Future of Willie Cauley-Stein?

[ESP47]

Really! So you think that Willie is an inefficient offensive player. Well, lets compare him with the man he replaced. Here are Cousins eFG% for his first three years in the league. 43.2% - 44.9% - 46.7%. He did pull it up to 49.6% in his 4th year, which is respectable for a center in the league. So lets take a look at inefficient Willie's first three years in the league. 56.3% - 53.0% - 50.4%. Hmmm, what's wrong with this picture? What the! It looks like Willie is far more efficient than Cousins was his first three years.

I'm wondering what your definition of inefficient is, or at least how someone decided that Willie and Nurkic are the least efficient centers. What are the numbers their using. Willie's offensive efficiency is certainly not at the bottom of the league. What is your reference please?

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/fieldGoalPct/position/centers

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/caulewi01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01.html

The first link shows you Willie's FG% compared to the other players that ESPN considers centers around the league (take note that many of the guys below him are much better scoring centers that also shoot 3 pointers and get to the line so their overall efficiency will be higher than Willie's because he doesn't do either of those things).

The next two links, take a look at their TS% which takes into account FG, FT and 3PT percentages.

Now first of all, Demarcus isn't exactly the gold standard that I would use when talking about shooting percentages. He's been notoriously inefficient but if you look at his TS%, they've been steadily going up every year he's been in the league. Now take a look at WCS, they've been steadily going down. That is the direct effect of him being less of the rim runner he was under Karl and more of the 1 on 1/elbow jumper player he's been under Joerger.

If you want to compare the two, Cousins per36 scoring numbers have always been up in the 20s outside of his rookie year. WCSs per36 numbers have gone up every year to a max of 16ppg this year but his efficiency has gone down because of it. Cousins scoring and efficiency went up while Willie's scoring went up and efficiency went down. That's because Willie is not a good offensive player and Cousins naturally is. He's doing things on the court that he isn't very good at and the numbers are showing the direct effect. If he was shooting 3 pointers at a decent clip and getting to the line a good amount, you could live with him shooting 50% from the field, but he does neither so he needs to be shooting in the high 50's and that's on the coach to get him in efficient spots on the court and away from the elbow.

 

[gunks]

You know who else used to fall down under the basket at times. Huh? Some worthless center named Cousins!!!!!!!!!!! I didn't hear anyone mentioning that when it happened. I didn't hear any criticism then...

Um.... all people did was criticize Cuz.

Mostly his attitude, but I remember a lot of people would knock him for throwing up junk in the paint. Of course, Cuz was such a monster that he'd grab his own misses and more often than not put them back up or go to the line. Sorry, I just couldn't read "Cousins" and "I didn't hear any criticism" in the same post and not reply!

Anyways, keep fighting the good fight, Baja! Seems like you're one of the few in Trill's corner. As someone who has been critical of him, I can admit that sometimes it goes a little far.

Personally, I think he's a bit soft. But when I look at him as a 3rd big, instead of a failed version of a Capella type super roleplayer, I still see a future for WCS on the team.

I think most of us just want more consistency from him. If Trill can give us that, I think he'll convert a lot of us doubters! I'm still rooting for him (between the harsh posts - haha).

 

[kingsboi]

He stated that he wasn't efficient, OK! I just showed that he was. Now you want to argue about why. Something like 97% of Jordan's baskets are assisted. While Willie gets a lot of assisted baskets, it's not nearly as many as Jordan. Hell, Jordan's eFG% is around 68%.

I'd imagine the majority of Willie's shots are assisted rather than not, he may not be in the 60% percentile but in his own mind it seems he thinks he can do more than he is capable

 

[ppine]

You know who else used to fall down under the basket at times. Huh? Some worthless center named Cousins!!!!!!!!!!! I didn't hear anyone mentioning that when it happened. I didn't hear any criticism then...

The last time Cousins fell down he couldn't play for 6 months. He may not have a long career in the NBA. He runs like he is in pain.

 

[Nokidding]

What worries me about WCS is that he has not been motivated that much while making 3-4mil if he does break out and gets a massive pay day I just personally don't see him as the type to stayed motivated for to long. Aside from like Hassan Whiteside in recent memory (he's slipped a bit after his contract extension as well) has there been many players with limited motivation/desire/questionable motors (barring injury) that after signing a massive deal become beasts?

A guy like Wiggins (more talented than WCS imo) currently comes to mind as a poster child, another example would be like a Solomon Hill who had a brief good stretch where he played inspired basketball for Indy than got a 13mil a year and was a disaster last two seasons (one injured).

 

[DesertFox]

Willie is working hard on offensive moves, when he should be getting over his fear of rebounding and protecting the rim.

He's already admitted to bring afraid of hurting his hand again, so until he gets over that he will always be mediocre.

 

[bajaden]

Um.... all people did was criticize Cuz.

Mostly his attitude, but I remember a lot of people would knock him for throwing up junk in the paint. Of course, Cuz was such a monster that he'd grab his own misses and more often than not put them back up or go to the line. Sorry, I just couldn't read "Cousins" and "I didn't hear any criticism" in the same post and not reply!

Anyways, keep fighting the good fight, Baja! Seems like you're one of the few in Trill's corner. As someone who has been critical of him, I can admit that sometimes it goes a little far.

Personally, I think he's a bit soft. But when I look at him as a 3rd big, instead of a failed version of a Capella type super roleplayer, I still see a future for WCS on the team.

I think most of us just want more consistency from him. If Trill can give us that, I think he'll convert a lot of us doubters! I'm still rooting for him (between the harsh posts - haha).

Look, Willie isn't immune from criticism, and your right, there was group of people that were constantly on cuz, but this is more like a fan club in reverse. It's over the top as far as I'm concerned. I have beat the drum that it takes around four years for a big man to emerge in the NBA, especially if basketball wasn't his first sport. Willie didn't start playing the game seriously until his junior year of highschool. That's a freaking fact! Giles started playing basketball when he was around 6 or 7 years old. Who do you think has the advantage there?

I only care about talent, and Willie is a talented player, that started out behind the curve. If someone wants to say that he needs to improve in some areas, I'm fine with that. But to say we need to get rid of him because he doesn't care, or he's incapable, or because he loves art more than basketball, is pure nonsense. Never ever pretend to know what's in a persons mind. Especially when you don't really know them. When you can't interact with them. I would dare say that there are people in your life (not you personally) that your in contact with almost daily, that you have trouble understanding at times. We all do! And yet, we think we know what's in the mind of a player we don't even know.

God knows that I watch far too much college basketball and I've said many times that the the hardest thing to do, is judge a players desire. And yet people on this forum do it all the time. Lack of confidence can easily be misjudged as a lack of desire, as can overthinking instead of just reacting. I think McLemore had all the desire in the world, but lacked confidence in himself. As a result he looked passive on the court at times. By no means am I trying to make excuses for Willie. Criticize away, but be logical and reasonable.

I've also said that this is a big year for Willie, and no, not because it's a contract year, but because it's Willie's 4th year, and he has to show that he's not just a backup center in the league. He needs to step up and become whatever it is he's going to become. If he doesn't, then I'm off his bandwagon and let the chips fall where they may. But what I don't want to see is Willie traded to another team for penny's on the dollar, and have him start putting up 20 and ten every night. I don't want another team to reap the benefits of our labor. It happens all the time.

 

[bajaden]

What worries me about WCS is that he has not been motivated that much while making 3-4mil if he does break out and gets a massive pay day I just personally don't see him as the type to stayed motivated for to long. Aside from like Hassan Whiteside in recent memory (he's slipped a bit after his contract extension as well) has there been many players with limited motivation/desire/questionable motors (barring injury) that after signing a massive deal become beasts?

A guy like Wiggins (more talented than WCS imo) currently comes to mind as a poster child, another example would be like a Solomon Hill who had a brief good stretch where he played inspired basketball for Indy than got a 13mil a year and was a disaster last two seasons (one injured).

It can go both ways, and sometimes it has nothing to do with motivation at all. Sometimes a player happens to be in the right place at the right time and plays on a team that uses his talent perfectly. He then goes into free agency, gets a big contract with another team, that doesn't use him the same way, and he isn't the same player. Each situation is different and has to be judged separately. It's not a one size fits all! I firmly believe that if Willie has a breakout year, it will be because he had a breakout year in the year that most big's have breakout years.

I think sometimes people don't want to do their homework, and I have respect for those that do, even if I don't agree with their conclusions. But I have no respect for people who just throw out claims that are impossible to back up. Kingster stated that Willie doesn't run the floor. I contested that statement, and he comes back with a time when he didn't see Willie running the floor. His word against mine. His interpretation against mine. But he got me interested.

I still have five Kings games on my DVR from last season so I went back and watched a couple of them. Did Willie run the floor every time down the floor. No! But he did run the floor, in my humble opinion every time there was a reason to run the floor. Yes he did jog down the floor at times, but the whole team was jogging down the floor. I never once saw Willie not running the floor on a break, unless there was other circumstances that prevented him from doing so. I also saw Willie being the first man down the floor to no avail at times. My conclusion was that I couldn't make a blanket statement that Willie doesn't run the floor. Difference of opinion.

I could take just about any player on the Kings team and exaggerate cherry picked situations to make him look bad. There isn't a perfect player on the team. I defended the hell out of Cousins, but I never defended his arguing with ref's while the ball was live. That infuriated me, but it didn't make me want to get rid of him. Same with Willie. He's a talented guy, and I want to see that talent emerge for the Kings. This is the year he has to do it. There are no more excuses after this year. Someone once said that after a players 4th year in the league, he's used up all his potential.

 

[Kingster]

Look, Willie isn't immune from criticism, and your right, there was group of people that were constantly on cuz, but this is more like a fan club in reverse. It's over the top as far as I'm concerned. I have beat the drum that it takes around four years for a big man to emerge in the NBA, especially if basketball wasn't his first sport. Willie didn't start playing the game seriously until his junior year of highschool. That's a freaking fact! Giles started playing basketball when he was around 6 or 7 years old. Who do you think has the advantage there?

I only care about talent, and Willie is a talented player, that started out behind the curve. If someone wants to say that he needs to improve in some areas, I'm fine with that. But to say we need to get rid of him because he doesn't care, or he's incapable, or because he loves art more than basketball, is pure nonsense. Never ever pretend to know what's in a persons mind. Especially when you don't really know them. When you can't interact with them. I would dare say that there are people in your life (not you personally) that your in contact with almost daily, that you have trouble understanding at times. We all do! And yet, we think we know what's in the mind of a player we don't even know.

God knows that I watch far too much college basketball and I've said many times that the the hardest thing to do, is judge a players desire. And yet people on this forum do it all the time. Lack of confidence can easily be misjudged as a lack of desire, as can overthinking instead of just reacting. I think McLemore had all the desire in the world, but lacked confidence in himself. As a result he looked passive on the court at times. By no means am I trying to make excuses for Willie. Criticize away, but be logical and reasonable.

I've also said that this is a big year for Willie, and no, not because it's a contract year, but because it's Willie's 4th year, and he has to show that he's not just a backup center in the league. He needs to step up and become whatever it is he's going to become. If he doesn't, then I'm off his bandwagon and let the chips fall where they may. But what I don't want to see is Willie traded to another team for penny's on the dollar, and have him start putting up 20 and ten every night. I don't want another team to reap the benefits of our labor. It happens all the time.

So how many minutes per game do you think he should on average be playing this year? And how should he be utilized? Should it be the same as last year in which he was at the high post in a high post offense, thus getting a lot of touches? Or should it be in an offense in which he isn't the center-piece of the offense? Would you have him be the 1st option, 2nd option, 3rd option, 4th option, or 5th option? In other words, what does his performance warrant in the offensive scheme going forward? My opinion on the matter is that his offensive role should be diminished on this team, as he has given no proof over the last three years that he can be anything other than a bit-player in a good offense.

 

[bajaden]

Willie is working hard on offensive moves, when he should be getting over his fear of rebounding and protecting the rim.

He's already admitted to bring afraid of hurting his hand again, so until he gets over that he will always be mediocre.

Willie has suffered because of that dumb comment. People have taken it literally, and knowing Willie's strange or different way of looking at things, I don't think he mean't it the way it sounded. But maybe I'm cutting him too much slack. Anyway you look at it, he shouldn't have said it. But I've certainly said a few things I wish I could take back. Here's the thing. I could post film of Willie playing football, breaking tackles, getting gang tackled and taking hard hits.

You see where I'm going with this? I see a contradiction. If he's not afraid to get on a football field, where he was considered one of the best wide recievers in highschool in his state, why would he be afraid to get in an bang for a rebound, or block a shot? I can't follow the logic there. I think he hurt his hand, or wrist, whichever it was, and made a dumb statement, and everyone that hates Willie ran to the bank with it. Just my humble opinion.

 

[KingsSelecao]

I think he’s moved before the season.
I don’t think his game will change much.

Inconsistent, weak rebounder, and deluded into thinking he’s a 1st or 2nd Option.

He’s has some value to another team. But, I would surmise he’s way overvalued in Sac.

 

[Kingster]

Let's not be ridiculous and compare WCS's stats to Cousins. Let's compare him to Alex Len, the guy that just got signed for $4.25 mill/year with the Hawks: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lenal01.html

While WCS played an average of 28 minutes a game last year, Len played an average of 20 minutes per game.

In Len's 20 minutes he averaged 8.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.9 blocks. Dividing the stat category into minutes played, Len averages a point every 2.4 minutes played, a rebound every 2.7 minutes played, an assist every 16.7 minutes played, a steal every 50 minutes played, and a block every 22.2 minutes played. His field goal percentage during that 20 minutes was 57%; his effective field goal percentage was 57%. How does WCS compare? https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/caulewi01.html

In WCS's 28 minutes played he averaged 12.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks. Dividing the stat category into minutes played, WCS averages a point every 2.2 minutes played, a rebound every 4.0 minutes played, an assist every 11.7 minutes played, a steal every 25.5 minutes played, a block every 31 minutes played. His field goal percentage during that 28 minutes was 50%, as was his effective field goal percentage.

So if you're looking at per point production, WCS is very slightly above Len in points (a 0.2 margin), significantly below Len in rebounding (a 1.3 margin), significantly above Len in assists (a 5.0 margin), about double the efficiency of Len in steals, and significantly below that of Len in blocks (a 8.8 margin). Len's field goal percentage is higher than WCS's by seven percentage points.

In sum, WCS is superior to Len in assists and steals. Len is superior in rebounding, blocks, and field goal percentage. If you want a center who can pass and get steals you take WCS. If you want a center who can rebound and get blocks and be a low but efficient scorer, you take Len. Even without stats, we can believe that WCS if a better perimeter defender, but the stats also confirm that Len is a better interior defender and rebounder. So how much better is WCS than Len? Or is he better at all?

 

[bajaden]

So how many minutes per game do you think he should on average be playing this year? And how should he be utilized? Should it be the same as last year in which he was at the high post in a high post offense, thus getting a lot of touches? Or should it be in an offense in which he isn't the center-piece of the offense? Would you have him be the 1st option, 2nd option, 3rd option, 4th option, or 5th option? In other words, what does his performance warrant in the offensive scheme going forward? My opinion on the matter is that his offensive role should be diminished on this team, as he has given no proof over the last three years that he can be anything other than a bit-player in a good offense.

Well, since you've already made up your mind, I'm not sure your really interested in my opinion. The first thing I would ask is that you have an open mind. I just got done saying that it takes four years on average for a big man to arrive. Your plan is to not even give him a chance to arrive by diminishing his role. Why would he or any player work their butt off during the offseason to improve, if they're not going to be given the chance to show that improvement? If you were my head coach, I would say your not a great motivator.

That said, I think his usage and how he's used should be determined by how he plays. If he shows in the pre-season that he's capable of doing more than in the past, then give him his lead. In other words, I would leave it up to Joerger. Whether anyone likes it or not, Willie improved during the last third of the season. If I'm Joerger, I want to see if that was an abberation, or genuine improvement. If you just took Willie's last ten games of the season, where he was pretty much given a green light, he averaged 15.4 ppg and 7.7 rebounds a game. If you threw out the first of those ten games, where he only played a few minutes and scored 2 pt's, he would have averaged 16.8 ppg.

Now I realize that its only a small sampling, but with young players, that's what your looking for. It could be significant. If it's Vince Carter, it's meaningless, but if it's a young developing player, you hope it's the light going on. When Willie was given his lead at the end of the year, he responded with some very good games.

Much has been made of Willie's rebounding, and I think most of that criticism is based on expectations rather than reality. But to be fair, I think we have all seen games where Willie looked dominating in the rebounding dept, and then non-existent in others. And that's what frustrates us. When you see a player do it, you wonder why he doesn't do it all the time. I wish I had the answer to that, but I don't. That said, his rebounding numbers aren't that terrible when compared to others around the league. Only when compared to what we think they should be. As I stated previously, only 11 players in the NBA pulled down double digit rebounds last season.

One of the main areas where Willie is criticized is on the defensive side, and I think that's where most of the criticism is way over the top. If you don't know the defensive scheme the team is running, its easy to put the blame on the wrong culprit. So first lets take a look at the defensive rating of the kings players.

Randolph: 111
Mason: 112
Skal: 111
Jackson: 114
Heild: 111
Fox: 113
Carter: 110
Bogdanovic: 113
Temple: 112
Sampson: 108
Koufos: 108
Willie: 108

Soooo, Willie, who for some reason gets most of the blame for being a bad defender is tied with Koufos and Sampson for the best defensive rating on the team. A bit unfair me thinks. If you want to say he needs to improve, I'll agree, but to blame him for the teams poor defense is ridiculous. Yes he makes mistakes at times, but he's still one of, if not the best defender on the team. Most of you just don't like how he's being used defensively. You want more blocked shots? Then talk Joerger into sticking him into the low post and letting him defend the basket. That's what he did his first year at Kentucky and he almost lead college in blocked shots.

The next year Calipari realized how valuable Willie was defending out on the perimeter, and his numbers at rebounding and blocking shots went down. Sometimes you have to pick your poison. Willie does lose focus ball watching at times, and lets his man stray a little too far, but when he is focused he's a very good defender, and very good on the ball defender. His mistakes are usually off the ball, and he's not alone in that dept.

Willie was the third best rebounder on the team after Koufos (no surprise, that's what he does) and Randolph, whose usage rate was far too high I might add. Using per 36 numbers, which is the only fair way to do it, Koufos came in at 12.2 rpg, Randolph at 9.5 rpg, and Willie at 9.0 rpg. Surprisingly Sampson came in at number 4 at 8.2 rpg. Well, maybe it's not a surprise. After those four, there's a huge dropoff. So the Kings need to improve their rebounding overall, and Willie needs to bring his rebounding up another notch.

Willie's usage rate was 21.8% which was 5th on the team. He was almost tied by Skal who came in at 21.1%. As pointed out earlier, Randolph led the charge at 27.6% followed by Heild at 24.3%, Fox at 23.4%, and Mason at 22.6%. Based on those numbers, I don't think it would be wise to diminish Willie's role. If anything, based on other numbers, including shooting percentage, I think he usage should be increased a little.

Willie struggled when first moved into the high post, but his passing from there improved dramatically as the year went on. My problem with him from there was that he was constantly left open, and didn't take the shot, which allowed his man to cheat down into the post which crowded the lane. He can make that 16 footer and he needs to take it to keep teams honest. I know some won't want to hear this, but Willie has been working hard on his three pt shot, and if he can eventually shoot even 35% from there, it will really open up the floor for fox and Bog's. That was not a prediction, but a hope....

I know I haven't exactly answered your question, but it's almost impossible to answer without more information. I'm all about hoping players get better, and trusting that they will. Of course not all of them will. Donte Greene anyone? Sometimes it takes longer, like with Whiteside. He needed a serious wake up call. Ironically, there are some that criticize the Kings for giving up on Whiteside too soon. I'm not one of them, but at the same time, I did recognize the talent he had. While with the Kings, I never saw one iota of improvement from Whiteside. Talent without the work equals out of the league.

Bottom line is, I'm still high on Willie, but it's put up or shut up time. I think he can be far more than some on this forum think, and if I'm right, how is that a bad thing? Apparently both McCollum and Durant agree with me. At least for now.

 

[upinsmoke]

Found this cool WCS mix on the tube. He really is a supreme athlete that still has room to improve his overall game with more seasoning. Imo.

 

[SLAB]

I 100% fear Willie going headcase space cadet and mentally checking out the second he signs a big contract extension.

 

[bajaden]

Let's not be ridiculous and compare WCS's stats to Cousins. Let's compare him to Alex Len, the guy that just got signed for $4.25 mill/year with the Hawks: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lenal01.html

While WCS played an average of 28 minutes a game last year, Len played an average of 20 minutes per game.

In Len's 20 minutes he averaged 8.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.9 blocks. Dividing the stat category into minutes played, Len averages a point every 2.4 minutes played, a rebound every 2.7 minutes played, an assist every 16.7 minutes played, a steal every 50 minutes played, and a block every 22.2 minutes played. His field goal percentage during that 20 minutes was 57%; his effective field goal percentage was 57%. How does WCS compare? https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/caulewi01.html

In WCS's 28 minutes played he averaged 12.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks. Dividing the stat category into minutes played, WCS averages a point every 2.2 minutes played, a rebound every 4.0 minutes played, an assist every 11.7 minutes played, a steal every 25.5 minutes played, a block every 31 minutes played. His field goal percentage during that 28 minutes was 50%, as was his effective field goal percentage.

So if you're looking at per point production, WCS is very slightly above Len in points (a 0.2 margin), significantly below Len in rebounding (a 1.3 margin), significantly above Len in assists (a 5.0 margin), about double the efficiency of Len in steals, and significantly below that of Len in blocks (a 8.8 margin). Len's field goal percentage is higher than WCS's by seven percentage points.

In sum, WCS is superior to Len in assists and steals. Len is superior in rebounding, blocks, and field goal percentage. If you want a center who can pass and get steals you take WCS. If you want a center who can rebound and get blocks and be a low but efficient scorer, you take Len. Even without stats, we can believe that WCS if a better perimeter defender, but the stats also confirm that Len is a better interior defender and rebounder. So how much better is WCS than Len? Or is he better at all?

Do you really think I was comparing WCS and Cousins as players? Come on, I was simply pointing out that Willie was not inefficient. Not that he was a better player than Cousins. Alex Len? Really? He and Willie are nothing alike. Len is strictly a low post defender. Stick him on the perimeter and he struggles. I wouldn't take Len if you gave him to me. You want Willie to block shots, then talk to Joerger. Put Willie down low and he'll block shots, he did it at Kentucky his first year, but now your best ball stopper on defense is being wasted for a couple of blocked shots a game.

A better comparison, which I've made in the past is Myles Turner. Similar player athletically and he came into the league at the same time with similar expectations. He's also going into his 4th season. Offensively Willie put up 12.8 ppg while Turner put up 12.7 ppg. They both averaged around 28 mpg. Willie averaged 7.0 rpg, while Turner averaged 6.4 rpg. Willie 0.9 bpg, Turner 1.8 bpg. Willie 1.1 steals per game, Turner 0.6 steals per game. Willie 2.4 apg, Turner 1.3 apg. Willie had a little better shooting percentage, but then Turner took a significant number of three's, which would bring his overall average down.

Turner's defensive rating was a little better at 106 to Willie's 108. All in all, both players had areas that they were superior in. But the truth is, I don't really care about comparisons. I care about the overall team, and how each player fits, and contributes to winning. If the Kings win a championship with Willie scoring 10 pts and blocking 4 shots a game while grabbing 10 boards, I'm OK with that. By the same token, if we win and Willie is scoring 22 pts, blocking 1 shot a game and grabbing 7 boards, I'm just fine with that as well. But the waters are a little muddy at the moment and the pieces are still being put together.

 

[VF21]

I 100% fear Willie going headcase space cadet and mentally checking out the second he signs a big contract extension.

Oh please. This is just getting ridiculous. Some of you make it sound like WCS is going down the Rodman crazy path at full throttle. Does he need to work on his game? Yup. Is he working on his game? Yup. Has Vlade put people around each other that will help elevate their games? Yup.

Let's see how Willie does this season. I strongly suspect people are going to be pleasantly surprised. I just hope those who are so quick to criticize and condemn right now will be equally as quick to commend and praise when he does take his game to the next level.

 

[Kingster]

Well, since you've already made up your mind, I'm not sure your really interested in my opinion. The first thing I would ask is that you have an open mind. I just got done saying that it takes four years on average for a big man to arrive. Your plan is to not even give him a chance to arrive by diminishing his role. Why would he or any player work their butt off during the offseason to improve, if they're not going to be given the chance to show that improvement? If you were my head coach, I would say your not a great motivator.

That said, I think his usage and how he's used should be determined by how he plays. If he shows in the pre-season that he's capable of doing more than in the past, then give him his lead. In other words, I would leave it up to Joerger. Whether anyone likes it or not, Willie improved during the last third of the season. If I'm Joerger, I want to see if that was an abberation, or genuine improvement. If you just took Willie's last ten games of the season, where he was pretty much given a green light, he averaged 15.4 ppg and 7.7 rebounds a game. If you threw out the first of those ten games, where he only played a few minutes and scored 2 pt's, he would have averaged 16.8 ppg.

Now I realize that its only a small sampling, but with young players, that's what your looking for. It could be significant. If it's Vince Carter, it's meaningless, but if it's a young developing player, you hope it's the light going on. When Willie was given his lead at the end of the year, he responded with some very good games.

Much has been made of Willie's rebounding, and I think most of that criticism is based on expectations rather than reality. But to be fair, I think we have all seen games where Willie looked dominating in the rebounding dept, and then non-existent in others. And that's what frustrates us. When you see a player do it, you wonder why he doesn't do it all the time. I wish I had the answer to that, but I don't. That said, his rebounding numbers aren't that terrible when compared to others around the league. Only when compared to what we think they should be. As I stated previously, only 11 players in the NBA pulled down double digit rebounds last season.

One of the main areas where Willie is criticized is on the defensive side, and I think that's where most of the criticism is way over the top. If you don't know the defensive scheme the team is running, its easy to put the blame on the wrong culprit. So first lets take a look at the defensive rating of the kings players.

Randolph: 111
Mason: 112
Skal: 111
Jackson: 114
Heild: 111
Fox: 113
Carter: 110
Bogdanovic: 113
Temple: 112
Sampson: 108
Koufos: 108
Willie: 108

Soooo, Willie, who for some reason gets most of the blame for being a bad defender is tied with Koufos and Sampson for the best defensive rating on the team. A bit unfair me thinks. If you want to say he needs to improve, I'll agree, but to blame him for the teams poor defense is ridiculous. Yes he makes mistakes at times, but he's still one of, if not the best defender on the team. Most of you just don't like how he's being used defensively. You want more blocked shots? Then talk Joerger into sticking him into the low post and letting him defend the basket. That's what he did his first year at Kentucky and he almost lead college in blocked shots.

The next year Calipari realized how valuable Willie was defending out on the perimeter, and his numbers at rebounding and blocking shots went down. Sometimes you have to pick your poison. Willie does lose focus ball watching at times, and lets his man stray a little too far, but when he is focused he's a very good defender, and very good on the ball defender. His mistakes are usually off the ball, and he's not alone in that dept.

Willie was the third best rebounder on the team after Koufos (no surprise, that's what he does) and Randolph, whose usage rate was far too high I might add. Using per 36 numbers, which is the only fair way to do it, Koufos came in at 12.2 rpg, Randolph at 9.5 rpg, and Willie at 9.0 rpg. Surprisingly Sampson came in at number 4 at 8.2 rpg. Well, maybe it's not a surprise. After those four, there's a huge dropoff. So the Kings need to improve their rebounding overall, and Willie needs to bring his rebounding up another notch.

Willie's usage rate was 21.8% which was 5th on the team. He was almost tied by Skal who came in at 21.1%. As pointed out earlier, Randolph led the charge at 27.6% followed by Heild at 24.3%, Fox at 23.4%, and Mason at 22.6%. Based on those numbers, I don't think it would be wise to diminish Willie's role. If anything, based on other numbers, including shooting percentage, I think he usage should be increased a little.

Willie struggled when first moved into the high post, but his passing from there improved dramatically as the year went on. My problem with him from there was that he was constantly left open, and didn't take the shot, which allowed his man to cheat down into the post which crowded the lane. He can make that 16 footer and he needs to take it to keep teams honest. I know some won't want to hear this, but Willie has been working hard on his three pt shot, and if he can eventually shoot even 35% from there, it will really open up the floor for fox and Bog's. That was not a prediction, but a hope....

I know I haven't exactly answered your question, but it's almost impossible to answer without more information. I'm all about hoping players get better, and trusting that they will. Of course not all of them will. Donte Greene anyone? Sometimes it takes longer, like with Whiteside. He needed a serious wake up call. Ironically, there are some that criticize the Kings for giving up on Whiteside too soon. I'm not one of them, but at the same time, I did recognize the talent he had. While with the Kings, I never saw one iota of improvement from Whiteside. Talent without the work equals out of the league.

Bottom line is, I'm still high on Willie, but it's put up or shut up time. I think he can be far more than some on this forum think, and if I'm right, how is that a bad thing? Apparently both McCollum and Durant agree with me. At least for now.

I certainly agree with you on the bolded part. He's in Year 3 and he's hesitating on 17-18 footers? What's up with that? If he can't hit that shot on a regular basis, forget about it. As far as the rebounding issue, he is what is - a rebound every 4 minutes kind of guy, not every 3 minutes, as was asserted by many on this board when he was drafted.

Look, I think we have to agree on one thing: In thinking about the design of his offense for next year, Joerger has to start somewhere. He can't say to himself, well, I'm going to see how WCS does and go from there. Does in what? is the question. How WCS does in an offense in which he is not a central player? Or, how does he do in an offense like last year in which he is central? Is Joerger's offensive design going to showcase WCS like last year, or is WCS's offensive role going to be more peripheral to Fox, Buddy, Bogs, Giles and Co? Last year was supposed to be all about seeing what the young guys could (or could not) do. In particular, they wanted to see what WCS did in his 3rd year in the high post offense, hence showcasing and testing his skill as an offensive player. This year is supposed to be all about winning. Does assigning WCS a primary role in the offense help Joerger to win next year? I will be flabbergasted if Joerger gives WCS the same central role in the offense as last year, as his job security would be dependent upon the wishful notion that WCS is going to take a big leap in performance this coming year. And if Joerger does in fact come to the determination that WCS isn't going to have a role in central casting, then what? How does the medicine go down for WCS?

 

[bajaden]

I'd imagine the majority of Willie's shots are assisted rather than not, he may not be in the 60% percentile but in his own mind it seems he thinks he can do more than he is capable

Well, I think the Majority of most players like Willie shots are assisted. Especially when their young and still learning their craft. What you hope for is that they expand their game over time. But to be fair I went and looked up Jordan's assisted percentages, and I exaggerated a bit. 70.2% of Jordan's shots are assisted. 67.8% of Willie's shots are assisted. So it's close, but the main difference if you will, is that Jordan's assisted shot numbers have been fairly consistent, meaning he hasn't done much in the way of learning how to create his own shot. Not saying that makes him a bad player, just a somewhat one dimensional player, but a dam good one.

By the way, Capela has a higher percentage than both with 81.9% of his shots being assisted.

 

[kingsboi]

Well, I think the Majority of most players like Willie shots are assisted. Especially when their young and still learning their craft. What you hope for is that they expand their game over time. But to be fair I went and looked up Jordan's assisted percentages, and I exaggerated a bit. 70.2% of Jordan's shots are assisted. 67.8% of Willie's shots are assisted. So it's close, but the main difference if you will, is that Jordan's assisted shot numbers have been fairly consistent, meaning he hasn't done much in the way of learning how to create his own shot. Not saying that makes him a bad player, just a somewhat one dimensional player, but a dam good one.

By the way, Capela has a higher percentage than both with 81.9% of his shots being assisted.

Difference between Jordan & Capela are they understand their roles and capabilities. Willie is trying to turn himself into KAT or whatever player he wants to mimic and it just doesn't look very coordinated or promising. He may as well follow down the path Nerlens Noel has at this rate.

 

[SLAB]

Oh please. This is just getting ridiculous. Some of you make it sound like WCS is going down the Rodman crazy path at full throttle. Does he need to work on his game? Yup. Is he working on his game? Yup. Has Vlade put people around each other that will help elevate their games? Yup.

Let's see how Willie does this season. I strongly suspect people are going to be pleasantly surprised. I just hope those who are so quick to criticize and condemn right now will be equally as quick to commend and praise when he does take his game to the next level.

Not Rodman crazy, like his mind will wander further off to art and traveling and clothing design instead of basketball. His head seems to be wandering in the clouds every other game as it is now... maybe getting paid would help focus him, maybe it won't. Idk.

 

[Pizzaguy93]

Found this cool WCS mix on the tube. He really is a supreme athlete that still has room to improve his overall game with more seasoning. Imo.

Block just after the 4:00 mark should answer the Len question...

A good amount of these were recovery moves, or ones where Willie was defending a player outside of the key and had to move back toward the basket. If he had a more traditional defensive big man role, his block numbers would go up imo. However, his versatility is what gives him the dynamic potential that he has. The better the team gets, the better WCS.

Had some nice highlights against Golden State. Comments from durant make me think GS could be looking at him to replace McGee and now Boogie. Would fit so nicely with that team

 

[bajaden]

I certainly agree with you on the bolded part. He's in Year 3 and he's hesitating on 17-18 footers? What's up with that? If he can't hit that shot on a regular basis, forget about it. As far as the rebounding issue, he is what is - a rebound every 4 minutes kind of guy, not every 3 minutes, as was asserted by many on this board when he was drafted.

Look, I think we have to agree on one thing: In thinking about the design of his offense for next year, Joerger has to start somewhere. He can't say to himself, well, I'm going to see how WCS does and go from there. Does in what? is the question. How WCS does in an offense in which he is not a central player? Or, how does he do in an offense like last year in which he is central? Is Joerger's offensive design going to showcase WCS like last year, or is WCS's offensive role going to be more peripheral to Fox, Buddy, Bogs, Giles and Co? Last year was supposed to be all about seeing what the young guys could (or could not) do. In particular, they wanted to see what WCS did in his 3rd year in the high post offense, hence showcasing and testing his skill as an offensive player. This year is supposed to be all about winning. Does assigning WCS a primary role in the offense help Joerger to win next year? I will be flabbergasted if Joerger gives WCS the same central role in the offense as last year, as his job security would be dependent upon the wishful notion that WCS is going to take a big leap in performance this coming year. And if Joerger does in fact come to the determination that WCS isn't going to have a role in central casting, then what? How does the medicine go down for WCS?

Well if it's determined by the Kings that Willie's role is different than the one he thinks he should be filling, then he has to bend to the will of the team, and take up that challenge. If he balks at that idea, then you find him a new home. The one thing I would disagree with is that he was a central player. He was certainly one of the top five usage players on the team, but he was the fifth in usage. I haven't really delved into where he was on the offensive option chart, but I suspect he fell somewhere between 3rd and 4th. At least for most of the year. for the last 25 or 30 games, I would guess he was the 2nd or 3rd option. Just a guess though since I haven't looked up the numbers. Fair to say that when he was on the floor, Randolph was easily the 1st option.

Personally I always saw Willie as more than just a utility or specialized player. There's certainly nothing wrong with being that, but I think he can be more. I could be wrong. The one thing I don't worry about is this idea that he'll get a nice contact and then disappear. Willie has improved every year and that doesn't happen without putting in the work. Yes, Willie has put out video's showing him working out, but if you listen to comments by some of his teammates, it's easy to conclude that its not just hype being put out by him.

When Giles was asked who was the hardest player to guard in practice, he quickly said Willie, who he also said was the strongest player on the team as well. Doug Christie has mentioned how hard Willie works on his game, and that if he could ever bring what he does in practice to a real game, people would be shocked. I think part of Willie's problem, and it's a common problem with some young players, is believing in yourself. I also think that Willie gets into his head too much at times during a game. Basketball has to be instinctive if your going to be great. That takes time for some players, and for some others, it never happens.

 

[upinsmoke]

The details of Capela's contract are incentive based on playoff advancement, defensive rebs, and FT pct. This should be considered the max for a player like WCS essentially 80M/5

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2018/07/2...ent-defensive-rebounding-free-throw-shooting/

 

[KingSnake]

I'd imagine the majority of Willie's shots are assisted rather than not, he may not be in the 60% percentile but in his own mind it seems he thinks he can do more than he is capable

I agree that Willie's most effective shooting is off assists.

If you were to rewatch the first home game (last year) with the Lakers, he had six or seven dunks, all off passes from Bogdonovich (in a rare blowout win).

Strangely, this did not lead to a future focus on that aspect of his/their game.

Instead, he was asked to create his own shot too much and always seemed off balance by the time he finally drove into the paint, sometimes shooting as he was falling down.

Very little team floor talk (examples: "Got help if you need it"/"Here's your help").

Poor coaching, imho.

With this team, he may not see the ball enough to prove his worth.

 

[jcassio]

Block just after the 4:00 mark should answer the Len question...

A good amount of these were recovery moves, or ones where Willie was defending a player outside of the key and had to move back toward the basket. If he had a more traditional defensive big man role, his block numbers would go up imo. However, his versatility is what gives him the dynamic potential that he has. The better the team gets, the better WCS.

Had some nice highlights against Golden State. Comments from durant make me think GS could be looking at him to replace McGee and now Boogie. Would fit so nicely with that team

He's "springy," that's all. Not really any good otherwise.

 

[gunks]

Look, Willie isn't immune from criticism, and your right, there was group of people that were constantly on cuz, but this is more like a fan club in reverse. It's over the top as far as I'm concerned. I have beat the drum that it takes around four years for a big man to emerge in the NBA, especially if basketball wasn't his first sport. Willie didn't start playing the game seriously until his junior year of highschool. That's a freaking fact! Giles started playing basketball when he was around 6 or 7 years old. Who do you think has the advantage there?

I only care about talent, and Willie is a talented player, that started out behind the curve. If someone wants to say that he needs to improve in some areas, I'm fine with that. But to say we need to get rid of him because he doesn't care, or he's incapable, or because he loves art more than basketball, is pure nonsense. Never ever pretend to know what's in a persons mind. Especially when you don't really know them. When you can't interact with them. I would dare say that there are people in your life (not you personally) that your in contact with almost daily, that you have trouble understanding at times. We all do! And yet, we think we know what's in the mind of a player we don't even know.

God knows that I watch far too much college basketball and I've said many times that the the hardest thing to do, is judge a players desire. And yet people on this forum do it all the time. Lack of confidence can easily be misjudged as a lack of desire, as can overthinking instead of just reacting. I think McLemore had all the desire in the world, but lacked confidence in himself. As a result he looked passive on the court at times. By no means am I trying to make excuses for Willie. Criticize away, but be logical and reasonable.

I've also said that this is a big year for Willie, and no, not because it's a contract year, but because it's Willie's 4th year, and he has to show that he's not just a backup center in the league. He needs to step up and become whatever it is he's going to become. If he doesn't, then I'm off his bandwagon and let the chips fall where they may. But what I don't want to see is Willie traded to another team for penny's on the dollar, and have him start putting up 20 and ten every night. I don't want another team to reap the benefits of our labor. It happens all the time.

Can't argue with this logic!

Like I said, while I've been critical of him, that doesn't mean I'm not rooting for him. If he comes out next year and starts beasting, I'll be super pumped!

 

[Pizzaguy93]

He's "springy," that's all. Not really any good otherwise.

I’ll take a “springy” 7 footer with lateral quickness any day of the week. He may never be an all-star or have stats for all defensive or whatever, but we would be stupid to write off what he brings defensively, and could bring offensively

 

[mac]

We'll be midway through the season, he won't be any different and the same person/people that have been hyping him and defending him for 3 years will still be doing so. The guy refuses to put in the work to give the team what it needs from him most, and is far more interested trying to be Porzingis with half the talent. We've seen what he can do and can be when he wants to, but he only bothers trying every 7 games. That's not a matter of a player needing time to develop, that's just a lazy player who is not interested in giving his all. We don't need such players. Why is it that every other good center in the league never has problems rebounding, but for Willie it's always some lame excuse like he has to guard the perimeter, or he's boxing out for someone else to grab the board etc?

Want to be open minded? How about being open minded to the fact that your talent evaluation is bad year after year and the player just isn't any good?

 

[VF21]

We'll be midway through the season, he won't be any different and the same person/people that have been hyping him and defending him for 3 years will still be doing so. The guy refuses to put in the work to give the team what it needs from him most, and is far more interested trying to be Porzingis with half the talent. We've seen what he can do and can be when he wants to, but he only bothers trying every 7 games. That's not a matter of a player needing time to develop, that's just a lazy player who is not interested in giving his all. We don't need such players. Why is it that every other good center in the league never has problems rebounding, but for Willie it's always some lame excuse like he has to guard the perimeter, or he's boxing out for someone else to grab the board etc?

Want to be open minded? How about being open minded to the fact that your talent evaluation is bad year after year and the player just isn't any good?

How about being open minded to what's been posted/tweeted about his work this off-season before you make pronouncements like that?