I just don’t like the talent pool this year at the center spot. Of course the players I would covet are not leaving their Team and if they do probably not coming here. So I guess Vuc or AL are the best options. For some reason with our list for sg’s all of a sudden I feel bogie might be getting shipped out.
Horford Opting out?
- Thread starter sactowndog
- Start date
If I knew the Kings were going to give Horford and Vucevic equal 4 year contracts and I had to pick one, I'd pick Vucevic over Horford even though I think Horford is a better player right now.
Vucevic last year was better than any single year Horford has ever had. Did he just get up for a payday or is that the Vucevic going forward? He was essentially Cousins at his peak last year.
Horford's contract will come back to bite us in the ass bad in the end. Vuc is 5 years younger and similar enough to justify getting him over Horford. His advanced defensive stats are better than Horford's last year but I think they are boosted by the fact that he grabbed 5 rebounds more than Horford per36. I think Horford is a much better defender overall though.
Tough spot for Vlade. If Giles develops into Horford/Draymond, then he has an albatross contract on his hands that may be hard to get rid of. If he signs Dedmon and Giles doesn't develop, the position is stuck in mediocrity.
Vucevic last year was better than any single year Horford has ever had. Did he just get up for a payday or is that the Vucevic going forward? He was essentially Cousins at his peak last year.
Horford's contract will come back to bite us in the ass bad in the end. Vuc is 5 years younger and similar enough to justify getting him over Horford. His advanced defensive stats are better than Horford's last year but I think they are boosted by the fact that he grabbed 5 rebounds more than Horford per36. I think Horford is a much better defender overall though.
Tough spot for Vlade. If Giles develops into Horford/Draymond, then he has an albatross contract on his hands that may be hard to get rid of. If he signs Dedmon and Giles doesn't develop, the position is stuck in mediocrity.
I would just say that IMO Horford is that much better player than Vucevic and a bit better fit so to me it might justify giving Al the 4year contract instead of Vucevic.
Horfords advanced metrics are just brilliant:
Vucevic also has good metrics but not as good as Horford:
Horfords opponents fg% at the rim is 53,6 while Vucevics is 63,4. Horford is also imo a better fit since he is more efficent as a spot up guy. He is 1.153 points per possessions in his spot up possessions while Vuc is 0.811 points per possession when spotting up.
Vucevic has basically only one year of great production while Horford has a really proven track record as a player that truly contributes to winning. 4year contract to a 33year old obviously isnt ideal but his game probably will age well. If I had to give 4/112mil contract to one of them, its Horford. The first two years of that contract is most likely guaranteed to be better with Horford, then its hard to say. At least with Al you would get a guaranteed value for that money for couple of year. Vucevics lack of proven track record makes me choose Al in this hypothetical.
Horfords advanced metrics are just brilliant:
Vucevic also has good metrics but not as good as Horford:
Horfords opponents fg% at the rim is 53,6 while Vucevics is 63,4. Horford is also imo a better fit since he is more efficent as a spot up guy. He is 1.153 points per possessions in his spot up possessions while Vuc is 0.811 points per possession when spotting up.
Vucevic has basically only one year of great production while Horford has a really proven track record as a player that truly contributes to winning. 4year contract to a 33year old obviously isnt ideal but his game probably will age well. If I had to give 4/112mil contract to one of them, its Horford. The first two years of that contract is most likely guaranteed to be better with Horford, then its hard to say. At least with Al you would get a guaranteed value for that money for couple of year. Vucevics lack of proven track record makes me choose Al in this hypothetical.
You'll find no argument from me that Horford is the superior player right now. Vuc's numbers are actually better than I thought. What does OPOE mean though? That's the only one of his metrics that truly looks poor.
My concern is Horford's drop off at some point. Most big men start to drop off a cliff at the age Horford is right now. Pau Gasol was effective for a couple more years and Duncan was effective until he was 39 but that was strictly because his defense didn't waver. His offense fell off when he was 34.
If you sign Horford and he drops off a cliff in his 3rd year without Giles developing, now you have to let pieces of your core go because you won't be able to afford them. If it's Vuc and his production hasn't dropped much, you have some flexibility there because at least he will still have value. I guess it's kind of a risk vs. reward type deal. Team is better with Horford but you're in dangerous territory paying a guy that much money at that age.
My concern is Horford's drop off at some point. Most big men start to drop off a cliff at the age Horford is right now. Pau Gasol was effective for a couple more years and Duncan was effective until he was 39 but that was strictly because his defense didn't waver. His offense fell off when he was 34.
If you sign Horford and he drops off a cliff in his 3rd year without Giles developing, now you have to let pieces of your core go because you won't be able to afford them. If it's Vuc and his production hasn't dropped much, you have some flexibility there because at least he will still have value. I guess it's kind of a risk vs. reward type deal. Team is better with Horford but you're in dangerous territory paying a guy that much money at that age.
Its an offensive stat of points over expectation. Its an efficency stat basically. The definition on the site is: "POE uses league average efficiencies per possession in each Synergy play type to set an expectation. Then the stat tallies the points scored/conceded by each player and compares that to what an average player would be expected to score/concede on the same possessions."
Most likely there will be some drop off. The thing is, Horford most likely would actually be worth the 28mil/year at least for the first two years while Vuc even in his career year wasnt maybe quite worth that much and then was very dissapointing in the playoffs.
Cap wise, we would already be capped out at the 3rd year of that contract so I dont think it really matters that much on keeping out core together. If we needed to offload the last year of those contracts, I dont think the difference is that big on what it would cost us.
With Horford I think there is at least two years of high quality value he brings, with Vuc I'm not nearly as sure as he has only one great year and then he topped it of with horrible playoff performance. Especially in center position if I'm paying 25+mil to someone, I need guaranteed elite production. I'm not sure if I want to sign either to huge contract but if I had to choose, I'd sign Al
Most likely there will be some drop off. The thing is, Horford most likely would actually be worth the 28mil/year at least for the first two years while Vuc even in his career year wasnt maybe quite worth that much and then was very dissapointing in the playoffs.
Cap wise, we would already be capped out at the 3rd year of that contract so I dont think it really matters that much on keeping out core together. If we needed to offload the last year of those contracts, I dont think the difference is that big on what it would cost us.
With Horford I think there is at least two years of high quality value he brings, with Vuc I'm not nearly as sure as he has only one great year and then he topped it of with horrible playoff performance. Especially in center position if I'm paying 25+mil to someone, I need guaranteed elite production. I'm not sure if I want to sign either to huge contract but if I had to choose, I'd sign Al
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Vuc is a high volume scorer.The 20 and 10 always looks nice, but the playoffs showed that is as much a result of his opportunties as his abilities.
If he comes here as the 3rd or 4th option, he becomes an overpaid and under utilized role player. Will he be able to adjust his game and still contribute? Or will he just end up another overpaid big after a career year?
Horford has thrived as the ultimate role player, a leader, and could do for the Kings what Iggy did for GSW.
If he comes here as the 3rd or 4th option, he becomes an overpaid and under utilized role player. Will he be able to adjust his game and still contribute? Or will he just end up another overpaid big after a career year?
Horford has thrived as the ultimate role player, a leader, and could do for the Kings what Iggy did for GSW.
Let's keep in mind that adding picks is another way of adding talent. Salary dump deals add to the asset pool and can translate to talent via trades or development.
But this is not THE summer to make a move. We'd have cap space next summer depending on how it shook out this summer.
Realistically, you're probably looking at a scenario that has WCS off the books ($32.7 mil) or both WCS & Bjelica off the books ($38.5 mil).
This is another reason I wanted to see salary dump deals this offseason. You make some trade to take on expirings and 1st rounders while still having cap space next year to sign FAs (or take on expirings and 1st rounders again).
EDIT: Some guys that would be good signings next year:
But this is not THE summer to make a move. We'd have cap space next summer depending on how it shook out this summer.
- If we resign WCS & Barnes while signing all remaining roster slots to 1 year deals, we'll have $23.5 mil in cap space in the 2020 offseason.
- If we resign Barnes and let WCS walk while signing all remaining roster slots to 1 year deals, we'll have $32.3 mil in cap space in the 2020 offseason.
- If we let WCS & Barnes walk while signing all remaining roster slots to 1 year deals, we'll have $49.6 mil in cap space in the 2020 offseason.
- If we let WCS & Barnes walk while signing all remaining roster slots to 1 year deals. Then if we let Bjelica walk in the 2020 offseason we'll have $55.8 mil in cap space in the 2020 offseason.
- If we let WCS & Barnes walk while signing all remaining roster slots to 1 year deals. Then if we let Bjelica & Bogdanovic walk in the 2020 offseason we'll have $67.6 mil in cap space in the 2020 offseason.
- If we let WCS & Barnes walk while signing all remaining roster slots to 1 year deals. Then if we let Bjelica, Bogdanovic, & Hield walk in the 2020 offseason we'll have $81.3 mil in cap space in the 2020 offseason.
Realistically, you're probably looking at a scenario that has WCS off the books ($32.7 mil) or both WCS & Bjelica off the books ($38.5 mil).
This is another reason I wanted to see salary dump deals this offseason. You make some trade to take on expirings and 1st rounders while still having cap space next year to sign FAs (or take on expirings and 1st rounders again).
EDIT: Some guys that would be good signings next year:
- Alex Len - 27 (would be a good fit next to Bagley/Giles with his shooting, size, and rim protection)
- Kris Dunn - 26 (big PG who can help run the offense on the bench. Could fill in at PG/SG and spread the floor a bit)
- Jaylen Brown - 24 (perhaps his shot bounces back this season and could be an attractive 3&D wing)
- Brandon Ingram - 23 (same as above, perhaps his shot progresses and he develops into a player who could fit)
- Taurean Prince - 26 (could have some potential as another 3&D wing)
- Pascal Siakam - 26 (if Bagley starts to look like a future C, what better player to pair him with long term?)
- Domantas Sabonis - 24 (not a true rim protector, but he's athletic, strong, a good defender, a good rebounder, and has potential as a shooter)
- Otto Porter - 27 (could he opt out like Barnes & Horford? Ultimate glue guy that doesn't need the ball in his hands to elevate his team)
- Anthony Davis - 27 (very long shot here, but what a core it would be)
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When it comes down to it, getting Horford is akin to what Denver did with Millsap. They would be even be of a similar age when Millsap signed with the Nuggets.
The only reason I may balk is because of the fully guaranteed 4 years. If the last year came with a TO like what happened with Millsap, I'd be on board fully. But there's something about players of Horford's standing that just sorta offset the age.
Vucevic has the gaudy stats, but Horford is just a smarter, more winning player with a much more decorated pedigree and the superior defender. And even in the end I think he'll be less expensive than Vucevic.
The only reason I may balk is because of the fully guaranteed 4 years. If the last year came with a TO like what happened with Millsap, I'd be on board fully. But there's something about players of Horford's standing that just sorta offset the age.
Vucevic has the gaudy stats, but Horford is just a smarter, more winning player with a much more decorated pedigree and the superior defender. And even in the end I think he'll be less expensive than Vucevic.
I'd rather have D'Andre Jordan than either Horford or Vucevic. He's younger than Horford (He'll be 31 in July) and a better defender and rebounder and shot blocker than Vucevic (and he'll cost much less). Give me Jordan at center and a solid physical backup and I'll be happy with the center position.
Ifs buts and candy nuts!
It’s pretty clear to anyone paying any attention that Kings want to keep their core of 6 players together. Those 5 players are Barnes, Fox, Bagley, Buddy, Bogdan and Giles.
Two of those 5 players will be up for extension after the 2019-2020 season. Unless Kings want to become a production line of talent for other teams, they will look to sign extensions with Bogdan and Buddy ASAP. Even if the do go into RFA, Kings would want to keep them. That’s pretty clear to anyone paying attention.
The blue print for building contender is pretty simple. Draft well, keep salary cap flexibility and when you have your core, before their rookie deals start expiring, you make a splash in the FA. That year is now. Spend the money before you start extending players coming off rookie deals. Next year, that is really not as good an option as it is this year. Its how things get done, aunless you perennially want to lose your talent and be cheap. Kings are obviously looking to spend this summer and if they donkt it becomes that much harder going forward. They have to be smart how they spend the money this summer but the best, most efficient time to do it is now. Not next year or the year after or the year after that. Especially considering you will have at least 2 max level extensions in the not too distant future in Fox and Bagley.
It’s pretty clear to anyone paying any attention that Kings want to keep their core of 6 players together. Those 5 players are Barnes, Fox, Bagley, Buddy, Bogdan and Giles.
Two of those 5 players will be up for extension after the 2019-2020 season. Unless Kings want to become a production line of talent for other teams, they will look to sign extensions with Bogdan and Buddy ASAP. Even if the do go into RFA, Kings would want to keep them. That’s pretty clear to anyone paying attention.
The blue print for building contender is pretty simple. Draft well, keep salary cap flexibility and when you have your core, before their rookie deals start expiring, you make a splash in the FA. That year is now. Spend the money before you start extending players coming off rookie deals. Next year, that is really not as good an option as it is this year. Its how things get done, aunless you perennially want to lose your talent and be cheap. Kings are obviously looking to spend this summer and if they donkt it becomes that much harder going forward. They have to be smart how they spend the money this summer but the best, most efficient time to do it is now. Not next year or the year after or the year after that. Especially considering you will have at least 2 max level extensions in the not too distant future in Fox and Bagley.
I don’t have concerns over Al Horford’s age as I may have had a decade or more ago.
He just turned 33. Which means in year 4 of the proposed contract he’d just have turned 36.
In this day and age we’re seeing more and more pro athletes remain highly productive into their mid to late 30’s. Hell, in tennis — which has always been a young man/woman’s sport — the three best players in the men’s game are 32, 33 and a month short of 38. Serena Williams is 3 months short of 38 too.
This is basketball and not tennis, I get that. But the trend is occurring in numerous other sports, including the NBA. Historically, it’s been the Centers and PF’s that have been able to play into their late 30’s and early 40’s. I could list a lot of names, but Kareem and Karl Malone come to mind immediately, and they played well before this current trend and advances in sports medicine and nutirican.
In summary, the fact that BIGS like Horford have historically been able to play longer than other position types and the trends around all pro sports to get more mileage at a high level of play — I’d be ok with Horford being under a pricey contract until he’s 36 years old. I’m quite confident he’d be remain productive and a helluva leader for this team — similarly to the role Vlade held with the KINGS.
He just turned 33. Which means in year 4 of the proposed contract he’d just have turned 36.
In this day and age we’re seeing more and more pro athletes remain highly productive into their mid to late 30’s. Hell, in tennis — which has always been a young man/woman’s sport — the three best players in the men’s game are 32, 33 and a month short of 38. Serena Williams is 3 months short of 38 too.
This is basketball and not tennis, I get that. But the trend is occurring in numerous other sports, including the NBA. Historically, it’s been the Centers and PF’s that have been able to play into their late 30’s and early 40’s. I could list a lot of names, but Kareem and Karl Malone come to mind immediately, and they played well before this current trend and advances in sports medicine and nutirican.
In summary, the fact that BIGS like Horford have historically been able to play longer than other position types and the trends around all pro sports to get more mileage at a high level of play — I’d be ok with Horford being under a pricey contract until he’s 36 years old. I’m quite confident he’d be remain productive and a helluva leader for this team — similarly to the role Vlade held with the KINGS.
Hield and Bogdan don’t need to be extended this year. That’s the point. They can have their cap holds in place next year ($12 mil and $14 mil) and we’d still have a lot of cap space.
The other point is not to spend just for the sake of NEEDING to spend this year. You seemed to acknowledge that we need to be smart with how we spend but spending $60 mil in a smart way is no easy task. Especially in one offseason. Especially when we’re in a destination that is Sacramento.
Do I understand the idea of spending all of your cap space before rookie contracts come off the books? Hell yes I do. But I also understand that our franchise cornerstones are 20 and 21. Adding players who are going to help them compete in their primes is much more important than adding players who are 7-12 years older than them.
Making deals that add future 1sts is ideal. He could have done it this offseason and next offseason and really set Fox/Bagley up with a lot of future assets to hit their primes on similar timelines or to trade for players on similar timelines. You see this offseason as our last chance to spend. I saw this offseason and next offseason as our last chances to accumulate more assets for a future title run with Fox/Bagley.
Vlade doesn’t agree with that approach as we’ve gone yet another draft without making a deal like that. Vlade has been wrong before, and I think he’ll be wrong again when it’s all said and done.
The other point is not to spend just for the sake of NEEDING to spend this year. You seemed to acknowledge that we need to be smart with how we spend but spending $60 mil in a smart way is no easy task. Especially in one offseason. Especially when we’re in a destination that is Sacramento.
Do I understand the idea of spending all of your cap space before rookie contracts come off the books? Hell yes I do. But I also understand that our franchise cornerstones are 20 and 21. Adding players who are going to help them compete in their primes is much more important than adding players who are 7-12 years older than them.
Making deals that add future 1sts is ideal. He could have done it this offseason and next offseason and really set Fox/Bagley up with a lot of future assets to hit their primes on similar timelines or to trade for players on similar timelines. You see this offseason as our last chance to spend. I saw this offseason and next offseason as our last chances to accumulate more assets for a future title run with Fox/Bagley.
Vlade doesn’t agree with that approach as we’ve gone yet another draft without making a deal like that. Vlade has been wrong before, and I think he’ll be wrong again when it’s all said and done.
