Mike Conley to Declare

[HighFlyingMonkey]

Conley, Oden, and Cook to Declare

In the next 48 hours

http://www.cbs.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/10135066

Edited title for better clarity

 

[Bricklayer]

Little interest there, but I do hope that means that Oden will quickly join him. More depth the better for us in this draft (of course that means that basically everybody gets their own stud and we are no better off vis a vis all the lottery teams than we were to start, but still, first things first, we need a stud).

 

[nbrans]

Little interest there, but I do hope that means that Oden will quickly join him. More depth the better for us in this draft (of course that means that basically everybody gets their own stud and we are no better off vis a vis all the lottery teams than we were to start, but still, first things first, we need a stud).

Definitely agree.

Personally I'd rather have Collison or Taurean Green than Conley, and if we're in the market for one of those guys we might be able to swing a trade for a late first/early second pick. Otherwise, go big.

 

[BMiller52]

Definitely agree.

Personally I'd rather have Collison or Taurean Green than Conley, and if we're in the market for one of those guys we might be able to swing a trade for a late first/early second pick. Otherwise, go big.

Are you kidding me?

 

[nbrans]

Are you kidding me?

I don't like point guards who can't shoot. Other than Brevin Knight and TJ Ford, who have made up for it with blinding, unreal quickness (which Conley doesn't have -- he's quick but not THAT quick), it's never really worked. The NBA three pointer kills guys like Conley. Teams sag off, no penetration, and you're left with a guy who is just sort of moving the ball on the perimeter to little effect.

If he learns to shoot, then he'll be good. But Conley doesn't even shoot free throws very well.

Also, Taurean Green is quick, he plays great defense, shot 44% from 3, and played for a loaded team. He could have been the man elsewhere. I may be way off base on this one, but to me he looks like a solid NBA point guard, sort of like Mo Williams, who was also picked in the second round.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I don't like point guards who can't shoot. Other than Brevin Knight and TJ Ford, who have made up for it with blinding, unreal quickness (which Conley doesn't have -- he's quick but not THAT quick), it's never really worked. The NBA three pointer kills guys like Conley. Teams sag off, no penetration, and you're left with a guy who is just sort of moving the ball on the perimeter to little effect.

If he learns to shoot, then he'll be good. But Conley doesn't even shoot free throws very well.

Also, Taurean Green is quick, he plays great defense, shot 44% from 3, and played for a loaded team. He could have been the man elsewhere. I may be way off base on this one, but to me he looks like a solid NBA point guard, sort of like Mo Williams, who was also picked in the second round.

I like Green too and I'd definitely take Collison over Conley, but I'd never take Green over Conley. Green just doesn't have the facilitating skills to be a true point guard which is what we need. Someone who can run the offense, play, and just straight up facilitate. I'm afraid Conley is a telfair type bust though, however he is bigger than telfair and has a longer wingspan so I think he'd be better than him defensively.

 

[Venom]

I don't like point guards who can't shoot. Other than Brevin Knight and TJ Ford, who have made up for it with blinding, unreal quickness (which Conley doesn't have -- he's quick but not THAT quick), it's never really worked. The NBA three pointer kills guys like Conley. Teams sag off, no penetration, and you're left with a guy who is just sort of moving the ball on the perimeter to little effect.

If he learns to shoot, then he'll be good. But Conley doesn't even shoot free throws very well.

Also, Taurean Green is quick, he plays great defense, shot 44% from 3, and played for a loaded team. He could have been the man elsewhere. I may be way off base on this one, but to me he looks like a solid NBA point guard, sort of like Mo Williams, who was also picked in the second round.

I concur. Green will be a high value pick for where he is going to end up being rated. Collison was able to bother him in the Final Four, but Green maintained floor generalship and orchestrated a blowout.

The one thing that really swings in Conley's favor as a lottery pick is the ability to take over games in crunch time. That is a rare trait for a freshman PG. Couple that with his defense and I think he has the commitment and tenacity to develop his jumper. As I recall, his form is solid, so he simply needs repitition.

But, as you suggest, I don't think I would be thrilled to walk away from the draft with just Conley, whereas we assume Green would be one of at least two young additions to the roster. I would hands down prefer Green + a lottery big/swing, as I assume both Bibby and Artest will be gone this summer.

 

[hrdboild]

Am I the only one who saw Conley pick Green's pocket at least 3 times in the championship game -- once in the backcourt -- and pick off or deflect a number of passes too? Why would you want Green over Conley? Just because he can shoot the three? If all we wanted out of our PG was shooting we'd be hard-pressed to do much better than Bibby, and he's already on our team.

 

[nbrans]

Am I the only one who saw Conley pick Green's pocket at least 3 times in the championship game -- once in the backcourt -- and pick off or deflect a number of passes too? Why would you want Green over Conley? Just because he can shoot the three? If all we wanted out of our PG was shooting we'd be hard-pressed to do much better than Bibby, and he's already on our team.

I think this is a good point -- Green's weakest trait is that he's a bit of a shaky ballhandler (Vlade4GM makes a similar point above), but at the same time, it wasn't like Conley really outplayed Green that badly. 20 and 6 to 16 and 6 -- Green only took 6 shots and made them count.

 

[supamari0]

I'd rather take Acie Law over all those guys.

He's got size, plays pretty decent defense (although he has a tendency to gamble a little too much) and is as clutch as you can get. Plus he's a good shooter with great range.

He's nothing spectacular but he'll get the job done at point guard.

 

[BMiller52]

Acie Law reminds me of Billups but he's a better slasher and he doesn't have the post up game that Chauncey has IMO. But he is one clutch guy, I could get excited over Acie.

 

[nbrans]

I like Law, but I worry that as the league is moving toward faster and faster point guards that he would have trouble matching up with the young quick guys. Other than that, I agree with BMiller52, he's got some Billups in him, I just think I would prefer to have a speedster.

 

[supamari0]

I like Law, but I worry that as the league is moving toward faster and faster point guards that he would have trouble matching up with the young quick guys. Other than that, I agree with BMiller52, he's got some Billups in him, I just think I would prefer to have a speedster.

True, but unless you're someone like Earl Watson, denying guard penetration from lightning point guards like TJ Ford is almost entirely dependent on team defense and rotations. When the Rockets played Toronto, it's not like Rafer Alston did jack to stop TJ Ford. Instead, Shane Battier and Chuck Hayes kept sliding over and drawing charges. No one can stay with guys like TJ Ford or Steve Nash. (although last game we put T-Mac on him and he did a damn good job)

I still think he'll be a plus player on the court. All of his pros outweigh his lack of quickness. He's a good mid to low first round pick.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Looks like Collison is staying put: http://draftexpress.com/headlines.php#2662

Which is fine by me. I'd rather see us pick up a big man this year, and get the PG next year in the Great Point Guard Draft of 2008.

 

[nbrans]

True, but unless you're someone like Earl Watson, denying guard penetration from lightning point guards like TJ Ford is almost entirely dependent on team defense and rotations. When the Rockets played Toronto, it's not like Rafer Alston did jack to stop TJ Ford. Instead, Shane Battier and Chuck Hayes kept sliding over and drawing charges. No one can stay with guys like TJ Ford or Steve Nash. (although last game we put T-Mac on him and he did a damn good job)

I still think he'll be a plus player on the court. All of his pros outweigh his lack of quickness. He's a good mid to low first round pick.

It's not just defense though, it would be great to have a super-quick point guard for offense, both pushing the ball up the court for fast breaks and for penetrating into the lane. As LPKingsFan points out, next year is going to be the year of the point guard, and it's really the year of the ridiculously quick/athletic point guard. Once guys like OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose, Darren Collison and Ty Lawson get into the league, watch out.

It's also going to make Bibby look as slow as Mark Jackson used to look at the tail end of his career. Six or seven years ago Brevin Knight, Marbury and Steve Nash were pretty much the only lightning-quick point guards around, now you have TJ Ford, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Raymond Felton, Mo Williams and Jameer Nelson. The league is only getting more athletic.

 

[walker60]

Anyone who would take Collison over Conley seriously needs to reconsider that notion. Matter of fact, I'd take at least 3 PG's over him:

1. Conley
2. Law
3. Crittenton

I wouldn't consider taking Collison as a lottery pick, especially for our team.

 

[Dime Dropper]

The more I see of this kid the more I like him. Sure, this is a good draft for bigs, but if there is no big that we want left I would have no problem taking Conley. I think I remember people here having a debate about his quickness, to me it looks like he is lightning and can keep up with guards such as Parker and Paul. He looks like he can be another CP3, actually. People worry about his shot, but he's only 19 and it can certainly improve.

Some very nice clips:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3VZrTEq7GY (Behind back crossover - splits double)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ThGBn9NcE&mode=related&search= (quick first step)

 

[nbrans]

The more I see of this kid the more I like him. Sure, this is a good draft for bigs, but if there is no big that we want left I would have no problem taking Conley. I think I remember people here having a debate about his quickness, to me it looks like he is lightning and can keep up with guards such as Parker and Paul. He looks like he can be another CP3, actually. People worry about his shot, but he's only 19 and it can certainly improve.

Some very nice clips:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3VZrTEq7GY (Behind back crossover - splits double)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ThGBn9NcE&mode=related&search= (quick first step)

That first clip is incredible, that second one looked mostly like bad defense to me. He's definitely quick -- I don't think he's as quick as Parker and Paul (or Ford/Barbosa). And yes, he can improve. I don't know, I still can't get that excited about him. He's probably the best of a really weak point guard class, but he doesn't scream sure thing to me. Deron Williams and Chris Paul were sure things coming out of college -- Conley's going to have to learn to shoot, and that's a big gamble to take on a lottery pick point guard, especially since he doesn't even shoot free throws very well.

 

[Vlade4GM]

That first clip is incredible, that second one looked mostly like bad defense to me. He's definitely quick -- I don't think he's as quick as Parker and Paul (or Ford/Barbosa). And yes, he can improve. I don't know, I still can't get that excited about him. He's probably the best of a really weak point guard class, but he doesn't scream sure thing to me. Deron Williams and Chris Paul were sure things coming out of college -- Conley's going to have to learn to shoot, and that's a big gamble to take on a lottery pick point guard, especially since he doesn't even shoot free throws very well.

You can always improve your shooting. I'm not relaly big on Conley, but he's got a ton of potential and he might be our only shot for a big time starter at our pick. Hopefully Jianlian is available.

 

[BMiller52]

IMO Conley is much more of a "sure thing" than Jianlian.

 

[Vlade4GM]

IMO Conley is much more of a "sure thing" than Jianlian.

Eh, neither one of them are close to "sure things" but I have to go with the more valuable upside on this one. If it's a decision between a Tony Parker and a Pau Gasol I take Gasol. I think we're in a position to take the risk on Jianlian, it's a solid risk to take. I know this sounds kind of silly, but the 2008 draft is going to be chock full of good pg prospects and if we have a shot at a quality big man prospect we should take it. I still don't see Conley as a true facilitator at this point, he's more of a drive and kick guy and that won't work in the NBA as much as it would in college. His size, quickness, length, and athleticism makes him intriguing though.

 

[6th]

Eh, neither one of them are close to "sure things" but I have to go with the more valuable upside on this one. If it's a decision between a Tony Parker and a Pau Gasol I take Gasol. I think we're in a position to take the risk on Jianlian, it's a solid risk to take. I know this sounds kind of silly, but the 2008 draft is going to be chock full of good pg prospects and if we have a shot at a quality big man prospect we should take it. I still don't see Conley as a true facilitator at this point, he's more of a drive and kick guy and that won't work in the NBA as much as it would in college. His size, quickness, length, and athleticism makes him intriguing though.

I don't think that sounds silly at all. A good GM has to look at what is available now and in the future. I think it is careless to ignore big men when the draft is heavy with big men, and it is a primary need of your team. A pg is not as important this year, unless you already have a deal in place to move your starting pg and you are getting no pg in return.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I don't think that sounds silly at all. A good GM has to look at what is available now and in the future. I think it is careless to ignore big men when the draft is heavy with big men, and it is a primary need of your team. A pg is not as important this year, unless you already have a deal in place to move your starting pg and you are getting no pg in return.

Well, we shouldn't be closed off to taking a PG. As long as the player we pick isn't a SG then we have a need. I'm not suggesting we grasp for big man no matter who else is available, I'm saying if there is a quality big man prospect like Jianlian available who has comparable if not better upside than Conley we should take him. In a sense, the tie goes to the big man.

 

[HighFlyingMonkey]

After big players, getting a true PG is the hardest position to fill. Conley is a true facilitator. If we don't get a big, I want Conley.

 

[nbrans]

You can always improve your shooting. I'm not relaly big on Conley, but he's got a ton of potential and he might be our only shot for a big time starter at our pick. Hopefully Jianlian is available.

It's possible to improve your shooting, and people always say this, but it's actually extremely rare. Brevin Knight hasn't improved his outside shooting, TJ Ford has improved somewhat, but he's still not really a threat from outside. People always say, look at Michael Jordan, he improved his shooting... well, yeah, but he also was a really good shooter to begin with -- in the one season where he played with the three pointer in college he shot 45%.

I know he's only 19, but still, it's worrisome to me.

I agree with you about Jianlian -- I actually think he's the lesser risk. You know a seven footer with athleticism is going to have a place in the NBA, if Conley can't learn to shoot he's going to be a marginal player.

 

[BMiller52]

1st off there is a huge chance Jianlian is NEVER going to become anything close to Gasol. He's way too skinny, he's playing against horrible competition, and the defenders in the NBA will be way more athletic and they'll have way more strength. He won't get any of those moves going to the basket because he'll have a much harder time getting past NBA defenders. He won't get many rebounds against NBA players. He won't score on NBA guys in the post because he'll get pushed out of the paint way too easily. He can't block shots in China so why are we going to believe he's a good shotblocker against NBA competition? Basically he has a mid range J going for him and height. He's extremely overhyped and he's going to be a bust. Also many sources say he's already 23, possibly 24. So I don't really see how he has all this potential.

Conley is a good past first PG who can defend. He's only 19 and he has a lot of superstar potential. He'll be the best PG in the draft and we can hopefully pick up one of Andray Blatche/Amir Johnson as big men. Conley has proven he can create for guys. He's got quickness and court vision on his side. He's got a decent mid range shot also, so I don't see why he can't improve his jumper. He's 4 years younger than Jianlian and everyone is saying that Jianlian can improve, add strength, learn to box out, block shots, etc. but for some reason Conley can't fix the only hole in his game which is shooting(and that's a skill that IS fixable)? More importedly he was a leader of that OSU team IMO. After he got 2 fouls in the first like 4 minutes against Florida his team basically fell apart even though Oden absolutely dominated Noah/Horford.

 

[nbrans]

1st off there is a huge chance Jianlian is NEVER going to become anything close to Gasol. He's way too skinny, he's playing against horrible competition, and the defenders in the NBA will be way more athletic and they'll have way more strength. He won't get any of those moves going to the basket because he'll have a much harder time getting past NBA defenders. He won't get many rebounds against NBA players. He won't score on NBA guys in the post because he'll get pushed out of the paint way too easily. He can't block shots in China so why are we going to believe he's a good shotblocker against NBA competition? Basically he has a mid range J going for him and height. He's extremely overhyped and he's going to be a bust. Also many sources say he's already 23, possibly 24. So I don't really see how he has all this potential.

Conley is a good past first PG who can defend. He's only 19 and he has a lot of superstar potential. He'll be the best PG in the draft and we can hopefully pick up one of Andray Blatche/Amir Johnson as big men. Conley has proven he can create for guys. He's got quickness and court vision on his side. He's got a decent mid range shot also, so I don't see why he can't improve his jumper. He's 4 years younger than Jianlian and everyone is saying that Jianlian can improve, add strength, learn to box out, block shots, etc. but for some reason Conley can't fix the only hole in his game which is shooting(and that's a skill that IS fixable)? More importedly he was a leader of that OSU team IMO. After he got 2 fouls in the first like 4 minutes against Florida his team basically fell apart even though Oden absolutely dominated Noah/Horford.

ok, but to be fair, this is the absolute worst case scenario for Jianlian and the absolute best case scenario for Conley.

The best case for Jianlian is that he becomes a Nowitzki-esque athletic big who can take the ball to the hole or shoot from outside, can be an adequate rebounder and defender, and could be a killer on the fastbreak.

The worst case scenario is the Conley doesn't have the blinding quickness to get into the lane, doesn't develop a jump shot, and basically turns into Carlos Arroyo.

I'm no expert, but I don't see superstar potential with Conley. He doesn't do any one thing all superbly, but it's going to take incredibly vast improvement for him to become a superstar type of player. Jianlian on the other hand has some super-duper athleticism, he has size, and he has some moves.

There's always bust potential, but I think the risk with Jianlian is much much less. You can find point guards like Conley in every draft, you can't really say that about a guy like Jianlian.

PS: Also, Jianlian has played against the USA's best players and put up good numbers. His competition in the Chinese league isn't NBA caliber, obviously, but he has already shown he can compete.

 

[Smills91]

ok, but to be fair, this is the absolute worst case scenario for Jianlian and the absolute best case scenario for Conley.

The best case for Jianlian is that he becomes a Nowitzki-esque athletic big who can take the ball to the hole or shoot from outside, can be an adequate rebounder and defender, and could be a killer on the fastbreak.

The worst case scenario is the Conley doesn't have the blinding quickness to get into the lane, doesn't develop a jump shot, and basically turns into Carlos Arroyo.

I'm no expert, but I don't see superstar potential with Conley. He doesn't do any one thing all superbly, but it's going to take incredibly vast improvement for him to become a superstar type of player. Jianlian on the other hand has some super-duper athleticism, he has size, and he has some moves.

There's always bust potential, but I think the risk with Jianlian is much much less. You can find point guards like Conley in every draft, you can't really say that about a guy like Jianlian.

PS: Also, Jianlian has played against the USA's best players and put up good numbers. His competition in the Chinese league isn't NBA caliber, obviously, but he has already shown he can compete.

I'd prefer Conley to Jianlian personally...the one thing that Conley DOES do well is dictate the tempo of the game and doesn't make a lot of mistakes...He's also lightning quick and plays the passing lanes well on defense. He's not a light's out shooter, but neither was Chris Paul in college. I think Conley is by far the best PG prospect and also was the best player on the Ohio St. team. He's a leader and all these qualities are the qualities that so many Kings fans have screamed for from our PG position over the past couple years. Conley IMO will be as good as Chris Paul is currently, and that's pretty darn good.

 

[nbrans]

I'd prefer Conley to Jianlian personally...the one thing that Conley DOES do well is dictate the tempo of the game and doesn't make a lot of mistakes...He's also lightning quick and plays the passing lanes well on defense. He's not a light's out shooter, but neither was Chris Paul in college. I think Conley is by far the best PG prospect and also was the best player on the Ohio St. team. He's a leader and all these qualities are the qualities that so many Kings fans have screamed for from our PG position over the past couple years. Conley IMO will be as good as Chris Paul is currently, and that's pretty darn good.

Chris Paul WAS a lights out shooter in college, he shot over 46% from 3 both years. There's a wide gap there. The difference between Paul and Conley in college was really, really stark, and I don't agree that Conley is as quick as Paul, not to mention that Paul is 6'3". It was obvious Paul was a man among men and was going to make a great pro. You have to kind of squint and hope and pray that he gets a jump shot to see Conley being a star in the NBA. Being a floor general is not enough.

 

[Smills91]

Chris Paul WAS a lights out shooter in college, he shot over 46% from 3 both years. There's a wide gap there. The difference between Paul and Conley in college was really, really stark, and I don't agree that Conley is as quick as Paul, not to mention that Paul is 6'3". It was obvious Paul was a man among men and was going to make a great pro. You have to kind of squint and hope and pray that he gets a jump shot to see Conley being a star in the NBA. Being a floor general is not enough.

The college three is a chip shot though. I'm referring to NBA range. Paul is developing that nicely.