When the player's season-wide minutes per game varies between 26.6 to 38.2 (not counting his rookie year), then...yeah, maybe it's not ideal. Per-minute stats would be preferable in my mind.
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When the player's season-wide minutes per game varies between 26.6 to 38.2 (not counting his rookie year), then...yeah, maybe it's not ideal. Per-minute stats would be preferable in my mind.
HighFlyingMonkey
Starter
No, I mean worst. TS% by year in Martin's career below. Rookie year in red. Last year in yellow.
Third worst, and the ones worse are the two seasons before last. Rebound rate below. Last year in yellow:
Second worst, and the worst was the season before last. Free throw rate. Last year in yellow:
There are a lot of irrelevant facts in these paragraphs which don't support the purported argument.
1. It doesn't matter what his raw points per game are. What matters is his scoring ability, which has been on decline since he's aged and left Houston. He's become less and less efficient since his peak. The fact that he's scored more or less in a raw sense is also dependent on how many possessions he's used.
2. His style of play has stayed consistent regardless of his place in the "pecking order", so to speak. He still comes off screens, he still spots up, he still cuts off the ball, and he still uses his quickness to draw fouls. What has changed is the number of possessions teams are investing in Martin. In OKC that number was dramatically lower than in Minnesota, hence the illusion of some kind of Martin renaissance. When digging deeper into Martin's production, it hasn't changed the trend since his peak years in Sacramento and Houston. He is still becoming less and less effective of a player. The unsophisticated can be duped into believing that a greater commitment to Martin leading to bigger raw stats is evidence that Martin is still just as good as he was five years ago in his peak. There is actually significant evidence to support that Martin will never be the same guy again because what how he is using those possessions has become less effective. Hence, he is a declining player at 31 years old, and will probably continue to decline in effectiveness as he progresses into his 30s.
3. I don't actually care whether you believe he is decline or not.
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And the per-minute stats hold up. So, what's the big deal?
You know what the most frustrating part of this whole argument is for me? I DON'T LIKE KEVIN MARTIN! I don't want him on the Kings! Anybody who's been on this message board for longer than a minute and a half knows that I don't like Kevin Martin. It makes my head numb that I'm standing up for this guy. The only thing that strikes me as more ridiculous than me standing up for Kevin Martin is Bricklayer standing up for Kevin Martin.
We don't need Martin to be the same guy; we need him to be the #3 option. The numbers say he can be. Your so-called "evidence" does not refute that.
randymoss1881
Starter
YES if we gonna trade for a SG Afflalo would have been perfect Denver got a steal.
Actually yes, it's only slightly better than FG% to address a players scoring. Per minute stats aren't much better either because they often suffer from a lack of sample size to accurately predict anything.
And you think sixty-eight games reflects a lack of sample size?
In my book Ben was the clearly the weakest link in our starters last year - by far. He hasn't given me cause to expect anything but a small improvement which leaves him as grossly deficient as a starter. So we need a different starter NOW and, much as I have high hopes for Nik, he's not it.
HighFlyingMonkey
Starter
I believe our dispute was whether Martin was in decline or not. I'll take this as a concession of the point on your behalf.
Whether or not he can still be useful to this team is shifting the goalposts.
It is no such thing. Martin is not in decline. Leveling off, sure.
HighFlyingMonkey
Starter
If by "leveling off" you mean "getting progressively worse" then sure. Hard to see how that is distinguishable from "decline".
There was no regression from 2012-13 to 2013-14.
No of course not. He was basically at his career minutes last season with Minny. So while the PPG looks like he "rebounded," he regressed in every scoring category that actually matters. Not that the numbers are bad mind you; 25% USG, .553 TS% is still pretty good, but it's a far cry from Martin's calling card of being mega-efficient at high levels of USG. And the other major issue is that Martin needs that elite efficiency because he doesn't do anything else on the floor. Horrible rebounder, doesn't create for others, bad defender. So yea, his declines in efficiency and ability to get to the FT line are incredibly important to watch and look out for in a potential deal for him
Why would we want Martin to have a high USG?
HighFlyingMonkey
Starter
Incorrect, but irrelevant to whether Martin is in a general decline in his career. One unusually cold day does not disprove global warming.
Because that's the player you're trading for? He's been a 1st/2nd option USG% for most of his career. Even playing 3rd fiddle to 2 of the most ball-dominant players in the league had him above 20% USG. It's not plausible to think he'd just automatically change his game to becoming end of career Ray Allen for us, when he's shown no sign of changing his game, despite the scoring roles he's been in the past 4 seasons from Hou-OKC-Minny
How are upward trending numbers irrelevant? We won't know whether it was an aberration unless he falls off again. I don't believe that there's any reason to believe he's going to.
Actually, looking at the per-minute stats it appeared that about half of your "not bottom three" claims did not hold up.
This I will grant wholeheartedly and without reserve!
20% USG would suit me right down to the ground. I'd also say that his efficiency would go up playing with Sacramento, by virtue of the fact that our #1 option is not a ball-dominant wing, or a "stretch four." DeMarcus Cousins can do something for Kevin Martin that Kevin Love, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook could not: get him easy baskets.
Half? I made four claims about him being "not bottom three" (ppg, rpg, fta, 3pt%), and per-36 only refutes one of them.
HighFlyingMonkey
Starter
Fluctuations do not disprove a trend. Its going to take more than one year of whatever "upward trending" numbers you are seeing to show Martin isn't on the downswing
I'm more inclined to consider twenty percent of the player's career to be the "fluctuation."
HighFlyingMonkey
Starter
And which 20 percent would that be?
Not the last twenty percent, if that's what you were getting at?
HighFlyingMonkey
Starter
I honestly have no idea what 20% you are talking about.
He's been in decline since his last year in Houston. Thats a 3 year downward trend in a 10 year career for a 31 year old guard who relies on quickness to get to the free throw line. You want to call the most recent 30% of his career a fluctuation its your prerogative, but to borrow from your own diction, thats an "unusual" definition of fluctuation.
I would say that he had a two-year downward fluctuation, not three, and now he's back to numbers more in line with his career production. I also would disagree with the claims that he relies on quickness to get to the free throw line, as he has never impressed me as being that quick. Either way, I'd presume that the quality of looks he'd receive as a benefit of playing with a dominant big like Cousins would be remarkably different from the quality of looks he got from a stretch 4 like Love, or even a dominant wing like Durant.
HighFlyingMonkey
Starter
His numbers last year were not "in-line" with his career production. They were similar two years before that than to his peak years, and were mostly even worse.
It was always his quickness that gave him a slight edge in drawing contact. He hasn't been able to get to the free throw line as well as he used to. From just an anecdotal perspective, he looked slower and less athletic last year than a prime Martin would usually have looked at.
And unless he significantly changes his style of play, he's going to get the same kind of looks he got in Minnesota. Spot-up shots, cuts, and curls. Thats Martin's game, whether he's next to Rubio/Love or Gay/Cousins.
I don't like to compare stats with small sample sizes but I'm mainly just going off the eye test right now. Last year McLemore looked terrible in summer league but showed signs of promise by having 1 or 2 real nice games. Then he went into preseason and looked like a legit player. The regular season came around and he was basically a joke. Literally one of the worst starters I've ever seen. Summer league comes around this year and I'm thinking he's going to take a step forward and he looks very similar to last year where he has some really bad games and then a couple of good ones. So far during preseason he looks serviceable but he's just not passing the eye test for me. The one area where he looks improved has been his ability to drive into the lane. Once he gets into the lane he whiffs so bad on layups it's unbelievable.
Stauskas on the other hand looks very consistent. The game seems to come much easier for him. He's smoother, more fluid and can hit shots with a hand in his face. He already looks like a better ball handler and he looks like he has a higher basketball IQ than McLemore. He just looks in control where McLemore looks either out of control or like he doesn't know what he's doing.
I wouldn't trade Stauskas because he looks like he has a decent chance of turning into a serviceable player. I personally don't see it in McLemore. I may be wrong but I'd get rid of him while hopefully someone out there thinks he still has a chance. At least it gets rid of a below average player on the team. My whole point with Kevin Martin was to replace a below average player with a slightly above average player if you can. I don't really like Martin's game but it's other worldly compared to Ben's.
The same kind of looks are not necessarily the same quality of looks. A great center like Cousins draws attention from different areas of the floor than even an elite wing like Durant does, which means that those spot-ups and cuts and curls are going to be just a little more open than they were in Oklahoma City. A small fraction of a second, that makes the difference between a block or a deflection and an And-1. And Love, as great as he has been statistically, wasn't drawing double-teams out to twenty-two feet. Just look at Rudy Gay: the numbers indicate that he shot, roughly, the same percentage of layups and short-range (3-10ft) shots in Sacramento that he did in Toronto. And yet, the percentages were way higher in Sacramento. Going by his TS% and eFG% and PER, his numbers were all on the "decline," too, and there doesn't seem to be a plethora of people lining up to throw him in the trash. That's what playing with a great big can do for you.
HighFlyingMonkey
Starter
Gay DID change his style of play. The percentage of his shots that were long twos, the least efficient area of the floor (16-23 feet), was the lowest of his career. Instead, he used those possessions to attack the rim and get to the line; his free throw rate was the highest it has ever been in his career. Martin isn't going to reinvent himself at this stage of his career.
But that is besides the point. The main point is that Martin's been in decline for these past three years and at 31 years old that is not someone it is wise to invest $21 million over three years in.
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