KMart can lead the league in scoring this season

[Bricklayer]

The problem with this approach is the assumption that ALL FTs came as a result of a foul on a missed shot. KMart takes most the of Technical FTs for the team. He is also very good at making his shot and getting to the line for another FT. This would make (dividing FTs by 2) KMart actually look less effecient that he is. And since all players are graded the same way, I say leave the system alone.

You really need to read the rest of the posts in this thread.

This issue has been covered backwards and forwards -- I was going to estimate 75% of Kevin's FTs (divided by 2 of course) counting as shots. Factorial mentioned that the standard number used in these calculations by NBA statistician types is 88%, so my 75% might have been correcting too severely. In any case, you have tagged a potential distortion, but it is not nearly as great as the distortion of not counting the FTs at all, and it has already been adjusted for by several people.

Be that as it may the math on the corrected stat is not that hard, and should be accurate within a few tenths of a percent.

Basically for Kevin last year:

At 88% of FTs/2 = shots:

Kevin's Total Points in 07/08 = 1443
Kevin's FGA in 07/08 = 914
Kevin's FTA in 07/08 = 578

Points / FGA + (.88 * FTA/2)

1453 / 914 + (.88 * 578/2)

1453 / 914 + 254.32

1453 / 1168.32 = 1.24 PPP (Points Per Possession)


At 75% of FT/2 = shots:

Kevin's Total Points in 07/08 = 1443
Kevin's FGA in 07/08 = 914
Kevin's FTA in 07/08 = 578

Points / FGA + (.75 * FTA/2)

1453 / 914 + (.75 * 578/2)

1453 / 914 + 216.75

1453 / 1130.75 = 1.28 PPP (Points Per Possession)

----------------------------------------------------

Same math for Paul Pierce last year:

At 88%:
Pierce's Total Points in 07/08 = 1570
Pierce's FGA in 07/08 = 1098
Pierce's FTA in 07/08 = 485

Points / FGA + (.88 * FTA/2)

1570 / 1098 + (.88 * 485/2)

1570 / 1098 + 213.4

1570 / 1311.4 = 1.20 PPP (Points Per Possession)

At 75%:
Pierce's Total Points in 07/08 = 1570
Pierce's FGA in 07/08 = 1098
Pierce's FTA in 07/08 = 485

Points / FGA + (.75 * FTA/2)

1570 / 1098 + (.75 * 485/2)

1570 / 1098 + 181.9

1570 / 1279.9 = 1.23 PPP (Points Per Possession)


The point not being that Kevin is not right up there with the major scorers, and perhaps even leading them (more math than I care to engage in), but that his numbers are not nearly so outrageously out of touch once you correct a rather blatantly incomplete stat. Having a "points per shot" stat that gives you the points for your FTs without counting the FTs as taking any shots/possessions at all to make is no different than having a rebounds per possession stat that includes offensive rebounds in your rebounding total but does not count trips down to the offensive side of the floor as possessions. Huge distortion, and one that disproprtinately inflates the numbers for a good offensive rebounder, just as the primitive PPS stat inflates it for guys who shoot lots of FTs (and Kevin shoots more than anyone).

 

[RalphySampson]

If I would have known this thread was going to turn our to be a Calculus class, I never would have made it. I can't believe the complexity that some posters have taken this to.

 

[kupman]

The problem with this approach is the assumption that ALL FTs came as a result of a foul on a missed shot. KMart takes most the of Technical FTs for the team. He is also very good at making his shot and getting to the line for another FT. This would make (dividing FTs by 2) KMart actually look less effecient that he is. And since all players are graded the same way, I say leave the system alone.

Hey, I am just trying.

Here's another idea:

Scoring efficiency =

total points scored/ (number of posessions ending with Kmart in last possession of the ball - Kmart turnovers)

 

[kupman]

If I would have known this thread was going to turn our to be a Calculus class, I never would have made it. I can't believe the complexity that some posters have taken this to.

I think that we are just really, really bored.....and kind of geeky.

 

[kennadog]

I think that we are just really, really bored.....and kind of geeky.

Not only that, but "scoring leader" is a stat, so that's an open invitation to stat geeks everywhere.

 

[Kingsgurl]

Thank God real ball is about to begin. I like stats as much as the next person (though not as much as SOME) but we can not live on stats alone! Give me a game, dammit.

 

[Jaylee209]

Reggie, telling Grant that he wants Kevin to average atleast 15-20 shots. That's what I want to hear! For use to be competitive every night, Kevin has to score a bunch of points.

 

[Bricklayer]

Reggie, telling Grant that he wants Kevin to average atleast 15-20 shots. That's what I want to hear! For use to be competitive every night, Kevin has to score a bunch of points.

Last year Kevin averaged 15 FGA/gm, + another 4-5 shots that ended up as FTs. ITs a jump, but a small one, from what he has alreayd been doing. And that was in relatively low minutes for a major starter (36.3).

 

[Jaylee209]

I'm just hoping he shoots 20 times a game. Seems like whenever he does he tends to score over 30 or more points, with the same efficiency as well!