If the Draft Were Today...

I'm curious. If all other things are equal, do people on this site prefer a pick that has high potential but is less certain or a pick that is a bit more likely to give you something bankable but probably no all-star appearances?
 
pokuševski needs one more season in europe, at least. athletic PF's will "eat" him if he joins NBA this off-season.
he needs one more year developing in usa. to get some minutes next season. Being in usa at this point will speed up his physical development, plus he will be involved with his team activites sooner. Probably will be on a 2way
 
I'm curious. If all other things are equal, do people on this site prefer a pick that has high potential but is less certain or a pick that is a bit more likely to give you something bankable but probably no all-star appearances?
you can always get the latter via free agency in Sac. You can almost never get the former in Sac via free agency. Therefore any lottery picks should absolutely be the former.
 
I'm curious. If all other things are equal, do people on this site prefer a pick that has high potential but is less certain or a pick that is a bit more likely to give you something bankable but probably no all-star appearances?
Your question got me looking again at Saddiq Bey who is likely to be available at 12. He is a a player that I felt fits the latter, hence I wasn’t to keen on him.
After listening to Bey interview where he discussed philosophy and Villanova’s coach Jay Wright preparation of players I would be fine if he were the pick. He doesn’t appear explosive but has solid size and diverse skills.
If we were picking higher I think the question might get me thinking a bit more, for example would we go with a high potential player like Poku or Hampton with the 8th pick.
At 12 in this draft I feel the talent blurs a lot, an unlikely player or two will fall and rise. Fortunately I already have a lot more confidence in our new GM to make a sound decision.
 
I have to say the premise of the “high upside” pick collapses pretty quickly into impressions about how “athletic” someone is. Fred Van Vleet is a good example. Too small and not a superior athlete - may turn into a good floor general on the second unit, etc. Some guys just know how to ball, maximize their strengths, knockdown shots with range, and aren’t scared to compete. Draft me that guy please.

from DX: Although VanVleet may not have prototypical size and athleticism for his position, he is a winning point guard who has plenty of intangibles a team could fall in love with, which could help easily help him earn a roster spot. He has a number of attributes NBA teams look for in backups, with his ability to make shots, find the open man, defend with toughness and keep mistakes to a minimum. Those are skills NBA teams value, and VanVleet could certainly play his way onto a NBA team when it's all said and done. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/fred-vanvleet-58750/ ©DraftExpress
 
I have to say the premise of the “high upside” pick collapses pretty quickly into impressions about how “athletic” someone is. Fred Van Vleet is a good example. Too small and not a superior athlete - may turn into a good floor general on the second unit, etc. Some guys just know how to ball, maximize their strengths, knockdown shots with range, and aren’t scared to compete. Draft me that guy please.

from DX: Although VanVleet may not have prototypical size and athleticism for his position, he is a winning point guard who has plenty of intangibles a team could fall in love with, which could help easily help him earn a roster spot. He has a number of attributes NBA teams look for in backups, with his ability to make shots, find the open man, defend with toughness and keep mistakes to a minimum. Those are skills NBA teams value, and VanVleet could certainly play his way onto a NBA team when it's all said and done. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/fred-vanvleet-58750/ ©DraftExpress
You are correct. Athletisim has surprisingly little to do with players "potential". Better way to look at it is to ask questions like: "what is the most probable outcome of this player", "how valuable is the players skillset in todays nba", "what role would the player play in a championship contender if you realistically evaluate his developement", "how easily can you obtain a player like him in a free agency", "how likely will the player have a star level impact on winning", how scalable is his skillset (can he be impactful off the ball aka spacing the floor AND making smart cuts) and how can you gameplan defensively with said player".

Players jumping ability or straight line speed are extremely insignificant abilities compared to basketball iq for example. If you are a superb athlete but have a low basketball iq, you wont have a big impact on winning. Defense is a good example. Per one possession there are so many different things happening: rotations, switches and pick'n roll coverages that a player MUST execute instinctively all the time. A regular fan wont notice majority of those situations but if you dont have that knowledge/understanding/instinct as a player, you will be a net negative for your team.

Same goes offensively. There are so many situations where player absolutely needs to move correctly, cut when its beneficiall and move the ball according to defensive rotations that its extremely important to have high basketball iq in order to contribute to winning more than an average player in your position.

Athletisism is important when you are trying to determine if a player has the highest level of upside defensively. Its extremely rare to be A+defender without elite measurables, laterall quickness ect. But still the IQ comes first. You have it, then it can be discussed if you can become the guy that alone will improve a teams defense. Even then the IQ is the skill that makes that possible, without it you wont be good even if you were the fastest and most explosive guy in the league.

I might get in to the value of different skillsets more later but lets just say that when Kings had the #2 pick, I loudly advocated before the draft that it should not be used on a big man that operates near the rim who isnt absolutely elite defensively because they are not so valuable considering their effect to winning. Plus the market is oversaturated with players that can fill that type of role. That means you find players like Holmes, Baynes ect for nearly minimum salary.

What you never get in the free agency as a small market team is elite ball handling creator. Those guys get maxed out always. Other valuable player type is sizeable wing that can shoot and defend. Harrison Barnes is an average player at his position and costs a fortune. If you have a guy that moves the ball smartly, makes smart passes/cuts and can create even some, you have a max salary player. Dont go for guys that you can easily obtain in the free agency. Go for guys that you either wouldn't get in the free agency or guys that would be too expensive in the open market. Last time I really spent time studying a draft class through these principles were the Bagley draft. My "big board" was:

Draft is close so might as well try to put these prospects in order and in tiers

Tier1
1. Doncic
-Most important skill in todays Nba is shot creating for himself and others. Most important position is wing. Doncic is an elite playmaker, he will destroy traditional pick n roll coverage every time, he is actually very elite pick n roll ball handler. Pick n roll is also the most common way of creating offense. All in all its just a no brainer.

Tier2
2. Porter
-Porter being #2 would require a full go from team doctors regarding his back. All in all very risky pick, a lot of unknowns but there just isnt a lot of 6'11 wings with his skillset. Good shooter, very good off the dribble, very good shooting contested shots, good athlete, can finish at the rim some, can catch lobs, has some defensive potential as a weak side blocker. Again, very risky but the upside is just very good. Wouldnt be comfortable taking him top 2 without all the available info on his injury and potential future injury risk ect. Very hard to evaluate but since I dont have his medical records, I have to assume he is the same player as he was in high school.

3. Jackson jr.
Elite defender which is the most important skill for a center, showed some real defensive instincts in college and didnt just dominate with athletisism. Can switch about everything and thats extreamely valuable in todays Nba. Not an offensive force but can hit spot up and pick n pop threes and that increases his value over guys like Bagley. Not an elite rebounder. Almost 100% guaranteed valuable productive player in the Nba but very small chance of becoming a superstar.

4. Tre Young
Again, most important skills in todays Nba: Shot creation for himself and others. Young is good at both of those and has a chance of being elite in creating for himself. He is able to hit shots with consistency that most of the Nba players cant. He is also a great passer and assist rate usually translates very well from college to Nba (his assist rate was great).
Forcing teams to hard hedge or switch every pick n roll including him as a ball handler is extreamely valuable and will boost the team offense a lot. Defensively a big liability so he is only 4th and tier 2 on my board. Offensive upside is just so big and on top of the draft I value a potential offensive game changers a lot. A lot more superstar potential than JJJ but also much bigger bust potential so hes ranked #4 behind JJJ

5. Ayton
Hard to decide between him and Young at 4 or 5 but positional value puts Young ahead of Ayton. To me Ayton is a guy who will put up big box score numbers and will definetly boost the teams offense but defensive liability as a center havent been the recipe for succes in this league. On the top of the draft I want players that are able to contribute at the highest level of competition and I'm not seeing a probable path on Ayton being a best player or 2nd best player on a conference finals team. If he had shown even little bit more defensive instincts, I would be more confident with him but unfortunately that wasnt the case. Will probably be a little overrated for his whole career. Big (empty) stats on a bad team kind of player.

Tier3 i dont want to spend too much energy on. It would be something like Bamba, Bagley, Mikal Bridges, Miles Bridges, Carter. Bamba has a lot of upside because of his measurements and athletic testing, both Bridges are more pieces of already good team altough very valuable pieces (3&d wings so a premium position). Bagley is more of a gamble with higher upside and lower floor. Carter is a solid player but not enough upside for me to pick a center top 5-top10
Since the Kings have a bad pick this year I'm probably not going to bother studying the whole draft class that closely. That being said I have my own principles when I do that. When I play the game of who should we draft I always ask myself those questions that I said above and consider the value of the players skillset.

Ps: The point of bringing up my old big board wasnt to congratulate myself of a job well done. It serves as an example of my thought process on how I value the prospects and at least that draft evaluation turned out very well. I wont bring up my older big boards since I have not posted them here so they wouldnt be of any value as examples of certain thought process.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
I'm curious. If all other things are equal, do people on this site prefer a pick that has high potential but is less certain or a pick that is a bit more likely to give you something bankable but probably no all-star appearances?
You have best player available and you have positional need. Sometimes those two things can be the same, and that's more likely in a draft like this one where there isn't a lot of difference talent wise from one player to the other. In that case, I would suggest the Kings try and fill a need, which in my opinion, is more size on the wing first, and a legit center second. Which is why I lean toward Saddiq Bey, but would be happy with Vassell as well. I also like Patrick Williams, but feel he's not as court ready as the first two mentioned.

Every time the Kings went to a small lineup last season by moving Barnes to the PF position, we were seriously undersized at SF. Of course you could approach the problem the other way and draft a young PF like Precious Achiuwa, who I really like, but like Williams, don't think he's quite ready to contribute on a regular basis just yet.

Or you could throw caution to the wind and shoot for the stars with mystery men like Hampton, or Pokusevski. My idea of shooting for the stars would be to take Maxey at 12. I would bet a meal on me at Burger King that he'll be a better overall player than Hampton. Hang on, I need to check my wallet..
 
I'm curious. If all other things are equal, do people on this site prefer a pick that has high potential but is less certain or a pick that is a bit more likely to give you something bankable but probably no all-star appearances?
High potential unless you think we are a Jae Crowder type player away from a playoff berth. I don't think we are so I wouldn't waste the pick on players that would help keep the Kings in that 9th or 10th seed purgatory. That only makes it more difficult to draft the all star later down the road.
 
Heard from the Kings RealGM draft thread that the Kings are really high on Kira Lewis. Yes, please. Rumors came out of NY.

See here: https://nypost.com/2020/10/28/kira-lewis-on-knicks-radar-as-2020-nba-draft-approaches/

"In mock drafts, Lewis is pegged in the 12-17 range — probably because of his defensive shortcomings. According to a source, the Kings, at No. 12, are very interested."

Hamilton, Poku, Lewis... Don't care. Give me the highest upside dude at #12.
 
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Picking 12 is a tough one, not sure who will be there and for now it appears a talent blur amongst players in that range.
I was just reading that Calipari believes Maxey his next NBA guard success story. He has had a string of guards that appear real good once in the pros.
So today I’m leaning move on from Buddy and Bogdan unless he’s willing to eventually play the sixth man role and take Maxey at 12.
I recon in short time we will have one of the more exciting backcourts.
 
Bleacher Report latest draft has Killian Hayes dropping to us at 12. Now that means nothing but he’s a player I haven’t given much thought to. I always figured he'd go much higher and if we were to trade up I never considered him an option.
 
I simply don't like the chances of drafting a backup PG looking good in the long run considering next to Fox that's been a position of total DOA for all involved. If players like Bey, Nesmith, Achiuwa are there and there's no movement, just go the easy route. Those are players that you can always use in the modern NBA. Personally, I'm still going with the defensive upside and athletic ability of Achiuwa if it's a choice. He could be a safety net at PF if Bagley proves unable to transition to center since he's such a versatile defender. He's got lateral foot speed like Rodman.
 
I saw on NBAtv’s show of the top possible lottery picks they had a mock draft where Killian Hayes went to Sacramento at 12.
Phx took Kira Lewis
I believe they had Pat Williams going early to Detroit
 
I saw on NBAtv’s show of the top possible lottery picks they had a mock draft where Killian Hayes went to Sacramento at 12.
Phx took Kira Lewis
I believe they had Pat Williams going early to Detroit
Yeah, with guys like Williams rising Hayes is anywhere from 4 to 12. Also just watched a podccast on chat sport where they have Haliburton going to us at 12. WhoTF knows but if Haliburton drops to 12 Im dancin an Irish Jig.
 
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There have been trade rumors with Bogdan and Hield for both Bucks and Rockets - Rockets one included 12th pick. Thinking if the Kings want to keep the same team and the pick (in other words stand pat), go for the best rated defender in the draft regardless of position. They have enough offensive players. Their inept defense needs a shot in the arm; they need someone who will get after it.
 
There have been trade rumors with Bogdan and Hield for both Bucks and Rockets - Rockets one included 12th pick. Thinking if the Kings want to keep the same team and the pick (in other words stand pat), go for the best rated defender in the draft regardless of position. They have enough offensive players. Their inept defense needs a shot in the arm; they need someone who will get after it.
Yup. It’s gotta be Maxey, Okoro, Williams, Vassel or a couple others but this team desperately needs more wing defenders. I tend to lean towards Maxey because if we are looking for combo guards who can defend 1-3 and run the point in some instances, I think he’s about as close to Jrue Holiday you’re gonna get (in this draft atleast)
 
I think the Kings need to pick a very good defender who can guard the1, 2,3 and 4’s. Who remembers the frustration CP3 had by being guarded by Luc Mbah a Moute? We need a guy like that to put on the other teams best ball handler to play defensive dog.
 
There have been trade rumors with Bogdan and Hield for both Bucks and Rockets - Rockets one included 12th pick. Thinking if the Kings want to keep the same team and the pick (in other words stand pat), go for the best rated defender in the draft regardless of position. They have enough offensive players. Their inept defense needs a shot in the arm; they need someone who will get after it.
Unless there is another team involved I can’t figure a scenario where we would include our 12th and Buddy or Bogdan to pull a deal with the Rockets. If they picked ahead of us then yes but we are not getting Hardin or Westbrook ?.... are we. It’s early here in Australia.
The Bucks have been rumoured a lot, Donte and their 24th for Bogdan makes some sense.
 
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We need to pick the player that will be the most valuable in three years from now. Wether his value comes from offense or defense or both doesnt matter. Whoever will be the best player in three years, that should be our pick. It doesnt matter at all if the rookie can contribute to winning with us or not in his first year (most rookies cant). We wont be competing anyway so draft the player that will be the best in three years. We are not in a position to draft for a need (position, defense/offense). We wont be competing for at least three years anyway so try to get the guy that is the most valuable asset in the long run.
 
I think the Kings need to pick a very good defender who can guard the1, 2,3 and 4’s. Who remembers the frustration CP3 had by being guarded by Luc Mbah a Moute? We need a guy like that to put on the other teams best ball handler to play defensive dog.
The only guy who fits that description is Precious Achiuwa.
 
Who’s gonna be the Bol Bol of this draft and mocked in the lottery but slips to the front of the first round? I’m all for swinging for the fences in those 2nd round selections and I’m hoping a guy like Poku or Hampton slides a bit and we have the opportunity to take them later on
 
Who’s gonna be the Bol Bol of this draft and mocked in the lottery but slips to the front of the first round? I’m all for swinging for the fences in those 2nd round selections and I’m hoping a guy like Poku or Hampton slides a bit and we have the opportunity to take them later on
I have a feeling this guy named Cash Considerations is going to fall right into our laps.