Mock draft 2026
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CVKingsfan
Bench
NBA Draft Big Board: How Big Three Rank, Kingston Flemings Keeps Rising
NBA Draft Big Board: How Big Three Rank, Kingston Flemings Keeps Rising
Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer remain locked in a race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Ausar probably a better comp but it’s different there because Caleb is bigger than the Thompson twins, has better shooting splits, and as crazy as it sounds probably a better rim finisher.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Gonna sound like a diss but there’s a lot of Derrick Williams/Mike Beasley to Koa Peat. The league has changed since both of those guys played so there might be more room to succeed for a 6’7”/6’8” big who doesn’t really have great perimeter skills and isn’t an elite leaper like Zion.
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sactowndog
Hall of Famer
Lopez is worth watching. Hard to follow in New Zealand.
www.tankathon.com
Player Comparison | Tankathon
Compare the statistics of 2026 NBA Draft prospects to each other and prospects from previous drafts. Stats are normalized to per-36-minutes numbers.
www.tankathon.com
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
Yeh its hard to get a read on a guy that is 3-13 from 3 on the season
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Not a great shooting night and I've seen a lot less playmaking than I expected from him on the NCAA level, but he's also clearly still not 100%. He seems to still lack some of his normal explosion and burst when changing directions or hitting the brakes.
He's my #1 with Dybantsa as a clear #2. I probably have Wilson #3. Boozer is SO productive, and has seemed to figure things out incredibly fast, but I still don't know that he's a cornerstone player in the NBA as a PF without elite explosion.
It's still Wilson at #1 for me. Elite offense gets players max contracts but doesn't always translate to wins but teams with elite defense always make the playoffs. Peterson's production for a Freshman is remarkable and he probably should be the #1 pick for a lot of teams but I just don't know that drafting another guard is going to change anything for this organization. Sure the argument is we can find our elite defenders some other way but can we? Will we? History says otherwise.
Wilson still has a ton of defensive potential, but so far he's been much less impactful on that end than I expected. Of course, he's also been much better on offense than I expected also.
Joshyjosh31
Starter
Elite defense doesn’t matter if you can’t score or don’t have an offensive hub
I'm not settled yet, I'm just saying that as of today I still like the overall mix of offense and defense that I've seen from Caleb Wilson more than the overall mix that I've seen from anyone else. I'm not ignoring offense, I just don't see it as more important than defense.
EDIT: And also worth noting, Fox was an offensive hub for this team and was sometimes called a ball hog because of it. Drafting a leading scorer to build around first didn't work out with DeMarcus (a top 10 scorer his last 3 and a half seasons in Sacramento) and it didn't work out with Fox (a top 10 scorer his last season and a half in Sacramento and top 15 the three seasons before that). What makes you think Dybantsa or Peterson will fare better than our last two franchise players did?
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Kingster
Hall of Famer
The one game I've seen so far was not impressive. His lack of effort on the boards was very evident and yet the announcers were crowing about how competitive he is. He's got to show a LOT more for him to warrant a top 5 pick, imo
Kingster
Hall of Famer
He's got length and a handle and he has athleticism to get where he wants to go. He is a project, but as projects go he has a lot to work with.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
I like the first two, but Boozer is going to find the NBA much more challenging than college ball. His defense DNA is lacking and his first step quickness is lacking. He's got strength. I'll give him that. But at his size he needs more than strength to prosper in the NBA. As you intimated, he's not a cornerstone; more of a complementary player that is normally found in the mid-first round.
P.S. He will be one that NBA teams single out to attack in their offensive scheme.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Good call on Williams, scouting in schools always follows patterns. Definitely not as athletic as either. More of a brute. I still see some Big Nasty there especially athletically.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
I saw some youtube video and they said the difference between Peterson and the others is that they tend to like the ball in a spot and that was totally right on. Peterson stands out because he has that classic just roll the ball out and go to work ability.
I love Caleb Wilson, I really do. I've made that clear I think in this very thread. But let me give you a long-winded explanation of why maybe he shouldn't be the first guy off the board.
Let's look at the last 25 years. In the last 25 years there have been 50 teams to make the NBA finals (obviously). Of these teams, 47 (94%) have had at least one of the following 18 players: Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, Nowitzki, Garnett, Kidd, LeBron, Durant, Curry, Kawhi, Giannis, Tatum, Doncic, Jokic, Butler, Haliburton, SGA...and Dwight Howard.
These players belong to a list that I think most of us would be comfortable calling #1 guys (there may be more #1 guys on the list, who didn't or have yet to make a finals), and with the exception of Howard they are all dominant on-ball offensive players.
Only three teams in 25 years have made the finals without a guy who looks to me like he belongs on this list: the '03-'04 and '04-'05 Pistons (Rip Hamilton? Ben Wallace?) and the '20-'21 Suns (Booker?)
That means that if you want to make the finals, you almost certainly have to have a #1 offensive option like the guys on that list. But with only 18 guys on that list in 25 years, a guy like that only comes around less than once a year! How do you get a guy like that? Of course, a team like the Kings is most likely to get a guy like that from the draft. And we can't be sure, but a guy like Dybantsa or a guy like Peterson, and maybe even a less-athletic guy like Boozer, play ball-dominant offense as if they are guys who might make that list. Caleb Wilson...he probably doesn't.
That's not to say that Wilson couldn't end up being that Dwight Howard exception, defensively dominant and offensively opportunistic, but the chances of finding the star power that you really kind of need to get into contention are probably better if you lean towards the ball-dominant players. Wilson is a great consolation prize and I could easily see him being the #2 guy on a really lethal contender, and hey there's also a pretty decent chance he ends up the best player in the draft, but I kinda see why teams would want to roll the dice on getting the ball-dominant star.
I'm assuming he's saying that the bottom six slots in his top-ten are going to be filled with those 5 PGs and one more player, and not that AJ/Peterson/Boozer/Wilson don't have star potential. But it's kind of unclear.
Not a diss and he is struggling in a lot of games either with foul trouble or shooting. Bradley, Burries & Krivas are the heart and soul of the team and even guys like Kharchenkov and Dell'Orso are making a stamp as often as Koa does.
Real tribute to the job CTL has done and why it is a breath of fresh air from Miller's teams that relied on the big name.
I hope he goes top 10 but long after we've picked. With NIL he could even benefit from a year working on his shooting but I doubt that's in the card.
Joshyjosh31
Starter
Fox isn’t a star hell fox is barely an all star it’s been proven time and again he isn’t close to the prospect of AJ and Peterson. You can draft the best defender of all time won’t matter when you don’t have an offensive hub
What playoff team is even built on a defensive anchor right now? OKC isn’t a threat to go to the second round without SGA, Orlando the last couple years had elite defense and couldn’t do anything in the playoffs because they lack offense, Timberwolves have Gobert but Ant makes them go. The GSW dynasties still win rings if you replace Green with a very good defender they don’t sniff a single championship if you replace Steph with even an all star guard
Ya Caleb is a very good defensive prospect but how is he gonna score, how is the offense gonna run with him as the lead guy? In a draft with multiple offensive hubs in the top four taking Wilson over any of them makes no sense to me.
Agree with everything stated here!! I think AJ can be that guy was listening to Nerd Sesh podcast and they made a compelling argument that AJ might be the best scoring wing prospect since KD. A guy with that size that moves like that in nba space is gonna be unguardable a 6’8 SGA one can say
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Joshyjosh31
Starter
I need to see him create and shoot before I even think of taking him over Boozer to me there’s nothing he could do to be drafted over AJ/Peterson
People are starting to fall into the same trap with Boozer they did with Luka. "Not explosive enough, not athletic enough, it'll never work in the NBA". And yet, as an 18 year old freshman, he's dominating college basketball like a 22-23 year old elite senior would playing at the highest level. In fact, I see a match-up nightmare with him at the 4 at the NBA level with how many teams try and get away with smaller wings now.
My initial read with Boozer remains fairly true; not flashy, not going to wow you with athleticism, but he makes the right play over and over again, puts the ball in the hoop and his team is going to win the game. I don't even know how his numbers can be real, especially for an 18 year old
AJ is at 1, Peterson probably at 2, but would not fault any team at all to grab Boozer instead at 2. He's going to be damn good
I don't go by consensus, I never have. I go by what I can see. Unnamed scouts can call Peterson the next Kobe until they're blue in the face but I need to see it for myself for that to matter. Emoni Bates was talked about as a generational prospect in high school. He was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a Freshman in High School in fact and won Gatorade Player of the Year after his Sophomore season. Both are pretty remarkable accomplishments but he peaked early or couldn't adjust to the professional game because he struggled at Memphis, transferred to a Division II school for his second year and ended up being drafted in the 2nd round in 2023. So far he has played 208 minutes of NBA basketball and that may be all he's ever going to get. The point is scouts flip out over somebody every year. If we're to take other people's word for who to draft #1 we're going to be wrong more often than we're right.
So what I'm saying isn't that I'm going to pass on a generational talent for a defensive role-player because I like defense. Maybe that's what folks are hearing. What I'm saying is I'm drafting the guy who to me looks like the best prospect in the draft. That's the best mix of athletic ability, size, instincts, two-way potential, and the highest possible ceiling. To me (right now) that player is either Caleb Wilson or AJ Dybantsa and I'm still leaning (slightly) in the direction of Wilson. Notice I said "prospect" not "player". There are no more 4 year star college studs so there's always going to be a degree of projection involved in scouting the top prospects. Many years there is nobody in the draft who projects as an elite #1 option in which case the next best thing I think isn't to tie yourself down to a very expensive second tier scoring talent but rather to take somebody who worst-case is at least going to help your defense and best case (with a little wishful thinking) might develop into a two-way star. Guys like Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard who were not taken in the top 10 specifically because they were expected to be solid low ceiling but high floor talents.
Of the 18 players you listed -- only 4 of them (Kidd, Curry, Haliburton and SGA) are guards. *Luka may call himself a guard but he's 6'8" and 230 lbs. He's a point forward.* And I think the reason for that is obvious: A 6'5" or shorter guard is never going to have the level of overall defensive impact that a long wing, forward, or center can have so they need to be the elite of the elite on offense to get their team to the Finals or they need to be very lucky in their teammates. What happened to the hype around Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Jalen Green, Ja Morant, Lonzo Ball, Kris Dunn, D'Angelo Russell? All guys who were supposed to be super athletes or elite shooters or playmakers or all of the above. It's too early to say about the most recent class but Anthony Edwards is out there on an island right now as the one elite (top 5) guard of the last 10 drafts who has lived up to his billing.
All of which is just a preamble to this... I'm just not sold on Darryn Peterson being in that category yet (elite, lead a team to the Finals franchise guard) based on what I've seen. He's a very good shooter and he's quick with the ball in his hands but he doesn't appear to get off the ground quickly. I see him finishing quite a bit with floaters and layups which are going to get blocked in the NBA with the timing and release point that he is using now. Yes I look at the raw numbers and he is putting up top of the scale WS/48 numbers as a Freshman which almost always bodes well. But the player I see right now is going to have a learning curve to find the right angles and trickery to beat NBA paint defenders because he can't beat them with raw explosiveness. Is that because he's injured? Okay, fair enough. We'll see. But if he can't show it by the end of March that becomes a question mark too doesn't it? Why is he still injured?
Of the players you listed, a third of these guys are not "give it to them on the perimeter and let them create your offense" types of scorers. Caleb Wilson would fall into the category of players like Duncan, Shaq, Dirk, Garnett, Howard and Giannis -- guys who didn't (don't in the case of Giannis) have an array of scoring moves to create offense from all three levels. Garnett, for instance, attempted 632 three point jumpers spread out over 21 years in the NBA. That's an average of 30 attempts per year. Dirk I could see an argument for -- especially because he was a volume outside shooter -- but he really only had a few moves, they were just unguardable moves because of his size. Why can't Caleb Wilson be one of these guys? He has the mid range jumper. He has the athleticism to finish above the rim, often times above and through defenders. Shaq's entire game was physical intimidation and beating guys to the rim. Half of what made Duncan, Garnett, and Giannis stars was/is their ability to be lynchpins for their teams on defense. Okay so the game has changed a lot over the last 25 years... A modern elite scorer needs to be able to shoot the outside jumper and get to the line. Wilson doesn't have the range yet but he's not a non-shooter -- his mid range shooting form looks good and he ought to be able to add range as he gets stronger and transitions to the NBA style of offense. And he is already getting to the line at an elite rate (.656 FtR). Better than Peterson (.367) and Boozer (.556) and on pace with Dybantsa (.642).
So I look at the list of 18 players you posted and my first thought is, I like the gamble on Caleb Wilson -- an elite athlete with dominant size and above the rim finishing ability, very good compete level and instincts -- more than I like the gamble on Peterson. And comparing Wilson and Dybantsa is more of a "pick your favorite role" decision than it is a question of talent. Do you like to gamble on taking a guy who is going to win through raw athleticism and intimidation or a guy who is going to dribble themselves to 30 ppg? Which is more likely to find their 3pt shot first? Which is going to impact the game more on both ends and make their teammates better? The things I'm looking for in a prospect are not often what everyone else is looking for -- I'm always trying to project out 5 years from now and bet on who will grow into the best version of themselves. But if we're going to make this argument about methodology instead of about players than I don't think everyone is considering the full picture when suggesting that you always take the elite perimeter talent first. Your own examples show it to be more of a mixed bag.
A few points.
(1) Fox not being close to the prospect of AJ or Peterson is an opinion and it currently has no evidence to support it other than your own projection. Fox scored 39 points in an NCAA tournament game during his one and done year at Kentucky. He was a top 5 talent in his draft year too. And he was a top 15 scorer in the league for 4 and a half years with the Kings. If that's not an offensive hub than I don't know what is.
(2) I've already written 1000 words on why I don't view Caleb Wilson only as a defensive anchor. If you still think that's what I'm saying there's no point continuing this argument further.
(3) No disrespect to Nerd Sesh, but I have no idea who that is and don't care. Everybody thinks they're a draft expert and half of everybody has a podcast.
(4) Nobody knew that SGA was going to be an MVP. Not one person I can think of called that correctly. Same with Kawhi Leonard. If SGA is the goal, it's highly unlikely that we find the next SGA by picking the guy that everybody projects as the next SGA.
Joshyjosh31
Starter
I think most scouts would say AJ is the better prospect then fox look at his numbers, positional advantage, size and athleticism. AJ has mvp potential fox didn’t and I wouldn’t consider a one time all star an offensive hub especially when the year he won it Sabonis was basically the hub
I think Wilson will be a more than just a defensive player but what has he shown that he could even be a number two on a good team? His shooting % at the rim is a major red flag as well
I’m just saying AJ could be like a 6’9 SGA not that that’s what he is
