The Hammer
All-Star
****ing excellent analysis.
[Grades] Grades v. Heat 11/19/2015
- Thread starter Bricklayer
- Start date
****ing excellent analysis.
KestrelKing
G-League
Had to vote no. I was quite optimistic for a winning season however our record and more importantly our small ball, no defense style of play has dashed my high hopes. One can only hope Karl comes around to playing the rookie more and installing a more defense oriented, slower paced style. I loathe small ball and it just seems stupid to do it with this roster.
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randymoss1881
Starter
Here we go with the sky falling people not even gonna get into that.
Anyway wee need to win @orlando, @charlotte, and @milwukee. Than come home and beat Minnesota, loose to GS, and beat Dallas. Leaves us with a 9-10 record and probably be 1-3 games from the 8 seed.
Anyway wee need to win @orlando, @charlotte, and @milwukee. Than come home and beat Minnesota, loose to GS, and beat Dallas. Leaves us with a 9-10 record and probably be 1-3 games from the 8 seed.
K
KingMilz
Guest
We could easily lose every single one of those, all those teams are currently playing better than us
Let's just be honest and frank right now... Karl's offense does NOT fit this roster. Point. Blank. Period.
This really really leads me to think that hiring Karl was either:
A) Panic- all Kings fans were calling for the hiring
B) Intention of trading Cousins- This goes with what rumors said about Karl being informed that they would trade Cousins(used as a sales pitch to lure him).
Karl needs players who can shoot. On the roster, we only have Belinelli, Ben, and Collison. Rudy and Casspi are decent shooters. In our starting lineup, the only real shooter we have is Ben. However, we're playing Ben as the cutter a lot, which leaves Rudy near the 3pt line. The problem with this is that, Rudy is not a good spot up shooter. Rudy is not quick, nor athletic enough to cut around near the basket. This is not a knock on him, but he's just not that type of player.
Karl also needs players who can play the PnR. Cousins is our main big, and let's be honest, he's not an above the rim player. PnR is not his strength, but Rondo makes it work. WCS is another PnR player, but he has poor hands. Unless it's a clear-cut lob, WCS will struggle to catch passes.
He also needs players who can dribble and attack the rim. Rondo is an excellent PG for this role. In our starting lineup, since Ben does not have a good enough dribble, so we avoid him a lot in different sets. Our drivers are Rondo, Gay, and Cousins. The problem for Gay when he drives is that there's normally not enough space in the paint. There's going to be Cousins, and WCS there (a majority of the time). This leads him to going for a lean in jumper, instead of attacking the rim. We're seeing less floor spacing for Rudy, and while these are the shots he's made before, they clearly aren't going in now. Since our PF, WCS/Kofus cannot space the floor out on offense, it comes down to Cousins. Cousins has shown the ability to knock down jumpers, which is why we're seeing him out in the perimeter more than we have before. Cousins is a really good driver for a big man, but do you really want to see him at the 3pt line as often as he is? You're almost giving Karl no choice, BUT to force him at the 3pt line more often. Rondo can't shoot. WCS can't shoot.
The only players that actually fit Karl's offense are: Rondo, Casspi, Belinelli and Collison. Maybe non-Toronto Gay.
Keep in mind that Karl has adjusted his offense to fit the team more. Yes we're scoring points, but I think the reason why we're losing is because we're not executing correctly on offense. If we were executing the way Karl wants us to, we'd be a .500 team right now. I believe that good offense, leads to good defense.
So my question is, did we hire him because of A or because of B?
Someone in the FO ****ed up big time.
KestrelKing
G-League
Kings could win 38-40 games which is still a big improvement but the window for .500 or better is closing fast. Every game counts and coach is not using the optimal strategies in my view. Kings must play to their strengths! Pound it inside. Play big not small. Slow it down and punish the opponent. Put them in foul trouble. Smh at this pace garbage.
I don't know how you can say George Karl's offense is a problem for this roster when we're 5th in the league in PPG, 10th in the league in FG%, and 4th in the league in 3pt%. Casspi and Cousins are both shooting the lights out right now. Rudy's 3pt% is down a bit so far this year but he's also not taking very many of them. DeMarcus has more 3pt attempts on the season than Rudy and that's in 4 fewer games! Also, Rondo and Cousins are cleaning up in the PnR. Rondo is averaging over 10 assists per game now and most of them come through PnR action. With the exception of our PFs and Kosta Koufos, every player on the team can attack the basket off the dribble (yes even Ben). Dribble drive offense doesn't require players to break down the defender one-on-one anyway. You move the ball to create seams in the defense and then drive into the space you've created. And even the guys who aren't creating off the dribble are doing a pretty good job of rolling to the basket and receiving the pass.
The big question though is why George Karl and DeMarcus Cousins can't seem to get on the same page. DeMarcus is playing well so far, but he seems even more frustrated than normal. I do think -- and this is one possible explanation -- George's game management so far has been a big problem. Before Collison got injured he was leaving Rondo on the bench for most of the fourth quarter. He's the one guy running the offense the way he wants it run -- it doesn't make any sense to hold him out of the game that long. The inexplicable benching of Ben McLemore 4 games into the season falls along the same lines for me. Ben is a perfect compliment to Rondo in the backcourt -- the only time he ever touches the ball is when he's finishing a play or making a pass. We need Ben taking and hitting shots with confidence and that requires a certain degree of familiarity with the other players on the floor. Jerking his minutes around isn't going to help. Who's starting at PF in the next game? Your guess is as good as mine which means the players don't know either. Maybe George thinks he's being clever and out maneuvering the opponent but I think he'd be better served developing some consistency and trust with a steady rotation before he tries to make those kinds of situational adjustments.
All of this falls under the category of attention to detail. The offense isn't fundamentally flawed, it just asks a lot of a group of players who just recently started playing together. They'll tighten things up and cut the turnovers in time. While I'd like to see a little less three point shooting and a little more driving to the basket, it's hard to argue with the results. The shots are falling right now so we should probably keep taking them. The defense remains a huge question-mark though and we could make a huge step forward right now if George would agree once and for all to abandon his fetish for three and four guard lineups and swingmen guarding the post and stick to only full-sized lineups the whole game. We have the personnel this season to play big -- let's play big dammit!
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Guys, don't blame Vlade for the defensive shortcomings. He went out and targeted Wes Matthews, Patrick Beverley, and looked at Corey Brewer. Nope, can't blame him at all.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
There are a lot of truths here, but my post above should help focus the blame off of Vlade.
One thing I've noticed about Gay this season that seems to be a problem is that he's not really running much pick and roll as the ball handler, rather, he's coming up and setting screens as a big in the set. I think it can work much better than it has but Gays been at his best in Sac when given the chance to make plays for his teammates. Rondo's been terrific at being Rondo, but he's starting to pound the rock a little too much. The rest of the team won't get in a rhythm just waiting for Rondo to pass it off to them for a quick shot. It looks great for Rondos assist totals but if you scan Rondo's history his teams have had more success the fewer assists he's racked up. There is probably a reason for that.
Defensively there are some major issues but I think it has more to do with a clear cut idea of how to defend than it does through poor personnel. They have yet to commit to a consistent defensive ideology and flip flop from one moment to the next on how they want to defend screen and rolls.
It's not the players, it's the system. These guys can defend just fine. With average defensive coaching, we're an average defensive team. But these guys don't have average defensive coaching, they have the same exact crap that's kept us in the defensive cellar for the last decade minus the short stint with Malone.
Wes Matthews can't guard Chris Bosh. Corey Brewer can't guard Hassan Whiteside. Patrick Beverly can't guard Dwayne Wade.
That's who these guys would be guarding half the time if they were on the Kings. Karl puts these guys in losing situations all game because of some fantasy theory he has that any player should be able to guard any player. Well this isn't make believe, it's the real world and in the real world you can't switch all damn game while giving the other teams easy mismatches to exploit.
And for the love of god when you have massive shot blockers like Cousins, Koufos and WCS manning the point, quit pulling your damn guards down into the paint to tickle the knees of the opposing teams big men while they kick the ball out to WIDE OPEN 3 point shooters all game. I mean I thought this crap was asinine when Keith Smart did it but it has completely jumped the shark now with Karl. How this man has gone to the playoffs nearly every year is completely beyond me. I see why his offense works but there's no way this defense will ever amount to anything other than bottom of the league and another 28ish win season.
Wes Matthews can't guard Chris Bosh. Corey Brewer can't guard Hassan Whiteside. Patrick Beverly can't guard Dwayne Wade.
That's who these guys would be guarding half the time if they were on the Kings. Karl puts these guys in losing situations all game because of some fantasy theory he has that any player should be able to guard any player. Well this isn't make believe, it's the real world and in the real world you can't switch all damn game while giving the other teams easy mismatches to exploit.
And for the love of god when you have massive shot blockers like Cousins, Koufos and WCS manning the point, quit pulling your damn guards down into the paint to tickle the knees of the opposing teams big men while they kick the ball out to WIDE OPEN 3 point shooters all game. I mean I thought this crap was asinine when Keith Smart did it but it has completely jumped the shark now with Karl. How this man has gone to the playoffs nearly every year is completely beyond me. I see why his offense works but there's no way this defense will ever amount to anything other than bottom of the league and another 28ish win season.
Kingston Jamaica
Bench
I liked this post very much! Let's get sober for a moment. I heard the Atlanta commentators (Dominique!) say that the Kings have one of the best benches in the NBA! In the Heat game the Kings played largely with the bench. Still the team was in there to the end and the Heat commentators were surprised how the Kings kept coming back from 10-15 point deficits time and again. When we, as fans, demand the players to leave it all on the floor and not cry, we, as fans, should also quit the crying. Every Kings player has a flat game here and there, but, overall, I'm pretty impressed about the product Vlade created.
Look, this team has ways to go to really gel, but you can see that we are looking at a really talented and hard playing group of real NBA players. It is still very early in the season and they need to get accustomed to each other. It's not helpful that the starting lineup keeps changing all the time. It would be a much shorter process if the same guys would play together. However, we are also learning how to deal with injuries. I'm very satisfied with what I'm seeing. We played against two of the best Eastern teams. If you haven't noticed, .500 record does not take you to a playoff seed in the East. It seems easier to accomplish it in the West.
So, let's cry a little less and let's take a closer look at our playoff chances. I'm a great believer in the Kings making the PO's. See, think about the alternatives. Look what happened to the Pelicans who changed their coach. Houston is going to sink in the same style. The other end, like Minnesota and Philly, are rebuilding their teams for many years already drafting the creme de la creme of the pack of them. Minnesota shows signs of getting into the PO competition, but I believe more in the Kings chances to get it done. Philly simply doesn't go anywhere. If I'm looking for resemblance, the Kings look something like the Blazers if LMA had stayed, just quite a bit better.
The reason why I pointed it out as a problem is because most of KF think it is too. Read the posts, everyone is complaining about our pace being too fast. They're complaining about how we're scoring so many points on such a fast pace, that as a result, we suck on defense. People are complaining that Karl likes playing Acy more...yet, Acy can actually spread the floor out on offense, unlike Kofus and WCS. We're not pounding the ball enough inside....Cuz is too far out. There's so many damn complaints about the offense here.
I'm addressing those complaints.
George Karl's defenses calls for an option of gambling in the passing lanes, and switches.
There's no problem with this...except, when you have someone like Belinelli on a Klay Thompson, or Rondo on a Andre Drummond.
I specifically singled out Belinelli because he's a poor defender. He has troubles getting through screens and catching up with his man. Unlike Ben, when Belinelli tries to go for the steal in the lane, he can't recover in time. This leads to too many open shots. The guys need better awareness. On deadly shooters, you should not leave them. On guys who aren't strong shooters, it's ok to leave them.
Rondo always switches really early for some reason. I don't think switching is all that bad, but there's a time and place for it. At the end of close games is not the time for it.
A lot of this team's defensive problems is on the lack of how to do it, like you said. We don't have the personnel to become a good defensive team. Rondo is an inconsistent defender, and with him, I think it's the effort part. Ben might be our best perimeter defender. Gay has been below average, to average. WCS is not great on boards, and has a tendency to over-help sometimes. Cousins is an average defender.
There is no real + defender like many of these other teams have. I hope that's what Ben can be.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
the second thing shown there is how few turnovers we're creating these last few games.
That has to kill Karl, because to whatever degree he does coach defense its always been of the aggressive jump everything scramble the game variety. But we've got problems there. Basically:
1) Rondo, Cousins, and WCS (who he won't play) are virtually his only defensive havoc makers out there
2) Ben, Anderson and Beli, even when they are defending, are inherently non-disruptive/low steal players at SG
3) Rudy has some stl/blk ability, but is generally fairly smooth/low energy, Casspi will hustle, but he's not quick on defense, Caron is old. In short I'm not sure we have a single defenisvely disruptive wing
4) DC is only midly disurptive and has appeared to swear off defense this year, even when he's playing his natural position and not as a mini-SG
5) Koufos has a defensive rep, but its obviously not of the steal/block/disrupt type.
Its my belief that this roster can play some defense, if properly utilized. And properly utilized to me means 1) slowed down; 2) a big dose of our 3 bigs, 2 on the floor at all time to take away the middle; 3)lots of Rondo at the point, 36+min and getting some hustle and scrappy plays out of him 4) lots of barking and screaming and yelling and hopping up and down and carrying of BDSM whips and floggers as you constantly try to drive your SGs+SFs to exceed their natural limitations
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chief bromden
Starter
Nice post! I watch the other team's feed quite a bit, and it's refreshing to hear them this year as opposed to previous years. I like the makeup of this year's team, even though they are losing at a normal Kings rate so far. The Kings are fun to watch this year, with Rondo making plays, and they are knocking on the door of winning games. I am going to give it 25 games before I assess this new roster, because we have more talent this year than we've had in a while (especially the bench).
We don't even need a + defender. Our guys are capable of playing defense but they're stuck in a scheme that's built on pure fantasy. We have the 2nd worst defense in the league and I can guarantee you that our players individual defensive skill sets do not add up to us being the 2nd worst defensive team in the league.
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings
There's a pretty clear line here. Give up 100 points or less and you're more or less in the playoffs regardless of how many points you score a game.
We're running the exact same crap we've ran here for years that has gotten us no where. Yet (for a decade now) these guys keep trying to pound this square peg into a round hole and it just doesn't work. How many more years of this nonsense until these idiots realize that defense wins championships? They're so mesmerized by the Warriors offense that they don't even realize it's the work they do on the opposite end of the court that's really winning them games.
We fail to close out at least 1 quarter per game it seems like. That 7-8 point swing has been a killer.
This team will get more familiar and more comfortable with each other as the season goes on. Firing Karl would do nothing for this team but put us back in the **** from last year. Ride it out. We'll be fine.
This team will get more familiar and more comfortable with each other as the season goes on. Firing Karl would do nothing for this team but put us back in the **** from last year. Ride it out. We'll be fine.
Oh I agree that the general sentiment you're expressing is shared by many. I also think it's missing the point. Slowing the game down is one way to limit how many points you give up. That's not the same thing as getting stops. No offense is going to score every time down the floor which means you're still going to lose if you can't disrupt the other team's offense, regardless of the pace you're playing at. PPG allowed is meaningless. Point differential is what matters. It's pretty clear to me that the difference between the wins and losses is the defensive intensity. We held Toronto to 19 points in the fourth quarter. We held Detroit to 43 points in the second half. Brooklyn we just managed to outscore without playing defense and the Lakers are a joke so they don't count. We can hang with anybody on offense, we've seen that, but playing good teams close for 3/4 of the game does nothing for our winning percentage. When they rachet up the intensity we have to be prepared to do the same. Better yet, let's do it first. Better still, let's do it all game long. One of the big advantages to having a good bench is that you can keep the pedal to the metal knowing that reinforcements are coming in. We should take advantage of that.
The Quincy Acy thing though is a whole other issue. I think some people are mad that we're playing a SF at the PF position because George Karl isn't comfortable playing a rookie. I'm one of those people -- though it's early in the season and George has been changing his lineup every other game so I don't know if any conclusions can be drawn yet. I do think that Cousins and Cauley-Stein should start every game. That's why you drafted him -- he's a defensive specialist. I suppose theoretically Acy can knock down some shots but so far he's taken 7 shots in 7 games (2 from three point range). Willie has taken 43 shots so it's obviously not offense which is keeping Acy on the floor. When Karl says "I like the energy he gives us out there" that's code for "he's not a rookie so I feel I can trust him more". Energy is a buzzword coaches use when there's no actual production there to back up their hunches. I actually think Acy has looked pretty good in limited stretches though, I'm happy he's on the bench. He's also playing a lot less minutes than people think he is, despite getting a few starts. It's also quite possible that Willie isn't ready to play more than 20 minutes per game yet for conditioning reasons. If this roster has one weak spot it's depth at the PF position. Not that I miss JT or Carl Landry, I don't, but Vlade needed to get us 1 legit NBA veteran PF this off-season and while he tried to make that happen, it didn't work out for whatever reason. That should be our priority in the off-season but in the meantime we should take a look at Eric Moreland off the bench. Everyone else has got a shot so far and theoretically he gives us more of what we need there -- size and intimidation factor -- than Acy does.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
When you slow the game down it maximizes your size advantage. Lets you compress the court, and then take away half that compressed court with big bodies inside.
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I'm in favor of making smarter decisions with the ball. That may require them to slow the game down a little bit. Nothing is worse than throwing away a possession because you have a breakaway opportunity and don't convert. Not only do you negate your last stop, but you don't even run any time of the clock before giving the ball right back. Also turning the ball over outside the three point line where nobody can get back fast enough to defend -- which we've done a fair amount so far. Personally I prefer to watch half court offense grind out wins, but running can be fun too if you have players who make good decisions in the open court. I'm not married to any particular offensive philosophy. Cousins jacking threes is not something I would have encouraged, but I have to admit it's working like gangbusters so far. Last season defenders double-teamed him in the post all game. You're not going to double-team him at the three point line which ultimately gives him a better line of attack at the basket and he's drawing more fouls than he did last season when we were pounding the ball inside all game. If Cousins can get to the line 11 times per game, we're going to be effective.
So overall, I think the criticism of the offense is unwarranted. If there's one thing George Karl has been effective at since he got here it's juicing the offense. That's what he's good at, it's why Vivek wanted him in the first place. What's missing is defensive intensity. Guys are working hard on offense and then taking plays off on defense. That's ass backwards and it needs to stop. I worry that George Karl isn't the right coach to instill that message though. Which gets us back to the root problem -- the core philosophy of the organization is flawed. We all know when and where this started. We need a defensive specialist assistant coach on our bench but how do you tell that to George Karl without him feeling like his job is threatened?
rainmaker
Hall of Famer
All this post tells me is if you actually watch Den, what's happening out there is beyond your understanding. You're not separating individual defenders from team defense and defensive game planning.
Not a single player in the Den starting lineup has proven at any point to be an above average defender. Mudiay will get better but when he's playing next to Gary freaking Harris, who's had little to no success in this league, Gallo who's slow footed and Faried/Hickson who've proven to be below average individual defenders at every stop, it's the game planning which is making the difference, just as it did here where with worse defenders than Karl has Malone produced a better defensive squad.
Jokic is an above average defender though.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Ask me if I care if George feels his job is threatened.
Sac.Kings
All-Star
Well do you?....
If it was my team I'd fire him the first time he played three guards on the court together and Rudy Gay at PF
but in practical terms it's not so easy. We need to have a replacement lined up already before we fire the coach this time, and trying to negotiate that in the Twitter age without anyone knowing about it and leaking it to ESPN is probably impossible. Which means you've got a coach who knows he's being fired before he's actually fired and players who are in the awkward position of playing for a coach that they know is on the way out. Unless Vlade steps in and coaches the team which, now that I think of it, might not be a bad idea actually.
ArcoKings
Starter
Brick posted this troubling stat at the very beginning: George Karl ball has us giving up 108.2 pts/gm, which would be the most since our stellar 17 win season in 2008-09 when we gave up 109.3.
This says it all. No defense = LOSING. Also, the T.O.s are killing us. At least 3 of our losses this early in the season could have been wins with better ball control and defense. All of a sudden we are 4-9.
This says it all. No defense = LOSING. Also, the T.O.s are killing us. At least 3 of our losses this early in the season could have been wins with better ball control and defense. All of a sudden we are 4-9.
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