Paul Milsap

[sidney]

Utah is one of the more interesting situations to watch this summer. Assuming Boozer opts out (likely) and Okur does not opt out this summer and wants to play the 2010 FA market (likely), they will have about 60M committed to 9 guys on their roster. That excludes Boozer and Milsap. If you figure they need to pick up 3 scrubs/rookies to fill out the bench, they'll probably be at 64m or so before doing anything with Boozer and/or Milsap.

My guess is that they let Boozer go get his 15M/year somewhere else and try to lock up Milsap long term starting in that 6-7m/year range which would keep them right about at the luxury tax line.

In 23 starts this year, Milsap is averaging
17.8pts/11.3rb

and he's 23 years old.

He is short for a PF, but tough and a hell of a rebounder. If we can actually clear Brad for an expiring and buy Mikki out for the 2M we could have enough cap space to sign him to an offer sheet (I believe he is restricted this summer) that could force Utah to let him go if they have to stay under the tax level.

As with most restricted free agents, we'd likely have to overpay for his perceived value right now. You guys think he's worth it?

 

[Vlade4GM]

Utah is one of the more interesting situations to watch this summer. Assuming Boozer opts out (likely) and Okur does not opt out this summer and wants to play the 2010 FA market (likely), they will have about 60M committed to 9 guys on their roster. That excludes Boozer and Milsap. If you figure they need to pick up 3 scrubs/rookies to fill out the bench, they'll probably be at 64m or so before doing anything with Boozer and/or Milsap.

My guess is that they let Boozer go get his 15M/year somewhere else and try to lock up Milsap long term starting in that 6-7m/year range which would keep them right about at the luxury tax line.

In 23 starts this year, Milsap is averaging
17.8pts/11.3rb

and he's 23 years old.

He is short for a PF, but tough and a hell of a rebounder. If we can actually clear Brad for an expiring and buy Mikki out for the 2M we could have enough cap space to sign him to an offer sheet (I believe he is restricted this summer) that could force Utah to let him go if they have to stay under the tax level.

As with most restricted free agents, we'd likely have to overpay for his perceived value right now. You guys think he's worth it?

The're going to match any realistic offer he's going to get.

 

[Smills91]

We have Jason Thompson who IMO is a Paul Millsap like player, with a higher ceiling.

Spending our capspace on a Millsap is virtually redundant money. We should continue to focus on a PG and SF.

 

[sidney]

The're going to match any realistic offer he's going to get.

Sure. Point would be that you would have to offer beyond what they feel is realistic because you really believe in the guy. How far will they match to put them over the tax? They'll stop somewhere.

Interestingly enough, Boozer's year before Utah signed him away from Cleveland:

15.5pts/11.5reb

I remember thinking Utah was crazy and way overpaid for Boozer. They saw something in him, went for it, and paid beyond his current value. And ended up with a value contract for his performance. We'd have to do the same for Milsap. It is a risk...no question.

 

[HighTopKicks]

Sure. Point would be that you would have to offer beyond what they feel is realistic because you really believe in the guy. How far will they match to put them over the tax? They'll stop somewhere.

Interestingly enough, Boozer's year before Utah signed him away from Cleveland:

15.5pts/11.5reb

I remember thinking Utah was crazy and way overpaid for Boozer. They saw something in him, went for it, and paid beyond his current value. And ended up with a value contract for his performance. We'd have to do the same for Milsap. It is a risk...no question.

He'd be worth an offer. Although, with Rubio & Holiday possibly not entering the draft, & several of the other PG's falling in to the mid range, we're most likely going to get a big with our 1st draft pick. And, if Rubio & Holiday wait till next year, next year would be the year of the PG, with possibly 1/2 of the top 10 being PG's.

Either way, what happens before this years trade deadline and where we end up after the lottory, will probably determine any big moves we make next summer.

 

[Merdiesel]

People seem to forget that Milsap is also being set up by one of the best point guards in the league.

Same thing with players that are on teams with Lebron and Kobe. Superstars make mediocre players look great. Not saying that Milsap is mediocre, I actually like the kid... but hes no upgrade over JT.

 

[FakeInjury]

I'm not against a very lucrative 3-yr contract at 27 million, but i would rather spend that on David Lee or better yet, re-sign shelden williams to as much as he requires because i sense he will have a job in the NBA for years to come(in Sacramento or worse LAL and cheap).

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

I think Millsap, even if we get him, will become pretty high maintenance--he's going to ask for the dough after this season, and I don't think we should even involve ourselves with him. In terms of skills, he does bring some well needed nastiness and effort into our team which sorely needs them, and can really act as a great foil to Hawes--but we still have Jason Thompson, and although I'm a little skeptical as to whether he can really be better than Millsap, I think he brings a different degree of game which can be of use for us for the long run.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Sure. Point would be that you would have to offer beyond what they feel is realistic because you really believe in the guy. How far will they match to put them over the tax? They'll stop somewhere.

Interestingly enough, Boozer's year before Utah signed him away from Cleveland:

15.5pts/11.5reb

I remember thinking Utah was crazy and way overpaid for Boozer. They saw something in him, went for it, and paid beyond his current value. And ended up with a value contract for his performance. We'd have to do the same for Milsap. It is a risk...no question.

We won't have the cap space to outbid them I believe, even if we do dump Miller. If they lose Millsap, the have no main cog outside of Williams.

 

[HighTopKicks]

All this conjecture is based on the assumption that Boozer opts out of his contract. If he doesn't heal from his surgury and return to form by the end of the season, he might not get the kind of offers he wants. And, the word out of Miami, is that even without Marion, Miami won't have the cap space to sign him. So, maybe he'll change his mind and not opt out of the last year of his contract.

Then Utah will be stuck with him, and won't be able to sign Millsap without going over the Luxury Tax. So, a very good offer, might get Millsap away from Utah.

 

[sidney]

Last 4 Games, Milsap #s

28/15
20/12
24/15
12/10

This guy looks exceptional. I don't care if Deron is setting him up, Deron has nothing to do with him being an elite rebounder. He's looking like a top 5 talent in that area when starting.

 

[Bricklayer]

I've long been an advocate of Milsap as an energy bench guy -- always thought he showed a lot of nifty skills to go with the banging off the bench. But he is undersized as a starter, and lacks the primary post game of a guy like Boozer. Signing him to a big contract with no Deron level PG to help him would be dangerous. I think he'll always be useful, but if we managed to finally free up the money to make such a move dumping it all into a brand new contract aht might turn out to be abd woiuld be difficult,

 

[Superman]

Millsap is perfect in the "first guy off the bench" role for a good, playoff bound team. He's not the guy you throw a long-term contract after, especially if you're trying to rebuild.

 

[sidney]

Milsap IMO is showing he's much more than a 6th man. He's one of those strange shorter tough guys with a nose for the ball, but he's a scoring threat too and generally a bad *** which is why I like him for a long term contract through his 20s.

We'll see where we land in the draft this year, but a Donte, JT, Hawes front line is going to be another poor rebounding, defensively weak group. I don't assume they will be our future starters.

Steal Milsap, find a way to get Gerald Wallace back here, and draft our PG and we could start dominating games in ways we haven't for years.

 

[OptimusRhyme]

If we can get Milsap we should do it, dudes a beast on the boards and actually plays defense.

 

[=LarryLegend=]

JT, Hawes front line is going to be another poor rebounding

You will regret this comment in 2 years.

Thompson is an above avg rebounder/Hustle player. Hawes is no slouch either. you will regret this comment.

 

[Vlade4GM]

You will regret this comment in 2 years.

Thompson is an above avg rebounder/Hustle player. Hawes is no slouch either. you will regret this comment.

I doubt he'll even care what he said two years from now.

 

[Superman]

Milsap IMO is showing he's much more than a 6th man. He's one of those strange shorter tough guys with a nose for the ball, but he's a scoring threat too and generally a bad *** which is why I like him for a long term contract through his 20s.

We'll see where we land in the draft this year, but a Donte, JT, Hawes front line is going to be another poor rebounding, defensively weak group. I don't assume they will be our future starters.

Steal Milsap, find a way to get Gerald Wallace back here, and draft our PG and we could start dominating games in ways we haven't for years.

I like Millsap, but I don't think he's good enough to start for a really good team trying to win in the playoffs. He's undersized, has no touch from beyond eight feet, and is an average player. He's Jason Maxiell. He's a hustler, he bangs around and plays hard, but he's not the kind of guy you throw a bunch of money at. Especially if you're as bad as we are.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Undersized he may be, but "average" players don't put up the numbers he is right now.

 

[sidney]

I like Millsap, but I don't think he's good enough to start for a really good team trying to win in the playoffs. He's undersized, has no touch from beyond eight feet, and is an average player. He's Jason Maxiell. He's a hustler, he bangs around and plays hard, but he's not the kind of guy you throw a bunch of money at. Especially if you're as bad as we are.

I totally agreed with you until he started playing so well as a starter this year. But he's no league MVP candidate. He's either coming into his own as a top 10 PF in this league or is playing above himself for the contract year/reaping the rewards of a top PG.

Time will tell which he is, but if he is what he is showing whatever team has him will not let him go.

 

[sidney]

You will regret this comment in 2 years.

Thompson is an above avg rebounder/Hustle player. Hawes is no slouch either. you will regret this comment.

Easy on the drama Larry. YOU WILL REGRET THIS!! Hilarious.

If JT or Hawes become an elite rebounder I'll love it. I haven't seen flashes of that yet, but I hope I'm wrong. I see them as decent at best for their positions. I'd guess 8.5-10/game.

I'm talking about Milsap because he is rebounding like a top 5 big man right now, is also scoring well, is a tough defender, is really young, and might be available if Utah is put between a rock and a hard place this summer.

 

[bajaden]

I like Millsap, but I don't think he's good enough to start for a really good team trying to win in the playoffs. He's undersized, has no touch from beyond eight feet, and is an average player. He's Jason Maxiell. He's a hustler, he bangs around and plays hard, but he's not the kind of guy you throw a bunch of money at. Especially if you're as bad as we are.

If Millsap is an average player, then the Kings could use a few of them. If a guy can play, then he can play. There have been a lot of players with below average height that had above average careers.

 

[Superman]

If Millsap is an average player, then the Kings could use a few of them. If a guy can play, then he can play. There have been a lot of players with below average height that had above average careers.

IF we were ready to contend, and IF we could get him on a three year deal, then I'd be begging for Petrie to sign him. It's not really a judgment of him, as I've always liked his game, but he's not going to do anything for us right now except eat cap space. He's a complementary player that you go after if you're the Spurs or the Cavs or the Hornets, or even a team like the Blazers or the Rockets, who are a piece or two away.

The last thing we need to do this summer is sign an undersized power forward for five years, $30 million. I don't care if he hustles. He's not right for us, right now.

 

[Pangloss]

The OP seems right on to me. Accepting the assumption that this team will not be able to attract a Lebron type name superstar to this market (we all agree to this, right?) why not take a chance on a young man who is putting up the numbers Milsap has to this point.

And to address one of the complaints about Milsap: "he is to small." Well, the concern about a players size usually would be about how their lack of height/length might impair their performance on the court-- such as defense, rebounding, finishing around the basket, etc. Which of these areas exactly does Milsap struggle in? His athleticism and toughness seem to make him an exception to the common rule.

If the Kings manage to under the cap at the end of this season instead of next, a many people pine for, who would be a better option? Carlos Boozer is older, injury prone, and would be adding another indifferent defender to one of the softest teams in the nba. David Lee is similiar to Milsap in that he is also athletic, hustles, and is undersized, while a major difference being that Lee is also an anemic defender.

The Kings last big free-agent signing wasn't a superstar-- it was Vlade who nonetheless filled a valuable role for our team for many years. I believe Milsap with his rebounding, defense and emerging offensive game could be a similiar supporting piece

 

[bajaden]

IF we were ready to contend, and IF we could get him on a three year deal, then I'd be begging for Petrie to sign him. It's not really a judgment of him, as I've always liked his game, but he's not going to do anything for us right now except eat cap space. He's a complementary player that you go after if you're the Spurs or the Cavs or the Hornets, or even a team like the Blazers or the Rockets, who are a piece or two away.

The last thing we need to do this summer is sign an undersized power forward for five years, $30 million. I don't care if he hustles. He's not right for us, right now.

If he were 30 years old, I would agree, but the dude is only 24 years old. If your waiting around for a superstar to build around, you could be waiting a long time. To me its a matter of whether a player is worth the salary or not. If he can put up 15 and 10 every night, then he's a steal at 30 mil for five years. This team needs good players and you have to start somewhere.

Incidently, here's a comparison of Millsap and Thompson.

Millsap:

2006/2007 - 6.8 points and 5.2 rebounds.
2007/2008 - 8.1 points and 5.6 rebounds.
2008/2009 - 15.6 points and 9.7 rebounds.

Thompson:

2008/2009 - 9.9 points and 6.8 rebounds

So I think at this point to say that Thompson is not going to be a good rebounder is a little premature. Also, defensively, Thompson was the defensive player of the year twice in his conference. I'll admit that its a weaker conference, but it does show that he has a proclivity for playing defense.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Incidently, here's a comparison of Millsap and Thompson.

Millsap:

2006/2007 - 6.8 points and 5.2 rebounds.
2007/2008 - 8.1 points and 5.6 rebounds.
2008/2009 - 15.6 points and 9.7 rebounds.

Thompson:

2008/2009 - 9.9 points and 6.8 rebounds

Though it's important to take into account that Thompson has played more minutes than Millsap did in his first two years, so per-36 adjustments would be appropriate:

Millsap:
2006/2007 - 13.7 points and 10.3 rebounds (age 21)
2007/2008 - 14.0 points and 9.7 rebounds (age 22)
2008/2009 - 17.5 points and 10.9 rebounds (age 23)

Thompson:

2008/2009 - 14.1 points and 9.7 rebounds (age 22)

Thompson's age-22 season looks remarkably similar to Millsap's age-22 season (though Millsap had the advantage of an extra year in the league). But Millsap's steal and block numbers are much better (1.5/1.5 per 36 against 0.8/0.8 per 36 for Thompson) so that aspect of defense has not (as of yet) translated as well. It does look like Thompson and Millsap should have pretty equal rebounding ability, though.

 

[Superman]

If he were 30 years old, I would agree, but the dude is only 24 years old. If your waiting around for a superstar to build around, you could be waiting a long time. To me its a matter of whether a player is worth the salary or not. If he can put up 15 and 10 every night, then he's a steal at 30 mil for five years. This team needs good players and you have to start somewhere.

It's not waiting for a superstar to build around. It's called not throwing your money at a complementary player who isn't going to make your team substantially better, especially after you've gone on a crusade the last two seasons getting rid of highly paid players to create cap space for a potential run at some big name players. Even if we don't land any big fish, that doesn't mean that we give up the cap space we've been working to have on a guy like Paul Millsap. He's the guy you use your MLE on after you already have a good team.

That's the thing about cap space. Once you use it, it's gone. It's not like adding players with the MLE after you've gone over the cap. Once you give $6 million per to Millsap, that's $6 million that you can't use on anyone else. Again, not to downplay his abilities, but he's not the kind of player that you're not going to come across ever again. Once we get back to respectability and need a guy like Paul Millsap, there will be another one available. No need to go throwing a bunch of money at him right now.

 

[HighTopKicks]

It's not waiting for a superstar to build around. It's called not throwing your money at a complementary player who isn't going to make your team substantially better, especially after you've gone on a crusade the last two seasons getting rid of highly paid players to create cap space for a potential run at some big name players. Even if we don't land any big fish, that doesn't mean that we give up the cap space we've been working to have on a guy like Paul Millsap. He's the guy you use your MLE on after you already have a good team.

That's the thing about cap space. Once you use it, it's gone. It's not like adding players with the MLE after you've gone over the cap. Once you give $6 million per to Millsap, that's $6 million that you can't use on anyone else. Again, not to downplay his abilities, but he's not the kind of player that you're not going to come across ever again. Once we get back to respectability and need a guy like Paul Millsap, there will be another one available. No need to go throwing a bunch of money at him right now.

The same could be said about Martin. It shouldn't be hard to find a SG to put up 20-30 ppg who can't defend, can't create off his dribble, can't rebound, & can't create assists. Why should we pay him $10M? The reason is he helps us win now.

 

[Superman]

Number one, you don't just let your own players walk. They represent your own draft picks (in Kevin's case, a first rounder), plus years you've spent developing them and showcasing them to the fans. Letting Kevin walk is a lot different than not signing Millsap.

Secondly, Kevin Martin doesn't help us win now. We're 10-35. The hope is that he'll help us win in the future. And his contract (though bigger than I think it needed to be) is not keeping us from building our team through free agency.

 

[AriesMar27]

martins contract was the going rate for his production... we would end up paying a player the same amount for the same numbers at his position... look at iggy. and martin goes to the ft line more than most players in the league. if we had a decent team he would be great to have at his price. do you want to pay redd, carter, mcgrady or allen twice as much for the exact same numbers....

milsap is a decent role player at best... he's just like salmons, plays well while getting starters minutes and is useless coming off the bench... he'd be a great back up on a contending team like the celtics, cavs or spurs. but is useless on a team like the kings. i like him but we dont need him. i remember back when kenny thomas first came to the kings, his numbers were almost identical to milsaps.... what he brings to the table is the easiest thing to replace in the nba.... undersized back up pf that hustles.... i like him but we dont need him.