Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft

#93
His stats seem a bit Josh Hart like. Less of a shooter, better defender. Does that match the eye test?
Prob a better connector, but I think that’s a decent current comp. Dude has really exploded recently, so his arc is starting to really steepen. His body type, work ethic, and physicality kind of reminds of me of a non-pg, non-black hole, wing version of Russ at UCLA during the latter half of his first year. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if his athleticism jumps a few levels next year—whether he returns or if he’s in the pros. Think UCLA is poised for another deep run and think dude’s going to sky rocket up draft boards.
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#94
Prob a better connector, but I think that’s a decent current comp. Dude has really exploded recently, so his arc is starting to really steepen. His body type, work ethic, and physicality kind of reminds of me of a non-pg, non-black hole, wing version of Russ at UCLA during the latter half of his first year. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if his athleticism jumps a few levels next year—whether he returns or if he’s in the pros. Think UCLA is poised for another deep run and think dude’s going to sky rocket up draft boards.
Clark has looked fantastic over the last couple of games. But his season averages don't look good yet (and probably can't be fixed by the end of the season) and I don't know how much he was on any radars. Barring an incredible tournament that makes him un-missable I can't imagine he won't return for one more year just to get some eyes on him. No reason to come out and go in the 50s if you can spend another year and get taken in the first round. And you know, this kid plays hard, he hustles, he leaves it all on the floor, and he's a good defender and at least a decent passer. Still needs to convince me on his three ball but it's getting a lot better. He's the kind of guy I can see sticking but scouts may want to see a full year.
 
#95
Clark has looked fantastic over the last couple of games. But his season averages don't look good yet (and probably can't be fixed by the end of the season) and I don't know how much he was on any radars. Barring an incredible tournament that makes him un-missable I can't imagine he won't return for one more year just to get some eyes on him. No reason to come out and go in the 50s if you can spend another year and get taken in the first round. And you know, this kid plays hard, he hustles, he leaves it all on the floor, and he's a good defender and at least a decent passer. Still needs to convince me on his three ball but it's getting a lot better. He's the kind of guy I can see sticking but scouts may want to see a full year.
Selfishly, I hope he returns for another year, but I think he skyrockets after the pac 12 tourney and the ncaa tourney. Russ was rated as a second rounder at the beginning of his soph yr, then was slotted to go at the back of the lottery to mid teens before the ncaa tourney then skyrocketed to a top 5 pick after the tourney. Have a feeling Clark is going to climb as well as scouts see the point of attack defense in a power wings body and connector skills on both sides of the ball. We’ll see.

From Tracy’s article:

“First and foremost: UCLA's struggles all season have greatly come from playing spotty defense. so what UCLA needed most was a lockdown defender.

Voilà, there's Clark, an elite-level defender who can transform UCLA's defense from a mostly decent one to a very good one.

UCLA's pretty potent offense has a tendency to get bogged down by too much one-on-one play, not enough passing and movement away from the ball.

Voilà, there's Clark, who is an offensive catalyst with his basketball I.Q. and vision. His movement and extra pass can enhance UCLA's already-good offense to a thing of beauty…

In fact, all of your collective Bruin prayers have been answered to the extreme. You might have just been asking for another primary contributor, but what you got was a guy who might be the best player on the team and one of the best in the Pac-12...

Clark, in the last three games he's started, is averaging 19.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.6 steals and 2.3 assists (and by the way, the statisticians have cheated him out of some assists). If those stats were for the season, he'd be leading the team in points, rebounds and steals. Those are first-team all-Pac-12 Conference-level numbers. To put it in perspective, Arizona's Bennedict Mathurin, who is the leading candidate for Pac-12 Conference Player of the Year, is averaging 17.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1 steal and 2.3 assists per game…


And those are just the numbers. If you trust your eyeballs, Clark's impact is even more pronounced. Basketball is a game of five players whose success isn't determined by merely each individual achievement but also how well each individual contributes to the overall achievement of the team. There hasn't been a UCLA player that makes the team as a whole better at UCLA since Lonzo Ball, and Ball's impact was only on the offensive end. Before, that, not since Arron Afflalo.

Clark makes the team better defensively, clearly. Of course, the fact that Myles Johnson stepped into the starter role at center also greatly enhanced UCLA's defense, too. Adding Clark and Johnson to the lineup pushes UCLA across the line of being an inconsistent defensive team to a consistently very good defensive team.“
 
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Kingster

Hall of Famer
#96
I've began watching a bunch of random guys, and this appears to be another year of good prospects all over. It could easily end up being one of those rare times where a random pick at #13 turns out being the best player. This is not the year to trade away our pick.
I get the same feeling. I definitely like having those 2nd round picks. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some major gems in the lower 1st and 2nd round.
 
#97
"Murray is the only player nationally to average 23+ points, 8+ rebounds, and 2+ blocks this season and one of three players from a major conference with those averages over the last decade."

"Murray (6-foot-8, 225 pounds) ranks first in the country in Player Efficiency Rating (38.2)"

Rick Coleman KWWL News
 
Yeh I hope you are right. What a pathetic showing by the Hawkeyes and Coach Fran. Keegan was short on all of his perimeter shots ( I am wondering if that Big Ten title run ran them out of juice) and yet he still posted 21 and 9 in one of his worst performances of the season. He didn't take a shot from the 8 minute mark of the first half until about midway through the second. WTF
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer

Yes please. Loving those high post feeds to cutters and the spacing is just absolutely perfect. Would totally unlock another level for Fox/Sabonis.
Unlike Mathurin, he at least has something to hang his hat on in the NBA - shooting. He's a very good floor spacer. If he's with the Kings next year he'll get his shots in the corner or on the wing on fast breaks. Otherwise? I dunno. Doesn't have a handle and will struggle greatly against NBA strength, imo. Not strong with the ball. Not a good defender in space. Doesn't make much of a diff in other areas of the game. Moves laterally like Skal - gangly and somewhat uncoordinated. (Skal with a better jump shot?:p). I fear he's going to get obliterated guarding NBA guys in space. A Jackson St. guy got two steps on him going to the basket before he knew what hit him. If he's guarding someone like Lyles, he should be fine. If he's guarding most 3s in this league (forget about 2s and 1s) he's not going to be in their zip code. If the Kings did draft him, would he big a big difference maker on the Kings next year? I doubt it.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
Unlike Mathurin, he at least has something to hang his hat on in the NBA - shooting. He's a very good floor spacer. If he's with the Kings next year he'll get his shots in the corner or on the wing on fast breaks. Otherwise? I dunno. Doesn't have a handle and will struggle greatly against NBA strength, imo. Not strong with the ball. Not a good defender in space. Doesn't make much of a diff in other areas of the game. Moves laterally like Skal - gangly and somewhat uncoordinated. (Skal with a better jump shot?:p). I fear he's going to get obliterated guarding NBA guys in space. A Jackson St. guy got two steps on him going to the basket before he knew what hit him. If he's guarding someone like Lyles, he should be fine. If he's guarding most 3s in this league (forget about 2s and 1s) he's not going to be in their zip code. If the Kings did draft him, would he big a big difference maker on the Kings next year? I doubt it.
You might literally be the only person in the world to say this lol
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I doubt it. Maybe the only person in your world.:D

You must see a Holmes clone out there defending in space. I see Skal's brother.:D
Kingster, with all due respect, I'll kindly say that you're wrong. Let me correct that! Your right, he needs to improve his handles, and he will. To comment on his physical appearance is just ridiculous. He's still 18 years old, and I suspect that by the time he's 20 he'll look entirely different. I think we tend to forget that were talking about kids, kids that will get better and better, especially if they desire to be great, which he does. Barring injury, your looking at a future all star player.

Imagine him on a team with a PG like Haliburton instead of the three idiots he's been playing with all season. On average, any of the three main guards on his team took twice as many shots per game than he did. The problem with being a big, is that you can't do much if you don't have the ball. So to be the best player on the team, and be the focus of the other teams defense, and hardly ever touch the ball, it's to his credit that he was still able to make the impression he did.

There's not a player in this draft, any draft, that doesn't have some flaws. The trick is to look for qualities that make that player stand out. I can find things to be critical of with any player in this draft. But does said player have the ability to do something that none of the other players can do. You would be hard pressed to find another athletic 6'10" player in this draft that can shoot the ball the way Jabari can. Add in that he's a very good rebounder and a good weakside help defender, and you have a very good foundation to start from. And if I might add, Jabari has that one intangible that you can't bottle. He just feels special. I've watched him play in 15 to 20 games, and I come away with the same feeling every time I see him.

By the way, if Jabari and Skal were to go one on one, it would be a no contest. Not that Skal wasn't talented, it's just that Skal didn't believe in himself. Jabari does!
 
Jabari Smith is Skal's younger brother. Put this down as one of Kingsters classic blunders that he'll never walk back.
Skal is like exhibit A for NBA teams to push to keep one year after high school a thing for kids. He was supposed to be next up in high school and got a rude awakening at the college level. The high school production ended up being mostly flash.

Jabari on the other hand has been one of the best players in college basketball at 18 years old. And basically everything he's great at is exactly what translates well to the NBA level to make him an outstanding NBA prospect. Just a different world than where Skal was at coming out.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
Kingster, with all due respect, I'll kindly say that you're wrong. Let me correct that! Your right, he needs to improve his handles, and he will. To comment on his physical appearance is just ridiculous. He's still 18 years old, and I suspect that by the time he's 20 he'll look entirely different. I think we tend to forget that were talking about kids, kids that will get better and better, especially if they desire to be great, which he does. Barring injury, your looking at a future all star player.

Imagine him on a team with a PG like Haliburton instead of the three idiots he's been playing with all season. On average, any of the three main guards on his team took twice as many shots per game than he did. The problem with being a big, is that you can't do much if you don't have the ball. So to be the best player on the team, and be the focus of the other teams defense, and hardly ever touch the ball, it's to his credit that he was still able to make the impression he did.

There's not a player in this draft, any draft, that doesn't have some flaws. The trick is to look for qualities that make that player stand out. I can find things to be critical of with any player in this draft. But does said player have the ability to do something that none of the other players can do. You would be hard pressed to find another athletic 6'10" player in this draft that can shoot the ball the way Jabari can. Add in that he's a very good rebounder and a good weakside help defender, and you have a very good foundation to start from. And if I might add, Jabari has that one intangible that you can't bottle. He just feels special. I've watched him play in 15 to 20 games, and I come away with the same feeling every time I see him.

By the way, if Jabari and Skal were to go one on one, it would be a no contest. Not that Skal wasn't talented, it's just that Skal didn't believe in himself. Jabari does!

You spend five paragraphs talking about Smith, but in not one sentence did I see that you disagreed with me that Jabari is "limited" when it comes to guarding guys in space on the perimeter. And for crying out loud, I'm not making a comparison on how Smith and Skal look in the mirror! I'm commenting on their resemblance in how they MOVE LATERALLY. They both move laterally in an uncoordinated ungainly manner, which makes it very difficult for them to respond to change in direction by an offensive player. That's why a Jackson St. guy who was approximately 6'6" blew by Smith like he was glued to the floor. He literally took two steps toward the basket before Smith could get his center of gravity balanced so he he could move in the same direction as the offensive player. If you don't like the Skal comparison when it comes to lateral movement, then tell me other 6'10 dudes in the NBA who you think are comparable to Smith in their lateral movement. Please respond to my concrete specific comments, not about Smith's shooting prowess, which I have already have acknowledged is excellent.
 
I think I have Holmgren at the top of my board at this point.

His only real knock is his weight/strength, but we're talking about a guy who...
  • Is 7'0" tall
  • Has a 7'6" wingspan
  • Can block shots at an elite rate (5.5 BLK/40 min)
  • Can rebound at a great rate (14.5 REB/40 min)
  • Can shoot the 3 ball and space the floor (.392 3P% on 4.9 3PA/40 min)
  • Can knock down pull-up and turnaround jump shots
  • Can handle the ball & take his man off the dribble
  • Has some passing ability & good IQ (2.9 AST/40 min while only having a .217 USG%)
  • Scores at an extremely efficient rate (21.1 PTS/40 min with a .695 TS%)
That's a hell of a prospect.


He also pairs with Fox & Sabonis well...
  • He doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective (only had a .217 USG% in college and scored 21.1 PTS/40 min with a .695 TS%) which helps keep the ball in the hands of Fox & Sabonis helping maximize their effectiveness
  • He spaces the floor for Fox & Sabonis to help keep the paint clear for them
  • His elite defense & rim protection is much needed to help makeup for the lack of defensive presence from Sabonis
  • Sabonis weight/strength covers for Holmgren's lack of weight/stregnth. Sabonis would likely guard guys like Jokic, Embiid, etc. with Holmgren playing the weakside shotblocker role as a help defender.
 
I think I have Holmgren at the top of my board at this point.

His only real knock is his weight/strength, but we're talking about a guy who...
  • Is 7'0" tall
  • Has a 7'6" wingspan
  • Can block shots at an elite rate (5.5 BLK/40 min)
  • Can rebound at a great rate (14.5 REB/40 min)
  • Can shoot the 3 ball and space the floor (.392 3P% on 4.9 3PA/40 min)
  • Can knock down pull-up and turnaround jump shots
  • Can handle the ball & take his man off the dribble
  • Has some passing ability & good IQ (2.9 AST/40 min while only having a .217 USG%)
  • Scores at an extremely efficient rate (21.1 PTS/40 min with a .695 TS%)
That's a hell of a prospect.


He also pairs with Fox & Sabonis well...
  • He doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective (only had a .217 USG% in college and scored 21.1 PTS/40 min with a .695 TS%) which helps keep the ball in the hands of Fox & Sabonis helping maximize their effectiveness
  • He spaces the floor for Fox & Sabonis to help keep the paint clear for them
  • His elite defense & rim protection is much needed to help makeup for the lack of defensive presence from Sabonis
  • Sabonis weight/strength covers for Holmgren's lack of weight/stregnth. Sabonis would likely guard guys like Jokic, Embiid, etc. with Holmgren playing the weakside shotblocker role as a help defender.
I'm here as well. Chet is just mightily impressive and the Kings might be one of the better suited teams in the league to cover his weakness with Sabonis handling the beefy Centers so he doesn't have to get thrust right away into playing the 5 full time. The big thing is I just don't have any skill questions with him; he checks every box you look for from a potential franchise player; any doubt or question is tied to him not being able to gain weight.

And he's honestly answered the weight thing as well as he could this season. He arguably was the best player in college basketball this year. The NBA is of course a whole different level of physical, but from the film we have; you can't really ask for much better results.

I love Jabari and he's been my #1 for most of the year, but I think Chet's upside is more franchise altering than Jabari's at this point.
 
I'm here as well. Chet is just mightily impressive and the Kings might be one of the better suited teams in the league to cover his weakness with Sabonis handling the beefy Centers so he doesn't have to get thrust right away into playing the 5 full time. The big thing is I just don't have any skill questions with him; he checks every box you look for from a potential franchise player; any doubt or question is tied to him not being able to gain weight.

And he's honestly answered the weight thing as well as he could this season. He arguably was the best player in college basketball this year. The NBA is of course a whole different level of physical, but from the film we have; you can't really ask for much better results.

I love Jabari and he's been my #1 for most of the year, but I think Chet's upside is more franchise altering than Jabari's at this point.
My biggest question with Holmgren has shifted from "Can he hold up against bigger, stronger players?" to "Can he defend on the perimeter?"

If the Kings get lucky with a top 2 pick and are determined to build around Sabonis and Fox, Holmgren would need to play the four when he plays with Domas. For all the good things he does, will he get run off the floor when teams go small?

I think Chet will be fine defensively and he's got so many tools on both ends of the floor. He's hard to pass up, especially for a team that already has it's two main scorers in Fox and Sabonis.

That said, I'm not sure Jabari doesn't have just as much potential. After all, he's a full year younger and has grown by leaps and bounds in a very short period of time. Either one would be a great fit.

Ivey and Banchero I have more concerns about. I think if you get a top 4 pick you likely have to take them, but the Kings don't really need another primary scorer with questionable defense, at least not with the current core.
 
My biggest question with Holmgren has shifted from "Can he hold up against bigger, stronger players?" to "Can he defend on the perimeter?"

If the Kings get lucky with a top 2 pick and are determined to build around Sabonis and Fox, Holmgren would need to play the four when he plays with Domas. For all the good things he does, will he get run off the floor when teams go small?

I think Chet will be fine defensively and he's got so many tools on both ends of the floor. He's hard to pass up, especially for a team that already has it's two main scorers in Fox and Sabonis.

That said, I'm not sure Jabari doesn't have just as much potential. After all, he's a full year younger and has grown by leaps and bounds in a very short period of time. Either one would be a great fit.

Ivey and Banchero I have more concerns about. I think if you get a top 4 pick you likely have to take them, but the Kings don't really need another primary scorer with questionable defense, at least not with the current core.
One great thing about Holmgren is his recovery is incredible, even if he gets beat off the dribble. Happens when he gets bullied in the post too; even if someone moves him off his spot, he still has an awesome ability to get a good contest off. He understands his huge wing-span so well and is still able to get a good contest when he gets blown by. I don't see too many concerns with his lateral movement though; he's a very fluid athlete. I'd give him a better shot at being able to stick with the Jayson Tatum/Pascal Siakam types over trying to handle the Jokic/Embiid/Gobert physicality.

I think his best spot is going to be as a "unicorn 4" as opposed to trying to beef him up to handle the 5 at the NBA level. The Cavs smartly saw that with Mobley too and he's thriving with one of the best defensive rookie seasons ever (I'd already say he's an elite defensive player) . Allen takes the interior physicality, while Mobley is free to be a weakside shot blocker and just bully opposing 4's with his man-defense. And once Mobley's offensive game catches up, good luck trying to small-ball vs him.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
With the NCAA tournament in progress, it's interesting that at least one mock draft has recently changed their views on the top five: https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/
No longer is Jabari #1 and Holmgren #2, and if I recall correctly they had Bancero #5. Instead, they have Ivey as #1 and Smith #2 and Bancero #3.

I have Bancero and Ivey as 1A and 1B. If a gun were held to my head and I had to choose BPA I'd pick Bancero. Given the Kings have more of a need at the PF position it makes the choice easier: I would choose Bancero with the #1 pick in the draft. If Bancero and Ivey are not available. I would desperately try to trade the pick.

Holmgren is just too high risk for #2, imo. He's getting pushed around like a feather at the college level. Seeing him fall down because of contact with a 6'5" guy made me cringe a little. I admit my imagination is too limited to see how he can overcome his rail thin body in the NBA.

Jabari can at least be a very good outside shooter in the NBA, but are the Kings going to get more from him than they currently do from Harrison Barnes? Even if you say that Jabari's defense is as good as Barnes's, a very generous assumption in my view, where are Jabari's points going to be coming from when he's guarded on the perimeter? At least with Barnes he can drive to the basket and get to the free throw line. I'm not at all confident in Jabari's ability to draw fouls while attempting to drive to the hoop. Maybe years down the line he'll be able to do that; I don't know. I'll concede that I'll be wrong on Jabari if he demonstrates the ability to shoot effectively over lengthy NBA defenders when he's guarded. If he's like Kevin Durant in that regard, well then he's another Kevin Durant, and we'll see multiple All Star games and a future HOFer. To me, he's the hardest player to evaluate in this current top 5.

Not interested in Mathurin. Again, if you draft a 6'5" shooting guard you better be highly confident in his ability to shoot 3s. I don't have that with Mathurin. I have more confidence in Terence Davis than in Mathurin. Maybe with time he can get there, but it could be a long while, like longer than his rookie contract. He also hasn't shown the propensity to make players around him better and I haven't seen stellar defense that could mitigate any of the above.
 
My biggest question with Holmgren has shifted from "Can he hold up against bigger, stronger players?" to "Can he defend on the perimeter?"

If the Kings get lucky with a top 2 pick and are determined to build around Sabonis and Fox, Holmgren would need to play the four when he plays with Domas. For all the good things he does, will he get run off the floor when teams go small?

I think Chet will be fine defensively and he's got so many tools on both ends of the floor. He's hard to pass up, especially for a team that already has it's two main scorers in Fox and Sabonis.

That said, I'm not sure Jabari doesn't have just as much potential. After all, he's a full year younger and has grown by leaps and bounds in a very short period of time. Either one would be a great fit.

Ivey and Banchero I have more concerns about. I think if you get a top 4 pick you likely have to take them, but the Kings don't really need another primary scorer with questionable defense, at least not with the current core.
I think Chet is a 5. And I do worry about his ability to hold up as a 5. I think he tracks more as a modern day Paul Gasol than a unicorn 4.

As for the question of do the Kings need another primary scorer? Take the BPA, who is Banchero. Trade Fox if it doesn't work.