KINGS PICKING 4TH IN 2022 NBA DRAFT!
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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Yeah agreed on them being 4/3's, but you can still have a fun amount of versatility with all of them. Run Smallball forward stuff with them at the 3/4/5, run the big-ball you suggested.
And yeah the pick probably wouldn't convey in 2023, but we'll be damn glad we had it if things go bad with Sabonis in 2 years. Or we can flip it for another piece to put around this core. Lack of future flexibility has been one of the main disasters of this franchise in the last 15 years. Acquiring more with the team headed to a major pivot point (The Sabonis UFA), just seems like a great idea all-around.
And yeah the pick probably wouldn't convey in 2023, but we'll be damn glad we had it if things go bad with Sabonis in 2 years. Or we can flip it for another piece to put around this core. Lack of future flexibility has been one of the main disasters of this franchise in the last 15 years. Acquiring more with the team headed to a major pivot point (The Sabonis UFA), just seems like a great idea all-around.
Haven't listened yet but this person often generates good content.
(I got into draft podcasts and write ups a lot more last year but didn't pay any attention to Davion because I didn't see us drafting him. Not sure how much time I will give this year but still work from home sometimes so never know).
If Ivey is BPA and is taken by McNair then he just has to deal him before the season begins, (preferably at the draft) no ifs ands or buts. He can't try to play him the 1st half of the season to increase his value at the trade deadline. If he doesn't trade him by the start of the upcoming season, I think that puts a huge cloud on the entire season because of all the compromises that are foisted upon Brown, the main one being winning enough to get into the playoffs.
I'm starting to think Chet is the guy who falls.
Smith Jr and Banchero likely have the highest floors in the top 4, and with this draft lacking a sure fire superstar prospect, I think they both go top 3.
So then we have Ivey, who has a lot of "highest ceiling in the draft" chatter vs Chet, who has a unicorn skillset and a DNP build. Of the two, Ivey seems to be both the safe pick and the upside pick, with Chet likely topping out as a great complimentary player, but not a number 1 option.
I'd be happy with Chet if it goes down like this, if he wasn't such a twig he'd probably be a lock for #1, as such I'll probably have low expectations for the first few seasons - dude needs at least 30 lbs of muscle just to protect his body, much less bang with NBA players, and I'm not sure his frame could even put on much more than that.
Smith Jr and Banchero likely have the highest floors in the top 4, and with this draft lacking a sure fire superstar prospect, I think they both go top 3.
So then we have Ivey, who has a lot of "highest ceiling in the draft" chatter vs Chet, who has a unicorn skillset and a DNP build. Of the two, Ivey seems to be both the safe pick and the upside pick, with Chet likely topping out as a great complimentary player, but not a number 1 option.
I'd be happy with Chet if it goes down like this, if he wasn't such a twig he'd probably be a lock for #1, as such I'll probably have low expectations for the first few seasons - dude needs at least 30 lbs of muscle just to protect his body, much less bang with NBA players, and I'm not sure his frame could even put on much more than that.
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I am honest to god scared to death of Chet's bust potential, but it seems like that wouldn't scare off OKC or HOU who are playing the long game?
Maybe wishful thinking to get me to believe there is a shot we can land Jabari at the end of the day. Even if we have to trade a future pick to do it I think now is the time to do so (2024 though, if possible).
Maybe wishful thinking to get me to believe there is a shot we can land Jabari at the end of the day. Even if we have to trade a future pick to do it I think now is the time to do so (2024 though, if possible).
the only bust potential I see with Chet is Injury Bust Potential. The guy is a guaranteed 2 blocks per game, a free dunk from 5-8 feet with just a little space, and can hit the 3 that will never be blocked. He also never shied away from contact even against Duren who has an NBA body. Kid wants to be legit and the worse he could be IMO is a Javale McGee with a 3pt shot
yeah, to be clear it's mostly health concerns I have about him. Though I've never seen a body like his have success worthy of a top 5 pick either, but if I had a crystal ball that said he'd average 70+ games a season through his first seven years in the league I would have no bones about the pick knowing nothing else.
Yeah, I talk myself into him, but then I'll watch highlights, or even just see a picture of him and think "this dude is getting snapped in half in practice"... I'd be less scared if he showed the agility/speed to slide to 3, but he doesn't, and if he did he'd go #1 anyways.
Jabari is definitely the dream, and might not even be a pipe dream! Here's to OKC and HOU playing the long game!
Jabari is definitely the dream, and might not even be a pipe dream! Here's to OKC and HOU playing the long game!
I would take Banchero, because I think he's the best player in the draft. Or Smith Jr, because of the potential. If it's Chet or Ivey, trade down and get Daniels, Mathurin, or Dieng. I think Ivey has more warts than most think. And I don't think Chet produces at an all star level until his second contract.
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I'm good with any in the consensus top 3 plus Ivey and Sharpe. But if I had to bet on 1 guys skill set translating to the NBA its Banchero. The face up game is there, passing ability and under rated defense. I think he's the only guy of the 3 bigs that can be a true #1 at the next level. Although he's not the ideal fit next to Sabonis I'd love to see 2 big guys make beautiful basketball again. Give me Banchero so we can have our 2022 version of Vlade and C Webb.
I'm well into over-thinking it territory and for me that means I want to draft about 5 players in the lottery (like I do every year) and ride an all-rookie lineup to a championship. They're not all going to be stars, maybe only 2 or 3 of them will be but how are we supposed to know which 2 or 3? It's maddening. But overall I'm happy with our draft position and I'm confident that Monte will make a well-informed if not particularly tantalizing choice like he does every year.
Some brief thoughts on where I am with these prospects right now and then I'll probably tap out on this conversation for awhile.
Jabari Smith Jr. - There's no chance he falls to 4 so we'd have to trade up. I don't think he's a franchise player but he should be a solid starter for a long time in a 3 and D role. He may be closer to Otto Porter than Kevin Durant. My gut feeling is whoever ends up with him will be underwhelmed. So much of his value is tied to his 3pt shooting and other than once in a generation flukes like Steph Curry, shooting is just inherently volatile. Still... we do need shooting so you can't argue with the fit here.
Chet Holmgren - In a vacuum this is the perfect NBA prospect. He's huge, agile, and has fantastic instincts. His defensive impact is obvious both statistically and on tape. He can handle well enough in the open floor to help push the pace on fast breaks and he can stretch the floor. However, the relatively few impact big men left in the league right now are built like tanks (so you can't bully them physically) and tend to beat defenses with finesse rather than quickness or length. In other words, he will need to get stronger to achieve stardom. I get why everyone is hyped but he's an outlier in terms of what is working in the NBA right now so we'd be doubling down on either: (A) Winning in an unconventional way or (B) The league rules changing in the next 10 years so that perimeter-oriented scorers no longer enjoy every single advantage on both ends of the floor. He's perfect for OKC so I hope he's the pick at #2.
Paolo Banchero - He's never measured up to the hype on my viewings so maybe he's the one guy from this class that I'm totally wrong about. (Like previous genius takes of mine such as James "he looks like a slower Baron Davis" Harden and Jayson "all he does is shoot mid-range turnarounds" Tatum) Unlike Jabari, Paolo excels at creating shots off the dribble which gives him more All-Star cred. It also might make him less effective and/or efficient considering much more of his offense will be from 2pt range and with higher usage comes more turnovers and possibly more stagnant ball-watching offense. If we're looking to recreate Mike Brown's Cavs though, Banchero as a poor man's Lebron is sortof interesting. I can squint and see it. I'm not sure I like it, but I can see it.
Jaden Ivey - He's the first player in this draft who I watched and immediately thought "this kid will succeed in the NBA". And that's before I knew he was a third generation pro athlete and grew up on a basketball court. There's just no chance a player with his level of off the dribble burst (unreal first step) and explosion (he almost teleports from the floor to the basket on some of these dunks) doesn't find a role in the current NBA. The shooting looks good enough -- it might take a couple years to develop though which puts us in a tough position unless Fox takes a huge leap with his shooting consistency next season. Even more worrying is that he replicates Fox's tendency to get lost on screens and if you haven't noticed, NBA offenses are using a LOT of screens these days. I'm at peace with the idea that he is probably the best player available (and maybe the best prospect in the draft) and I'll just have to hope that he's as coachable as the son of a championship winning player/coach should be.
Keegan Murray - If we were to write down everything we want/need in a prospect right now, Keegan comes the closest of anyone to checking all the boxes. He already approaches basketball like a professional -- making the right rotations on defense, getting to the line, sliding into open space on the perimeter where he can catch and shoot, then crashing the glass when a shot goes up. He's the living embodiment of the "late bloomer, great basketball player, fringe NBA athlete" archetype who gets under drafted every single year. Can we afford to pass up superstar potential in Ivey or Banchero in order to draft a player who will secretly be the best-player on a winning team for the next 10 years without ever getting the acclaim he deserves for it? Or for that matter, as the team who hasn't made the playoffs in 15 years can we afford not to draft him at 4? It is a conundrum. One thing I'm not worried about though -- if he's the pick, we will be a better team next season. Maybe even a lot better.
Bennedict Mathurin - For Kings fans who are worried that Murray isn't exciting enough to take at #4 and Ivey/Banchero are fun but perhaps too familiar in the way that they replicate all of the bad habits that have kept us outside the playoffs for forever (poor defensive focus, erratic shooting, too much hero ball), may I present the man in the middle. Mathurin showed in two years at Arizona that he can fit into a structured offense. Now the existential question -- Is it possible for a wing player to score all of their points off of assisted threes and backdoor cuts and find stardom in the NBA? If nothing else, picking Mathurin would be a vote of confidence in the Fox/Sabonis duo as he is fully equipped to take advantage of the open space that they carve out in defenses. I think the defensive tools are there and he played his best college ball at the end of the season in the conference and NCAA tournaments so the swagger is there too, he just needs someone to light a fire in him to give full effort every game. Maybe that somebody is Coach Pop as he seems destined to somehow wind up on the Spurs.
Shaedon Sharpe - Which matters more, process or results? If Sharpe is a star in the NBA whichever team drafts him will obviously be the biggest winner in this draft but from my perspective that will just end up being dumb luck. How is anyone supposed to fairly compare him to players who actually, you know, played last season? Not to mention, all we have is tape of him dunking on fools and blocking balls against the backboard in High School gymnasiums. Or dribbling around human cones in draft workouts. It may be better to be lucky than smart but we're the Kings so everyone already thinks we're the biggest idiots in the room -- let's try to be smart at least.
AJ Griffin - There's a possible world where AJ Griffin is the forgotten stud in this draft and we all look back 5 years from now and think "of course we should have taken the guy who shot 50% most of the year on high volume threes on the biggest stage in college basketball -- as a Freshman". This kid is the antithesis of Jabari Smith Jr. in many ways. His shooting is almost all one or two dribbles into a pull up. He effortlessly finds the holes in the defense and creates passing lanes off the ball. On defense, Jabari maxes out his limited lateral quickness with hyper-active effort and AJ occasionally looks like the athletic freak he was pre-injuries but more often looks like he's mentally processing the play 2 seconds later than everyone else. I think he's more boom or bust than even Chet Holmgren. His ceiling is a shooter who keeps you in every game (Buddy Hield on a good day) and his floor is washed out of the NBA because his one can't miss skill somehow never materialized and his post-injury athletic limitations didn't get better in time (say hello Jimmer Fredette and Nik Stauskas!) Of course the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
The only other prospects on my radar are trade-down candidates Tari Eason (swiss-army man on defense who has a knack for getting himself to the line), Jeremy Sochan (the rare and mythical wing who actually can defend all 5 positions? or is he the bad version of Boris Diaw?), and Mark Williams (huge, athletic, and smart big man who a half dozen teams will regret passing on even if his ceiling is capped as a defensive anchor in a perimeter scoring league).
So much for being brief!
Some brief thoughts on where I am with these prospects right now and then I'll probably tap out on this conversation for awhile.
Jabari Smith Jr. - There's no chance he falls to 4 so we'd have to trade up. I don't think he's a franchise player but he should be a solid starter for a long time in a 3 and D role. He may be closer to Otto Porter than Kevin Durant. My gut feeling is whoever ends up with him will be underwhelmed. So much of his value is tied to his 3pt shooting and other than once in a generation flukes like Steph Curry, shooting is just inherently volatile. Still... we do need shooting so you can't argue with the fit here.
Chet Holmgren - In a vacuum this is the perfect NBA prospect. He's huge, agile, and has fantastic instincts. His defensive impact is obvious both statistically and on tape. He can handle well enough in the open floor to help push the pace on fast breaks and he can stretch the floor. However, the relatively few impact big men left in the league right now are built like tanks (so you can't bully them physically) and tend to beat defenses with finesse rather than quickness or length. In other words, he will need to get stronger to achieve stardom. I get why everyone is hyped but he's an outlier in terms of what is working in the NBA right now so we'd be doubling down on either: (A) Winning in an unconventional way or (B) The league rules changing in the next 10 years so that perimeter-oriented scorers no longer enjoy every single advantage on both ends of the floor. He's perfect for OKC so I hope he's the pick at #2.
Paolo Banchero - He's never measured up to the hype on my viewings so maybe he's the one guy from this class that I'm totally wrong about. (Like previous genius takes of mine such as James "he looks like a slower Baron Davis" Harden and Jayson "all he does is shoot mid-range turnarounds" Tatum) Unlike Jabari, Paolo excels at creating shots off the dribble which gives him more All-Star cred. It also might make him less effective and/or efficient considering much more of his offense will be from 2pt range and with higher usage comes more turnovers and possibly more stagnant ball-watching offense. If we're looking to recreate Mike Brown's Cavs though, Banchero as a poor man's Lebron is sortof interesting. I can squint and see it. I'm not sure I like it, but I can see it.
Jaden Ivey - He's the first player in this draft who I watched and immediately thought "this kid will succeed in the NBA". And that's before I knew he was a third generation pro athlete and grew up on a basketball court. There's just no chance a player with his level of off the dribble burst (unreal first step) and explosion (he almost teleports from the floor to the basket on some of these dunks) doesn't find a role in the current NBA. The shooting looks good enough -- it might take a couple years to develop though which puts us in a tough position unless Fox takes a huge leap with his shooting consistency next season. Even more worrying is that he replicates Fox's tendency to get lost on screens and if you haven't noticed, NBA offenses are using a LOT of screens these days. I'm at peace with the idea that he is probably the best player available (and maybe the best prospect in the draft) and I'll just have to hope that he's as coachable as the son of a championship winning player/coach should be.
Keegan Murray - If we were to write down everything we want/need in a prospect right now, Keegan comes the closest of anyone to checking all the boxes. He already approaches basketball like a professional -- making the right rotations on defense, getting to the line, sliding into open space on the perimeter where he can catch and shoot, then crashing the glass when a shot goes up. He's the living embodiment of the "late bloomer, great basketball player, fringe NBA athlete" archetype who gets under drafted every single year. Can we afford to pass up superstar potential in Ivey or Banchero in order to draft a player who will secretly be the best-player on a winning team for the next 10 years without ever getting the acclaim he deserves for it? Or for that matter, as the team who hasn't made the playoffs in 15 years can we afford not to draft him at 4? It is a conundrum. One thing I'm not worried about though -- if he's the pick, we will be a better team next season. Maybe even a lot better.
Bennedict Mathurin - For Kings fans who are worried that Murray isn't exciting enough to take at #4 and Ivey/Banchero are fun but perhaps too familiar in the way that they replicate all of the bad habits that have kept us outside the playoffs for forever (poor defensive focus, erratic shooting, too much hero ball), may I present the man in the middle. Mathurin showed in two years at Arizona that he can fit into a structured offense. Now the existential question -- Is it possible for a wing player to score all of their points off of assisted threes and backdoor cuts and find stardom in the NBA? If nothing else, picking Mathurin would be a vote of confidence in the Fox/Sabonis duo as he is fully equipped to take advantage of the open space that they carve out in defenses. I think the defensive tools are there and he played his best college ball at the end of the season in the conference and NCAA tournaments so the swagger is there too, he just needs someone to light a fire in him to give full effort every game. Maybe that somebody is Coach Pop as he seems destined to somehow wind up on the Spurs.
Shaedon Sharpe - Which matters more, process or results? If Sharpe is a star in the NBA whichever team drafts him will obviously be the biggest winner in this draft but from my perspective that will just end up being dumb luck. How is anyone supposed to fairly compare him to players who actually, you know, played last season? Not to mention, all we have is tape of him dunking on fools and blocking balls against the backboard in High School gymnasiums. Or dribbling around human cones in draft workouts. It may be better to be lucky than smart but we're the Kings so everyone already thinks we're the biggest idiots in the room -- let's try to be smart at least.
AJ Griffin - There's a possible world where AJ Griffin is the forgotten stud in this draft and we all look back 5 years from now and think "of course we should have taken the guy who shot 50% most of the year on high volume threes on the biggest stage in college basketball -- as a Freshman". This kid is the antithesis of Jabari Smith Jr. in many ways. His shooting is almost all one or two dribbles into a pull up. He effortlessly finds the holes in the defense and creates passing lanes off the ball. On defense, Jabari maxes out his limited lateral quickness with hyper-active effort and AJ occasionally looks like the athletic freak he was pre-injuries but more often looks like he's mentally processing the play 2 seconds later than everyone else. I think he's more boom or bust than even Chet Holmgren. His ceiling is a shooter who keeps you in every game (Buddy Hield on a good day) and his floor is washed out of the NBA because his one can't miss skill somehow never materialized and his post-injury athletic limitations didn't get better in time (say hello Jimmer Fredette and Nik Stauskas!) Of course the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
The only other prospects on my radar are trade-down candidates Tari Eason (swiss-army man on defense who has a knack for getting himself to the line), Jeremy Sochan (the rare and mythical wing who actually can defend all 5 positions? or is he the bad version of Boris Diaw?), and Mark Williams (huge, athletic, and smart big man who a half dozen teams will regret passing on even if his ceiling is capped as a defensive anchor in a perimeter scoring league).
So much for being brief!
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We used to have a few big Kentucky fans here, if any still are can any of you explain to me how Sharpe didn't play for Kentucky if he is top 5 pick NBA ready? I heard that Cal didn't want to rock the boat but it seems the last great Kentucky squad was pre-pandemic and there is no way an NBA ready prospect would not be a solid add mid-season who could be a regular contributor by March.
Seems Sharpe has fallen but I still occasionally see his name.
Seems Sharpe has fallen but I still occasionally see his name.
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