Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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I hope he goes #1 and wins rookie of the year.... on any team other than the Kings. I'm sure he'll be successful in the NBA for awhile in terms of putting up numbers and getting paid but to me he's exactly the type of prospect who gets overhyped every year. He's big, athletic, physically advanced for his age, and has one-on-one moves that track well in highlight reels but other than looking the part he doesn't have any elite skills.
For now I've got Benny Mathurin ranked as my #1 prospect. He won't be the best rookie next year and might not be the best player in his class for 3 or 4 years but he has long-term potential to surpass all of them. Rookie of the Year is often a meaningless accolade anyway.
For now I've got Benny Mathurin ranked as my #1 prospect. He won't be the best rookie next year and might not be the best player in his class for 3 or 4 years but he has long-term potential to surpass all of them. Rookie of the Year is often a meaningless accolade anyway.
I have Mathurin at 4, so I see the appeal there.
As for Banchero, he's been the least hyped of the top three and although he's physically developed for his age, it's not one of those situations where he's an overly muscled, but undersized college senior beating up college freshman. Dude is jumbo sized in college and the NBA. And what makes him elite is not his one on one skills. It's the feel, the size, and the handles. He has better handles than pretty much all of the top picks outside of maybe Ivey.
As for Banchero, he's been the least hyped of the top three and although he's physically developed for his age, it's not one of those situations where he's an overly muscled, but undersized college senior beating up college freshman. Dude is jumbo sized in college and the NBA. And what makes him elite is not his one on one skills. It's the feel, the size, and the handles. He has better handles than pretty much all of the top picks outside of maybe Ivey.
I don't read ESPN, so I couldn't tell you. I do follow a lot of guys who focus on the draft (& listen to their podcasts), and all of them have him going 3rd or 4th (prior to the tournament). Lest you think they just don't like him, almost all of them had him #1 at the start of the season.
Now is it possible that a team will fall in love with him at #1? Of course, but it is most likely that Smith & Holmgren are taken with the first 2 picks.
Now is it possible that a team will fall in love with him at #1? Of course, but it is most likely that Smith & Holmgren are taken with the first 2 picks.
If Brown can develop a consistent outside shot, he'd be a great fit with Sabonis and Fox as a low usage C&S target and cutter who can also defend well and be a lob threat in transition. He also adds some passing playmaking, but his ballhandling/creation skills may limit his overall upside. He'd only be a target if the Kings traded down or somehow acquired a second FRP, likely in the 15-22 range.
Kendall Brown is a guy I'd love to have a mid-1st round pick for; especially if he falls to like that 14-16 range. I think there's a ridiculous amount of defensive upside and if you can find a way to unlock anything on offense; he's got high-level starter ability. The athleticism and the early defensive chops are very intriguing.
Similar thoughts on Sochan too. I think both him and Brown can be real defensive difference makers, but you need to find something more consistent on offense with both.
Similar thoughts on Sochan too. I think both him and Brown can be real defensive difference makers, but you need to find something more consistent on offense with both.
Right now, the 10-40 range in this draft is clear as mud. There's at least a remote chance that a guy like Brown who is running a bit more on potential than performance could slip down into the early second. Or, let's say, it's basically certain that at least a few guys like Brown are going to slip into the early second, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise to me if he were to be available for the Kings. Maybe a small surprise, but there will be a few names there that will be small surprises.
Right now, my ranking is Banchero, Chet, Smith, and Mathurin. Then 5 - 60. Need to see more of the G-League and International guys to see if there are any diamonds, but the college prospects outside of the top 4 are very, very average. I'm not impressed with any of them. Murray, Ivey, Davis, Griffen...would be mid firsts to second round picks in any other draft.
Soooo, at this point, without knowing where we'll be after the lottery, I'm going to assume that we stay at the seven spot. I would love to jump up into the top two spots where I know I'm getting either Holmgren or Smith, but I'm not holding my breath. So with that assumption, I'm going to go through the players I would like to draft at that spot. At number one is Keegan Murray. I know some will think I'm crazy, but I think he's a better player than Banchero, and that he has more upside. First, he's a better athlete than Banchero. The biggest difference between Murray and Banchero is one is 6'10" and the other is 6'8". I know a recent report has Murray at 6'9", but until that's confirmed at the combine, I'll stick with 6'8".
It's possible that Murray could be gone by the time we pick. Some mocks have him going as early as five and six. If so that would take me to my 2nd choice. But that's a different post. I've gone out of my way to understate Murray's abilities all year long. Saying that he's not great at any one thing but he's good at almost everything. Well, one area he excels at, is in knowing how top play the game. He's a very smart player who always seems to be in the right place at the right time. In some regards, he's like a taller version of DiVincenzo.
I've watched Murray and Banchero play in at least 20 games this year not counting the tournament, and I think I have a good read on both of them. Murray is a better defender and shot blocker, although almost all of his blocked shots come from weakside help. Murray has an uncanny ability to help at the precise perfect moment. He has excellent timing. He's a good rebounder in traffic, and out of his area, something Banchero isn't particularly good at. When it comes to 3pt shooting it's a no contest between the two. Murray ended the season averaging 39.8% from the three on 4.7 attempts a game. Banchero averaged 33.8% on 3.3 attempts. Some were critical of Murray free throw shooting but he ended the year shooting 74.7% while Banchero, who no one criticized shot 72.9%.
Murray pulled down 8.7 rebounds a game while Banchero averaged 7.8. This is not meant to demean Banchero in any way. All I'm doing is showing you that in almost every category, Murray was better, and Murray arguably, played in the toughest conference in basketball, the big ten, with Purdue, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan St. Murray was the focus of the other teams defense in almost every game, while Banchero might have been the focus, he was surrounded by other players you had to guard. Not so with Murray. Murray is good at attacking the basket, and has good handles for a big man. And while he only averaged 2 assists a game, his job was to score, and he seldom turned the ball over.
I like Murray a lot, and I think he'll be a very good NBA player, and maybe more than that. I like this video because it shows a lot of what he's capable of. It will never replace watching 20 or more games, but it shows the Keegan Murray that I'm familiar with.
It's possible that Murray could be gone by the time we pick. Some mocks have him going as early as five and six. If so that would take me to my 2nd choice. But that's a different post. I've gone out of my way to understate Murray's abilities all year long. Saying that he's not great at any one thing but he's good at almost everything. Well, one area he excels at, is in knowing how top play the game. He's a very smart player who always seems to be in the right place at the right time. In some regards, he's like a taller version of DiVincenzo.
I've watched Murray and Banchero play in at least 20 games this year not counting the tournament, and I think I have a good read on both of them. Murray is a better defender and shot blocker, although almost all of his blocked shots come from weakside help. Murray has an uncanny ability to help at the precise perfect moment. He has excellent timing. He's a good rebounder in traffic, and out of his area, something Banchero isn't particularly good at. When it comes to 3pt shooting it's a no contest between the two. Murray ended the season averaging 39.8% from the three on 4.7 attempts a game. Banchero averaged 33.8% on 3.3 attempts. Some were critical of Murray free throw shooting but he ended the year shooting 74.7% while Banchero, who no one criticized shot 72.9%.
Murray pulled down 8.7 rebounds a game while Banchero averaged 7.8. This is not meant to demean Banchero in any way. All I'm doing is showing you that in almost every category, Murray was better, and Murray arguably, played in the toughest conference in basketball, the big ten, with Purdue, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan St. Murray was the focus of the other teams defense in almost every game, while Banchero might have been the focus, he was surrounded by other players you had to guard. Not so with Murray. Murray is good at attacking the basket, and has good handles for a big man. And while he only averaged 2 assists a game, his job was to score, and he seldom turned the ball over.
I like Murray a lot, and I think he'll be a very good NBA player, and maybe more than that. I like this video because it shows a lot of what he's capable of. It will never replace watching 20 or more games, but it shows the Keegan Murray that I'm familiar with.
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I wish I shared your optimism, but I would be stunned if Brown slid into the 2nd rd. I agree he didn't have the year everyone thought he would have, but I think most of the criticism of Brown isn't about his skill set, but his refusal to use his skill set. Most teams probably think they can fix that. I'm not so sure, but what I think doesn't matter. I think you either have an aggressive nature or you don't. There have been a lot of very skilled players that have come into the NBA that ended up being good players, but never the great player everyone thought they could be. Billy Owens springs to mind!
Anyway, it sounds like I'm adding to your argument, and perhaps your right, but I'll still be stunned if it happens. I think I currently have him going at 18 on my list. I suppose I should update my mock...
Anyway, it sounds like I'm adding to your argument, and perhaps your right, but I'll still be stunned if it happens. I think I currently have him going at 18 on my list. I suppose I should update my mock...
My 2nd choice if Murray is gone when we pick, is Bennedict Mathurin. The 6'7" SF/SG. I had to watch a lot games to get a good feel for Mathurin. The more I watched the more I liked. There were a lot of games where at the end of the game he had 17 or 18 pt's and 6 or 7 boards, and you don't remember him doing all that. He's very good at picking his spots, and is very opportunistic. I would almost call him a quiet assassin. But where he stood out was when nothing was working for Arizona, and he would decide he was going to win the game. That's when he showed off his athleticism and scoring abilities.
Mathurin plays with an edge about him and he'll bring some toughness to the team that drafts him. His handles are certainly good enough for the wing position, but with a little tweaking, he could become a bit better at attacking the basket. He's a very good defender sharing the same defensive rating as Murray at 96.8. His freshman year he shot 41.8% from the three at just under 4 a game. This season his average dipped a bit down to 37% but he took over 6 a game. Still good, and bodes well for the future. And just for SactownDog, Mathurin shot 76.4% from the line after shooting 84.6% his freshman year.
Once again, Mathurin knows how to play the game! He has good BBIQ. He had a 25.1% usage rate which was a bit less than Murray who had a usage rate of 29.7%. Both were key players for their team, and probably the best players on their teams, although Mathurin definitely had more help with his surrounding cast, which would explain his smaller usage rate. When I watch Mathurin play, I feel like I'm only seeing the tip of the iceberg. That once in the NBA, he'll take several steps forward his first couple of years. I would take Murray over him simply because I feel he fits a more pressing need, and might be the better player right now.
But beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Kings select Mathurin over Murray. I prefer Murray, but would OK with either. For those on this forum that prefer Mathurin, I get it, and can't argue against either of them. Mathurin is a three level scorer, although he needs to attack the basket more, other than just in transition. Like Murray, he fills a need at the wing, and would add more athleticism to the team. He would also make Holiday expendable if the Kings wanted to use him as a trade asset. Or, if Holiday can regain his 3 pt shot, he would be a solid backup behind Mathurin.
I do think it's more likely that Mathurin will be available when we pick than Murray will be. I hope I'm wrong about that, but hey, maybe we get lucky in the lottery and then it won't matter.
Mathurin plays with an edge about him and he'll bring some toughness to the team that drafts him. His handles are certainly good enough for the wing position, but with a little tweaking, he could become a bit better at attacking the basket. He's a very good defender sharing the same defensive rating as Murray at 96.8. His freshman year he shot 41.8% from the three at just under 4 a game. This season his average dipped a bit down to 37% but he took over 6 a game. Still good, and bodes well for the future. And just for SactownDog, Mathurin shot 76.4% from the line after shooting 84.6% his freshman year.
Once again, Mathurin knows how to play the game! He has good BBIQ. He had a 25.1% usage rate which was a bit less than Murray who had a usage rate of 29.7%. Both were key players for their team, and probably the best players on their teams, although Mathurin definitely had more help with his surrounding cast, which would explain his smaller usage rate. When I watch Mathurin play, I feel like I'm only seeing the tip of the iceberg. That once in the NBA, he'll take several steps forward his first couple of years. I would take Murray over him simply because I feel he fits a more pressing need, and might be the better player right now.
But beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Kings select Mathurin over Murray. I prefer Murray, but would OK with either. For those on this forum that prefer Mathurin, I get it, and can't argue against either of them. Mathurin is a three level scorer, although he needs to attack the basket more, other than just in transition. Like Murray, he fills a need at the wing, and would add more athleticism to the team. He would also make Holiday expendable if the Kings wanted to use him as a trade asset. Or, if Holiday can regain his 3 pt shot, he would be a solid backup behind Mathurin.
I do think it's more likely that Mathurin will be available when we pick than Murray will be. I hope I'm wrong about that, but hey, maybe we get lucky in the lottery and then it won't matter.
Yeah the only real way to screw up this draft is reaching for TyTy or Duren at that 7-8. I wouldn't be overtly thrilled with Eason/Agbaji/Sochan, but at least there's a "need" component there that would make sense with some positional upside. And I'm a huge fan of that 2nd Murray/Mathurin/Davis/Griffin tier, all of whom I think have really good/valuable NBA skill0sets.
TyTy/Duren would just be the worst of both worlds. I don't think anywhere close to BPA, and don't fill a need.
TyTy/Duren would just be the worst of both worlds. I don't think anywhere close to BPA, and don't fill a need.
Yeah I'm extremely low on TyTy. Not an explosive athlete, not an elite shooter, not a super convincing lead playmaker/ball-handler, nothing popped on D. Nothing stands out in the statistical profile either. I just don't get what makes him a lotto prospect on everyone's board.
Duren is really interesting, but I just don't think he's BPA at 7-8 regardless and the fit is extremely rough with Sabonis long-term.
Duren is really interesting, but I just don't think he's BPA at 7-8 regardless and the fit is extremely rough with Sabonis long-term.
The thing about TyTy is he has that Kentucky G shot, peaking around pick and roll and mid ranging. We just saw Davion kill it on that shot before defenses starting to hound him and he went a bit cold. I think TyTy has higher potential than most think, but he's one of those role matters guys since yeah, he doesn't have a great physical tool set.