Evans and Martin, Sacramento's two silent assassins...

[Merdiesel]

After watching last nights game I really think these two kids are going to ball together. There was a specific play that really stood out to me and it was when Evans had the drive and kick out to Mathews for 3.. I know a lot of guys can do that but just the simple fact that Evans isn't just thinking score every time he drives is huge IMO. I can't wait to see how much Martin goes off next year with a guy like Evans drawing the defense in and vice versa.

Oct. 27 could not come any slower!!

 

[NME]

I hope everybody likes freethrows!

 

[NoBonus]

I hope everybody like freethrows!

Word.

 

[AriesMar27]

at the rate they they get to the line games will take forever.... at least no one will be tired by the end of the game with all of the standing around that they will be doing while martin and evans shoot freethrows.

 

[Bricklayer]

I hope everybody like freethrows!

I think we have proven ever since Kevin arrived that FTs and wins are two totally unconnected statistics, but the way/reason Evans looks to be a FT magnet may be the real boon. Basically he earns them. Same way a LeBron does or a Wade -- he's got great penetrating ability and post up ability for a PG and he just attacks the paint/rim and leaves people no choice but to either foul him or let him score. This isn't flopping or trying to draw the foul or any of that soft nonsense. He's scoring from the line because the other team figures that's the only way to stop what he's doing.

Now on the other hand I am not entirely in agreement with the OP -- I think Kevin might well be a bad backcourt match for Reke, can't really help with the ballhandling, is going to see his own touches/shots slip, at which point the lack of other dimensions to his game becomes a real problem, and in general it might be a better on paper match than in reality match. We'll see, but I think Kevin's ideal backcourt mate would be an Andre Miller, or Steve Nash or somebody who is all pass and likes to get out on the break too.

 

[Kingsguy881]

Reke likes to get out and run, it's how Memphis succeeded when they put him at the point. I think the major issue you see with Kevin as Reke's backcourt mate is that Kevin is not a great dribbler and the backcourt could have problems getting the ball into the frontcourt. But if the Kings are smart then they will learn to pass the ball to avoid any double teams. Very rarely is there a team that will play full court press for the majority of a game. If Reke can learn to do like Bibby did, pass the ball ahead to avoid the pressure and then come and get it on the wing to start the offense, the fact that Kevin is not a great ball handler becomes moot.

I for one like the idea of Reke being able to draw defenses in to the painted area and getting Martin some wide open looks. It just sounds so good I get tingly.

 

[Kingster]

I think we have proven ever since Kevin arrived that FTs and wins are two totally unconnected statistics, but the way/reason Evans looks to be a FT magnet may be the real boon. Basically he earns them. Same way a LeBron does or a Wade -- he's got great penetrating ability and post up ability for a PG and he just attacks the paint/rim and leaves people no choice but to either foul him or let him score. This isn't flopping or trying to draw the foul or any of that soft nonsense. He's scoring from the line because the other team figures that's the only way to stop what he's doing.

Now on the other hand I am not entirely in agreement with the OP -- I think Kevin might well be a bad backcourt match for Reke, can't really help with the ballhandling, is going to see his own touches/shots slip, at which point the lack of other dimensions to his game becomes a real problem, and in general it might be a better on paper match than in reality match. We'll see, but I think Kevin's ideal backcourt mate would be an Andre Miller, or Steve Nash or somebody who is all pass and likes to get out on the break too.

Wins and FTs are totally unconnected? So if one team gets 40 FTs and the other gets 0, the team that gets the 40FTs is just as likely to lose as to win? That's hard to believe. We need our resident statistician to weigh in on that one.

Also, I don't understand the significance of how a player gets FTs. The game doesn't make value judgements on free throws. Now, if you're trying to say that the players who are more likely to convert on a three point play are more valuable, I can understand that, but if FTs come from a flop or a low-bridge, it's still potentially two points.

Regarding Tyreke and Kevin, it all depends on how fast Tyreke adjusts to his ball-handling duties. At this point, that's a large question. We really don't know how fast his learning curve is going to be. One thing for sure, we shouldn't see Kevin handling the ball 30 feet from the basket nearly as much next year, and that's a definite positive.

 

[sactownfan]

I think Kevin might well be a bad backcourt match for Reke, can't really help with the ballhandling, is going to see his own touches/shots slip, at which point the lack of other dimensions to his game becomes a real problem, and in general it might be a better on paper match than in reality match. We'll see, but I think Kevin's ideal backcourt mate would be an Andre Miller, or Steve Nash or somebody who is all pass and likes to get out on the break too.

I've 100% decided that at best Martin is an Odom like #3 scoring option. There are many different way to free up a shooter or slasher like Martin. Yes one way is too have a nash or miller (nash is a one of a kind all around game all-star btw) that will make the awesome challenging passes but another is having players that command extra attention... ala KOBE,Bynum and PAU for Odom...

Like a... DOUBLE TEAM! lol!
(im gonna take it back to the double team) With not a single player commanding a double team on the court... Evans looks to be a #1 or #2 scoring option. Thus is the best possible match WE could have both Right Now for this team and is a player that we can build our style around for the future.

all that really matters is that Evans passes when he should pass... yes hes gonna make mistakes and force some shots, but at the end of the day did he use his driving abilities to set people up?
well so far he looks to be what Artest and Salmons could never figure out (probably cause their both mental) and that is helping your team mates is good for the team cause they will be open.

IN FACT if we were able to add just one more #1 or #2 scoring option that also commanded a double team... and put them out on the floor right now with Evans and Martin... I'd say were back to they playoffs and contending in maybe several years. Martin would have open shots all day with one more double team commanding player on the floor.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I think we have proven ever since Kevin arrived that FTs and wins are two totally unconnected statistics...

This isn't true, though. I just looked through the data for the last four years (since Kevin's been a starter). Since it's not completely useful to look at absolute # of FTA because of pace considerations, I looked at percentage of free throws taken (i.e., Kings FTA/Total FTA). This (very small) sample size has a strong positive correlation with team winning percentage (r = 0.77).

Looking at the past 20 years for just the Kings, the positive correlation is slightly smaller (r = 0.68) but it is quite statistically significant (p = 0.001).

I'd look at more teams, larger sample sizes, etc., but I'm at work and I had to grab all the numbers by hand. At any rate, free throw attempts and wins have a strong positive correlation over the last 20 Kings seasons, and there's no reason to believe that wouldn't hold up for the NBA as a whole.

Now it's important to remember that correlation does not imply causation. It's easy to see how more free throws could cause more wins (easy points, opponent foul trouble) and how more wins could cause more free throws (endgame fouling). Additionally, there may be other factors that influence both (e.g. a better team leads to more wins, and a better team leads to more FT attempts as your opponent fouls to try to stop you). All three of these probably play a role in the correlation. But to say that the correlation is not there is false.

 

[sactownfan]

This isn't true

capt. funny! LOL!

hey lets just be happy we dont plan on having a Rubio and Flynn backcourt on the floor at the same time.

Minny's new GM is cracking me up

 

[Henkel]

I think the distinction Brick was making is Martins game is predicated on getting to the free throw line. Evans gets to the line as a result of attacking the basket as opposed to trying to draw fouls. The problem with trying to score through drawing fouls is how inconsistent it can be. If you don't get the calls while jumping into a player or at the end of games when refs are willing to let more contact slide then a player like martin is going to have trouble. Also when you jump into a guy and don't get the call while shooting a air ball you are just taking a bad shot. If you take it to the basket and don't get the call you still have a high percentage shot and you have collapsed the defense so even if you miss the chance of a offensive rebound goes way up. Evans goes to the basket to score, not to get fouled, which is a a different and in my opinion better way of getting to the line.

I also agree with Brick that Martin and Evans don't compliment each other. We will see how it works out but without a small forward who can handle and make some plays I don't see it working long term.

 

[VF21]

With Evans and Martin both able to draw fouls at will, I suspect we'll see opponents in foul trouble before the end of the first half. They'll have to alter their game styles and the Kings will be the beneficiaries. I strongly beleive Evans can, in fact, augment Martin's game. Kevin is not a selfish player. He loves to play off someone else - if martin draws a double, it leaves more room for Evans and we haven't even mentioned our other three players.

I'm looking forward to seeing a lineup of Evans/Martin/Greene/Thompson/Hawes on the court ... give the kids the ball and let them prove what they can do. And if Casspi and Brockman bring the skills I think they can, we're already part way back to the fun... There's no guarantee of winning a lot of games, but there will definitely be entertainment, excitement and players with heart and hustle on the court.

Mark my words. This is shaping up to be a much better time to be a Kings fan than in the past couple of years.

 

[bajaden]

I have mixed feelings about the Evans/Martin backcourt. I'm not saying it won't work, but I do agree with Bricky about Martins weaknesses. And if there going to play a motion offense similar to the Princeton, then passing the ball becomes a primary talent. Another area where Martin doesn't excell. There are ways to cover up such deficiences, so we'll have to wait and see. My guess is that Martin's scoring is going to go down, and that he's going to do a lot more spot up shooting. You can pass the five times and get someone open, in less time than it takes to run Martin off two or three screens in order to get him open.

 

[Kingster]

This isn't true, though. I just looked through the data for the last four years (since Kevin's been a starter). Since it's not completely useful to look at absolute # of FTA because of pace considerations, I looked at percentage of free throws taken (i.e., Kings FTA/Total FTA). This (very small) sample size has a strong positive correlation with team winning percentage (r = 0.77).

Looking at the past 20 years for just the Kings, the positive correlation is slightly smaller (r = 0.68) but it is quite statistically significant (p = 0.001).

I'd look at more teams, larger sample sizes, etc., but I'm at work and I had to grab all the numbers by hand. At any rate, free throw attempts and wins have a strong positive correlation over the last 20 Kings seasons, and there's no reason to believe that wouldn't hold up for the NBA as a whole.

Now it's important to remember that correlation does not imply causation. It's easy to see how more free throws could cause more wins (easy points, opponent foul trouble) and how more wins could cause more free throws (endgame fouling). Additionally, there may be other factors that influence both (e.g. a better team leads to more wins, and a better team leads to more FT attempts as your opponent fouls to try to stop you). All three of these probably play a role in the correlation. But to say that the correlation is not there is false.

Thanks much for that analysis! Fair and balanced.

 

[Kingster]

I have mixed feelings about the Evans/Martin backcourt. I'm not saying it won't work, but I do agree with Bricky about Martins weaknesses. And if there going to play a motion offense similar to the Princeton, then passing the ball becomes a primary talent. Another area where Martin doesn't excell. There are ways to cover up such deficiences, so we'll have to wait and see. My guess is that Martin's scoring is going to go down, and that he's going to do a lot more spot up shooting. You can pass the five times and get someone open, in less time than it takes to run Martin off two or three screens in order to get him open.

I highly doubt they play the Princeton offense. Westphal has already said he wants to augment the strengths of his players and minimize their weaknesses in the offense that he designs. Whatever offense they play, I'm 99% sure it's going to be centered around Tyreke and his ability to penetrate the ball. The Princeton offense doesn't do that. Basically, you've got an outstanding penetrating guard and four other guys who can spread the floor with outside shooting. I think Westphal is going to design the offense around those strengths. And, hopefully, pretty please, if Spencer and/or Thompson have developed a serviceable post-up game, he'll incorporate some of that as well.

 

[Kingster]

With Evans and Martin both able to draw fouls at will, I suspect we'll see opponents in foul trouble before the end of the first half. They'll have to alter their game styles and the Kings will be the beneficiaries. I strongly beleive Evans can, in fact, augment Martin's game. Kevin is not a selfish player. He loves to play off someone else - if martin draws a double, it leaves more room for Evans and we haven't even mentioned our other three players.

I'm looking forward to seeing a lineup of Evans/Martin/Greene/Thompson/Hawes on the court ... give the kids the ball and let them prove what they can do. And if Casspi and Brockman bring the skills I think they can, we're already part way back to the fun... There's no guarantee of winning a lot of games, but there will definitely be entertainment, excitement and players with heart and hustle on the court.

Mark my words. This is shaping up to be a much better time to be a Kings fan than in the past couple of years.

Just to add to your point, it seems like most people are visualizing a walk-it-up-the floor offense when talking about Evans and Martin. If this team can run, there are going to be tons of opportunities for Kevin to get open shots and show his speed. For every time that Evans gets a rebound, you're almost guaranteed of getting a fast break. As soon as he gets it, he's gone, and Martin is going to be right there with him.

 

[AriesMar27]

I highly doubt they play the Princeton offense. Westphal has already said he wants to augment the strengths of his players and minimize their weaknesses in the offense that he designs. Whatever offense they play, I'm 99% sure it's going to be centered around Tyreke and his ability to penetrate the ball. The Princeton offense doesn't do that. Basically, you've got an outstanding penetrating guard and four other guys who can spread the floor with outside shooting. I think Westphal is going to design the offense around those strengths. And, hopefully, pretty please, if Spencer and/or Thompson have developed a serviceable post-up game, he'll incorporate some of that as well.

wouldnt that be a better reason to use the princeton offense? if 4 of your 5 starters are better off with it then you should use it. the fact that evans can create for himself makes it even better for the princeton because if things dont go their way they have someone who can still make things happen. but having 2 pgs who cant shoot (evans/sergio) would make it hard to play the princeton.

 

[VF21]

Just to add to your point, it seems like most people are visualizing a walk-it-up-the floor offense when talking about Evans and Martin. If this team can run, there are going to be tons of opportunities for Kevin to get open shots and show his speed. For every time that Evans gets a rebound, you're almost guaranteed of getting a fast break. As soon as he gets it, he's gone, and Martin is going to be right there with him.

Martin has the incredible quickness off the first step and Evans is, from all reports, like a locomotive building up steam. He doesn't have the explosive first step but he is fast. I think those can make a truly dynamic backcourt! I know Martin is very pleased and excited about Tyreke coming to the Kings...

 

[Bricklayer]

This isn't true, though. I just looked through the data for the last four years (since Kevin's been a starter). Since it's not completely useful to look at absolute # of FTA because of pace considerations, I looked at percentage of free throws taken (i.e., Kings FTA/Total FTA). This (very small) sample size has a strong positive correlation with team winning percentage (r = 0.77).

Looking at the past 20 years for just the Kings, the positive correlation is slightly smaller (r = 0.68) but it is quite statistically significant (p = 0.001).

I'd look at more teams, larger sample sizes, etc., but I'm at work and I had to grab all the numbers by hand. At any rate, free throw attempts and wins have a strong positive correlation over the last 20 Kings seasons, and there's no reason to believe that wouldn't hold up for the NBA as a whole.

Now it's important to remember that correlation does not imply causation. It's easy to see how more free throws could cause more wins (easy points, opponent foul trouble) and how more wins could cause more free throws (endgame fouling). Additionally, there may be other factors that influence both (e.g. a better team leads to more wins, and a better team leads to more FT attempts as your opponent fouls to try to stop you). All three of these probably play a role in the correlation. But to say that the correlation is not there is false.

The easiest way to factor out pace, is just to factor in the pace statistic itself (available at databasebasketball if oen really wants to spend their life chewing those stats). Using opponent's FTs does nothing more than add bad defense into the mix in a fairly obvious bad defense (lots opp Fts) = bad results formula.

Some stats for us since we quit going to the playoffs:
06-07
FTA: 1st in NBA
Wins: 34

07-08
FTA: 3rd in NBA
Wins: 38

08-09
FTA: 6th in NBA
Wins: 17


We have been an absolutely elite FT drawing team for the past 3 years, but we have sucked the reproductive organs of a small equine. Whatever we are doing, it has not worked, has not mattered. Here is my theory:

Lets put it this way, regardless of the merits of shooting FTs AS AN INDICATOR OF AGGRESSIVE PLAY, they have no intrinsic merit in and off themselves. We have not been aggressive, we've been passive weenie floppers. So we can shoot 100 FTs a game and it won't matter, we're still passive, and we still suck. But the difference that I was hinting at is that Evans does not draw FTs by being passive or looking to be bailed out. Quite the opposite, his FTs absolutely ARE an indicator of aggressive play, and an indicator that the other team has no answers for him and foul him out of desperation. So my theory is that Evans FTs should absolutely track -- his FTs are good things, not because he is shooting FTs (FTs have no intrinsic merit), but because in his case his FTs are indicators of the real reason they are often pointed to as a good thing: aggression. Evans doesn't begin a play looking to get fouled, he begins a play looking to score inside and ends up getting fouled when nobody can figure any other way to stop him. That is a winning trait.

In other words you don't build a winner by saying "we are going to draw a lot of fouls!" You build a winner by saying "we are going to be more physical and aggressive than our opponents." And then the fouls come naturally as a result of that. We have confused effect with cause, and have been futiley aping the effect (FTs) without realizing that its the underlying cause (aggression) that is the winning trait.

 

[NME]

Martin has the incredible quickness off the first step and Evans is, from all reports, like a locomotive building up steam.

Thunder & Lightning (TM)

 

[VF21]

^I like it!

 

[sdballer]

Just to add to your point, it seems like most people are visualizing a walk-it-up-the floor offense when talking about Evans and Martin. If this team can run, there are going to be tons of opportunities for Kevin to get open shots and show his speed. For every time that Evans gets a rebound, you're almost guaranteed of getting a fast break. As soon as he gets it, he's gone, and Martin is going to be right there with him.

The problem with that is to run a fast paced transition offense, you generally need to be able to defend and rebound. When the other team scores on the majority of their possessions, that's hard to do. Now, if they brought in some better interior defenders, they may have something.

 

[Warhawk]

So is the Thunder and Lightning causing the Shock and Hawes?

 

[AriesMar27]

nocioni needs a nickname now....

 

[Kingster]

wouldnt that be a better reason to use the princeton offense? if 4 of your 5 starters are better off with it then you should use it. the fact that evans can create for himself makes it even better for the princeton because if things dont go their way they have someone who can still make things happen. but having 2 pgs who cant shoot (evans/sergio) would make it hard to play the princeton.

No. You start with the who can make opportunities for others with his driving ability and his post ups - Evans. Then you go from there. If our best player and ballhandler was a guy who was a fantastic outside shooter, great passer, and very marginal penetrator, and then you added four other guys who could shoot and cut, then sure, the Princeton might be what you would want. But we don't have that.

 

[fnordius]

wouldnt that be a better reason to use the princeton offense? if 4 of your 5 starters are better off with it then you should use it.

It seems certain that we're going to play something which isn't a pure Princeton (which has never been attempted in the NBA, and probably never will be), but which is in most ways similar. Otherwise, it's pretty hard to explain why we drafted Hawes and Evans, why JR and the Maloofs have been talking up that type of game, why Coachie's back and working with Hawes and JT on their three pointers. And Westphal fits in well with that, too. I can see nothing at all to make me think that's not the path that we're headed down.

But the Princeton works with Evans mainly because, in that style of offense, you've really got 5 well-rounded SG/SFs on the court, regardless of whether they're 5'11" or 7'2". Everybody needs to be able to make assists, make long shots, etc. Player specializations, like pass-first PGs, become irrelevant. Evans' chronically low assist/TO ratio isn't very important in a Princetonian offense, because other people will be making most of the assists anyway.

But there are a couple of problems with this, at least in the short term. One is that the Kings are the #28 team in the NBA WRT assist/TO ratio, and the player with the best one by far (Beno) will now be on the bench. Put Evans in his place, and we can expect to have the worst A/TO ratio in the NBA during 2009-10, by a wide margin.

The traditional hole in the middle can be expected to stay, too. Again and again, the FO has shown that they have no interest in defensive bigs, presumably since those are specialized players, and inconsistent with Coachie's style of game. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm really tired of that.

So if I sometimes sound grumpy about our drafting of Evans, it's nothing about him personally, or even his game. I'd be delighted to have him as our SG. But that's not why we got him. I think his acquisition signals a wrong turn for this team, one which can't be corrected without drafting a different PG and changing the playbook to fit.

 

[Kingster]

The problem with that is to run a fast paced transition offense, you generally need to be able to defend and rebound. When the other team scores on the majority of their possessions, that's hard to do. Now, if they brought in some better interior defenders, they may have something.

Yeah, and guess what, we just improved our rebounding and defense with Evans. And maybe some other youngins can join the party. It's not just interior defense, it's EXTERIOR defense. See today's Bee article.

Evans should be a very motivated rebounder. I bet that virtually everytime he gets a rebound, Westphal is going to tell him to RUN!

 

[Capt. Factorial]

The easiest way to factor out pace, is just to factor in the pace statistic itself (available at databasebasketball if oen really wants to spend their life chewing those stats). Using opponent's FTs does nothing more than add bad defense into the mix in a fairly obvious bad defense (lots opp Fts) = bad results formula.

Thanks for the link with actual pace data - taking into account the pace factor and using all teams in the NBA instead of just the Kings, the results are much less dramatic - only a 0.06 positive correlation (not significant) if you look over the past five years.

Actually, it gets weirder. If you look only at the Kings (past 20 years), FT per possession is now NEGATIVELY correlated with win% (though not significantly) as opposed to the strong positive correlation between win% and percentage of total free throws taken (as above). Furthermore, there is only a weak, non-significant correlation between FT/poss and Pts/poss for the Kings, which seems to fly in the face of logic.

At any rate, if percentage of free throws taken were a meaningless formula, it should not introduce a strong correlation, especially when other, presumably more meaningful formulas fail to do so. So I seem to have stumbled on to something there, but exactly what it is, I'm not sure. I'll have to think it over some more.

 

[kupman]

I like 'Reke and Kmart in the line-up together as well. And I will say it again, if 'reke does not look comfortable as a PG then I am curious to see how we would look with a true PG (Sergio?) and playing the two #2 guards alongside JT and Hawes.

It's one way to get the best players on the court together.

 

[AriesMar27]

It seems certain that we're going to play something which isn't a pure Princeton (which has never been attempted in the NBA, and probably never will be), but which is in most ways similar. Otherwise, it's pretty hard to explain why we drafted Hawes and Evans, why JR and the Maloofs have been talking up that type of game, why Coachie's back and working with Hawes and JT on their three pointers. And Westphal fits in well with that, too. I can see nothing at all to make me think that's not the path that we're headed down.

But the Princeton works with Evans mainly because, in that style of offense, you've really got 5 well-rounded SG/SFs on the court, regardless of whether they're 5'11" or 7'2". Everybody needs to be able to make assists, make long shots, etc. Player specializations, like pass-first PGs, become irrelevant. Evans' chronically low assist/TO ratio isn't very important in a Princetonian offense, because other people will be making most of the assists anyway.

But there are a couple of problems with this, at least in the short term. One is that the Kings are the #28 team in the NBA WRT assist/TO ratio, and the player with the best one by far (Beno) will now be on the bench. Put Evans in his place, and we can expect to have the worst A/TO ratio in the NBA during 2009-10, by a wide margin.

The traditional hole in the middle can be expected to stay, too. Again and again, the FO has shown that they have no interest in defensive bigs, presumably since those are specialized players, and inconsistent with Coachie's style of game. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm really tired of that.

So if I sometimes sound grumpy about our drafting of Evans, it's nothing about him personally, or even his game. I'd be delighted to have him as our SG. But that's not why we got him. I think his acquisition signals a wrong turn for this team, one which can't be corrected without drafting a different PG and changing the playbook to fit.

whether its a true princeton offense or some sort of hybrid it will still be a motion offense with tons of passing and cutting. that favors 4 of our 5 starters, our coach, assistant coach, fans, etc... the one outsider being our pg... his ball handling and slashing is no longer an asset if the offense is flowing. so why would we change our offense just to fit one player?

i cant say what would or wouldnt fit in terms of the offense until we see what the final roster looks like. if it remains the same we will suck no matter what offense is set up. we could run the triangle and still suck. oddly enough we do have the right kind of players for the triangle. outside of our pg's 3pt shooting.... though i guess beno would be the best fit for that.