A full article:
Ever played hoops with somebody who wouldn't stop shooting at every chance –
even though he was missing more shots than the CDC during flu season? That
affliction isn't limited to your lunchtime pickup game at the local Y. Plenty
of NBA players suffer from the same problem, putting a serious damper on their
teams' offensive productivity.
We know this to be true merely by observing Antoine Walker or the post-injury
Chris Webber, for example. When it comes to shooting, each has become infamous
for emphasizing quantity rather than quality. But are they the NBA's two worst
offenders, or are some other players gunning just as egregiously? And if so,
how much are these players costing their teams with all those missed shots?
Walker
WebberTo figure this out, we need a way to measure which players are doing the
most damage to their teams with their wayward shooting. This measure should
reflect two attributes: 1) shooting badly and 2) shooting frequently. First,
we need to define what we mean by "shooting badly." In this case, we're not
just referring to a low shooting percentage. After all, some players make
enough 3-pointers or get to the line often enough that they're much more
effective than their shooting percentages suggest. A few, such as Chauncey
Billups, manage to do both, making them much better than their percentage (in
this case 42.8) would lead us to believe.
Thus, rather than using a player's nominal shooting percentage, the way to
measure shooting effectiveness is to use what I call a player's True Shooting
Percentage (TS%) – adjusted for 3-pointers and free throws. That way, we can
properly measure players who get an extra point for their long jumpers or
extra free throws from their drives to the basket.
The formula for TS% is a little different from field-goal percentage, so let's
walk through it (or run if you're math-phobic; meet us at the next paragraph).
Let's start with the numerator, where instead of field goals we use a player's
total points. In the denominator, we use a player's total shots – including
field-goal attempts and free-throw attempts. As I discussed last week, a
free-throw attempt is worth about 0.44 field-goal attempts, so we need to
multiply the free-throw tries by 0.44. Finally, we need to take the end result
and divide by two to give us a TS% for each player.
The equation looks like this:
TS% = Points / ((FGA + (0.44 x FTA)) x 2)
OK, now that we have an equation, who are the league's biggest masons?
Using this measure, the worst shooter is George Lynch of the Hornets, who has
a True Shooting Percentage of 41.1. You might say that's Truly Awful. For some
perspective on that number, the league average in True Shooting is 52.8,
compared with the league field-goal percentage of 44.3. So our standards need
to shift nearly 10 points higher when we look at TS%. If we adjust Lynch's
True Shooting Percentage accordingly (8.5 points), it's 32.6. That's uglier
than Mehmet Okur's mullet.
With that caveat, take a look at the rest of the bottom 10 in True Shooting
(see chart).
True Shooting Percentage Bottom 10
(Min. 500 minutes through 2/28
Player Team TS %
George Lynch Hornets 41.1
Junior Harrington Hornets 42.1
Darrell Armstrong Mavericks 42.6
Keith Bogans Bobcats 43.6
Tierre Brown Lakers 43.7
Lindsey Hunter Pistons 43.8
Brian Scalabrine Nets 44.0
Calbert Cheaney Warriors 44.5
Dale Davis Hornets 44.5
Howard Eisley Jazz 45.2
Of course, TS% is only half of the story. While all 10 players have been about
as accurate as a North Korean press release, they can still minimize the
damage by focusing on other areas. Dale Davis, for instance, takes the floor
mainly to rebound and defend in the paint and averages only three field-goal
attempts per game. Hence, even though his TS% is low, he's not napalming the
offense by insisting on shooting every trip down court. To determine the
players who are actively harming their team's offense requires a second
calculation, using a stat that I call Brick Index. It measures, on a
per-40-minute basis, how many points a player costs his team with his
shooting. Start with the difference between a player's TS% and the league
average of 52.8. Then multiply that result by his "shot attempts" – that is,
field-goal attempts plus free-throw attempts times 0.44. The result is how
many points the player's shooting cost (or benefited) the team. However, to
accurately compare apples to apples, we then need to divide that number by his
minutes played and multiply that result by 40: Brick Index = ((52.8 - TS%) x
(FGA + (FTA x 0.44))) / (Min/40) Finally, we need to raise the bar on minutes
played for our list to have much meaning. I used a 500-minute cutoff in the
first chart, but if we use that list here, we're going to end up with a bunch
of Junior Harringtons and Willie Greens – players who already have lost their
playing time because of their slavish devotion to shooting. Instead, let's
raise the minimum to 1,000 minutes. This way, we're looking at players who are
playing significant minutes despite the damage their shots are inflicting.
Before we see the top 10, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 99
percent of you expect to see Walker at the top. Well, you're close: He's
second. But another player's rampant gunning has been even more noxious than
Walker's (see chart). Brick Index 2004-05 (Min. 1,000 minutes)
Player Team Index
Keith Bogans Bobcats 3.14
Antoine Walker Celtics 2.24
Troy Hudson Timberwolves 2.09
Emeka Okafor Bobcats 2.07
Rodney Buford Nets 2.00
Rasheed Wallace Pistons 1.95
Melvin Ely Bobcats 1.93
Eddie Griffin Timberwolves 1.92
Clifford Robinson Nets 1.86
Chris Webber 76ers 1.80
Keith Bogans. Who knew? But the numbers don't lie: Bogans is out-bricking
Walker. He averages 15 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes, an amazing total
considering he's shooting 36.1. He also is following Walker's lead by
launching nearly two 3-pointers a game despite paltry 26.7 accuracy. By
comparison, 'Toine is money at 41.6 overall and 31.4 from downtown.
Like most players with tunnel vision, Bogans has fallen in love with his jump
shot. The stat mavens at 82games.com report that 69 percent of Bogans' shot
attempts are jumpers, which is insane considering how rarely his jumper finds
the net (just 32 percent, including a ghastly 34.5 on two-point jumpers).
Of course, maybe we shouldn't be so quick to criticize Bogans. You'll notice
that he's not the only Bobcats player making the list – teammates Emeka
Okafor and Melvin Ely also are near the top. There's a reason for this –
somebody on that team has to shoot the ball, and without an A-list offensive
player to run plays through, other players have to take on roles that are far
beyond their abilities. You could make the same defense for Walker, who was
forced to be Team Drobnjak's (aka the Hawks') go-to guy before being paroled
to Boston last week.
But what's Webber's excuse? Playing for one of the best offensive teams in
basketball, Webber led the Kings in field-goal attempts despite being
remarkably less accurate than nearly all of his teammates. Since I've already
ranted on the Webber trade, I'll stop here -- suffice it to say that if Webber
were more content to be a great passer, his team would be more appreciative.
The other surprises on the list are the two Minnesotans, Troy Hudson and Eddie
Griffin. Hudson actually spent some time on the bench earlier this year
because Flip Saunders was so disgusted with his shoot-first approach.
Unfortunately, injuries to Sam Cassell forced Hudson back into the lineup.
Similarly, Griffin started the year shooting well from beyond the 3-point
line, but that only encouraged him to launch ever more brazenly. Minnesota
manages to have a good offense despite those two – it's incredible what Kevin
Garnett can do for a team – but the Timberwolves would be near the top if
Hudson and Griffin gave their shooting arms a rest once in a while.
The worst offenders set their clubs back about two points a game, which will
cost a team about five victories over the course of a season.
Sadly, this type of player seems inclined to remember only his rare successes
and to gloss over his frequent failures. That's where a statistical tool such
as Brick Index can come in handy, shining a harsh light on those who suffer
from selective memories. It demonstrates that the cost to their teams is
significant, too. The worst offenders set their clubs back about two points a
game, which will cost a team about five victories over the course of a season.
Of course, the Brick Index's tenets hold water at any level, not just the
pros. So if a guy on your pickup team won't stop firing up bricks, you'll have
an easy way to vent your anger. Just start calling him "Bogans."
John Hollinger is the author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2004-05." He has
joined ESPN Insider as a regular contributor.
:LOL:
