Grades v. Cavaliers 03/01

mcsluggo · Mar 2, 2006

1kingzfan, interesting post, but you need to go back to stats 101 and study the difference between correlation and causation.

Saying things like "Which King’s measly 11 points or more has the most impact on the team’s win-loss record???" doesn't make any sense. It is almost akin to saying that when Mateen was on the bench spinning his towel and whooping the King's won 60+% of their games but when Jamaal is cheering the kings are below 50%. ergo, Mateen is a much better cheerer.

If you want to argue something aout his GOOD, impact games, ok, but that other dog won't hunt.

However, going the other way:
As a "flow" type player (ie take the high % stuff when it is given to you) Kevin's stats will by definition be pro-cyclical. He will score more points when everything is flowing well (and the kings are likely to win) and he will be shut down more when the kings are struggling.

mcsluggo · Mar 2, 2006

Reading back, it looks like I'm being critical of KM.

I am, if you are measuring him on the "star" scale. But in one year he has turned himself from a player on the border of suckitude to a real contributor. That is damn good. If he continues this trajectory, he'll be Mith Richmond in about a year and a half, MJ in 3 years, and who knows when he turns 30!

BMiller52 · Mar 2, 2006

mcsluggo said:

Reading back, it looks like I'm being critical of KM.

I am, if you are measuring him on the "star" scale. But in one year he has turned himself from a player on the border of suckitude to a real contributor. That is damn good. If he continues this trajectory, he'll be Mith Richmond in about a year and a half, MJ in 3 years, and who knows when he turns 30!

I could definately live with that lol.

LilMissDiva · Mar 2, 2006

Bricklayer said:

Oh, man - was that moment scary as heck! My eyes were bugging out praying to whatever gods might answer back that Artest please keep his cool. He did however - and for that I give him an A+++

What was funny was for a split second when the game finished out, they showed him again going over to one of the refs trying to continue to foul conversation. The ref just kind of laughed at him and patted him like saying "man, get over it...".

Good game anyway, for peet's sake they won!

1kingzfan · Mar 2, 2006

mcsluggo said:

Wow, I think YOU are the one that needs the lesson in causation versus correlation.

Arguing that towel waving/cheering by someone not impacting a game is anything akin to points production by a player, which directly relates to the scoreboard and thus if a team outscores its opponent or not, is absurd.

You can find meaningless correlations to just about anything in basketball or life, for that matter. But do you think that the Kings' record when Kevin scores 11+, 14+, or 20+ is merely a statistical anomaly, a meaningless correlation? Check out what happens when his teammates score similarly. I don't know about you, but I clearly see cause and effect at play here.

That's not saying that Kevin is an all star (because he ain't), or even the key to the team's fortunes. All I'm saying is that Kevin's scoring in relation to the Kings' record is indeed MEANINGFUL, and it cannot be discounted because it's hard to believe or understand or because somebody doesn't want to admit that they were wrong earlier about Kevin's becoming an impact player.

Perhaps it does indeed mean that the offense is really flowing on those days, Kevin gets more than his usual share of touches, and thus Kevin excels to higher heights. Perhaps it means that when Kevin is a greater threat in a game it opens things up for his teammates. Perhaps it means that the league's current most productive scorer has an even greater impact on his team's fortunes when he scores more, due to his tremendous efficiency. Who knows?

The game is far too complex to assign one single solitary reason for an outcome, but to imply that Kevin's scoring effect on the Kings' record is merely a correlation rather than one of the causes for it...well, that one defies logic.

playmaker0017 · Mar 2, 2006

1kingzfan said:

I would say it.

I think people have underestimated what Kevin Martin is doing out there.

He's helping spread the floor. He's attacking the rim. Playing smart basketball. He's being efficient.

In fact, I would hasten to say he has as much to do with the current 10 game record as Artest.

Martin is a x-factor. When he plays, we do well.

kupman · Mar 2, 2006

All I can say is that I feel vindicated as a K9 supporter all year long. This guy is becoming an almost certain double-double each game. He is playing really well despite the fact that his shooting remains very inconsistent. By the way, has anyone else noticed the resemblance between K9 and Dave Chappelle?

VF21 · Mar 2, 2006

Am I the only one who thought Bricklayer was saying that while on the road Kevin needs to put the ball on the floor once in a while and drive inside, either getting the bucket or drawing the foul? He seems to do it at home, and I thought Brick was saying he just needs to do it out there in the cold, cruel world, too...

As far as "when Kevin scores ...." stuff, you can break that down a lot of ways. Primarily, IMHO, it says when the Kings offense is working efffectively and the team is passing, cutting, thinking and trusting, one of the benefits is that Kevin Martin scores more points. In addition, when those things happen AND Kevin scores more points, the Kings win.

Other than that, simply saying the Kings will win when Kevin scores a certain number of points is just like saying when I wear my purple slippers AND drink a certain flavor of coffee the Kings will win.

Yes, Kevin playing well is a very good thing. But it's not all on him. It's on the entire team. When Bibby gets 12 assists, we seem to win. When Brad is 2 assists away from a triple-double, we seem to win. It's all inter-related.

I think Bricklayer is way too hard on Kevin at times, but I have to believe part of it is because he's compensating for the tendency of at least one member of this forum to ONLY post when he can point out something about Kevin's game that he thinks we don't know.

VF21 · Mar 2, 2006

kupman said:

I still have problems with Kenny's tendency to have a brain fart moment at least once a game, but other than that, I'm really happy with how he's starting to play. And I think because he's feeling more comfortable, he's starting to play less selfish ball. That only comes on a team when the members of the team trust each other. That's returning to the Kings and I have to think Artest has done a lot to restore the vaunted chemistry.

All in all, I think Thomas is playing about as well as we could ask. And that, too, is a good, good thing.

Warhawk · Mar 2, 2006

playmaker0017 said:

Agreed - his hustle and efficiency have been great. I don't know about the Artest comparison, since I think the whole team has stepped it up because of Artest, but when you say "a(n)" X-factor and not "the" X-factor I'm right there with you.

1kingzfan · Mar 2, 2006

VF21 said:

Then why is the Kings' record not NEARLY as gaudy when other players score greater numbers of points? KT seems to have that "effect" somewhat, but it is not reflected in wins and losses for other players that have strong scoring games.

VF21 said:

If you read all of my last post, I made it clear that this is NOT my position, that the game is too complex and too many factors come into play, but merely that the win-loss record when Kevin scores is meaningful.

And BTW, wearing your purple slippers or drinking a certain coffee flavor doesn't put points on the board for the Kings. It probably has slightly less of an impact than who is towel waving from the bench each game. How much a player scores does have just a little to do with the final team points and thus the game's outcome.

VF21 said:

Those two events may be true, I don't know, but they certainly don't happen very often enough for us to see if there is a real trend from getting the "winning" benefit of those very nice performances. There is plenty of data right in front of us (ie, many games) on what happens when Kevin scores.

VF21 said:

Wow, I thought one of the purposes of this board was to share information with each other. I can guarantee you that nobody here knew what the team's record was when individual players scored at various levels. At the least, I would think members here would find it interesting, rather than insulting, regardless of what my take on the data might be.

VF21 · Mar 2, 2006

1kingzfan said:

Well then I guess the entire board owes you an incredible debt. Thank you so much for sharing your vast wisdom and insight with us mere mortals.

Dude, you're not the only one sold on Kevin. A lot of us like him. The difference is that you're acting more like a Hedo homer than even the Hedo homers. And when you do that, it is going to create a certain boomerang effect.

It's about various opinions and differing takes. You are totally and completely sold on Kevin, which is way cool. Others may or may not ever come to your point of view, but that doesn't mean they're wrong. The main thing I find intriguing is that he's stepped his game up so much already. WHEN (and notice I said when and not if) he starts doing it on the road, more and more people will be cheering for him. He deserves it... he doesn't need someone standing on the sidelines and beating people over the head to get them to notice him.

playmaker0017 · Mar 2, 2006

VF21 said:

Hey, I don't know about you - but when I played I was VERY superstitious.

I wore the same stank-butt undershirt for two seasons. Never washed it until after the season was done. I'd have worn it a third year had my girlfriend at the time not thought it was a nasty shirt and tossed it.

So - keep wearing the purple slippers and drink Snikerdoodle Nut coffee ... I won't think any less of ya'!

VF21 · Mar 2, 2006

Oh believe me. The list of things that I must do before a game, the attire I wear, the coffee I drink, the slippers, the placement of the various lucky items, etc. all come into play...

Wait until the play-offs when you get to see the unveiling of the traditional and frightening toilet paper roll holder voodoo dolls.

playmaker0017 · Mar 2, 2006

VF21 said:

Oh man. I'm scurred now.

I didn't know how deep the rabbit hole really went.

JJ22L · Mar 2, 2006

kupman said:

All I can say is that I feel vindicated as a K9 supporter all year long. This guy is becoming an almost certain double-double each game. He is playing really well despite the fact that his shooting remains very inconsistent. By the way, has anyone else noticed the resemblance between K9 and Dave Chappelle?

LOL...please...

JJ22L · Mar 2, 2006

Warhawk said:

I have to agree...comparing martins impact to artests...is in my opinion silly.

Bricklayer · Mar 2, 2006

1kingzfan said:

I was going to let this go because I feel a certain amount of pity for you during those moments when I'm not tempted to just ban you for being a blowhard, but you do realize that you just made my point for me don't you? That the more Kevin scores, the better it is for us. That him being passive is BAD for us.

As an aside, the Home/Away split means W/L for Kevin is always going to be skewed until he balances things. He basically plays well in our easier (home) games and not as well in our tougher (road) games. Him scoring more points for us is good. But he does it far more often in games that we would be favored to win anyway, and hence W/L is inflated. Just as a clear example -- Kevin has 12 20+ pt games this season. 9 of those 12 were at home.

Kingsgurl · Mar 2, 2006

Given the struggles this team had winning at home earlier, I'm not sure I would call ANY game 'easy' Home, or away. The success at home has been fairly recent.

Bricklayer · Mar 2, 2006

When you're 19-11 at home and 8-19 on the road clearly if your best performances are tied to the homecourt you've got a much higher chance of them being wins. Conversely, if his best performances were tied to the road, the W/L in them would be considerably lower without Kevin having performed any worse.

In any case, given that Kevin went through a stretch there early in the season where he was out of the rotation the numbers might be even more dramatic than the above. Since Kevin became a starter it wouldn't surprise me if we had won 75% of our home games and 25% of our road games.

playmaker0017 · Mar 2, 2006

JJ22L said:

I think Artest's impact has been profound.

But, don't ignore Martin's impact. He's doing things that can't be found on a stat sheet. He's helping Artest a lot.

kupman · Mar 2, 2006

JJ22L said:

The resemblance is really quite uncanny….it makes me laugh when I think that K9 could stand-in for Dave Chappelle on his show some night.

1kingzfan · Mar 2, 2006

Bricklayer said:

Oh, please, sir, you play the “ban card” on me when you are the ONLY one in this exchange, and a moderator at that, that has resorted to name-calling?

Tsk, tsk.

One more response from me to your last post and then you can have the final word and I won’t reply.

There’s a greater chance, true, but there’s absolutely no guarantee that the team’s record when you score will be FAR SUPERIOR to the overall home record. In Kevin’s case, the team record is much better on the ROAD, too, when he scores.

Here’s the breakdown on home/road records for Kevin’s scoring games:

11+ points Home 12-2 Road 4-5

14+ points Home 12-0 Road 3-4

20+ points Home 9-0 Road 2-1

Kevin’s scoring appears to have something to do with the team’s performance, whether they are on the road or at home.

BawLa · Mar 2, 2006

Bricklayer said:

Hilarious.

Kingsgurl · Mar 2, 2006

I do find it interesting that KT also seems, to a lesser extent, to have a positive out-come on the W column when he scores well. I don't think, with the sample size being as large as it is, that it is just a statistical anomaly.
So, what does it MEAN? Do games where Kevin, and/or Kenny score well coincide with increased out-put from other starters? Is it because these two are not the normal focal point of the offense, so in games where they ARE scoring, is it because the whole TEAM is more involved? Is it as simple as them being 'more aggressive' or is it more of an involvement factor?
It didn't seem Kevin got many touches last night where he was in position to score. There were the 2 plays to begin each half, designed plays which he scored off of.
With Kenny, is he being more aggressive or is it that the team is going inside more, intentionally, and not settling for jump shots? Some of his scoring, of course, is from out-side, so does it have anything to do with the EFFICIENCY of his shot that day?

OHSacFan · Mar 2, 2006

Aw KG, you know the main reason the Kings won last night had nothing to do with points and shooting percentages. It was because we were at that game!

Kidding, I'm only kidding! hahahahahaha But now I wonder what our W/L percentage is when any Kingsfans.com member is at a game.

Just a thought.

Kingsgurl · Mar 2, 2006

Um......well I know I've been to quite a few losses this year, so MY percentage isn't very good

Although it does seem to be getting better. Perhaps I wasn't loud enough early on?

OHSacFan · Mar 2, 2006

Kingsgurl said:

Nah, I doubt that.

Bricklayer · Mar 2, 2006

I think GGG is batting nearly 1.000%

GoGoGadget · Mar 2, 2006

Bricklayer said:

Nearly my bleep.

I'm batting 1.000% at all sporting events attended in my 27+ years.

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