[Game] Kings @ Pacers, 3/23/2022 4pm Pacific, 7pm Eastern

[pdxKingsFan]

The other real problem is Mitchell is showing value but you only realize the full value when Fox is out because Mitchell and Fox are not complementary players in the least. So you end up with a 2+2 = 3 kind of equation. Not paying attention to fit is one reason this team has gotten worse every year Monte has been GM.

Sure but you also have a potential asset of value to trade, rather than "fit" getting us Marvin Bagley.

We really needed a quality wing but missed out because those are currently the high value players in the league right now.

Monte could sell high on Mitchell if the right opportunity presented itself and I wouldn't be too upset. But let's not forget that despite Bibby and Doug holding it down for the Kings, Bobby Jackson really helped us be next level in the backcourt. I see Mitchell in that role.

 

[The_Jamal]

Where are you going to play him when Fox gets back? Is he a good player? Sure. Do we have the starter minutes at point he deserves? Nope.

Really it’s too bad Golden State didn’t draft him as he would be a perfect fit for them.

Depends on if Mitchell shooting can keep trending up, but why couldn't it work defensively? Davion can take the PoA, letting us hide Fox moreso on that end. And while the playmaking has looked fairly nice recently, I think Davion is likely better suited as secondary creator off a lead guard like a Fox, or playing off a Sabonis.

And the big difference is even when Mitchell's offensive game is bad (and there have been many of that this year), he almost always is giving you positive production on the defensive end or with his energy. You need that when your team is built around great offense/sketchy defensive stars

 

[The_Jamal]

Sure but you also have a potential asset of value to trade, rather than "fit" getting us Marvin Bagley.

We really needed a quality wing but missed out because those are currently the high value players in the league right now.

Monte could sell high on Mitchell if the right opportunity presented itself and I wouldn't be too upset. But let's not forget that despite Bibby and Doug holding it down for the Kings, Bobby Jackson really helped us be next level in the backcourt. I see Mitchell in that role.

Yeah, we have to remember you need more than one-ball handler/playmaker on the team. Fox/Hali/Mitchell was probably an embarrassment of riches at the position, but Monte played it exactly how you should; he took BPA and leveled up the asset to better balance the roster down the line. We can debate how smart the trade was, but what's not debatable is his use of the "BPA" strategy.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1506854947853254657

 

[hrdboild]

The other real problem is Mitchell is showing value but you only realize the full value when Fox is out because Mitchell and Fox are not complementary players in the least. So you end up with a 2+2 = 3 kind of equation. Not paying attention to fit is one reason this team has gotten worse every year Monte has been GM.

I feel like the memory of all the terrible backup PGs we've been forced to give significant (empty) minutes to over the years is sufficient argument for keeping both Fox and Mitchell together for awhile. At least we know we're going to be solid at that position and we have injury depth since Mitchell is clearly good enough to handle the starting role when Fox is out.

Also your claim that "this team has gotten worse every year Monte has been GM" seems a little premature considering we're currently wrapping up his second season.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Also your claim that "this team has gotten worse every year Monte has been GM" seems a little premature considering we're currently wrapping up his second season.

While I am extremely unhappy about many things this season, the main thing was keeping Luke around and I have my doubts that this decision was Monte's alone. The man hasn't gotten to choose his own coach yet. Next season when presumably this does happen will be when we truly know if he has just gotten lucky in the draft or if he has a real mind for the game.

 

[EIM86]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1506854947853254657

if this team ever becomes good we are gonna be losing our minds

 

[The_Jamal]

While I am extremely unhappy about many things this season, the main thing was keeping Luke around and I have my doubts that this decision was Monte's alone. The man hasn't gotten to choose his own coach yet. Next season when presumably this does happen will be when we truly know if he has just gotten lucky in the draft or if he has a real mind for the game.

There's 0 doubt in my mind that the directive from ownership was "We're going to keep Luke around, but we'll give you the go-ahead to fire him if we struggle." There's just no chance that a GM would fire a coach 17 games into the season if that's who he wanted to bet his chips on.

 

[Kingster]

The game by Buddy Hield is sooooo Buddy Hield. It was the epitome of Buddy Hield. Starts the game bouncing the ball of his foot. Ends the game with 14 seconds left bouncing the ball off his foot. Thank goodness we don't have that guy on the Kings. Every day is a good day for the Kings without Buddy Hield! And the look on his face after his end of game fiasco was priceless. I don't envy Carlisle or Pacer fans. It would be good for them to cut their losses on Hield asap.

Loved the game from Mitchell. I thought he outplayed Halliburton. Mitchell is a keeper. He's a good player and he's a culture changer.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

There's 0 doubt in my mind that the directive from ownership was "We're going to keep Luke around, but we'll give you the go-ahead to fire him if we struggle." There's just no chance that a GM would fire a coach 17 games into the season if that's who he wanted to bet his chips on.

I'm guessing he also saw it as an opportunity to get another year of rebuilding on when the org wouldn't tear down or tank. It took a season and a half with only one complete off-season, but he has completely churned the roster of all but the two best players from the previous regime and the all around upgrades (and targeted excisions) have been pretty sharp. Still need to get two more impactful players via draft and trade but I have a reasonable amount of faith he can do so compared to anything we've seen post-Adelman.

*edit - guess there are three players left, forgot about Holmes

 

[EIM86]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1506889218785611777

LOL man they all drinking haterade

 

[Kingster]

Depends on if Mitchell shooting can keep trending up, but why couldn't it work defensively? Davion can take the PoA, letting us hide Fox moreso on that end. And while the playmaking has looked fairly nice recently, I think Davion is likely better suited as secondary creator off a lead guard like a Fox, or playing off a Sabonis.

And the big difference is even when Mitchell's offensive game is bad (and there have been many of that this year), he almost always is giving you positive production on the defensive end or with his energy. You need that when your team is built around great offense/sketchy defensive stars

He looks to me like he'll be a very good backup to Fox as pg. If Fox goes down with injury for a month or so I think he could hold down the fort. At this point the Kings don't have a lot of players that can penetrate the ball, so with the current lineup it seems like you have to have Mitchell or Fox on the floor at all times, which means that you probably won't have them on the floor together very much. That dynamic could change somewhat if the new coach knows how to use Sabonis and his passing, in which case "cutters" lessen the need for "penetrators."

 

[Section 101]

Really wtf is Hali doing on the last play? He's in the paint and walking to the corner that's empty. Walks right by Jones instead of boxing out.

https://twitter.com/statuses/1506803117924368384

 

[TaxMan]

Really wtf is Hali doing on the last play? He's in the paint and walking to the corner that's empty. Walks right by Jones instead of boxing out.

https://twitter.com/statuses/1506803117924368384

Clearly you're mistaken.... The basketball analytics say Hali can do no wrong.

 

[TaxMan]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1506889218785611777

LOL man they all drinking haterade

Oh how I wished they had just asked Buddy to stand in the corner and shoot threes. May have actually worked.

 

[sactowndog]

Sure but you also have a potential asset of value to trade, rather than "fit" getting us Marvin Bagley.

We really needed a quality wing but missed out because those are currently the high value players in the league right now.

Monte could sell high on Mitchell if the right opportunity presented itself and I wouldn't be too upset. But let's not forget that despite Bibby and Doug holding it down for the Kings, Bobby Jackson really helped us be next level in the backcourt. I see Mitchell in that role.

sure but if you have an 8 pick the back-up point guard is not the position you should be using it to fill.

 

[EIM86]

 

[sactowndog]

I feel like the memory of all the terrible backup PGs we've been forced to give significant (empty) minutes to over the years is sufficient argument for keeping both Fox and Mitchell together for awhile. At least we know we're going to be solid at that position and we have injury depth since Mitchell is clearly good enough to handle the starting role when Fox is out.

Also your claim that "this team has gotten worse every year Monte has been GM" seems a little premature considering we're currently wrapping up his second season.

again not dissing Mitchell or the need for a good back-up point guard at all. Just a back up point guard is not the target with a top 10 pick.

and you are technically correct that we are stagnant at 12th in the west 31 wins. But as our core ages you could argue we have relatively gotten worse

 

[pdxKingsFan]

sure but if you have an 8 pick the back-up point guard is not the position you should be using it to fill.

He's more like 6th man than total backup. He also is a guy that likely will have more value if we decide we can't afford him in 2-3 seasons. There are plenty of players drafted in the 8-10 range that don't sign a second contract or become career journeymen so I am sure there will be some guy picked in the 20s that may jump ahead of him in a redraft 10 years from now but he could also wind up moving ahead of some picked ahead of him.

 

[The_Jamal]

again not dissing Mitchell or the need for a good back-up point guard at all. Just a back up point guard is not the target with a top 10 pick.

and you are technically correct that we are stagnant at 12th in the west 31 wins. But as our core ages you could argue we have relatively gotten worse

Why can't Fox and Mitchell play together again?

 

[Vinny Basketballerino]

View attachment 10999

Oh so we didn't let Buddy fumble the ball in the last seconds of a must-lose game to assure we lose... no, no we didn't, but we should have. Hats off to the Pacers on that. And congratulations to Buddy on his new role!!!

 

[ESP47]

Why can't Fox and Mitchell play together again?

I think it's something that Mitchell needs to answer. Way too many 2-10 shooting nights this year off the bench. He seems to be much better when starting in place of Fox but I don't blame the GM for that. Hopefully he gets to the point where he can continue this type of efficiency no matter what the scenario is.

 

[EIM86]

I think it's something that Mitchell needs to answer. Way too many 2-10 shooting nights this year off the bench. He seems to be much better when starting in place of Fox but I don't blame the GM for that. Hopefully he gets to the point where he can continue this type of efficiency no matter what the scenario is.

I expected inconsistency of play as a rookie. If he continues this next year then it’ll be a concern. He works too hard to be a bad player in the NBA he’ll be fine imo

 

[The_Jamal]

I think it's something that Mitchell needs to answer. Way too many 2-10 shooting nights this year off the bench. He seems to be much better when starting in place of Fox but I don't blame the GM for that. Hopefully he gets to the point where he can continue this type of efficiency no matter what the scenario is.

Yeah, it's too bad Gentry is a total donkey. Would have been nice to get a look at what Fox-Mitchell-Barnes-Sabonis in the starting 5 looked like this year.

And agreed on the offensive consistency. It's his downfall right now. He's had like 15-20 games where he looks like he can be a high-end starting offensive player. But he's also had 15-20 games where he flat out doesn't look like an NBA player at all on offense. He's got to raise the floor on what "bad" games look like. In other words; the highs have looked awesome, the lows have looked incredibly worrisome.

Defensively, he's been basically as expected. Impactful on most nights, team gets significantly better with him in on that end of the floor.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

again not dissing Mitchell or the need for a good back-up point guard at all. Just a back up point guard is not the target with a top 10 pick.

I think you might be overvaluing the expected production of a player picked in that range.

I looked over ten years' worth of drafts (2008-2017, so players have all had at least 5 years to play). I looked at picks 8, 9, and 10, so 30 players total.

Remarkably, there were only a handful of complete busts. Only 4 of the 30 players played in fewer than 50% of the games they could potentially have played in: Zach Collins (who is still only 5 years in, and has been hurt), Jordan Hill, Jimmer Fredette, and the biggest bust in that list, Joe Alexander (only 67 games total).

However, across the entire list of players, the average player only played in about 65% of games they were eligible for. And the average player only started 60% of the games that they played (which comes out to about 40% of all games).

Even so, this was skewed by several players who have been basically full-time starters. 6 players (20%) have started in 80%+ of the games they have played in. Another 9 players (30%) have started in 50%-80% of the games they've played in. And 15 - half of the sample - has not started 50% of the games they played in. Those 15 players only started in an average of 22% of the games they played in.

This means fully half of the players picked in that range should be expected to be bench players who occasionally start.

And, just to get out of the numbers game and into the names, here is the list of players, with breakdowns based on percentage of games started:

80%+ games started
C.J. McCollum
Andre Drummond
Kemba Walker
Paul George
DeMar DeRozan
Brook Lopez

50%-80% games started
Dennis Smith Jr
Marquese Chriss
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Brandon Knight
Al-Farouq Aminu
Gordon Hayward
Brandon Jennings

<50% games started
Frank Ntilikina
Zach Collins
Jakob Poeltl
Thon Maker
Stanley Johnson
Frank Kaminsky
Justise Winslow
Nik Stauskas
Trey Burke
Terence Ross
Austin Rivers
Jimmer Fredette
Jordan Hill
Joe Alexander
D.J. Augustin

I think it's fair to say that outside of Gordon Hayward, there's not really any player outside the top 6 that really moves the needle any more than we hope that Davion Mitchell will. The rest of the guys the the 50-80 class are kinda just "guys", and in some cases (Chriss, Vonleh) near-busts.

I know everybody wants to nail every pick, but this is kind of what's available at 8-10. Don't knock Davion if he spends the beginning of his career (if not his whole career) largely coming off the bench behind a top-5 pick. It's completely par for the course at #9.

 

[The_Jamal]

I think you might be overvaluing the expected production of a player picked in that range.

I looked over ten years' worth of drafts (2008-2017, so players have all had at least 5 years to play). I looked at picks 8, 9, and 10, so 30 players total.

Remarkably, there were only a handful of complete busts. Only 4 of the 30 players played in fewer than 50% of the games they could potentially have played in: Zach Collins (who is still only 5 years in, and has been hurt), Jordan Hill, Jimmer Fredette, and the biggest bust in that list, Joe Alexander (only 67 games total).

However, across the entire list of players, the average player only played in about 65% of games they were eligible for. And the average player only started 60% of the games that they played (which comes out to about 40% of all games).

Even so, this was skewed by several players who have been basically full-time starters. 6 players (20%) have started in 80%+ of the games they have played in. Another 9 players (30%) have started in 50%-80% of the games they've played in. And 15 - half of the sample - has not started 50% of the games they played in. Those 15 players only started in an average of 22% of the games they played in.

This means fully half of the players picked in that range should be expected to be bench players who occasionally start.

And, just to get out of the numbers game and into the names, here is the list of players, with breakdowns based on percentage of games started:

80%+ games started
C.J. McCollum
Andre Drummond
Kemba Walker
Paul George
DeMar DeRozan
Brook Lopez

50%-80% games started
Dennis Smith Jr
Marquese Chriss
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Brandon Knight
Al-Farouq Aminu
Gordon Hayward
Brandon Jennings

<50% games started
Frank Ntilikina
Zach Collins
Jakob Poeltl
Thon Maker
Stanley Johnson
Frank Kaminsky
Justise Winslow
Nik Stauskas
Trey Burke
Terence Ross
Austin Rivers
Jimmer Fredette
Jordan Hill
Joe Alexander
D.J. Augustin

I think it's fair to say that outside of Gordon Hayward, there's not really any player outside the top 6 that really moves the needle any more than we hope that Davion Mitchell will. The rest of the guys the the 50-80 class are kinda just "guys", and in some cases (Chriss, Vonleh) near-busts.

I know everybody wants to nail every pick, but this is kind of what's available at 8-10. Don't knock Davion if he spends the beginning of his career (if not his whole career) largely coming off the bench behind a top-5 pick. It's completely par for the course at #9.

Really good example of how hard drafting is. Outside that top 6 (and Hayward), I'd say only Poeltl, Ross and KCP are your only real quality rotation/starting caliber guys from that list. Virtually everyone else is an end of bencher/vastly underperformed what they were expected to be.

So basically, if Davion is just a good 28 MPG guy, whether starting or not, he'd be in the top 1/3rd of his draft bracket.

Also, really shows how important it is to get access to the elite prospects at the top of a draft. You can get a DDR/Paul George/CJ McCollum/Kemba, but those guys are on the lower end of the spectrum in terms of stars.

Meanwhile, the top 1-5 in those same years (08-17) have this player pool:

Blake Griffin
James Harden
Derrick Rose
Russell Westbrook
Kevin Love
John Wall
DeMarcus Cousins
Kyrie Irving
Anthony Davis
Brad Beal
Victor Oladipo (Maybe a stretch to include, but did have a few awesome years)
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon (Definite lower end of a top 5 pick, but don't think it's right to call him a bust)
KAT
Kristaps Porzingis
D'Angelo Russell
Ben Simmons
Brandon Ingram
Jaylen Brown
Lonzo Ball
Jayson Tatum
De'Aaron Fox

 

[Sluggah]

Can’t wait for the ‘dribble off your own foot’ addition to the skills challenge next year.

 

[hrdboild]

I also expect Mitchell's role to evolve over the remaining years of his rookie contract. His role may be 6th man and de-facto backup PG for now but that doesn't mean he's locked into that role for the rest of his career. We have Mitchell under team control for 3 more years and then he's a restricted free agent so we can decide to keep him as an eventual Fox replacement or trade him like Haliburton to balance the roster eventually. If we're going to be a playoff team in the next 3 years we'll need more than just 5 starting level players and Davion's defense means he'll remain valuable in a rotation even if he isn't dominating the ball.

 

[sactowndog]

I think you might be overvaluing the expected production of a player picked in that range.

I looked over ten years' worth of drafts (2008-2017, so players have all had at least 5 years to play). I looked at picks 8, 9, and 10, so 30 players total.

Remarkably, there were only a handful of complete busts. Only 4 of the 30 players played in fewer than 50% of the games they could potentially have played in: Zach Collins (who is still only 5 years in, and has been hurt), Jordan Hill, Jimmer Fredette, and the biggest bust in that list, Joe Alexander (only 67 games total).

However, across the entire list of players, the average player only played in about 65% of games they were eligible for. And the average player only started 60% of the games that they played (which comes out to about 40% of all games).

Even so, this was skewed by several players who have been basically full-time starters. 6 players (20%) have started in 80%+ of the games they have played in. Another 9 players (30%) have started in 50%-80% of the games they've played in. And 15 - half of the sample - has not started 50% of the games they played in. Those 15 players only started in an average of 22% of the games they played in.

This means fully half of the players picked in that range should be expected to be bench players who occasionally start.

And, just to get out of the numbers game and into the names, here is the list of players, with breakdowns based on percentage of games started:

80%+ games started
C.J. McCollum
Andre Drummond
Kemba Walker
Paul George
DeMar DeRozan
Brook Lopez

50%-80% games started
Dennis Smith Jr
Marquese Chriss
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Brandon Knight
Al-Farouq Aminu
Gordon Hayward
Brandon Jennings

<50% games started
Frank Ntilikina
Zach Collins
Jakob Poeltl
Thon Maker
Stanley Johnson
Frank Kaminsky
Justise Winslow
Nik Stauskas
Trey Burke
Terence Ross
Austin Rivers
Jimmer Fredette
Jordan Hill
Joe Alexander
D.J. Augustin

I think it's fair to say that outside of Gordon Hayward, there's not really any player outside the top 6 that really moves the needle any more than we hope that Davion Mitchell will. The rest of the guys the the 50-80 class are kinda just "guys", and in some cases (Chriss, Vonleh) near-busts.

I know everybody wants to nail every pick, but this is kind of what's available at 8-10. Don't knock Davion if he spends the beginning of his career (if not his whole career) largely coming off the bench behind a top-5 pick. It's completely par for the course at #9.

nice analysis though we should remove the Kings picks as they skew the data . And I’m not disagreeing with your odds as they form the basis why I believe getting a top 5 pick is so important. Also, I’m not questioning the value of Mitchell, just the value on the Kings who already have Fox.

that being said your analysis leaves out a key point (per an experienced NBA GM). Back-up players can be signed via free agency. (Remember we signed Bobby as a free agent). Any pick in the top 10 should be made with the intent of finding a high end starter. Wasting an 8 pick on a kid that will be your back-up point guard is just another example of being a bad GM.

 

[gunks]

View attachment 10999

Two goofs I couldn't be happier to see fail elsewhere.

Bags has been doo doo in Detroit, and of course we saw Buddy do Buddy things yesterday.