Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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Yeah I don't see the comp here, other than some good handle/playmaking from a big dude. But Simmons is a top 5 defender in basketball, and one of the best playmakers in the game who doesn't want to shoot/score at all. I think finishing/scoring is going to be Banchero's bread and butter and he's at least given us some semblance of an outside jumper.
True, but Banchero is primarily a midrange shooter and shows shaky confidence in his three point shot. If you remove his 7 for 14 hot streak in the last three games his three point shooting percentage goes down to 31%. It's easy to forget now considering the last time we saw Ben Simmons in the NBA he refused to shoot from anywhere on the floor, but back in HS and LSU and even early on in his career with the Sixers he did score a lot of his points with midrange jumpers. He was expected to be at least a 15-18 ppg scorer, good enough to be a primary initiator and second or third option in an offense.
I don't like direct player comparisons because they're almost always reductive and misleading. It's very unlikely that Banchero develops into the player that Ben Simmons is now -- but if you look at who Ben Simmons was as a prospect and who Banchero projects to be in the NBA, I see two point forwards who create primarily in the midrange or attacking the basket whose biggest selling points are above-average mobility, athleticism, and ballhandling skills for their size and proficiency in creating good looks for their teammates. Given the trends in outside shooting we've seen over the last 5-6 years, if you advance 18 year old Ben Simmons from the class of 2016 to the class of 2022 I think he probably takes 100 three point jumpers in college instead of three.
While Simmons had defense to hang his hat on, Banchero will need to excel as a scorer with his less impressive defensive tools and that can work in the NBA in the right circumstances but you either need him to become an above average outside shooter or you need to surround him with a big man and guards who are.
I don't like direct player comparisons because they're almost always reductive and misleading. It's very unlikely that Banchero develops into the player that Ben Simmons is now -- but if you look at who Ben Simmons was as a prospect and who Banchero projects to be in the NBA, I see two point forwards who create primarily in the midrange or attacking the basket whose biggest selling points are above-average mobility, athleticism, and ballhandling skills for their size and proficiency in creating good looks for their teammates. Given the trends in outside shooting we've seen over the last 5-6 years, if you advance 18 year old Ben Simmons from the class of 2016 to the class of 2022 I think he probably takes 100 three point jumpers in college instead of three.
While Simmons had defense to hang his hat on, Banchero will need to excel as a scorer with his less impressive defensive tools and that can work in the NBA in the right circumstances but you either need him to become an above average outside shooter or you need to surround him with a big man and guards who are.
Which is why I'm concerned. Not only is he going to get in the way of Fox's best spot on the floor (the pull up elbow jumper) he's also going to get in the way of Sabonis' favored high post shot creation. If we draft Banchero with the intention of developing him into a centerpiece it seems to push us strongly in the direction of moving on from both Fox and Sabonis. If he's the BPA so be it, but I don't see that as a likely outcome in this draft considering that I have Murray, Mathurin, and Eason all ranked higher than Banchero on my prospect list. Obviously our front office might disagree.
My initial worry with Banchero before watching some film was that he was going moreso just a low-post stopper without much of a jumper. But he honestly will walk into the NBA as one of the more talented big man passers/ball-handlers in the NBA. Just very few dudes at 6'10+ 240 with his on-ball skill-set. So even if his shot is a little sketchy to start, he's giving you some secondary creation, which the Kings still desperately need.
I definitely see some fit concerns, which is partly why I'd keep him at 3 behind Chet/Jabari (who I just rate as better prospects anyway), but I think talent wise, he's a clear choice if those 2 guys are off the board. I think the floor on Paolo being a very good starter/scorer in the NBA is really good; I'd bet a lot that he can have a Tobias Harris type career arc as a floor. For him to be a star/feature player, he's got to get find a consistent jumper and get to at least average defensively.
I definitely see some fit concerns, which is partly why I'd keep him at 3 behind Chet/Jabari (who I just rate as better prospects anyway), but I think talent wise, he's a clear choice if those 2 guys are off the board. I think the floor on Paolo being a very good starter/scorer in the NBA is really good; I'd bet a lot that he can have a Tobias Harris type career arc as a floor. For him to be a star/feature player, he's got to get find a consistent jumper and get to at least average defensively.
Sure but of the players he's often compared to -- Tobias Harries, Julius Randle, Lamar Odom, mid-career Blake Griffin -- how many of these guys are leading playoff teams in this current century? To be a high-efficiency scorer in the NBA you need to either excel at drawing and converting free throws or you need to excel at volume three-point shooting. Everyone else is using up too many possessions to get their stats. Banchero may project as a better pure scorer than someone like Mathurin or Eason but those guys have off-ball skills which add to their value. Keegan Murray is not as athletic as Banchero but he's just as gifted as a scorer and he's been more reliable as a spot-up shooter, rebounder, and all around defender. It's not just that I don't like Paolo's fit on a Kings roster built around Fox and Sabonis, I don't like his fit in the modern NBA period.
Any one of those guys would be one of the better draft picks in Kings history. I'd take any one of them if that was a guarantee with this years draft pick. Obviously it would be great to draft a future HOF player but the Kings could make the playoffs if they added any one of those skill sets to the current roster.
I don't really know what his player type is. His main additions have been Haliburton, Mitchell, Sabonis and DDV. All fairly different players except DDV and Mitchell being the same archetype.
I think he's going to pick BPA with the only exception maybe being skipping over Ivey. We'll obviously know more once the lottery is over with.
Maybe he'll post a picture with his white board in the background and we'll know for sure?
I think he's going to pick BPA with the only exception maybe being skipping over Ivey. We'll obviously know more once the lottery is over with.
Maybe he'll post a picture with his white board in the background and we'll know for sure?
Remember that Monte is primarily an advanced stats guy and doesn't seem to care about finding ideal fit players in the draft. Based on who he's drafted in the past I have to agree with @iowamcnabb here, I think he has Keegan Murray, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith ranked very highly with Tari Eason, Bennedict Mathurin, and Mark Williams in the second tier. Christian Koloko and Oscar Tshiebwe are dark horses though both are projected as late first round picks. Guys I think he would shy away from are Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, Jaden Ivey and Johnny Davis but a lot depends on where we're drafting. At 8-10 he might not be able to take his ideal player.
