for the playoffs and then two gimmies against us and the Lakers.

We should all be rooting hard for the Sixers and Pels to lose, while rooting for the TWolves, Knicks and Magic to win. That Magic's overtime win vs the Sixers last night was really good for us. The Sixers are turning it up lately with Covington, Holmes, Okafor and Saric all playing well. They don't need to tank because they know they can just rely on our pick.
They get our balls and their own... Still plenty of incentive to lose.
 
I think I'd try to trade up to #4 and take Fox if that's how it p

They get our balls and their own... Still plenty of incentive to lose.
As much as I like Fox, I'm not sure he's worth 2 first round picks to move up. There are quite a few good PGs in the top 12. After watching highlights of Dennis Smith, he looks like a very good player and under control. He's not as quick as Fox, but he's a better passer. Either way Smith or Fox, its a win. Mockdraft has Kings picking Smith and Isaac. Really unless the Pelicans magically get 2nd or 3rd pick, the Kings are in good shape. Looking forward to this draft. Kings could have a boatload of young talent. PG and SF. Resign Ty Lawson. Next year the Kings will have a 10-man rotation likely.
 
Of the four 27 win teams I think Philly ends up with the most wins based on their schedule. The swap will probably happen so I think our highest pick will end up being #7.

The Pelicans are for sure gonna pass the Mavericks. That'll put them at #10. So I'm calling it #7 and #10.

I think we'll end up choosing between Markkanen, Issac, Ntalinka, and Bridges. If we trade my guess is it's up for a PG.
 
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The Pelican outbome tonight was a wash - a win or loss did not matter much. Losses to Wolves and Mavs are tres importantante, contributing to draft percentages. Luckily the Mavs/Wolves are not eliminated yet, so theoretically have more incentive to win. Goldilocks would be the 6ers losing as many possible, the Kings losing as many as possible, the Knicks/Mavs/Twolves/Magic winning as many as possible, and the Pelicans losing most of their games .....a pick of 5 of their own and 7 from the Pelicans would be righteous.