Fox or Haliburton?
- Thread starter Sac4cwebb
- Start date
And that is one the reasons why people say it's pointless to shoot for a top 5 pick, because you can wind up with a bust. We all know this but we also know that by playing the odds, a GM can close his eyes and just point to any player mocked in the top 5 for any given year and will wind up with a good team and a couple of all stars before the Kings will make the playoffs using the technique the Kings like the employ in 34 win seasons and late lottery picks.
In fairness to Vlade, he didn't just typically sit and take BPA while watching it burn for over a season or two. He tried to maximize the assets he had either by trade downs or other moves. Right or wrong, Vlade tried to make things happen, so far, Monte is just letting things happen. Very end of Petrie era esque right now.
Eh, standing pat is frustrating, but it doesn’t set a franchise back years like Vlade’s draft blunders or other high profile misteps he made such as the Philly trade.
Definitely a pick your poison situation though, and both scenarios are bad GMing.
Rumors are starting to swirl around Fox and Hali, and I don’t think it’s all on McNair that nobody is chomping at the bit for players like Bagley or Buddy… there is still a lot of Vlade stank in the “war chest” of assets this team can throw on the block.
Definitely a pick your poison situation though, and both scenarios are bad GMing.
Rumors are starting to swirl around Fox and Hali, and I don’t think it’s all on McNair that nobody is chomping at the bit for players like Bagley or Buddy… there is still a lot of Vlade stank in the “war chest” of assets this team can throw on the block.
Yeah I wasn’t criticizing Vlade’s moves at all.
Even in retrospect, those moves are strong. 2016 wasn’t a great draft and getting the rights to Bogi alone not to mention the other picks was a deal I would do again. Not drafting when Siakim or Murray across multiple picks was unfortunate.
2017 was a great draft and again it was so deep trading down from 10 was a good move.
The problem was not drafting John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White or Dillon Brooks after him.
Like I said Vlade made the right moves but then completely F’d up the draft execution like no other GM is history even ignoring the Luka fiasco.
Even in retrospect, those moves are strong. 2016 wasn’t a great draft and getting the rights to Bogi alone not to mention the other picks was a deal I would do again. Not drafting when Siakim or Murray across multiple picks was unfortunate.
2017 was a great draft and again it was so deep trading down from 10 was a good move.
The problem was not drafting John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White or Dillon Brooks after him.
Like I said Vlade made the right moves but then completely F’d up the draft execution like no other GM is history even ignoring the Luka fiasco.
positioned himself well how? Traded Boogie for pennies on the dollar and had the audacity to ADMITT he left a better deal on the table. Traded a FRP and a draft swap for free cap space. 2 summers with a massive FA budget and came away with old VC, old ZBO, George Hill 60 mil contract traded after 43 games, Dewayne Dedmon traded after 34 games, Trevor Ariza traded after 32 games, gave CoJo 12mil/season, invested virtually nothing in the 2nd round or developmental prospects, never focused on building future FRP, even when we were bad. Coach management from Karl to Joerger to Walton was just awful all around. Then of course the atrocious draft record.
Selecting Fox was good, Bogi trade was good (and then proceeded wasted the FRP's), Barnes trade was good, Bjelica signing was fine, Holmes was good. There's not a single net positive move outside of those in his 5-year span.
Selecting Fox was good, Bogi trade was good (and then proceeded wasted the FRP's), Barnes trade was good, Bjelica signing was fine, Holmes was good. There's not a single net positive move outside of those in his 5-year span.
I think I was clear how… both the 2016 and 2017 trade downs were even in hind sight good moves. As was the trade of Cousins which should have happened earlier and we perhaps would have gotten two firsts and Hield.
Unfortunately he was a horrible drafter and negated the good he accomplished from those trades. The Philly trade excepted Vlade actually made good trades. He just drafted worse than throwing darts at a board. And that statement isn’t revisionist history. I said so after the 2017 season before the 2018 draft and 2/3rds of this board flamed me for it.
Unfortunately he was a horrible drafter and negated the good he accomplished from those trades. The Philly trade excepted Vlade actually made good trades. He just drafted worse than throwing darts at a board. And that statement isn’t revisionist history. I said so after the 2017 season before the 2018 draft and 2/3rds of this board flamed me for it.
lol, it's crazy you can't even keep your own point straight. How is trading down in hindsight a good move if he blew the picks? That would classify that as a "bad move" in hindsight. The Cousins trade was horrible; he didn't come close to getting proper value for a young all-star center just entering his prime.
I just laid out how he choked away every aspect of the GM job. Not just drafting. He was horrible in FA. Most of his trades were trying to "fix" said FA mistakes. His one impactful trade win in his ENTIRE tenure was Barnes for JJ and ZBO expiring. He grossly mishandled his coaches. You have clearly shown you want to ignore those aspects, so there's not really much to discuss here.
I just laid out how he choked away every aspect of the GM job. Not just drafting. He was horrible in FA. Most of his trades were trying to "fix" said FA mistakes. His one impactful trade win in his ENTIRE tenure was Barnes for JJ and ZBO expiring. He grossly mishandled his coaches. You have clearly shown you want to ignore those aspects, so there's not really much to discuss here.
Apparently you are not capable of distinguishing between putting yourself in a good spot and still ****ing up and failing to put yourself in the spot at all. So therefore why bother with further discussion.
And btw the way, I laid out he was poor at his job a full year before you figured it out. You are still trying to sort it out.
And btw the way, I laid out he was poor at his job a full year before you figured it out. You are still trying to sort it out.
You can never predict injuries. Maybe could say Boogie was more prone because of his size, but it's likely he would have adapted with how the league shifted and lost weight like most of the beefy bois have in the last 5 years.
What we can analyze is what actually happened. And he bungled that trade every which way possible.
What we can analyze is what actually happened. And he bungled that trade every which way possible.
Here is how the On/Off stats shake out for our different PG combinations:
Fox & Haliburton On the Court / Mitchell Off the Court = -3.1 Net Rtg (112.2 Off Rtg & 115.3 Def Rtg over 699 minutes)
Fox & Mitchell On the Court / Haliburton Off the Court = -11.7 Net Rtg (106.3 Off Rtg & 118.0 Def Rtg over 340 minutes)
Haliburton & Mitchell On the Court / Fox Off the Court = +0.9 Net Rtg (103.0 Off Rtg & 102.1 Def Rtg over 350 minutes)
I think we can all admit that Fox had a pretty slow start to the season and starting to get back to normal at the beginning of December. Below is the same on/off stats as I posted above except I have filtered on the date range 12/1-1/9:
Fox & Haliburton On the Court / Mitchell Off the Court = -3.5 Net Rtg (111.9 Off Rtg & 115.4 Def Rtg over 289 minutes)
Fox & Mitchell On the Court / Haliburton Off the Court = -4.5 Net Rtg (113.0 Off Rtg & 117.5 Def Rtg over 104 minutes)
Haliburton & Mitchell On the Court / Fox Off the Court = +2.5 Net Rtg (110.8 Off Rtg & 108.3 Def Rtg over 154 minutes)
In both cases, it indicates that Haliburton/Mitchell is the most impactful young guard pairing we have despite Fox coming back around as of late.
Now this isn't the end all be all as this doesn't cleanly control for the quality of teammates and the quality of the competition, but it's interesting to say the least. Particularly defensively. A Def Rtg of 102.1 would be 1st in the league (GSW is currently at 102.2). Even 108.3 is a significant improvement from where we're at currently (would be 14th in the league).
Here is also their combined per36 min stats from 12/1-1/9 when they are on the court together:
Fox & Haliburton (289 minutes): .650 TS% / .525 FG% / .494 3PT% / .833 FT% / 42.7 PPG / 8.1 RPG / 12.0 APG / 3.2 SPG / 1.5 BPG / 4.1 TOPG
Fox & Mitchell (104 minutes): .558 TS% / .467 FG% / .423 3PT% / .762 FT% / 39.1 PPG / 8.0 RPG / 8.7 APG / 2.1 SPG / 0.7 BPG / 3.8 TOPG
Haliburton & Mitchell (154 minutes): .519 TS% / .441 FG% / .333 3PT% / .769 FT% / 27.8 PPG / 6.8 RPG / 13.6 APG / 0.9 SPG / 0.5 BPG / 3.3 TOPG
Looking at these stats, it seems a bit surprising that Haliburton & Mitchell are the most impactful pairing from an on/off standpoint as they basically have the worst stats in each category with the exception of assists and turnovers. Makes me question the Net Rtg of this group in that they may have been fortunate to play with better teammates or play against weaker competition. I mean when you're backcourt is averaging (per36 min when on the court together)...
De'Aaron Fox (289 minutes): .607 TS% / .517 FG% / .290 3PT% / .800 FT% / 25.5 PPG / 4.0 RPG / 4.2 APG / 1.6 SPG / 0.2 BPG / 2.1 TOPG
Ty. Haliburton (289 minutes): .734 TS% / .539 FG% / .625 3PT% / 1.000 FT% / 17.2 PPG / 4.1 RPG / 7.7 APG / 1.6 SPG / 1.2 BPG / 2.0 TOPG
...it's hard to come to the conclusion that they are the problem. However, advanced impact stats that are supposed to control for quality of teammates and competition tend to suggest Haliburton & Mitchell impact winning more than Fox...
LEBRON
Haliburton =+0.60
Fox = -1.00
Mitchell = -1.08
LA-RAPM
Mitchell = +0.96
Haliburton =+0.28
Fox = -2.33
RAPTOR
Haliburton =+1.8
Mitchell = -1.6
Fox = -3.3
Unfortunately, I don't have access to these stats by just looking at 12/1-1/9 so hard to see if Fox's improvements are coming through into his impact on the floor via these stats.
Fox & Haliburton On the Court / Mitchell Off the Court = -3.1 Net Rtg (112.2 Off Rtg & 115.3 Def Rtg over 699 minutes)
Fox & Mitchell On the Court / Haliburton Off the Court = -11.7 Net Rtg (106.3 Off Rtg & 118.0 Def Rtg over 340 minutes)
Haliburton & Mitchell On the Court / Fox Off the Court = +0.9 Net Rtg (103.0 Off Rtg & 102.1 Def Rtg over 350 minutes)
I think we can all admit that Fox had a pretty slow start to the season and starting to get back to normal at the beginning of December. Below is the same on/off stats as I posted above except I have filtered on the date range 12/1-1/9:
Fox & Haliburton On the Court / Mitchell Off the Court = -3.5 Net Rtg (111.9 Off Rtg & 115.4 Def Rtg over 289 minutes)
Fox & Mitchell On the Court / Haliburton Off the Court = -4.5 Net Rtg (113.0 Off Rtg & 117.5 Def Rtg over 104 minutes)
Haliburton & Mitchell On the Court / Fox Off the Court = +2.5 Net Rtg (110.8 Off Rtg & 108.3 Def Rtg over 154 minutes)
In both cases, it indicates that Haliburton/Mitchell is the most impactful young guard pairing we have despite Fox coming back around as of late.
Now this isn't the end all be all as this doesn't cleanly control for the quality of teammates and the quality of the competition, but it's interesting to say the least. Particularly defensively. A Def Rtg of 102.1 would be 1st in the league (GSW is currently at 102.2). Even 108.3 is a significant improvement from where we're at currently (would be 14th in the league).
Here is also their combined per36 min stats from 12/1-1/9 when they are on the court together:
Fox & Haliburton (289 minutes): .650 TS% / .525 FG% / .494 3PT% / .833 FT% / 42.7 PPG / 8.1 RPG / 12.0 APG / 3.2 SPG / 1.5 BPG / 4.1 TOPG
Fox & Mitchell (104 minutes): .558 TS% / .467 FG% / .423 3PT% / .762 FT% / 39.1 PPG / 8.0 RPG / 8.7 APG / 2.1 SPG / 0.7 BPG / 3.8 TOPG
Haliburton & Mitchell (154 minutes): .519 TS% / .441 FG% / .333 3PT% / .769 FT% / 27.8 PPG / 6.8 RPG / 13.6 APG / 0.9 SPG / 0.5 BPG / 3.3 TOPG
Looking at these stats, it seems a bit surprising that Haliburton & Mitchell are the most impactful pairing from an on/off standpoint as they basically have the worst stats in each category with the exception of assists and turnovers. Makes me question the Net Rtg of this group in that they may have been fortunate to play with better teammates or play against weaker competition. I mean when you're backcourt is averaging (per36 min when on the court together)...
De'Aaron Fox (289 minutes): .607 TS% / .517 FG% / .290 3PT% / .800 FT% / 25.5 PPG / 4.0 RPG / 4.2 APG / 1.6 SPG / 0.2 BPG / 2.1 TOPG
Ty. Haliburton (289 minutes): .734 TS% / .539 FG% / .625 3PT% / 1.000 FT% / 17.2 PPG / 4.1 RPG / 7.7 APG / 1.6 SPG / 1.2 BPG / 2.0 TOPG
...it's hard to come to the conclusion that they are the problem. However, advanced impact stats that are supposed to control for quality of teammates and competition tend to suggest Haliburton & Mitchell impact winning more than Fox...
LEBRON
Haliburton =+0.60
Fox = -1.00
Mitchell = -1.08
LA-RAPM
Mitchell = +0.96
Haliburton =+0.28
Fox = -2.33
RAPTOR
Haliburton =+1.8
Mitchell = -1.6
Fox = -3.3
Unfortunately, I don't have access to these stats by just looking at 12/1-1/9 so hard to see if Fox's improvements are coming through into his impact on the floor via these stats.
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