Knowing how schizophrenic this team is, we will beat the Grizzlies!
This has become a popular narrative but there is pattern more than randomness. The fortunes of the team correlate strongly to the efficiency of Boogie and
his historic usage rate.
When Boogie can abuse an undersized frontline like the Hornets without Jefferson (56 points) Pacers without Manhimi (48 points) or dance around lumbering bigs (Roy Hibbert), his usage is justified and team prospects are favorable.
When Boogie is hobbled and out of shape (most of December) and goes up against imposing front-lines with higher resistance (Portland with Plumleee and Leonard; Pelicans with Asik and Davis; Thunder with Ibaka and Adams), his extraordinary usage (TOs and FGAs) is detrimental and team prospects dim or sour.
There is nothing profound about your best player dictating prominent role in team success but you want to be able to win when your best player has an average or off night!
The Kings cannot readily absorb an average or off night because Boogie's usage is so high (blessing or curse depending on his play) and also because his quality of offense foreshadows quality of his defense.
Boogie tends to become more engaged defensively when his shot is falling. This is true for most players but especially a personality like Boogie who gets frustrated and discouraged and frankly will stop trying on defense when his shot is not falling.
When you have a player with a 30% to 40% usage rate on some games....whose effort defensively seems to be dictated by how well he performs offensively, you are too dependent on one person who cannot be depended on....not because of talent but because of decision-making and maturity.
When we beat Clippers it was significant Boogie took only 14 shots when Aldrich but the clamps on him. Boogie had 6-14 FGs (19/13/6) foul and turnover trouble but other players picked up slack. Boogie's usage rate in this game was about 20% to 25%. This type of game has been too infrequent because of the way our offense is designed and executed and scoring passivity and assertiveness of certain players (Rondo, Willie, Ben, Boogie).
We need more games like Clippers in which Boogie can stall out (which is going to happen based on attention he gets or lacking touch or bad calls or etcetera) without him dragging the whole team down!
To emphasize this point it should not require Boogie to be benched with foul trouble for Omri to have his career night in Golden State! Boogie should be willing to defer to the hot hand and play decoy without feeling constant burden to dominate offensively.
It should also not require half of a season for Ben to explode for 26 points! I am not blaming Boogie for Ben's struggles. I am saying that Ben would have more chances to shine if Boogie was not so ball dominant. (Ben has a 56% TS percentage vs Boogie's 54.2% TS which justifies a shift in FGAs which is 20.6 to 6.2, meaning Boogie shoots the ball almost 4 times for every one time Ben does.)
Moreover Boogie should be dishing to Willie at least 1-2 times per game or more for easy shovel pass or lob and throw down (54.2% TS vs 61% TS for Willie). The difference in attention Boogie receives versus Willie is profound and should be exploited for easy buckets and jams.
It does not escape my analysis that as a shot creator Boogie is going to likely have a lower efficiency rate relative to guys who cannot create their own shot (Willie, Ben). But the shot distribution is out of whack and it is the responsibility of all involved led by Boogie, Rondo, Karl to seek better equilibrium. Doing so will play prominent factor in playoff push.
(To his credit Karl has talked in post game interviews lately about shot distribution and shot quality and need to improve as team and Boogie specifically).
In summary disproportionate usage and over-reliance on an unreliable guy is one of primary reasons this team is 20-26 along with an inability to defend on perimeter and black hole production at SG. The erratic play from night to night is not as unpredictable as casual fans think. It is tied primarily to the aforementioned variables.