Keys to the Kings (Statistically)

[Bricklayer]

Of course with the subtitle: As I See Them

I apologize for the relative statistical density:

In any case a month ago I started a thread titled Defense? looking at where we were stats wise after the first 10 games of the season. I was intiially going to update that thread, and those numbers appear below. But I decided to take a look at offense too, and between the two, a couple of interesting things became evident. Basically, after you look at the stats below, by all rights we should be about a 6 win team right now. We can't shoot, we can't stop anybody from shooting. But we're better than that (alebit still not very good). So the questions became, how? Why?

First the defense:
DEFENSE
Opp PPG: 99.8 (21st in NBA) (after 10 games 96.37 (8th in NBA))
Opp FG%: .467 (24th in NBA) (after 10 games .468 (22nd in NBA))
Opp 3pt%: .372 (28th in NBA) (after 10 games .357 (16th in NBA))
Blocks/Gm: 3.2 (29th in NBA) (after 10 games 2.75 (29th in NBA))
Steals/Gm: 8.4 (3rd in NBA) (after 10 games 10.5 (2nd in NBA))
D-Rebounding%: .740 (12th in NBA) (after 10 games .762 (7th in NBA))

Now the offense:
OFFENSE
PPG: 99.4 (11th in NBA)
FG%: .438 (27th in NBA)
3pt%: .303 (28th in NBA)
Ast/Gm: 19.4 (21st in NBA)
TO/Gm: 15.1 (14th in NBA)
O-Rebounding%: .267 (17th in NBA)

And so what do we have? What are those keys to us even maintaining mediocrity? Well, we have backslid all the way to 20th in the NBA in rebounding% (.493 overall, -1.1 differential), so it looks like that is out, and what remains are: 1) opponent turnovers and 2) free throws.

Defensively, we are 24th in the league in Opp FG%, an even worse 28th in the league in Opp 3pt%, and yet slightly better in Opp PPG (21st). The rebounding no longer accounts for much of that as we've slumped off to a middling 12th in DefReb%. Pace could account for a bit of that, but our basic pace stats (FGA/OPP FGA) are in the 10th-15th range, not exceptional. So I think the key has to be what is hinted at by our lone strong suit -- the steals. We are still 3rd in the league in steals, and 4th in the league in Opponent Turnovers (17.0). Both of those stats have slipped a bit from the early season when we were 2nd in steals and 2nd in Opp TOs, but they remain literally the only strength on defense we have. And really the only thing that can explain us not being in the bottom 5 in points allowed. If our opponents get a chance to shoot the ball, its going in. So the entire key to us not being obliterated seems to be to just not let those opponents have as many shots as we do.

Offensively, we are a terrible shooting team, 27th in the NBA, and 28th from 3pt land. We have slightly improved our assists, but are still only 21st. We have considerably improved our TOs, but are a middling 14th. And our offensive rebounding has largely dissipated depsite all the bricks we throw up (below average 17th). So how the heck can we still be 11th in the league in scoring? Not great, but all the other numbers say we should be terrible. Well here is the key: free throws. Something I just got done mocking Muss for being so focused upon. But it is literally the ONLY thing we've got going for us on offense. We take the 4th most FTs in the NBA (29.5/gm), and have the 5th best FT% in the league (79.5), resulting in the Kings being #1 in the NBA in FTs made per game. That's right, #1. And so that's the key. Opponents only hit 18.8 of 24.8 FTs a game against us. We hit 23.5 of 29.5 on them. And those 4.7 extra points a game from the line is by FAR the best differential int he league. Nobody else is even close (Memphis is #2 at +3.5 a game, raising the question of whether this is an effective strategy). In any case, that is it in a nutshell. FTs. So I guess next time you are tempted to get on the refs about being unfair to us, don't. Because their whistles are basically all that's holding our offense out of the basement right now.

 

[kingsfan101]

FTs. So I guess next time you are tempted to get on the refs about being unfair to us, don't. Because their whistles are basically all that's holding our offense out of the basement right now.

Obviously it's a conspiracy by the league. They don't want us to suck too bad to keep us out of the Greg Oden sweepstakes

Thanks for the well researched data.

 

[MadMKEkf]

Nicely done!

Although this just makes me more concerned that Muss is the captain of a rudderless ship - when it is his job to install an effective rudder!

 

[nbrans]

Thanks for posting these stats. I feel like there's really only two stats you need to know about these Kings. Our leading shot-taker is shooting 36% and our second leading shot-taker is shooting 38%.

 

[Kingzrool]

I have been saying this about the free throw line from the first few games out. Kings are simply winning games there. And even in games they lose they get there more often than the opponent. At one point I looked back and only in two games had the opponant got to the line more than the Kings. Its not going to get us into the playoffs though, Muss needs to indentify who is the first second and third shooing options and run plays accordingly.

 

[CruzDude]

Lets look at shooting with 3-pts first. We have one excellent 3 shooter: Kevin. We have one good 3 shooter: Bibby. Then what? nada zip Brad? Sometimes but they don't have him out there.

Shooting inside the arc. Salmons and Ron Ron are ok, Bibby and Kevin again are the main stays, SAR is taking more jumpers and doing ok. But Cisco, Corliss, et al aren't very consistent. Both those last two are better near the basket. Price can be ok but doesn't get enough minutes to show what he can or cannot do shooting-scoring wise. He was the 2nd best scorer in the NCAA his Sr. year but in a small league.

We desparately need 1-2 more shooter-scorers. Maybe Douby is being groomed for that but I wouldn't know as he doesn't play.

Defense against the 3 seems obvious. The Kings don't go out and guard the known 3 shooters: Barbosa, Bell last night for example. Maybe they have fear they are not good perimeter defenders combined with no confidence of someone in the paint stopping a layup if they guard a 3 shooter too close. Their defensive rotations are not good.

Another example last night they never did go out and guard Thomas who made all his shots but one I think. The one bright spot last night was John Salmons who held Nash pretty much in check.

So agressive defense on the perimeter and defensive switching are the big keys I see. Those two things will breed more fast breaks as well.

As for shooting percentage, maybe they are trying too hard and are pushing it as they tend to play from behind so much (which might be solved by agressive perimeter defending). Patience is what they need and passing to team mates before jacking up a quickie.

Thats my 2¢ worth.

 

[HighFlyingMonkey]

Lets look at shooting with 3-pts first. We have one excellent 3 shooter: Kevin. We have one good 3 shooter: Bibby. Then what? nada zip Brad? Sometimes but they don't have him out there.

Shooting inside the arc. Salmons and Ron Ron are ok, Bibby and Kevin again are the main stays, SAR is taking more jumpers and doing ok. But Cisco, Corliss, et al aren't very consistent. Both those last two are better near the basket. Price can be ok but doesn't get enough minutes to show what he can or cannot do shooting-scoring wise. He was the 2nd best scorer in the NCAA his Sr. year but in a small league.

We desparately need 1-2 more shooter-scorers. Maybe Douby is being groomed for that but I wouldn't know as he doesn't play.

Defense against the 3 seems obvious. The Kings don't go out and guard the known 3 shooters: Barbosa, Bell last night for example. Maybe they have fear they are not good perimeter defenders combined with no confidence of someone in the paint stopping a layup if they guard a 3 shooter too close. Their defensive rotations are not good.

Another example last night they never did go out and guard Thomas who made all his shots but one I think. The one bright spot last night was John Salmons who held Nash pretty much in check.

So agressive defense on the perimeter and defensive switching are the big keys I see. Those two things will breed more fast breaks as well.

As for shooting percentage, maybe they are trying too hard and are pushing it as they tend to play from behind so much (which might be solved by agressive perimeter defending). Patience is what they need and passing to team mates before jacking up a quickie.

Thats my 2¢ worth.

And that is the truth of the Kings' defense.

 

[Arkitect]

From watching the games, I had a suspicion that our opponent 3pt % was going to be horrible. It looks like my hunch comes out in the numbers. We just get obliterated from the 3pt line. The only bright spot is that three of our main offensive weapons( Bibby, Artest, Miller ) are playing below their abilities. Our offense should improve as the season goes on (assuming its a slump, not a problem with our system). I think we will end up just good enough to grab that 8th spot and get bounced in 4. Go Kings .

 

[SacTownKid]

DEFENSE
1.Opp FG%: .467 (24th in NBA) (after 10 games .468 (22nd in NBA))

2.Opp 3pt%: .372 (28th in NBA) (after 10 games .357 (16th in NBA))

3.Blocks/Gm: 3.2 (29th in NBA) (after 10 games 2.75 (29th in NBA))

These are the stats that worry me the most. The offense will eventually come around but these stats are largely the way they are because of the 3rd in this list. We have NO PROTECTION AT THE RIM!!!! The actual block numbers aren't the real issue but with blocks at the rim comes altered shots as well. That's the biggy. The 10 altered shots that come with the blocks.

I am still very curious how much the easy layups we give up account for how high our Opp FG% is. And how much penetration aids in our opponents stellar 3pt %. Does anyone know or can take the time to do add it up?

I'd try but I am horrible with stats and math. Well, that and I'm lazy.

 

[gunks]

These are the stats that worry me the most. The offense will eventually come around but these stats are largely the way they are because of the 3rd in this list. We have NO PROTECTION AT THE RIM!!!! The actual block numbers aren't the real issue but with blocks at the rim comes altered shots as well. That's the biggy. The 10 altered shots that come with the blocks.

I am still very curious how much the easy layups we give up account for how high our Opp FG% is. And how much penetration aids in our opponents stellar 3pt %. Does anyone know or can take the time to do add it up?

I'd try but I am horrible with stats and math. Well, that and I'm lazy.

Idle musing....I wonder what our record would be if we had a good interior defender and if Bibby and Artest were shooting respectable percentages.

As bad as we've been playing lately I still think this team could be pretty dangerous with just a few roster tweaks. (That and Bibby playing like he did in preseason).

 

[VF21]

Idle musing....I wonder what our record would be if we had a good interior defender and if Bibby and Artest were shooting respectable percentages.

If wishes were horses...

 

[gunks]

Nah....Like I said, that was just an idle musing.

If it was a wish I'd probably through in something about Petrie pulling off a KT for Okafor trade or something

 

[VF21]

If it was a wish I'd probably through in something about Petrie pulling off a KT for Okafor trade or something

Ah, then in that case:

If you're going to dream, it doesn't cost any more to dream in Technicolor.