Fox or Haliburton?

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#92
You can never predict injuries. Maybe could say Boogie was more prone because of his size, but it's likely he would have adapted with how the league shifted and lost weight like most of the beefy bois have in the last 5 years.

What we can analyze is what actually happened. And he bungled that trade every which way possible.
No, in the end he really didn't. Buddy is still playing, Cuz is riding the pine on 10 days ATM. Facts. That matters considering the alternative was maxing the guy out.

And also, his value was obviously not what some would think it would be when he was traded. He's healthy right now. Can still produce. And teams don't want him for more than 10 days at a time. Speaks volumes. Vlade would like his apologies now. lol.
 
#93
This is good work. Unfortunately other teams see this also. The time to trade Fox would have been after summer league when you felt confident about Mitchell. Otherwise, if you are unwilling to do so, you should have traded down from the spot and picked up some additional picks.
Not saying you're wrong, but Fox is currently averaging the following (per 36 min) from 12/1-1/9:

.564 TS% / .486 FG% / .217 3PT% / .779 FT% / 24.3 PPG / 4.0 RPG / 5.0 APG / 1.4 SPG / 0.4 BPG / 2.4 TOPG

If he continues to put this type of stat line up for another month (trade deadline is 2/10), we may have a suitor or two willing to pay up for him.

I've said it in another thread, but we'd likely be in a better position to trade Fox in the offseason when cap space is more flexible, roster spots are open, and the lottery has been set. With Fox improving his play as of late and Fox & Haliburton posting stellar stats while on the floor with each other from 12/1-1/9, I wouldn't be opposed to giving those two the rest of the season to see if we have a potent young backcourt going forward (let the sample size build across the different guard combinations) or, at the very least, to boost Fox's trade value up again (hopefully).
 
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#94
Not saying you're wrong, but Fox is currently averaging the following (per 36 min) from 12/1-1/9:

.564 TS% / .486 FG% / .217 3PT% / .779 FT% / 24.3 PPG / 4.0 RPG / 5.0 APG / 1.4 SPG / 0.4 BPG / 2.4 TOPG

If he continues to put this type of stat line up for another month (trade deadline is 2/10), we may have a suitor or two willing to pay up for him.

I've said it in another thread, but we'd likely be in a better position to trade Fox in the offseason when cap space is more flexible, roster spots are open, and the lottery has been set. With Fox improving his play as of late and Fox & Haliburton posting stellar stats while on the floor with each other from 12/1-1/9, I wouldn't be opposed to giving those two the rest of the season to see if we have a potent young backcourt going forward (let the sample size build across the different guard combinations) or, at the very least, to boost Fox's trade value up again (hopefully).
This.
 
#95
No, in the end he really didn't. Buddy is still playing, Cuz is riding the pine on 10 days ATM. Facts. That matters considering the alternative was maxing the guy out.

And also, his value was obviously not what some would think it would be when he was traded. He's healthy right now. Can still produce. And teams don't want him for more than 10 days at a time. Speaks volumes. Vlade would like his apologies now. lol.
dude, come on. You can't be this disingenuous defending your boy. Boogie now is not the Boogie from 5 years/2 major injuries ago. I shouldn't even need to type that. The trade was horrible.
 

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#96
dude, come on. You can't be this disingenuous defending your boy. Boogie now is not the Boogie from 5 years/2 major injuries ago. I shouldn't even need to type that. The trade was horrible.
Haha, my boy? Go back and read what I said at the time let alone just about every start of free agency and the opinion on the moves made that ended up as bad as I figured. In the end, Vlade won that one, no question. I can admit it, I was wrong and it might have just saved the Kings cap from hell. And Boogie is literally just about free, nobody wants him. That's enough to figure his value was NEVER all that high.
 
#97
dude, come on. You can't be this disingenuous defending your boy. Boogie now is not the Boogie from 5 years/2 major injuries ago. I shouldn't even need to type that. The trade was horrible.
Just for the record, "The Sacramento Kings have agreed to trade DeMarcus Cousins and Omri Casspi to the New Orleans Pelicans in exchange for Tyreke Evans, 2016 first-round draft pick Buddy Hield, Langston Galloway and first- and second-round draft picks this summer"

Boogie was unanimously one of, if not THE best C in the league at the time, to give credit where credit is due.

But I digress... not jumping into this again haha
 
#98
Just for the record, "The Sacramento Kings have agreed to trade DeMarcus Cousins and Omri Casspi to the New Orleans Pelicans in exchange for Tyreke Evans, 2016 first-round draft pick Buddy Hield, Langston Galloway and first- and second-round draft picks this summer"

Boogie was unanimously one of, if not THE best C in the league at the time, to give credit where credit is due.

But I digress... not jumping into this again haha
to be fair to Vlade, Vivek would let me trade earlier when a better deal was possible. I think we can all agree Vivek is the root cause of 3/4’s of the Kings problems.
 
Here is how the On/Off stats shake out for our different PG combinations:

Fox & Haliburton On the Court / Mitchell Off the Court = -3.1 Net Rtg (112.2 Off Rtg & 115.3 Def Rtg over 699 minutes)
Fox & Mitchell On the Court / Haliburton Off the Court = -11.7 Net Rtg (106.3 Off Rtg & 118.0 Def Rtg over 340 minutes)
Haliburton & Mitchell On the Court / Fox Off the Court = +0.9 Net Rtg (103.0 Off Rtg & 102.1 Def Rtg over 350 minutes)

I think we can all admit that Fox had a pretty slow start to the season and starting to get back to normal at the beginning of December. Below is the same on/off stats as I posted above except I have filtered on the date range 12/1-1/9:

Fox & Haliburton On the Court / Mitchell Off the Court = -3.5 Net Rtg (111.9 Off Rtg & 115.4 Def Rtg over 289 minutes)
Fox & Mitchell On the Court / Haliburton Off the Court = -4.5 Net Rtg (113.0 Off Rtg & 117.5 Def Rtg over 104 minutes)
Haliburton & Mitchell On the Court / Fox Off the Court = +2.5 Net Rtg (110.8 Off Rtg & 108.3 Def Rtg over 154 minutes)

In both cases, it indicates that Haliburton/Mitchell is the most impactful young guard pairing we have despite Fox coming back around as of late.

Now this isn't the end all be all as this doesn't cleanly control for the quality of teammates and the quality of the competition, but it's interesting to say the least. Particularly defensively. A Def Rtg of 102.1 would be 1st in the league (GSW is currently at 102.2). Even 108.3 is a significant improvement from where we're at currently (would be 14th in the league).

Here is also their combined per36 min stats from 12/1-1/9 when they are on the court together:

Fox & Haliburton (289 minutes): .650 TS% / .525 FG% / .494 3PT% / .833 FT% / 42.7 PPG / 8.1 RPG / 12.0 APG / 3.2 SPG / 1.5 BPG / 4.1 TOPG
Fox & Mitchell (104 minutes): .558 TS% / .467 FG% / .423 3PT% / .762 FT% / 39.1 PPG / 8.0 RPG / 8.7 APG / 2.1 SPG / 0.7 BPG / 3.8 TOPG
Haliburton & Mitchell (154 minutes): .519 TS% / .441 FG% / .333 3PT% / .769 FT% / 27.8 PPG / 6.8 RPG / 13.6 APG / 0.9 SPG / 0.5 BPG / 3.3 TOPG

Looking at these stats, it seems a bit surprising that Haliburton & Mitchell are the most impactful pairing from an on/off standpoint as they basically have the worst stats in each category with the exception of assists and turnovers. Makes me question the Net Rtg of this group in that they may have been fortunate to play with better teammates or play against weaker competition. I mean when you're backcourt is averaging (per36 min when on the court together)...

De'Aaron Fox (289 minutes): .607 TS% / .517 FG% / .290 3PT% / .800 FT% / 25.5 PPG / 4.0 RPG / 4.2 APG / 1.6 SPG / 0.2 BPG / 2.1 TOPG
Ty. Haliburton (289 minutes): .734 TS% / .539 FG% / .625 3PT% / 1.000 FT% / 17.2 PPG / 4.1 RPG / 7.7 APG / 1.6 SPG / 1.2 BPG / 2.0 TOPG

...it's hard to come to the conclusion that they are the problem. However, advanced impact stats that are supposed to control for quality of teammates and competition tend to suggest Haliburton & Mitchell impact winning more than Fox...

LEBRON
Haliburton =+0.60
Fox = -1.00
Mitchell = -1.08

LA-RAPM
Mitchell = +0.96
Haliburton =+0.28
Fox = -2.33

Unfortunately, I don't have access to these stats by just looking at 12/1-1/9 so hard to see if Fox's improvements are coming through into his impact on the floor via these stats.
We have to take into account that the Haliburton/Mitchell tandem plays the majority of their minutes against backups, which will make their numbers look better than the Haliburton/Fox tandem against starters.
 
We have to take into account that the Haliburton/Mitchell tandem plays the majority of their minutes against backups, which will make their numbers look better than the Haliburton/Fox tandem against starters.
Agreed, which is why I wanted to post the advanced impact stats that attempt to control for such factors.
 
In related news, according to NBA.com, Tyrese Haliburton is shooting a mind-boggling 62% on step-back threes and 64% on all step-back jumpers. Here is a supercut of all of his step-back attempts this season.

(EDIT: extra stat added) As of January 11th, Tyrese Haliburton is shooting 21/34 (61.8%) on threes and 27/42 (64.3%) total on shots officially marked as ste backs by the NBA. This comes with a caveat: the NBA’s shot-type tracking is not completely accurate (see this great article by Owen Phillips) because human scorekeepers have to categorize the shots quickly while the game continues.

Haliburton shoots a more modest 12/38 (31.6%) on threes classified by the NBA as pull-ups. If you look at these attempts (here), there are certainly some that could be classified as stepbacks, and others that could probably be classified as catch & shoot or some other type.

Regardless, aggregating these attempts still paints an impressive picture: Haliburton is shooting 33/72 (45.8%) on pull-up and step-back threes combined, and 52/122 (42.6%) on all other shots types (mostly catch & shoot attempts). In total, he’s shooting 43.8% from distance.

 
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Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
In related news, according to NBA.com, Tyrese Haliburton is shooting a mind-boggling 62% on step-back threes and 64% on all step-back jumpers. Here is a supercut of all of his step-back attempts this season.

(EDIT: extra stat added) As of January 11th, Tyrese Haliburton is shooting 21/34 (61.8%) on threes and 27/42 (64.3%) total on shots officially marked as ste backs by the NBA.
That's pretty eye-opening. A 60% three (1.8 points per shot) is a must-take shot. In the halfcourt, the likelihood that you're going to get a better shot than that if you pass it up is basically zero. He's taking fewer than one stepback three per game, but at that percentage, you have to find a way to take a LOT more until you figure out whether that percentage is real. Hali should be strongly encouraged to take the step-back three whenever it is available regardless of the shot clock until such time as his percentage slumps. Like 5 or even 10 a game. If it becomes clear that he's really more like 35-40% at that shot, then drop the strategy. Otherwise, at 1.8 pps, start gunning, keep gunning.
 
That's pretty eye-opening. A 60% three (1.8 points per shot) is a must-take shot. In the halfcourt, the likelihood that you're going to get a better shot than that if you pass it up is basically zero. He's taking fewer than one stepback three per game, but at that percentage, you have to find a way to take a LOT more until you figure out whether that percentage is real. Hali should be strongly encouraged to take the step-back three whenever it is available regardless of the shot clock until such time as his percentage slumps. Like 5 or even 10 a game. If it becomes clear that he's really more like 35-40% at that shot, then drop the strategy. Otherwise, at 1.8 pps, start gunning, keep gunning.
60% because of Hali's internal clock as to whether it is a good or bad shot. If he increases the volume, the percentage drops.
 
60% because of Hali's internal clock as to whether it is a good or bad shot. If he increases the volume, the percentage drops.
I'd like to find out where that is because he doesn't need to be anywhere near that percentage to be more efficient than an average Kings shot.
 
I'd like to find out where that is because he doesn't need to be anywhere near that percentage to be more efficient than an average Kings shot.
Not sure if I understand your question, but my gut response is wiring. Even if Hali wanted to shoot more, he likely couldn’t pull the trigger. Kinda like Buddy, who even if he wanted to shoot less, he’ll pull the trigger whenever he thinks there is an opening.

Wiring is real. For example, what is the color of the following word: RED.

Notice how your brain processed RED in two different ways? That’s wiring.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
Not sure if I understand your question, but my gut response is wiring. Even if Hali wanted to shoot more, he likely couldn’t pull the trigger. Kinda like Buddy, who even if he wanted to shoot less, he’ll pull the trigger whenever he thinks there is an opening.

Wiring is real. For example, what is the color of the following word: RED.

Notice how your brain processed RED in two different ways? That’s wiring.
I don’t disagree with the gist of this post, as Hali is pretty clearly a pass first player, but I think if Fox gets traded and he’s “handed the keys” so to speak, he’ll get those FGAs up (just not to conscious-less gunner levels).

He was basically a 20/10 pg while Fox was on H&S. And while I can’t see Hali ever breaking 25ppg, I can see him average a pretty solid 18-22ish to go along with all those dimes.

I’m getting more a lot more on board with a Fox trade lately…SLABstrodamus’s prediction of Hali surpassing Fox seems more believable every game!
 
Just for the record, "The Sacramento Kings have agreed to trade DeMarcus Cousins and Omri Casspi to the New Orleans Pelicans in exchange for Tyreke Evans, 2016 first-round draft pick Buddy Hield, Langston Galloway and first- and second-round draft picks this summer"

Boogie was unanimously one of, if not THE best C in the league at the time, to give credit where credit is due.

But I digress... not jumping into this again haha
Yet, not a single upper tier GM in the league would have chosen Cousins as their main big to build with. Professionalism, character, and culture matters a lot
 
We have to take into account that the Haliburton/Mitchell tandem plays the majority of their minutes against backups, which will make their numbers look better than the Haliburton/Fox tandem against starters.
And inevitably the Haliburton/Mitchell units start crashing once the other team goes back to their starters and Gentry immediately goes back to to his starters for the bail out.
 
Absolute statements regarding a topic/point to which the person has no chance of knowing the answer never ceases to amuse.

The real answer is that you only know what you would do.
The fact is that there was very little interest around the league, when he was completely healthy in his peak prime. Vlade had very few options, but he knew he needed to trade him. A guy who was a center himself and coveted bigs
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
This is where I think statistics leave a lot to be desired. Like @Capt. Factorial said, a 60% three is the best shot in the league. He should be taking that shot every time down the floor. But if he did shoot 50+ step back threes a game he wouldn't make anywhere near 60% of them because the other team would catch on and force him to pass. That's why context matters. How and when he's taking those shots, is he wide open when he caught the ball, how did he get open. For instance, you would expect that his pull up threes are a lower percentage because he's usually taking those as the primary ballhandler so he's not open.

It's a curious contradiction that Haliburton has been this scorching hot and yet we've struggled as a team offensively in a lot of those games. One of Haliburton's strengths is that he has a good understanding of the difference between a good shot and a bad shot and he usually doesn't take the bad ones. It's not that his FGA aren't scalable, they are, but the more the offense leans on him the more defenses will pay attention to stopping him (like they currently smother Buddy whenever he touches the ball) and that tilts all sorts of statistical data in the wrong direction. Hali is an opportunistic scorer who likes to pass out of pick and rolls and shoots better off kick outs from the lane. If you make him the #1 option you take away what he does well. On offense the player setting the screen, the ballhandler/distributor, and the shooter are all important contributors to a made basket.
 
That's pretty eye-opening. A 60% three (1.8 points per shot) is a must-take shot. In the halfcourt, the likelihood that you're going to get a better shot than that if you pass it up is basically zero.
Makes me wonder if we give Ty more freedom, could he be a mini-Zack Lavine (who was also a PG coming into the league) as far as efficiency, and recreate a similar dynamic duo with Fox being the midrange King that DeRozen is. (I understand DeMarr is huge sizewise compare to Fox, but ultimately is about getting to his spots)

Just throwing around some random ideas in my head... haha

(Feel free to let me know how wrong I am hahaha)
 
Makes me wonder if we give Ty more freedom, could he be a mini-Zack Lavine (who was also a PG coming into the league) as far as efficiency, and recreate a similar dynamic duo with Fox being the midrange King that DeRozen is. (I understand DeMarr is huge sizewise compare to Fox, but ultimately is about getting to his spots)

Just throwing around some random ideas in my head... haha

(Feel free to let me know how wrong I am hahaha)
I have followed Lavine since HS. He is and has always been a score first guard. He is and has always been closer to Fox than Hali.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
The fact is that there was very little interest around the league, when he was completely healthy in his peak prime. Vlade had very few options, but he knew he needed to trade him. A guy who was a center himself and coveted bigs
iirc….

Cousins was deemed untouchable until the 25th hour when Vivek decided he wanted to trade him after all…. But only for Ingram or Buddy.

As usual ownership prepooped the bed.
 
Makes me wonder if we give Ty more freedom, could he be a mini-Zack Lavine (who was also a PG coming into the league) as far as efficiency, and recreate a similar dynamic duo with Fox being the midrange King that DeRozen is. (I understand DeMarr is huge sizewise compare to Fox, but ultimately is about getting to his spots)

Just throwing around some random ideas in my head... haha

(Feel free to let me know how wrong I am hahaha)
To give more context to this, Fox was #10 in the league last season at scoring in the range of 0-8ft at 61.1% (1 of only 3 who isn't a big, other 2 being KD and Kawhi). He dropped a little bit at 8-16ft but still remain 47% out of 217 attempts. It's reasonable to believe if he goes back to last season's scoring shape, he could stay put close to 50%, which would be about as deadly as KD and Demar have been closing games within the 8-16ft range (53% and 52.4% respectively). Instead of the 3pt, maybe Fox should take a page out of DeRozan's book and be deadly at getting to his spot midrange (which he is already quite deadly) if he ends up the SG in this scenario where Ty runs the show.

Lastly, funny tidbit but we seem to forget how amazing Holmes was last season, to remind everyone, he was ahead of KD (yes, above KD) in both attempts from 8-16ft and percentage (60.5%, that's 61% if you round out lol)
 
iirc….

Cousins was deemed untouchable until the 25th hour when Vivek decided he wanted to trade him after all…. But only for Ingram or Buddy.

As usual ownership prepooped the bed.
Do you recall anything about interest around the league? The word was that there was very little. He was viewed as a ticking time bomb, too risky. Not worth a big investment