Laravia “could see going back as an option”

[The_Jamal]

That group would be fun to watch AND there’s a good chance we win and approach 6-7 seed. Bring Monk off the bench.

Yep. We saw it in spurts at the end of the year. LaRavia plays extremely hard and he's effective. He's the kind of guy the "advanced stat" nerds absolutely love because he impacts winning, even if it doesn't necessarily show up on the stat sheet.

The end of last season could have looked a lot different with a healthy Domas and just NOT playing all of DDR/Monk/LaVine/Domas together at the same time.

 

[KayDee55]

I'd be ecstatic. Flip DDR for draft capital and just fully move forward with massive minutes for Keon/LaRavia/Carter/Keegan around LaVine and Domas. LaRavia is going to be a starting caliber wing, let's be the team that jumps on him early and gives him the role.

I agree, while we only can give him a limited amount for next year, i hope the FO is aggressive in showing him options for after the first year, when he can get more.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Vecenie thought he’d stay if the offers come in at 7.5 a year or less.

 

[Padrino]

Yep. We saw it in spurts at the end of the year. LaRavia plays extremely hard and he's effective. He's the kind of guy the "advanced stat" nerds absolutely love because he impacts winning, even if it doesn't necessarily show up on the stat sheet.

The end of last season could have looked a lot different with a healthy Domas and just NOT playing all of DDR/Monk/LaVine/Domas together at the same time.

Man, I really do resent the hell out of the LaVine acquisition. Because of the souring of Fox's relationship with the franchise and his stated desire to play in San Antonio, the Kings were unlikely to work out an optimal "everybody's happy" kind of a deal. But in fishing for a third team to bring back more substantial "win now" value in the trade, they ended up with a player that everybody knows will be on his way out the door when he's an expiring contract. It's the worst of all worlds. LaVine has never been a winning player, and he gets in the way of younger talent the Kings need to develop and elevate. I don't care how much Fox's value depreciated after he demanded a trade, that's just awful management of Fox as a trade asset. I'm inclined to take Monte at his word when he says it's not the trade he would have preferred to make, and there's no way to prove that it was all Vivek's influence, but it certainly has the suggestion of his fingerprints, given his previously-reported fascination with LaVine and his seeming obsession with short-sighted "win now" moves.

Ultimately, LaVine just ****s up the roster balance when there's plenty of intriguing defensive talent that the Kings need to get into the starting unit. And I really have no idea what Perry's designs are heading into the offseason. But I'll be happy if he's able to 1. trade DDR for... whatever, honestly. 2. if he's able to bring back LaRavia. And 3. if we get to see a unit that features Carter/Ellis/LaRavia/Murray with some frequency next season. I don't even care that much about what the offense looks like, or what its failings will be. Defensive havoc is what I want to see from the Kings going forward.

 

[sactowndog]

Man, I really do resent the hell out of the LaVine acquisition. Because of the souring of Fox's relationship with the franchise and his stated desire to play in San Antonio, the Kings were unlikely to work out an optimal "everybody's happy" kind of a deal. But in fishing for a third team to bring back more substantial "win now" value in the trade, they ended up with a player that everybody knows will be on his way out the door when he's an expiring contract. It's the worst of all worlds. LaVine has never been a winning player, and he gets in the way of younger talent the Kings need to develop and elevate. I don't care how much Fox's value depreciated after he demanded a trade, that's just awful management of Fox as a trade asset. I'm inclined to take Monte at his word when he says it's not the trade he would have preferred to make, and there's no way to prove that it was all Vivek's influence, but it certainly has the suggestion of his fingerprints, given his previously-reported fascination with LaVine and his seeming obsession with short-sighted "win now" moves.

Ultimately, LaVine just ****s up the roster balance when there's plenty of intriguing defensive talent that the Kings need to get into the starting unit. And I really have no idea what Perry's designs are heading into the offseason. But I'll be happy if he's able to 1. trade DDR for... whatever, honestly. 2. if he's able to bring back LaRavia. And 3. if we get to see a unit that features Carter/Ellis/LaRavia/Murray with some frequency next season. I don't even care that much about what the offense looks like, or what its failings will be. Defensive havoc is what I want to see from the Kings going forward.

Yeah the part you left out about the LaVine acquisition is how much it could impact our ability to resign Keon.

As we saw with Bogi, teams can insert lots of nasty clauses into contracts and 60M is a lot of money to commit to the shooting guard spot. Not to mention Keon might want to be a starter. Assuming Ellis is a done deal might be a mistake.

 

[Padrino]

Yeah the part you left out about the LaVine acquisition is how much it could impact our ability to resign Keon.

As we saw with Bogi, teams can insert lots of nasty clauses into contracts and 60M is a lot of money to commit to the shooting guard spot. Not to mention Keon might want to be a starter. Assuming Ellis is a done deal might be a mistake.

You're not wrong in this instance, and it would represent a massive organizational failure if Keon isn't retained.

 

[The_Jamal]

Yeah the part you left out about the LaVine acquisition is how much it could impact our ability to resign Keon.

As we saw with Bogi, teams can insert lots of nasty clauses into contracts and 60M is a lot of money to commit to the shooting guard spot. Not to mention Keon might want to be a starter. Assuming Ellis is a done deal might be a mistake.

I mean, if we can't retain a RFA, then what are we doing here?

The Bogi situation was unique because we "traded" him and a bunch of crap got leaked. Just a messy situation all-around. I'm also fairly certain Keon is maxed at like a 4/53 deal in RFA (Capt, fact check me on this?) because of some rookie scale contract stuff. Which of course, is an incredible bargain that we should not have a problem matching.

 

[Tetsujin]

I mean, if we can't retain a RFA, then what are we doing here?

The Bogi situation was unique because we "traded" him and a bunch of crap got leaked. Just a messy situation all-around. I'm also fairly certain Keon is maxed at like a 4/53 deal in RFA (Capt, fact check me on this?) because of some rookie scale contract stuff. Which of course, is an incredible bargain that we should not have a problem matching.

Above all else, the Bogi situation is different because the Kings seemed to have absolutely zero interest in keeping Bogi on the team and the rest of the league knew it.

 

[twslam07]

I mean, if we can't retain a RFA, then what are we doing here?

The Bogi situation was unique because we "traded" him and a bunch of crap got leaked. Just a messy situation all-around. I'm also fairly certain Keon is maxed at like a 4/53 deal in RFA (Capt, fact check me on this?) because of some rookie scale contract stuff. Which of course, is an incredible bargain that we should not have a problem matching.

I had this question with @Capt. Factorial awhile back, and I don’t think Ellis will have such a cap/restriction on his next contract.

Herb Jones is a good example to show what is similar and what is different. Herb Jones was drafted in the 2nd round and signed a 3 year contract. After this 2nd year, NOP declined his 3rd year option making him a RFA. Since he only had 2 years played at that point, I believe they only had early bird rights meaning they could only offer a max contract of 105% of the average salary.

Ellis was also signed to a 3 year contract, but he was also on a two way deal prior to that 3 year contract. That means if we decline his 3rd year options (making him a RFA), he still would have 3 years played at this point and he'd have full bird rights.

I might have butchered that a bit, but @Capt. Factorial can clean it up if necessary.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I had this question with @Capt. Factorial awhile back, and I don’t think Ellis will have such a cap/restriction on his next contract.

Herb Jones is a good example to show what is similar and what is different. Herb Jones was drafted in the 2nd round and signed a 3 year contract. After this 2nd year, NOP declined his 3rd year option making him a RFA. Since he only had 2 years played at that point, I believe they only had early bird rights meaning they could only offer a max contract of 105% of the average salary.

Ellis was also signed to a 3 year contract, but he was also on a two way deal prior to that 3 year contract. That means if we decline his 3rd year options (making him a RFA), he still would have 3 years played at this point and he'd have full bird rights.

I might have butchered that a bit, but @Capt. Factorial can clean it up if necessary.

OK, let's see.

If we decide to decline Keon's option, we have to make a QO to make him a free agent. The QO would be a whole $2.65M in his case, turns out to be just a tiny bit more than he would have made if we just pick up the option. (Keon missed the "starter" criterion that would have kicked his QO by 52 minutes - not that it's likely to make any difference at all.)

As you say, we would have full Bird Rights on Keon, because he played three seasons with us (two-way deals count). So cap stuff isn't a concern on our part.

Keon's maximum salary is 25% of the salary cap, which is $38.7M (nobody's going to offer that). I don't think there are any restrictions on free agent salary due to him coming off a rookie contract.

Keep in mind, however, that according to my "1 WS = 3% of Salary Cap" rule, Keon was worth north of $22M last year. However, as a guy who is likely to be coming off the bench most anywhere, he's probably not going to get quite that much.

 

[The_Jamal]

OK, let's see.

If we decide to decline Keon's option, we have to make a QO to make him a free agent. The QO would be a whole $2.65M in his case, turns out to be just a tiny bit more than he would have made if we just pick up the option. (Keon missed the "starter" criterion that would have kicked his QO by 52 minutes - not that it's likely to make any difference at all.)

As you say, we would have full Bird Rights on Keon, because he played three seasons with us (two-way deals count). So cap stuff isn't a concern on our part.

Keon's maximum salary is 25% of the salary cap, which is $38.7M (nobody's going to offer that). I don't think there are any restrictions on free agent salary due to him coming off a rookie contract.

Keep in mind, however, that according to my "1 WS = 3% of Salary Cap" rule, Keon was worth north of $22M last year. However, as a guy who is likely to be coming off the bench most anywhere, he's probably not going to get quite that much.

I think most of the league is broke anyway, and it'd be surprising to see one of the few teams with cap drop a 20mil+ contract on him. Even if they did, that's still an easy match at a 4/80 type deal.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Caruso got 4/37 with the Bulls in ‘21 and 4/81 with the Thunder last year. I’d assume Keon is a 4/50 kinda guy

 

[SacTownKid]

Man, I really do resent the hell out of the LaVine acquisition. Because of the souring of Fox's relationship with the franchise and his stated desire to play in San Antonio, the Kings were unlikely to work out an optimal "everybody's happy" kind of a deal. But in fishing for a third team to bring back more substantial "win now" value in the trade, they ended up with a player that everybody knows will be on his way out the door when he's an expiring contract. It's the worst of all worlds. LaVine has never been a winning player, and he gets in the way of younger talent the Kings need to develop and elevate. I don't care how much Fox's value depreciated after he demanded a trade, that's just awful management of Fox as a trade asset. I'm inclined to take Monte at his word when he says it's not the trade he would have preferred to make, and there's no way to prove that it was all Vivek's influence, but it certainly has the suggestion of his fingerprints, given his previously-reported fascination with LaVine and his seeming obsession with short-sighted "win now" moves.

Ultimately, LaVine just ****s up the roster balance when there's plenty of intriguing defensive talent that the Kings need to get into the starting unit. And I really have no idea what Perry's designs are heading into the offseason. But I'll be happy if he's able to 1. trade DDR for... whatever, honestly. 2. if he's able to bring back LaRavia. And 3. if we get to see a unit that features Carter/Ellis/LaRavia/Murray with some frequency next season. I don't even care that much about what the offense looks like, or what its failings will be. Defensive havoc is what I want to see from the Kings going forward.

LaVine and all that working out is on Doug now. One benefit of the league kind of starting to play smaller at the 1-3 is that LaVine has no excuses, he needs to be playing more at SF. He doesn't look physically outmatched when plays there most of the time.

 

[SacTownKid]

Caruso got 4/37 with the Bulls in ‘21 and 4/81 with the Thunder last year. I’d assume Keon is a 4/50 kinda guy

If Keon wanted more than that the Kings need to let the market set itself. If the Kings really want him back he's not turning down money from a team able to offer him the most anyway unless he really wants out. This upcoming season could end up with a bunch guys wanting out, we'll see, haha.

 

[The_Jamal]

Caruso got 4/37 with the Bulls in ‘21 and 4/81 with the Thunder last year. I’d assume Keon is a 4/50 kinda guy

That was Caruso coming off being like the key role player on the LAL title defense too.

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

If Keon wanted more than that the Kings need to let the market set itself. If the Kings really want him back he's not turning down money from a team able to offer him the most anyway unless he really wants out. This upcoming season could end up with a bunch guys wanting out, we'll see, haha.

If true, perfect time for Vivek to (finally) commit to an actual rebuild.

 

[sactowndog]

OK, let's see.

If we decide to decline Keon's option, we have to make a QO to make him a free agent. The QO would be a whole $2.65M in his case, turns out to be just a tiny bit more than he would have made if we just pick up the option. (Keon missed the "starter" criterion that would have kicked his QO by 52 minutes - not that it's likely to make any difference at all.)

As you say, we would have full Bird Rights on Keon, because he played three seasons with us (two-way deals count). So cap stuff isn't a concern on our part.

Keon's maximum salary is 25% of the salary cap, which is $38.7M (nobody's going to offer that). I don't think there are any restrictions on free agent salary due to him coming off a rookie contract.

Keep in mind, however, that according to my "1 WS = 3% of Salary Cap" rule, Keon was worth north of $22M last year. However, as a guy who is likely to be coming off the bench most anywhere, he's probably not going to get quite that much.

Not sure why you think a guy that plays good defense and shoots 43.3% on C&S 3’s is most likely to come off the bench most anywhere.

The risk is if following your WS metric someone does offer him 22M to be the starting 2 guard. You have the following at the 2 guard

LaVine: 47,499
Ellis: 22,000
Monk: 18,797
———————-
And then depending on where you slot DeRozan 24,750

That is a lot of money tied up in four guys that essentially play the same 2 Guard position. Put a no trade clause or trade kicker in that contract and it could be really hard to match.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

If Keon wanted more than that the Kings need to let the market set itself. If the Kings really want him back he's not turning down money from a team able to offer him the most anyway unless he really wants out. This upcoming season could end up with a bunch guys wanting out, we'll see, haha.

Restricted free agency is fundamentally letting the market set itself.

 

[SacTownKid]

Restricted free agency is fundamentally letting the market set itself.

Yeah, possibly in a bloated sense though and that could actually hurt the Kings more if a team wants to bid him up and the full MLE on it's own might be just that for what Keon has shown up to this point. Restricted FA is probably best if the Kings were strongly against losing sign and trade leverage which the value there is probably meh at this point anyway unless Keon goes nuclear next season. If a team sees Keon the same way they saw Bruce Brown or KCP, then this is problematic anyway because we saw the value there going downhill immediately. I say let the market set itself when you know whether this is Keon or there's more. Contract years are always a gamble as to how real they are too, but what the heck.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Not sure why you think a guy that plays good defense and shoots 43.3% on C&S 3’s is most likely to come off the bench most anywhere.

The risk is if following your WS metric someone does offer him 22M to be the starting 2 guard. You have the following at the 2 guard

LaVine: 47,499
Ellis: 22,000
Monk: 18,797
———————-
And then depending on where you slot DeRozan 24,750

That is a lot of money tied up in four guys that essentially play the same 2 Guard position. Put a no trade clause or trade kicker in that contract and it could be really hard to match.

Because Keon is not a PG, he doesn't have the size to be a legit SF, and there are a lot of SGs in the league that are certainly going to start over him. He's a rotation player anywhere, but you might be able to find only five teams where he would be an obvious starter (of course all teams will look somewhat different next year).

He's also only got 3000 total NBA minutes under his belt, so he's relatively green and his career path isn't exactly clear yet. His shooting is on low-ish volume and may regress. His defense should stick, but he's slight and not remotely switchable off the perimeter.

I like Keon, but we should recognize what he is and what he isn't. What he is is a solid contributor as a rotation player who provides guard defense and can hit an open three. What he isn't is a star player who is irreplaceable and should be expected to be one of the top three players on a playoff team. Pay him accordingly.

I doubt that DDR will be on the Kings next season. Monk may not be on the team either. And just because the formula says he's worth about $22M, that doesn't mean that any team will offer that. At any rate, that's the beauty of restricted free agency - if somebody offers more than you want to pay, you don't HAVE to match.

 

[sactowndog]

Because Keon is not a PG, he doesn't have the size to be a legit SF, and there are a lot of SGs in the league that are certainly going to start over him. He's a rotation player anywhere, but you might be able to find only five teams where he would be an obvious starter (of course all teams will look somewhat different next year).

He's also only got 3000 total NBA minutes under his belt, so he's relatively green and his career path isn't exactly clear yet. His shooting is on low-ish volume and may regress. His defense should stick, but he's slight and not remotely switchable off the perimeter.

I like Keon, but we should recognize what he is and what he isn't. What he is is a solid contributor as a rotation player who provides guard defense and can hit an open three. What he isn't is a star player who is irreplaceable and should be expected to be one of the top three players on a playoff team. Pay him accordingly.

I doubt that DDR will be on the Kings next season. Monk may not be on the team either. And just because the formula says he's worth about $22M, that doesn't mean that any team will offer that. At any rate, that's the beauty of restricted free agency - if somebody offers more than you want to pay, you don't HAVE to match.

Because Keon is not a PG, he doesn't have the size to be a legit SF,
In this we agree:

His shooting is on low-ish volume and may regress. His defense should stick, but he's slight and not remotely switchable off the perimeter.
Given he also shoots 84.9% from the line, I think a lot of teams could convince themselves the catch and shoot 3 point shooting will stick.

And just because the formula says he's worth about $22M, that doesn't mean that any team will offer that. At any rate, that's the beauty of restricted free agency - if somebody offers more than you want to pay, you don't HAVE to match.

Not sure how I got that one to work lol…..

They may not but a) I trust your value measurement and b) I think you understate the value of a guy who plays good defense and can make an open 3. I think of Caruso as a comparable player and he makes 20M a year. c) my whole point is the Kings may well not match and Ellis returning is far from a done deal.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Not sure how I got that one to work lol…..

Since the board update things are a little different in how quotes display when you're writing your comment. The key to splitting quotes is to go to the upper right and hit the icon of the brackets (hover: "Toggle BB Code"). That will put you into a "text" version where you can manually put in the start and stop points for the quote.

So, for instance, if I wanted to split your quote I would manipulate the stuff in the BB Code version as follows:

[ Q U O T E="sactowndog, post: 1884195, member: 44872"]
Your comment part 1
[ / Q U O T E ]

My comment part 1

[ Q U O T E]
Your comment part 2
[ / Q U O T E ]

My comment part 2

I put the spaces into the "QUOTE" stuff so that it wouldn't actually do a quote, take the spaces out to quote for real. That should be all it takes!