RalphySampson
G-League
Very interesting. The 2nd place guy isn't really even close to him either.
KMart can lead the league in scoring this season
- Thread starter RalphySampson
- Start date
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Yes -- its the consistent distorting factor.
Kevin is a good 3pt shooter, and so gets extra points that way, but he only shot .456 last year. Only when you start giving him his huge number of FT points magically without it counting as any sort of shot or possession or anything do his "points per shot" or whatever get ridiculous.
Put another way:
Player A:
50% shooter, shoots 10-20FG, Total = 20pts
PPS = 1.0 (20 shots to produce 20pts)
Player B:
50% shooter, shoots 5-10FG = 10pts, but also hits 10 FTs, Total = 20pts
PPS = 2.0 (10 shots to produce 20pts)
Which is of course nonsense and only happens if the FTs are somehow credited to one side of the equation (points) without being credited to the other (shots).
Put another another way:
Johnny has two apple trees, they produced 10 apples each for him last year
So Johnny had 10 apples + 10 apples = 20 fruit last year from his two trees.
Conclusion: Johnny earned 10 fruit per apple tree
Susie has an apple tree, it produced 10 fruit for her last year. She also has an orange tree, it produced 10 oranges for her last year.
So Susie had 10 apples + 10 oranges = 20 fruit fom her trees.
Conclusion: Susie earned 20 fruit per apple tree
Bigger Conclusion: Susie's apple tree is twice as efficent as Johnny's
Which again is clearly wrong. Susie's apple tree is getting credited with all of her fruit (icluding oranges) without any acknowledgement that she had an orange tree too.
Put another another another way:
Joe earns $25,000 working as a salesman, he supplements this by earning $25,000 working as a security guard at night. Joe's wife Sarah stays home playing sudoku. Total household income = $50,000. Total Jobs by Joe = 2.
Conlusion: Joe's household earns $25,000 per job he has
Sam earns $25,000 working as a salesman. Sam's wife Bambi earns $25,000 working as a secretary. Total household income = $50,000. Total Jobs by Sam = 1.
Conlusion: Sam's household earns $50,000 per job he has
Bigger Conclusion: Sam earns twice as much for his household per job as Joe does
And again, its that same error. An error of framing. Sam gets all the credit for his wife's money as well as his own, without her job counting in the per job category.
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Heuge
Starter
Actually on this list, only Peirce and Roy have shoot less FT then Martin.
The main problem here is you're framing the wording of the conclusion to prove your result. And, by extension, you're drawing a conclusion that is so erroneous on its face (i.e. any grower or anyone else interested in the statistics being presented would know immediately they were wrong) that it's simply not applicable to comparison to Martin's situation.
The same is true for this example. You're working backwards from an expected/desired result to create a scenario whereby that result/conclusion meets your needs.
Your conclusions leave out key factors. What exactly is the key factor people are leaving out when talking about Martin's efficiency and ability to generate points? Points is points and he's the only one putting the ball - one ball - through the basket - one basket. There isn't an orange tree and there isn't anyone else shooting his shots.
I'm more fascinated by the chauvinist meme that housewives/SAHM's sit around playing sudoku...
Entity
Hall of Famer
I like the way when arguing against Kevin in the pts per shot stat. that they always bring up FT and 3 pointers as if none of the other guys on that list get to line or shoot 3 pointers.
The fact is you just want to make sure that nobody mentions Kevin in the same breath as the others on that list because they are "franchise". It pisses you off for someone to even think Kevin might be close. Why? becuase well he isn't But he is not a world behind like some tend to think. In fact if we do somehow get that "franchise" guy be it PG,PF, or C (it would have to be one of those) We would be a very dangerous team. Kevin may not be the best 1st option. But he would be the best if not damn close to the best 2nd option in the league.
The fact is you just want to make sure that nobody mentions Kevin in the same breath as the others on that list because they are "franchise". It pisses you off for someone to even think Kevin might be close. Why? becuase well he isn't But he is not a world behind like some tend to think. In fact if we do somehow get that "franchise" guy be it PG,PF, or C (it would have to be one of those) We would be a very dangerous team. Kevin may not be the best 1st option. But he would be the best if not damn close to the best 2nd option in the league.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Its a simple logical exercise merely backed out to easily understandable SAT like terms.
There is NO difference, NONE, between my examples A, B, C. A being the basketball statistics version. Each was constructed identically with nothing more than a change in terms to expose the fallacy of not counting those oragnes, not counting Bambi's salary, or yes, not counting FTAs when making PPS statistics. In each case it is blatantly wrong -- you cannot, in any system or any calculation, add in an outside number to one side of the equation and not the other without distorting the entire thing.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
3 things:
1) the issue is that this is largely like handing out grades to people based on their height, when you own son is in the class and just so happens to be the tallest boy in class. Kevin led the league in FTM and FTA per game -- NO player in the entire league benefits from as much of a distorting effect when you magically give them their FT points without accounting for those FTs. Its like being a Orlando Magic fan and choosing a statistic which adds rebounds to points without mentioning the rebounds. And oh, do we have Dwight Howard on the team? Really?
2) And here is the thing -- if you properly account for the distortion of the FTs Kevin might still lead all the guys the OP listed. By my calculations the real number is about 1.28 for Kevin. 1.23 for Pierce. 1.17 for Iverson etc. But the margin would drop significantly. It is a false aggrandizement, and one not even particularly needed unless you are intent on proving too much.
3) People remain confused about what makes a franchise player. Being the most efficenit scorer in the league STILL does not make you a franchise player. Being a franchise player is about how much better you make everyone else, not yourself. Its those 5 assists a game, defense, and unstoppable in the clutch ability Kobe adds. The interior domination of a guy like Howard or Duncan, covering for everybody's mistakes, making sure the other team only gets 1 shot and is done. Juse beign a scorer, no matter how you measure the efficiency is just the start, not the end of the franchise player consideration.
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uolj
Starter
Yeah, but he also earns those by being good at free throw shooting.
...
Points per shot is fine as a quick and dirty method of indicating efficiency as long as those who use it do so with the awareness that it isn't nearly as telling as a decently constructed points per possession statistic. Any idea that PPS is as accurate as PPP is just wrong.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
When I say "my calculations" I took account of that by assuming that only 75% of the FTs represented extra shots, with the rest being 3pt plays, being fouled while taking a three (hence the one extra FT) & technicals.
Interesting thing with that is this: Since Kevin gets freebie points every game via technicals choosing 75% could be about right. But the % would be higher for a lesser FT shooter who does not get to take those freebies (for them the only time FTs do not count as shots would be on 3pt plays). So for others it might be 85% or some such, higher for a midrange jumpshooter, lower for a post player or slasher more likely to get continuation fouls.
BUT, really freebies on technicals should not be counted at all, as they come outside the flow of the game and not because of acheivement.
BUT 2, there is some advantage to having a good FT shooter around to take them (although likely only slight, Kevin shoots 87% from the line, and most teams will have at least one 80% shooter out there to take them).
RalphySampson
G-League
IMO, there is way too much over thinking going on here. LeBron, Kobe, all shoot a lot of FT's and they already pretty much are at their max shot attempts per game, and if anything Kobe's shot attempts might go down this year. Yes, Kevin has a bit lower shot attempts per game because he gets to the FT so often, but the main point here is that he WILL get even more shots mainly because Artest is gone.
My prediction is that he will take at least 5-7 more attempts per game. Obviously, some of these "attempts" won't count because he'll get fouled, but I think you could project an extra 5-7 points per game from those extra attempts and that would get him close to the scoring title.
This doesn't mean he is in the same class as a Kobe or LeBron. He's not. He's just an incredibly efficient scorer and I don't expect that to change this year.
My prediction is that he will take at least 5-7 more attempts per game. Obviously, some of these "attempts" won't count because he'll get fouled, but I think you could project an extra 5-7 points per game from those extra attempts and that would get him close to the scoring title.
This doesn't mean he is in the same class as a Kobe or LeBron. He's not. He's just an incredibly efficient scorer and I don't expect that to change this year.
Martin becoming a scoring champion would be nice, but I'd rather see him improve his defense. He would just be another selfish player if he would not exert more effort on defense this season.
My question is why can't Martin play decent defense with all the athleticism that he has?
So, he will just let the other Kings work their bodies hard to defend while he gets the bigger credit for scoring that much?
My question is why can't Martin play decent defense with all the athleticism that he has?
So, he will just let the other Kings work their bodies hard to defend while he gets the bigger credit for scoring that much?
I don't think any of us are saying Martin isn't a good scorer, and he is definitely fairly efficient. I think the point is that we shouldn't base his talent on points per shot and things like that which don't take into consideration his FTs and such. That said, it is very good that Martin is good in drawing fouls and also converting on his free throws. Just using the point per shot thing as an argument isn't very valid in comparing him to other players.
kupman
Starter
right now:
scoring efficiency = total points scored/ shots taken
(this does make Martin look very efficient)
Perhaps a better stat:
scoring efficiency = total points scored/ shots taken + (FTs attempted/2)
This will control for Martin's uncanny ability to get to the line - which is a good thing given that he shoot such a high percentage from the FT line. I am betting that Martin still looks pretty good relative to the rest of the league using this stat.
scoring efficiency = total points scored/ shots taken
(this does make Martin look very efficient)
Perhaps a better stat:
scoring efficiency = total points scored/ shots taken + (FTs attempted/2)
This will control for Martin's uncanny ability to get to the line - which is a good thing given that he shoot such a high percentage from the FT line. I am betting that Martin still looks pretty good relative to the rest of the league using this stat.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
some approach like that, yeah.
this is what I was attempting to do -- except I think to be fair the you have to make it .75 FTAs / 2. My reasoning there being that not every FT is off a two shot foul. Some are continuation Fts, or the third FT when you are fouled on a 3pt play, or in Kevin's case especially, the technical foul freebies. So you only count 75% of the FTAs attempted /2 as shots.
And yes Kevin is still going to be way up there because he shoots FTs at a high percentage and its like he took another 5 shots a game as an 87% field goal shooter. But that's stil nowhere near the inflated numebr you get when you make him an infinitely good shooter by giving him the FT points without accounting for the possessions he uses to get them.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Having not read all the posts ( intellectually lazy ) I'm not sure I get the point of this thread. Kevin is a good player and a large asset to the Kings. Who cares whether he leads the league in scoring or not?
As far as free throws go, Karl Malone led the league almost every year in free throw attempts and I never heard anyone on his team complaining about it. Applying the same free throw logic to Malone, its obvious he didn't deserve to be an all-star. Oh wait, he did grab 12 boards a game didn't he? Well, maybe he did deserve it.
As I said, I don't get the point of the thread and it's directed conclusion to prove what? Kevin's not as good as some would like to beleive? Who cares? Its not possible for Kevin to lead the league in scoring? Who knows? And, that if he does, it doesn't count, because he shoots way too many free throws.
Well, I'm hungry, so I'm off to eat some apple's and oranges.
As far as free throws go, Karl Malone led the league almost every year in free throw attempts and I never heard anyone on his team complaining about it. Applying the same free throw logic to Malone, its obvious he didn't deserve to be an all-star. Oh wait, he did grab 12 boards a game didn't he? Well, maybe he did deserve it.
As I said, I don't get the point of the thread and it's directed conclusion to prove what? Kevin's not as good as some would like to beleive? Who cares? Its not possible for Kevin to lead the league in scoring? Who knows? And, that if he does, it doesn't count, because he shoots way too many free throws.
Well, I'm hungry, so I'm off to eat some apple's and oranges.
uolj
Starter
I do.
The Kings aren't winning the championship this year, but it would still be pretty neat to have our guy lead the league in scoring. Heck, it's already pretty neat that he's in the top 10.
I rooted for Jim Les to win the 3-point shooting contest even though it didn't really matter. I was sad when Kenny Smith layed the ball in instead of missing the dunk and getting another chance. I actually like it when the Kings do well in stats and competitions that don't specifically lead to on the court wins.
kupman
Starter
Total FTAs/2:
Total FTAs includes just that - FTAs from 2 shot fouls, 1 shot fouls and 1 shot following the technical.
Yes, but if you are trying to turn that into shots used in the game, that does not work.
Technicals are not part of a posession. "And-1"s are on top of a possession, not to be counted separately.
As best I can tell, the usual multiplier in the advanced stats for free throws is 0.44 - if you take the number of free throws attempted and multiply by 0.44 you get approximately the number of shots taken to get those free throws (technically, the shots that don't show up in the box score). So dividing by 2 is off on one side, and Brick's 0.375 multiplier is about equally far off on the other side.
Of course, the 0.44 is only a league-wide estimate. Players who are more likely than average to shoot technical free throws (Kevin) or get fouled on threes (Kevin) or get more and-1s (Kevin? I dunno.) should have their multiplier go down towards Brick's number. The maximum possible multiplier would be 0.5 - for a player whose free throws exclusively came on 2-point shot attempts which he missed.
Anyway, to calculate points-per-shot as intended per this thread, the correct formula would be:
PPS = Points / (FGA + (m*FTA) )
where m is a multiplier that we don't know precisely, but is probably a bit less than 0.44 but likely not much lower than 0.40.
Of course, the 0.44 is only a league-wide estimate. Players who are more likely than average to shoot technical free throws (Kevin) or get fouled on threes (Kevin) or get more and-1s (Kevin? I dunno.) should have their multiplier go down towards Brick's number. The maximum possible multiplier would be 0.5 - for a player whose free throws exclusively came on 2-point shot attempts which he missed.
Anyway, to calculate points-per-shot as intended per this thread, the correct formula would be:
PPS = Points / (FGA + (m*FTA) )
where m is a multiplier that we don't know precisely, but is probably a bit less than 0.44 but likely not much lower than 0.40.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
My head is starting to hurt! It used to be such a simple game. I wonder if I can estimate the size of my prostrate gland by the amount of times I urinate during the night after drinking 6 beers versus 0 beers. But if I add the into the equation the fact that I walked my dog in the hot sun, and perspired, that might nulify one beer. There must be a way!
Beer = urination / prostrate + (m*DOGWALK)
i was waiting for captain factorial to chime in on this topic.
Hmm. I appear to have developed a reputation!
If your head hurts, you should probably just drink a beer. That ought to help.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
You didn't. I just thought that looking at Kobe in his MVP year, with ALL those games against the 3 teams you mentioned, and noting that he did not achieve "unstoppable" status by your definition was, well, noteworthy.
I guess Kobe was just stoppable last season. MVP season performances will do that to you.
Just a note...once again unbecoming behavior that violates the board's policy. And BTW, I neither like nor dislike what you said in this snippet, aside from the personal affront.
Yes, I do.
And if you don't like it, ....oh, never mind...
We have been down this thread's path before.
Without playing the efficiency stat game here, my position is still that Kevin's ability to score in the way that he does, while not really mimicing the Kobes and LeBrons, does not automatically make him a lesser player, just a different one. He HAS been getting greater attention by 2 or 3 defenders over the last season, and it was certainly that way in pre-season and he did superbly. As an aside, this is something John Salmons never has to contend with while he is dribbling around looking for an opening. And despite all this, Kevin continues to do his thing to contribute with a hefty scoring average.
Kevin has enhanced his ability to score by his developing a keen ability to get by his man and draw contact and also maintain balance after getting hit and still getting off a decent shot (more 3-pt play opportunities). It's not flopping in mid-air as some seem to believe. Coupled with the fact that he shoots the ball well from both field and line, and rarely takes a forced shot (not typical of almost every big time scorer), these things lead to his being in the league's upper echelon of efficiency (however you want to measure it).
I still think what is bothersome to many is that Kevin still has no power game, no low-post game, and mostly does his damage with speed, agility, and finesse. That is certainly not descriptive of Kobe, LeBron, MJ, etc. So for many folks it's hard to recast that image of what a great player is, because it is engrained that it mostly has to follow a set blueprint.
Well, my only response is that Kevin's "alternate set of plans" have resulted in his increasing his scoring average every year, and now he is Top 10 scorer in the game. Opposing teams have known about him, since the season he became a starter, and certainly he was the opponents' focal point last season and likely the year before as well. But he still keeps wratcheting up his game a notch each time out.
He looks "stoppable" (no definition offered here), but his scoring stats say otherwise.
Without playing the efficiency stat game here, my position is still that Kevin's ability to score in the way that he does, while not really mimicing the Kobes and LeBrons, does not automatically make him a lesser player, just a different one. He HAS been getting greater attention by 2 or 3 defenders over the last season, and it was certainly that way in pre-season and he did superbly. As an aside, this is something John Salmons never has to contend with while he is dribbling around looking for an opening. And despite all this, Kevin continues to do his thing to contribute with a hefty scoring average.
Kevin has enhanced his ability to score by his developing a keen ability to get by his man and draw contact and also maintain balance after getting hit and still getting off a decent shot (more 3-pt play opportunities). It's not flopping in mid-air as some seem to believe. Coupled with the fact that he shoots the ball well from both field and line, and rarely takes a forced shot (not typical of almost every big time scorer), these things lead to his being in the league's upper echelon of efficiency (however you want to measure it).
I still think what is bothersome to many is that Kevin still has no power game, no low-post game, and mostly does his damage with speed, agility, and finesse. That is certainly not descriptive of Kobe, LeBron, MJ, etc. So for many folks it's hard to recast that image of what a great player is, because it is engrained that it mostly has to follow a set blueprint.
Well, my only response is that Kevin's "alternate set of plans" have resulted in his increasing his scoring average every year, and now he is Top 10 scorer in the game. Opposing teams have known about him, since the season he became a starter, and certainly he was the opponents' focal point last season and likely the year before as well. But he still keeps wratcheting up his game a notch each time out.
He looks "stoppable" (no definition offered here), but his scoring stats say otherwise.
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