The top of my board had Ayton as #1, Bagley as #2A, and Doncic as #2B after I spent some time researching the Slovenian sensation. Since Phoenix was never likely to pass on Ayton, I figured I would be happy with either Bagley or Doncic. I don't see either of them as can't-miss prospects, but I like enough about both of their games to be very excited to see how they develop for the Kings and the Mavs.
That said, part of me does honestly wonder about the wisdom of picking either Ayton or Bagley at the top of the draft, given the holes in their respective games and the shape of the modern NBA. I'm still stuck favoring players like that when I probably shouldn't. Is it more wise to take a wing player who could be transcendent despite his athletic shortcomings? It does seem like the rules and the refs and the analytics of the three-pointer have made it much easier for guards and wings to achieve stardom, whereas big men have to fight an uphill battle with no guarantee that they will have a winning impact on their teams. I like Bagley a lot, but he's not going to have an easy path to stardom. Somebody like Trae Young could turn out to be the best pick of the draft, and it won't be because Ayton or Bagley aren't gifted in their own right; it might just be that it's easier for a player like Young to succeed in the modern NBA.
Because of these concerns, I'd probably give the Kings a B+ (as if it matters). I'm genuinely bothered by the fact that players like Ayton and Bagley aren't the sure things they would have been in a different era. It seems unfortunate that the game has marginalized so many talented bigs by making their pathway to success so narrow. You have to be tall, long, and quick. You have to be able to face-up and make plays. You have to be able to protect the rim and shoot the three. You're expected to be the last line of defense and you'll have to show out on smaller players above the arc. You've got to rebound well, too, and sometimes you'll still need to post-up on top of all that. It's no wonder teams are frequently only putting one big out on the floor at any given moment. There are only a handful of players who can actually satisfy all of these requirements.
But hey, what do I know? NBA fans seem to love the way the game has evolved, and judging by Adam Silver's glee over the number of three's taken last season, I'd guess it's not about to change anytime soon. I'm hoping the best for Bagley, but I have more doubts today than I did before the night of the draft lottery.
