I've watched a little bit of Elmore when I was trying to get a better feel for his teammate Ajdin Penava. I'm curious, I know talent triumphs all, but don't you guys weigh in heavily the fact that he's playing in Conference USA? It's easy to dominate and stat-pad in that weaker conference. Last year Penava was able to put up 15pts 8.5rebs 3.9blks 1.9asts on 56/34/75, but after a couple mins of watching him, you can easily tell that he wouldn't be able to translate any of that over. Getting the same vibe from Elmore. I could definitely be wrong though.
Just for me, when I scout smaller school prospects, the very first thing I look at is to see if they have a freak physical body. If they don't, then I get iffy on them just because they're dominating with their skills against a lower tier of competition. You'd wonder if they'd be able to do that in the ACC let alone the NBA.
Of course I take the school and the conference into consideration. At least as best I can. But I'm not going to dismiss a player because he plays in a lesser conference. C. J. McCollum got overlooked by a few teams because of his conference, and also that he was injured his last year. People wern't sure what he was, a SG or a PG, and questioned the competition he played against. But regardless of the competition, you can tell if a player can dribble, pass, shoot, and has BBIQ. The question of course is, will it translate?
I think that's a bigger question for a center and a PG, like Elmore, than it is other wing players. Both those positions can be affected by the opposition more than a SG or a SF. Or even a PF in todays NBA. You can't hide a PG or a Center, especially a PG. A player either has the skill to play the point, or he doesn't, and if he doesn't, he'll get quickly exposed. Which Mason is finding out. Mason has the skill level and is athletic enough, but right now, it's his inability to adjust that's hurting him. He's become a one trick pony, and that won't get you far in the NBA.
But to answer your question about Elmore, I have no idea whether he can play in the NBA. I can make an educated guess, but I can't speak in absolutes. People that watch a player play, and then say absolutely he can or can't do this, lose me. The best anyone can do is make as good a guess as possible based on as much info that you have. That's why I try my best to watch a player play in a minimum of 7 to 8 games. Most of the top players I usually watch play over 20 times in a year. Hey, teams like Kentucky etc. are on TV all the time. Not that hard, just time consuming.
The thing is, if you watch just one game, or two games, you might see the best, or the worse game of that players career, and then pass judgement. Example: Kingster watched Omari Spellman play in that tourney game, and was willing to use a top five pick on him. While I like Spellman, and saw him play well over 20 times at Villanova, there is no way on god's earth I would have taken him in the top five. I had him going at the top of the 2nd or the bottom of the 1st.
Look, I watched Josh Hart play at Villanova, and thought that he was talented enough to be a middle of the first rd pick. I wouldn't call Villanova, or its conference a lesser conference, but lets be honest. It doesn't get the top highschoolers and as a result, the notoriety of the top schools. As a result, players like Hart get overlooked to some extent. Some people look at them as a product of their current environment. Or, some don't like the age. Or both! Point is, Hart is a damm good player, and there are others like him out there. Happy hunting!