If you were in charge, what would the 2016-2017 Kings look like?

[Amit149]

Let me put it this way, would you be happy if we paid Al Horford $27 million a year to be our best player? We've already got fans unhappy with DeMarcus because we're not winning enough. Horford may be the best all-around player on a team that won 60 games once but usually they're first round playoff fodder (which is why they're considering letting Horford go) and they've always been more of an ensemble operation than a star lead one. Case in point: Millsap has been their leading scorer the past 3 years. Before that it was Josh Smith and Joe Johnson. Actually, in 9 seasons with Atlanta Al Horford has never been the leading scorer unless you count 2 years ago when he edged out Millsap by 0.7 pts per game in 2014 but only played in 29 games because of injury. I don't doubt that some team will talk themselves into maxing him out just like Atlanta talked themselves into paying Joe Johnson more money than Lebron James. I stand by my assertion that it would be a stupid move, even with the salary cap going up. Even $20 million a year is already an overpay but probably worth it in our situation.

27 million is 30 % of the cap, the question is do you think that a team without a star/in need of a 2nd star should max Horford, for me the answer is a clear yes, the other thing is that even by your scenario we would have about 20 million to offer him, that's a lot less than the max.
I fail to see the connection about some fans being unhappy with DMC not leading us past 30 wins (just to be clear, I don't think it's his fault) and being unhappy with a guy who won 60 just because he was on a "playoff fodder" team that reached the conference finals last year...
But I guess I see where you are coming from in that sense, but he is still a very good player and the second best player in a FA class where every team is going to have money to offer.
Last thing is about Atlanta "considering letting Horford go"- can you point me to where you got that from? they didn't trade him at the trade deadline so I'm pretty sure they intend to keep him if they can.

There's a difference between saying "player X is a below-average defender" and saying "this team will be awful defensively with player X on it" I think you can build an average defense around Rondo, Ben, and Gay provided you're not also doing stupid things like playing 3 PGs at once, playing your SF at PF, switching on every screen, and refusing to guard shooters man-to-man. I think you also have to be realistic about who you have and how they compare to their peers. There aren't a lot of standout defenders at the PG position -- it's primarily a scoring position right now. There also aren't a lot of standout defenders who can start at SF and the few that exist are locked into their existing teams. You want to upgrade Rudy and Rajon defensively? Okay. But be aware that you're giving up a lot in other areas to make that happen and as you try to improve your overall talent level by subtracting in one area and adding somewhere else your level of difficulty goes up astronomically.

You are right, but when player X is a bad defender, Player Y is a below average defender and player Z is an average defender at best... and those players are either not very good on reading the game in the case of some and taking plays off/gambling way-too-much in the case of others- the defense made by X, Y and Z wouldn't be that good.
Could it be better? sure.
Are we doing stupid stuff that hurts us right now? hell yes.
But in my opinion the ceiling of this team defensively is lower than a lot of people think it is.

Now most successful teams have atleast one perimeter guy who's a very good defender and can paly well enough to get minutes, we don't have that, and so it's either about finding that "perfect SG" we both agree won't happen or trying to make it work in the other positions.
Now a quick note about "talent"- if we go by your definition of talent how many teams with a better record than we do would you say have less "talent" than we do?
If by your estimation Rudy and Rondo are more talented than anybody on the Celtics roster or the Portland roster outside Lilard, What good is that talent than?
Give me a team of role players that do their jobs around Cousins over the "talent" of Rudy and Rondo that gets you nowhere, I'll take that in a heartbeat.

Are we a desirable free agent destination? Obviously not. But that's not what this topic is about is it? You want me to wallow in self-pity and offer Ryan Anderson $20 million instead because he's the only guy who might want to come here? If that's the direction you want to go in, why bother with this topic at all?

You posted a plan, I reacted to it, that's how this things work.

I never said anything close to what you said about Ryan Anderson, in my opinion the direction we are going on is no big trades, re-signing Rondo and signing someone like Courtney Lee or Allen Crabbe- if it was up to me though I would probably blow the team up and try to rebuild.

 

[KingMilz]

The first thing I would do is try sign or trade for a above average PG unless we have a draft pick and land on a potential stud that might be a beast 2 or 3 years from draft day. Jeff Teague is the obvious one atm and I would offer the Hawks Gay for him.

Rono (no d), is not the short term/medium or long term answer we need a above average PG to compete in the NBA nearly every team without one like us is not in the playoff hunt or even a 500. team

 

[hrdboild]

This was stated before his dibacle in the 1st round vs Houston. Nobody would touch him in FA after that

Wrong again. Rondo-gate happened on April 22nd of last year, your comment was made on April 28th at the height of anti-Rondo hysteria. I was foolish enough to try and start a rational discussion about the pros and cons of signing him at that time, but I was fed up with the media hyperbole and wanted to discuss his merits as a player not an accused quitter and/or destroyer of locker rooms.

 

[hrdboild]

27 million is 30 % of the cap, the question is do you think that a team without a star/in need of a 2nd star should max Horford, for me the answer is a clear yes, the other thing is that even by your scenario we would have about 20 million to offer him, that's a lot less than the max.
I fail to see the connection about some fans being unhappy with DMC not leading us past 30 wins (just to be clear, I don't think it's his fault) and being unhappy with a guy who won 60 just because he was on a "playoff fodder" team that reached the conference finals last year...
But I guess I see where you are coming from in that sense, but he is still a very good player and the second best player in a FA class where every team is going to have money to offer.

Then you're either naive or playing at it. How did the perception of Joe Johnson around the league change after he signed a 123 million dollar deal? Kobe Bryant went from walking on water to the anchor around the franchise among Lakers fans once he signed his 3 year 85 million dollar deal and then got injured and didn't play. Trust me on this, I work around Laker fans every day. They all resented him and have been counting the days till he's gone. If you get paid like a franchise player but aren't getting results like one you become the scapegoat for everything that's wrong with your team. Your own fans turn against you as your contract is supposedly preventing the team from getting better. Some comedian at ESPN is going to call you out every year for being overpaid and unreliable. It gets ugly. Remember how Webber was treated at the end of his tenure here? You think the DeMarcus backlash in Sacramento is bad now? Imagine how much worse it will be once he signs a max deal under the new salary cap.

And Al Horford didn't "lead" a team to 60 wins any more than DeMarcus is responsible for our inability to win 30. That's sportswriter pap not reality. He was part of a winning team. A team that had 4 All-Stars and the coach of the year. Kyle Korver shot 50% from three. Paul Millsap led the team in scoring, rebounding, and defense rating. Horford was an important piece but you can't hang 60 wins around his neck and say he's a #1 option. That same team this year is hovering just over .500.

Last thing is about Atlanta "considering letting Horford go"- can you point me to where you got that from? they didn't trade him at the trade deadline so I'm pretty sure they intend to keep him if they can.

They didn't trade him but they sure did shop him around so they're considering the possibility that he won't be there next season. It's kindof hard to pull the trigger on a deal which blows up your team mid-season when you're sitting in a playoff spot. Nobody wants that. But consider this -- both Atlanta as an organization and Al Horford individually are looking back at 9 years of playoff futility. Even as the #1 seed last year they got swept by Cleveland in the Conference Finals. They didn't get better this year, they got worse. It's quite likely Horford opts for familiarity and returns to Atlanta but both sides have a reason to consider alternatives. Atlanta may not want to commit max money to Horford after seeing how re-signing Joe Johnson crippled them for years. Horford may not want to lock up what's left of his prime struggling to make it out of the first round every year when there are 29 other opportunities out there to explore. Well, more like 15-20 possibilities at his price point.

I'm skipping the bits about defense because it's mostly subjective. The few stats out there which measure it do more harm than good because nobody even agrees on the best way to use them. We've discussed this enough already to know that we're not going to find common ground there.

Now a quick note about "talent"- if we go by your definition of talent how many teams with a better record than we do would you say have less "talent" than we do?
If by your estimation Rudy and Rondo are more talented than anybody on the Celtics roster or the Portland roster outside Lilard, What good is that talent than?
Give me a team of role players that do their jobs around Cousins over the "talent" of Rudy and Rondo that gets you nowhere, I'll take that in a heartbeat.

What good is that talent? You tell me. Let's trade DeMarcus Cousins for Damian Lillard. He's leading a team of unheralded young players and journeymen into the playoffs while 2x All Star DeMarcus can't lead his star teammates to a .500 record. If talent doesn't matter and winning does that's a good trade for us right?

You posted a plan, I reacted to it, that's how this things work.

I never said anything close to what you said about Ryan Anderson, in my opinion the direction we are going on is no big trades, re-signing Rondo and signing someone like Courtney Lee or Allen Crabbe- if it was up to me though I would probably blow the team up and try to rebuild.

What you said was we're a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 10 years and hasn't even cracked 30 wins in 8 years -- both true. Why would anyone come here thinking they can compete for something? That's what people said last year about Rondo but he came didn't he? Oh that's right -- nobody wanted him, he needed a one year deal to recover value, blah, blah , blah. BS. He came for DeMarcus and Rudy. Because as long as we have those two we're a couple pieces away. Koufos and Belinelli haven't been the right pieces this year. It's obvious to me that we're never going anywhere with George Karl regardless. You can act like record is the only thing that matters if you want to. But players know and respect talent. Al Horford was in the same high school recruiting class as Rondo and Gay so they've probably known each other since they were 14. Lebron didn't leave a 61 win team in 2010 to go to a 47 win team coming off two straight first round playoff losses, he left to play with Wade and Bosh.

I don't know that anyone respected Pete enough to return his phone calls, but people respect Vlade whatever else may be going on with the team. Everybody (except disgruntled Kings fans apparently) knows that DeMarcus is one of the elite players in the league. Blowing it all up puts us back at nobody status -- a joke of a team in a small market that gets very little national media coverage. I'm tired of betting on ping pong balls. We have a seat at the table right now -- I wouldn't give that up until I absolutely had no other choice.

 

[Amit149]

Then you're either naive or playing at it. How did the perception of Joe Johnson around the league change after he signed a 123 million dollar deal? Kobe Bryant went from walking on water to the anchor around the franchise among Lakers fans once he signed his 3 year 85 million dollar deal and then got injured and didn't play. Trust me on this, I work around Laker fans every day. They all resented him and have been counting the days till he's gone. If you get paid like a franchise player but aren't getting results like one you become the scapegoat for everything that's wrong with your team. Your own fans turn against you as your contract is supposedly preventing the team from getting better. Some comedian at ESPN is going to call you out every year for being overpaid and unreliable. It gets ugly. Remember how Webber was treated at the end of his tenure here? You think the DeMarcus backlash in Sacramento is bad now? Imagine how much worse it will be once he signs a max deal under the new salary cap.

And Al Horford didn't "lead" a team to 60 wins any more than DeMarcus is responsible for our inability to win 30. That's sportswriter pap not reality. He was part of a winning team. A team that had 4 All-Stars and the coach of the year. Kyle Korver shot 50% from three. Paul Millsap lead the team in scoring, rebounding, and defense rating. Horford was an important piece but you can't hang 60 wins around his neck and say he's a #1 option. That same team this year is hovering just over .500.

But it's not a Joe Johnson or Kobe Bryant size deal in todays market, that's the whole point, it's a regular max contract it's just everyone's salary is bigger now- can you imagine the reaction if some of the deals signed this summer was signed in the past?
It's 30% of the cap, do you think that's crazy for Al Horford? I disagree with that, it's not ideal but also not crazy.
The argument about his part in last year's team is kind of pointless, I think he is the most valuable player on that team, and you may disagree, but I think what we can both agree on is that he is a 2 way player that can play PF and Center effectively and stretch the floor while still having a post game and being a good passer- and that's extremely valuable and rare in todays game.

They didn't trade him but they sure did shop him around so they're considering the possibility that he won't be there next season. It's kindof hard to pull the trigger on a deal which blows up your team mid-season when you're sitting in a playoff spot. Nobody wants that. But consider this -- both Atlanta as an organization and Al Horford individually are looking back at 9 years of playoff futility. Even as the #1 seed last year they got swept by Cleveland in the Conference Finals. They didn't get better this year, they got worse. It's quite likely Horford opts for familiarity and returns to Atlanta but both sides have a reason to consider alternatives. Atlanta may not want to commit max money to Horford after seeing how re-signing Joe Johnson crippled them for years. Horford may not want to lock up what's left of his prime struggling to make it out of the first round every year when there are 29 other opportunities out there to explore. Well, more like 15-20 possibilities at his price point.

I'm skipping the bits about defense because it's mostly subjective. The few stats out there which measure it do more harm than good because nobody even agrees on the best way to use them. We've discussed this enough already to know that we're not going to find common ground there.

He is on an ending contract and I guess that the major reason they considered it, but according to all reports after the deadline they asked a really high price for him and wouldn't settle- that's very far from "letting him go".
I agree that Atlanta is far from having a title shot, but I just don't get how you can look down on that from where we're standing.

What good is that talent? You tell me. Let's trade DeMarcus Cousins for Damian Lillard. He's leading a team of unheralded young players and journeymen into the playoffs while 2x All Star DeMarcus can't lead his star teammates to a .500 record. If talent doesn't matter and winning does that's a good trade for us right?

It's funny how you presented it, because Damian Lillard is also a 2x All Star.
And considering that Damian is locked up for far longer I actually think it is a pretty decent trade for us...

Thing is, to go back to the original point it's about how you determine talent, talent does matter, but "talented" guys that are odd pieces you can't put together are usually the most overrated players out there.
And that's where DMC differs from Rudy and Rondo, because for all his faults, he is still effective on both ends of the floor and has no glaring flaws in his game.

What you said was we're a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 10 years and hasn't even cracked 30 wins in 8 years -- both true. Why would anyone come here thinking they can compete for something? That's what people said last year about Rondo but he came didn't he? Oh that's right -- nobody wanted him, he needed a one year deal to recover value, blah, blah , blah. BS.

Only that's it's not BS, do you really think Rondo got a ton of FA interest? cause there is zero evidence of that, of course you can right off facts as BS if it suits you, but frankly- I read a lot of your posts and I think you are smarter than that.

You can act like record is the only thing that matters if you want to. But players know and respect talent. Al Horford was in the same high school recruiting class as Rondo and Gay so they've probably known each other since they were 14. Lebron didn't leave a 61 win team in 2010 to go to a 47 win team coming off two straight first round playoff losses, he left to play with Wade and Bosh.

Again record isn't everything but there is a huge difference between an ok playoff team and a team not cracking 30 wins... you can blame whoever you want but that's the truth.
LeBron went to a 47 win team that already had Wade (the main guy in a championship team) and Pat freaking Riley in the FO, and didn't have Bosh yet (so that's not even a remotely similar situation), if you are really comparing that with what we have with DMC and Rudy now it's just beyond ridiculous.

Everybody (except disgruntled Kings fans apparently) knows that DeMarcus is one of the elite players in the league.

When did I say he wasn't one? I just think that saying that he is recognized around the league as a top 5 player is a stretch...

Blowing it all up puts us back at nobody status -- a joke of a team in a small market that gets very little national media coverage.

Like now our media coverage is so great, we get a ton of media coverage- as a joke franchise.

We have a seat at the table right now -- I wouldn't give that up until I absolutely had no other choice.

And which table is that exactly?

You are talking about it like we are let's say... Atlanta, and I just said we should break up a playoff team becuase we are not contending (although for some reason you get that logic when it comes to Atlanta), this team as accomplished NOTHING.

And the window to do something is closing since the guy who's the promise behind all of this is one year away from becoming an expiring contract, so unless you think that you are going to become an overnight contender you should atleast consider blowing it up on your terms and get tools to rebuild before you end up losing him for nothing and hurting your future even more.

 

[hrdboild]

I think we've both said enough about this to understand each other, it's mostly just semantics at this point. I see your points and agree with some but not all of them. Which is okay.

Some brief comments though. I wouldn't take a Cousins for Lillard trade in a million years, but that's just me. I've already admitted my bias against scoring PGs so take this for what it's worth, but I don't think Lillard is a franchise player. Rudy Gay was equally deserving of an All-Star nod last year but we were too crapty to get two All-Stars. I don't think Rondo would have picked Sacramento regardless of his circumstances without DeMarcus and Rudy here. There are 29 other teams he could have attempted to rebuild his value on. If it had to be a starting spot, maybe 6 or 7. And the "table" I'm referring to is the one where free agents come to negotiate. Sacramento without a franchise player gets zero interest from top free agents. None. Sacramento with a franchise player in place at least gets a look. If we give that tiny bit of credibility up now it could be another decade before we get it back. That to me is a bigger issue than our closing window to keep Cousins -- who has given no indication yet that he's even thinking about wanting out.

 

[Amit149]

I think we've both said enough about this to understand each other, it's mostly just semantics at this point. I see your points and agree with some but not all of them. Which is okay.

Some brief comments though. I wouldn't take a Cousins for Lillard trade in a million years, but that's just me. I've already admitted my bias against scoring PGs so take this for what it's worth, but I don't think Lillard is a franchise player. Rudy Gay was equally deserving of an All-Star nod last year but we were too poopooty to get two All-Stars. I don't think Rondo would have picked Sacramento regardless of his circumstances without DeMarcus and Rudy here. There are 29 other teams he could have attempted to rebuild his value on. If it had to be a starting spot, maybe 6 or 7. And the "table" I'm referring to is the one where free agents come to negotiate. Sacramento without a franchise player gets zero interest from top free agents. None. Sacramento with a franchise player in place at least gets a look. If we give that tiny bit of credibility up now it could be another decade before we get it back. That to me is a bigger issue than our closing window to keep Cousins -- who has given no indication yet that he's even thinking about wanting out.

I feel the same, and despite our disagreement on some issues (and maybe because of it) I think it helped me clear my thoughts on some subjects.

Some brief comments about your brief comments

I wouldn't trade Cousins for Lillard in a vacuum either, since Cousins is a better player- but considering Lillard has 5 years after this one and he is a young star I think I would have done it unless I'm 100% certain I can re-sign DMC.
I guess your bar for out a franchise player is much higher than mine, but if Horford's role for the Hawks is debatable I don't think there are any doubts about Lillard role as the clear #1 guy in a playoff team- in my book that makes him a franchise player, but again the definition of a franchise player could be considered, as you pointed out as semantics (the claim that Rudy was equally deserving of an All-star spot though is crazy to me).

I think you massively overrate Rondo's options last summer, I don't think there was 1 other NBA franchise that would have offered him a starting role (with maybe the exception of the Nets that weren't able to offer him a solid salary), and I think the majority of teams wouldn't have touched him as a bench guy- after what happened in Dallas I doubt most teams would want an unhappy Rondo on their squad.
We also offered him a lot of money and a 1 year bounce back contract- I think all other things were far less critical than that.

About the FA table, we lost Wes Matthews despite offering him more money and Monta Ellis didn't really bothered to come here- this are the only somewhat big FA we aimed for, and we failed.
I don't think that you can say we are anything close to a desired destination and with every year Cousins contract is getting shorter and we are not making the playoffs we become less and less appealing- but maybe I'm wrong on that (I hope I am), in any case, I don't think we are signing any stars any time soon and role players (or atleast yound role players before their big payday) care mostly about how much money you offer.

 

[hrdboild]

(the claim that Rudy was equally deserving of an All-star spot though is crazy to me)

Lillard in 2014/2015(per36).....21.2pts....4.7rbs.....6.2asts....1.2stls...0.3blks....2.7 TOs.... (.434/.343/.864)
Gay in 2014/2015(per36)...........21.4pts....6.0rbs....3.7asts....1.1stls...0.6blks....2.7 TOs....(.455/.359/.858)

 

[KingMilz]

Lillard in 2014/2015(per36).....21.2pts....4.7rbs.....6.2asts....1.2stls...0.3blks....2.7 TOs.... (.434/.343/.864)
Gay in 2014/2015(per36)...........21.4pts....6.0rbs....3.7asts....1.1stls...0.6blks....2.7 TOs....(.455/.359/.858)

50 win team vs 20 something win team

 

[biltalent]

@Amit149 @hrdboild thanks for your discussion, it was very interesting to follow and nice to see you not fighting even if you didn't agree with each other!

 

[Amit149]

Lillard in 2014/2015(per36).....21.2pts....4.7rbs.....6.2asts....1.2stls...0.3blks....2.7 TOs.... (.434/.343/.864)
Gay in 2014/2015(per36)...........21.4pts....6.0rbs....3.7asts....1.1stls...0.6blks....2.7 TOs....(.455/.359/.858)

Outside doing it on a winning team which KingMilz already pointed out, it's worth noting that Lillard also had a higher TS%, PER and RPM (by a huge margin, Lillard was 28th in the league with 3.77 and Rudy was 133th in the league with 0.41).

Another point is that the only stats relevant for the All-star are those that happened before the All-star break, and the split loks a little different when you look at this stats:

Lillard.....21.5pts.....4.6reb.....6.3ast.....1.5stl.....0.3blk.....2.6TOs.....+5.9(+/-).....56.4TS%.....53 games played
Gay.........19.9pts.....5.9reb.....3.9ast.....1.1stl......0.5blk.....2.6TOs.....-0.7(+/-)......54.4TS%.....48 games played

So Lillard played 5 more games,
Scored 1.6 more points per game with higher shooting efficiency,
His 2.4 assists advantage outweighs Rudy's 1.3 rebound advantage,
And both turned the ball over the same amount of times.
Lillard's +/- is extremely better than Rudy's, and on top of all that Lillard also made this stats for a winning team- it was a no-brainer choice.

 

[ninjabiscuit]

Imagine you were in Vlade's shoes and you would have to decide how the Kings are going into the new arena.
What would you do for the remainder of the season and in the offseason? Keep in mind that you have an owner and a fanbase that are starving to bring immediate success to Sacramento so a total rebuild seems to be unrealistic.

Would you encourage the team to try to reach the playoffs or tank for a draft pick the rest of the season?
Would you hire a gm to help? Who would you interview?
Would you bring in a new coach and coaching stuff? If yes, who would you hire?
What would you do on draft day and in free agency?
What trades would you do? Minor trades or a shake up?

As a help, here is the roster and their contracts going into the new season:
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/sacramento-kings-team-salary/
leaving free agents: Rajon Rondo

So if you do not make a trade and we will not get a draft pick, the total salary is about 68 mil. With the cap projected to be 92 mil. this equals to 24 mil. in cap space. If all players with player options opt out and you waive those non-guaranteed contracts you could be looking at 31 mil. in cap space. Of course you could also trade certain players to get even more cap space.

Link to a list of free agents by basketballinsiders:
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-salaries/nba-free-agents-2016-2017/

List to Draftexpress latest Mock draft:
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016/

Keep playing hard. I'm old-fashioned, and I HATE the idea of intentionally tanking for draft picks. Fosters a loser mentality in your players and sends the horrible message that sometimes, you don't want to win.

Keep Rondo if possible. He plays hard, he's smart as hell, he's the best passer we've had in a while, and he's good for Cousins. Plus the fans love watching him. I know the last bit isn't a "basketball reason," but I would imagine one of Vivek's priorities is putting butts in seats.

Bring in a solid, knowledgeable GM, and work with that person to select the best head coach for the team. If I'm Vlade, Karl is out. It's just not working out. There are several good names out there.

 

[KingsFanGER]

Keep playing hard. I'm old-fashioned, and I HATE the idea of intentionally tanking for draft picks. Fosters a loser mentality in your players and sends the horrible message that sometimes, you don't want to win.

Keep Rondo if possible. He plays hard, he's smart as hell, he's the best passer we've had in a while, and he's good for Cousins. Plus the fans love watching him. I know the last bit isn't a "basketball reason," but I would imagine one of Vivek's priorities is putting butts in seats.

Bring in a solid, knowledgeable GM, and work with that person to select the best head coach for the team. If I'm Vlade, Karl is out. It's just not working out. There are several good names out there.

I like your mentality. But how in the world do you come away from watching Kings games and think Rondo plays hard?

 

[One and Done]

If I were miraculously put in charge to run the Kings, the first thing I'd perform is internal discovery, specifically clarifying: what have we been trying to build (aka clarify philosophy), what have been our barriers from reaching our goals, what our decision making process has been and finally what staff/leadership believe will make us better. We see the product on the floor, we read the headlines, but I'm sure there's more to know (and my hypothesis is that it's not good).

Without knowing these unknowns, I'd approach the offseason in two ways - assuming we don't make the playoffs:

1.) first, can we build a team around Cousins in one summer? Cousins is near his peak, and our window of opportunity to build around him is about to start becoming more narrow. Building a team around Cousins is dependent on making several trades and acquisitions, getting the right offensive/defensive schemes around him, and the big man himself committing to getting in the best shape of his career. All in one offseason. That's tough, but not impossible.

2.) if we can't achieve objective #1, let's cash out on our assets at their peak and get as much as we can in return. Again, Cousins is near peak. If we can't make a playoff run next season, and become a contender the season thereafter, we're letting our top asset decline in value. It's like having a 911 Turbo confined within a 25-mph speed enforced neighborhood with speed bumps: what's the point? We'll get much more for Cousins now than near the end of his contract, and you could not blame him going elsewhere if this continues, the basketball gods demand Cousins sees playoff time.

Given scenario 1, the easy answer is getting multiple 3-and-D floor spacers around Cousins and keeping a strong pass-first guard at the helm. The tough answer is what we could get - Rudy, Ben, Marco, Kosta, Collison are all tradeable - but what will that yield us? I've played multiple scenarios on the Trade Machine, but little realistic results in return barring multiple instances of highway robbery. I'd also look to make a much-needed coaching change (Thibs is tops on my list), but I question if we'll be able to get the talent we need given Vivek's reputation.

As much as I want this team to make the playoffs, my gut says #2 is the way to go. I really don't think they'll be able to build a team with such a limited set of assets...and now they need to get what they gave up, back, in order to rebuild. Trade Cousins for two top-5 picks and filler, nothing less. Give away Gay for roleplayers and mid-to-late first rounders. Give away Ben McLemore for filler, late 1st or seconds. Basically, get as many draft picks and smart (cheap) roleplayer talent as you can and hope you get lucky ala OKC in picking the right players for your core (aka not Philly's lotto luck).

In my mind, if management/ownership stays on this haphazard path #1 every season, we won't make the playoffs until the next decade. So why not start now?

 

[hrdboild]

Outside doing it on a winning team which KingMilz already pointed out, it's worth noting that Lillard also had a higher TS%, PER and RPM (by a huge margin, Lillard was 28th in the league with 3.77 and Rudy was 133th in the league with 0.41).

Another point is that the only stats relevant for the All-star are those that happened before the All-star break, and the split loks a little different when you look at this stats:

Lillard.....21.5pts.....4.6reb.....6.3ast.....1.5stl.....0.3blk.....2.6TOs.....+5.9(+/-).....56.4TS%.....53 games played
Gay.........19.9pts.....5.9reb.....3.9ast.....1.1stl......0.5blk.....2.6TOs.....-0.7(+/-)......54.4TS%.....48 games played

So Lillard played 5 more games,
Scored 1.6 more points per game with higher shooting efficiency,
His 2.4 assists advantage outweighs Rudy's 1.3 rebound advantage,
And both turned the ball over the same amount of times.
Lillard's +/- is extremely better than Rudy's, and on top of all that Lillard also made this stats for a winning team- it was a no-brainer choice.

I had a much longer response to this typed up but the message board logged me out and it disappeared so you're off the hook.

Long story short, I consider the differences in PER and TS% are negligible. I'm sorry my carefully worded arguments for both were lost but you probably weren't going to agree with me anyway.
And RPM is a stat that I don't go anywhere near. There's some good analysis for why by a Spurs fan (here) and a Mavs fan (here) which are worth reading. Until ESPN publishes the formula they use to calculate those numbers, they're essentially meaningless to me.

Everything else is debatable but the main difference between my point of view on All-Star "worthiness" and the one you and KingMilz are using is that I think you reward team success in the playoffs and reward individual success in the All-Star game. That's not the way it's typically done, but that's how I personally think it should be done. The fan vote rewards marketability and the coach selections tend to reward team success and/or career achievement. But if I say a player was worthy of an All-Star spot I'm not looking at team record -- which is more of an indication of how likely they are to be selected -- I'm looking at all of the satistics which measure their individual performance. I don't know that I would have picked Rudy Gay over Damian Lillard if I had to pick one of them but I would have had to think long and hard about it and looking at all the numbers we have for both of them last season I think it's fair to say in retrospect that they were equally worthy of that individual honor.

 

[Amit149]

I had a much longer response to this typed up but the message board logged me out and it disappeared so you're off the hook.

Long story short, I consider the differences in PER and TS% are negligible. I'm sorry my carefully worded arguments for both were lost but you probably weren't going to agree with me anyway.
And RPM is a stat that I don't go anywhere near. There's some good analysis for why by a Spurs fan (here) and a Mavs fan (here) which are worth reading. Until ESPN publishes the formula they use to calculate those numbers, they're essentially meaningless to me.

Everything else is debatable but the main difference between my point of view on All-Star "worthiness" and the one you and KingMilz are using is that I think you reward team success in the playoffs and reward individual success in the All-Star game. That's not the way it's typically done, but that's how I personally think it should be done. The fan vote rewards marketability and the coach selections tend to reward team success and/or career achievement. But if I say a player was worthy of an All-Star spot I'm not looking at team record -- which is more of an indication of how likely they are to be selected -- I'm looking at all of the satistics which measure their individual performance. I don't know that I would have picked Rudy Gay over Damian Lillard if I had to pick one of them but I would have had to think long and hard about it and looking at all the numbers we have for both of them last season I think it's fair to say in retrospect that they were equally worthy of that individual honor.

That's fair enough, and I agree to an extent that the All-star game is more about individual achievement (I won't get longer into the discussion we can have about the degree of difficulty of putting the same stats on successful teams) but I don't think that would change the result.

Like I said the stats you brought are from the entire year (and I think Lillard should have gotten the nod with those too), but the only ones that mattered are the Pre All-star break ones (and Rudy had is best statistical month after it while Lillard had a worse statistics after the break).

While the TS% difference at the end of the year was close to negligible it was 2% at the All-star break, which is pretty significant (and based on the numbers I would guess the PER difference was also much bigger than at the end of the year.. though I'm too lazy too look it up ).
About RPM, it's not a perfect stat but I think it's something many take into consideration and it's pretty accurate in most cases, and when you add the stark difference in raw +/- numbers it can be a factor, but regardless if you won't take it is a + for Lillard it's another angle that Gay can't use.

Quite frankly looking at the numbers I don't see how you can even make an argument for Rudy since Lillard's stats are better across the board:
5 more games played, 1.6 more point per game, 2.4 more assists and 0.4 more steals to Rudy's 1.3 rebounds and 0.2 blocks advantage, that's a hard sell.

But I will admit that after taking a deeper dive into the numbers I regret calling it "crazy".
I still think it's an easy decision even without putting context and looking at advanced stats, but the box score numbers are colser than I thought.

 

[randymoss1881]

Trade Gay/Ben for Avery Bradley
Gives us about 35 mill in cap when a 8th pick salary is added
Sign Ryan Anderson to the max
Sign Loul Deng to 13mill for 4 years

Rondo/Collison
Bradley/Marco
Deng/Casspi
Anderson/acy
DMC/WCS

Deng/Bradley provide good defense AB being elite. Anderson is an elite floor stretcher who can also get his.
DC/Marco/Casspi/WCS provide a potential lethal bench.

 

[KingMilz]

Trade Gay/Ben for Avery Bradley
Gives us about 35 mill in cap when a 8th pick salary is added
Sign Ryan Anderson to the max
Sign Loul Deng to 13mill for 4 years

Rondo/Collison
Bradley/Marco
Deng/Casspi
Anderson/acy
DMC/WCS

Deng/Bradley provide good defense AB being elite. Anderson is an elite floor stretcher who can also get his.
DC/Marco/Casspi/WCS provide a potential lethal bench.

I worry about Deng or any of those Bulls from that era they all seem on a steep downfall, even Taj who I have wanted forever is just not the same.

Also no way would I max Anderson I'd rather throw money at Ersan or even that french kid on Denver who we could get way cheaper.

 

[Amit149]

Trade Gay/Ben for Avery Bradley
Gives us about 35 mill in cap when a 8th pick salary is added
Sign Ryan Anderson to the max
Sign Loul Deng to 13mill for 4 years

Rondo/Collison
Bradley/Marco
Deng/Casspi
Anderson/acy
DMC/WCS

Deng/Bradley provide good defense AB being elite. Anderson is an elite floor stretcher who can also get his.
DC/Marco/Casspi/WCS provide a potential lethal bench.

This is not possible since we don't hold bird rights for Rondo so we'll have to use cap space to sign him...

Outside that I doubt Boston will do that trade, I think you can probably get Deng and Anderson on a lower salary than you wrote though.

 

[randymoss1881]

This is not possible since we don't hold bird rights for Rondo so we'll have to use cap space to sign him...

Outside that I doubt Boston will do that trade, I think you can probably get Deng and Anderson on a lower salary than you wrote though.

Damn than I would let rondo go and let Collison start. Trade Gay/Ben for Bradley than throw money at Barnes

Collison/Bradley/Barnes with WCS/DMC in the front court with a defensive coach and our defense will be top 10. Also we'd have spacing and smart players.

 

[kingsboi]

Pursuing Mike Conley and Avery Bradley would be my top two priorities here, I'd also add in Al Horford.

 

[bajaden]

Damn than I would let rondo go and let Collison start. Trade Gay/Ben for Bradley than throw money at Barnes

Collison/Bradley/Barnes with WCS/DMC in the front court with a defensive coach and our defense will be top 10. Also we'd have spacing and smart players.

Well you stole my thunder. Barnes is a restricted freeagent, and the rumor is that the Warriors won't spend big bucks to retain him. So he would be at the top of my freeagent list. Barnes is a very good defender, who in a pinch, can play a little SG if needed. I'd also make that Gay for Bradley trade. If I have to throw in Ben, then so be it. I wouldn't mind making a run at Bradley Beal either, but I doubt we'd have the money to get both him and Barnes. I'd also like to pick up Delevedova as a backup PG. He's a tough hard nosed player that can shoot a little and defend.

Like you, I'd also let Rondo walk and hand the starting job to Collison. We'd be a little unproven at the PG positon once past Collison with Curry and Delevedova as the backups, but Bradley can also play the point. We'd still have a hole at the backup SG spot, unless we decide to go another round with Belinelli. For the fun of it, I'm going to speculate that Buddy Hield will slip down to us in the draft and we take him. Yeah, I'm drafting yet another SG. He's having a terrific year shooting 47% from the three and 49% overall. Plus, he defends well.

Center: Cousins/Koufos
PF: Cauley-Stein/Acy
SF: Barnes/Casspi
SG: Bradley/Belinelli/Hield
PG: Collison/Curry/Delevedova

 

[Bricklayer]

If I were in charge?

Cousins
Draymond
Kawhi
Klay
Curry

 

[Glenn]

If I were in charge?

Cousins
Draymond
Kawhi
Klay
Curry

How about the bench?

 

[pshn80]

50 win team vs 20 something win team

Therefore Cuz is rated how?

 

[KingMilz]

Therefore Cuz is rated how?

I've reached the point where I'm done talking about Cousins when he leads us to a plus 500. record or is traded he might be worth talking about but this shall be the last time he's not worth talking about anymore to me.

 

[randymoss1881]

Well you stole my thunder. Barnes is a restricted freeagent, and the rumor is that the Warriors won't spend big bucks to retain him. So he would be at the top of my freeagent list. Barnes is a very good defender, who in a pinch, can play a little SG if needed. I'd also make that Gay for Bradley trade. If I have to throw in Ben, then so be it. I wouldn't mind making a run at Bradley Beal either, but I doubt we'd have the money to get both him and Barnes. I'd also like to pick up Delevedova as a backup PG. He's a tough hard nosed player that can shoot a little and defend.

Like you, I'd also let Rondo walk and hand the starting job to Collison. We'd be a little unproven at the PG positon once past Collison with Curry and Delevedova as the backups, but Bradley can also play the point. We'd still have a hole at the backup SG spot, unless we decide to go another round with Belinelli. For the fun of it, I'm going to speculate that Buddy Hield will slip down to us in the draft and we take him. Yeah, I'm drafting yet another SG. He's having a terrific year shooting 47% from the three and 49% overall. Plus, he defends well.

Center: Cousins/Koufos
PF: Cauley-Stein/Acy
SF: Barnes/Casspi
SG: Bradley/Belinelli/Hield
PG: Collison/Curry/Delevedova

Boston has been connected with Gay a lot and Bradley/Smart are the same player. I think Gay/Ben is enough for Bradley and is worth it we'd have to hope that if Boston makes a splash for Griffin/Love it doesn't involve Bradley.

 

[KingsFanGER]

Boston has been connected with Gay a lot and Bradley/Smart are the same player. I think Gay/Ben is enough for Bradley and is worth it we'd have to hope that if Boston makes a splash for Griffin/Love it doesn't involve Bradley.

Bradley and Smart aren't the same player. Both are combo guards with a defensive mindset, but that's about it. And boston has Crowder. There is no need for Gay unless you think, that the team needs more ISO scoring ability.
Let's face it - most teams want a good defender, that's able to hit open shots and drive to the basket at the SF position. The ability to run the pick and roll is a plus.
Basically Crowder is superior to Gay in almost every aspect of todays game.
There is no need for fancy turnaround jumpers out of post ups most of the time. So while Gay is certainly the better basketball player than Crowder, he just isn't what teams are looking for anymore. Of course if Gay could suddenly become a good high energy defender and good spot up shooter, things would look differently, because the possibility to fall back to some ISO ball is great in the playoffs, when your offensive flow is stopped by the opposing team and you need a basket.
But somehow, despite having all the athletic gifts needed, Gay never adjusted his playstyle. Why he isn't a good defender and spot up shooter is beyond me. I don't get it. But that's the way it is and so I would assune, that guys like Crowder are more valuable for most teams.
Now playing Crowder as a small ball 4 and Gay as the 3 is possible, but breaking up one of the best defensive trios for it?
I don't know...

 

[twslam07]

The first thing I would do is try sign or trade for a above average PG unless we have a draft pick and land on a potential stud that might be a beast 2 or 3 years from draft day. Jeff Teague is the obvious one atm and I would offer the Hawks Gay for him.

Rono (no d), is not the short term/medium or long term answer we need a above average PG to compete in the NBA nearly every team without one like us is not in the playoff hunt or even a 500. team

I think you and I would both be in favor of seeing Teague in a Kings uniform next year. He's on an affordable deal and he compliments Cousins well. Trading for him might give Bazemore a little more incentive to sign with us.

 

[twslam07]

4 Team Trade
Bulls Get: Kosta Koufos & Ben McLemore
Hawks Get: Rudy Gay & Tony Snell
Rockets Get: Taj Gibson & Thabo Sefolosha
Kings Get: Jeff Teague, Trevor Ariza, & Montrezl Harrell

Trade Belinelli for highly protected future 2nd rounder
Let Rondo walk
Butler opts out
Do not extend a QO to Moreland
Waive Dukan
Draft Buddy Hield

PG - Teague/Collison/Curry
SG - Hield/Anderson
SF - Ariza/Casspi
PF - Cauley-Stein/Acy/Harrell
C - Cousins

At this point, we'd have $39.1 mil in cap space. With the remaining cap space, you sign Kent Bazemore (hopefully Teague is helping recruit), Ryan Anderson, & Cole Aldrich.

PG - Teague (30 min)/Collison (18 min)/Curry
SG - Bazemore (28 min)/Hield (8 min)/Collison (8 min)/Ariza (4 min)/Anderson
SF - Ariza (26 min)/Casspi (22 min)
PF - Cauley-Stein (18 min)/Anderson (30 min)/Acy/Harrell
C - Cousins (36 min)/Cauley-Stein (12 min)/Aldrich

Cousins - 36 min
Teague - 30 min
Ariza - 30 min
Cauley-Stein - 30 min
Anderson - 30 min
Bazemore - 28 min
Collison - 26 min
Casspi - 22 min
Hield - 8 min

Everyone in the starting lineup is a good to great defender and can matchup with anyone in the league on that side of the ball. Cousins would have plenty of room to operate with 40%, 38%, & 37% 3pt shooters around him (not to mention Cauley-Stein is starting to flash a jumper). Offensively, it goes through Cousins, but Teague is there to help be the secondary scorer in the starting unit. Not to mention a Cousins/Teague pick and roll would be much harder to guard considering teams will have to respect his shooting & ability to get to the rim. Off the bench, you have three very potent scorers in Collison, Casspi, & Anderson who all compliment Cousins very well and can space the floor. On top of all of that, you have Hield in the background developing and hopefully becoming a useful player to add depth.

No doubt in my mind that this team would challenge the Clippers & Thunder for a top 4 spot under the right coaching.