Draft Lotto Thread (2025 edition)

[KingsFanSince85]

I don't disagree, but all I can do about that is chuckle to myself, and keep it moving. Like I've said before, the thing about conspiracy theorists is that they can't be reasoned out of believing in the conspiracy, because anything that contradicts the conspiracy is just "proof" that they're trying to "cover up" the conspiracy.

I agree with your point, but will add that the same logic can be applied to anti-conspiracy theorists. People see, or don't see, whatever they want to see.

Everything isn't a conspiracy. But it's also silly to believe that conspiracies never or rarely exist.

Like many things, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

 

[mdme]

Pelicans also got the first pick after they gave the lakers AD I’m sure that’s a coincidence

Will we get the #1 next year if we give them Sabonis?

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

Will we get the #1 next year if we give them Sabonis?

No.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

The players have always been very adamantly against a hard salary cap. Your proposal would make things worse for most of the league for two reasons:

1) The total pool of money would be effectively decreased - because teams would not be able to spend over the cap
2) The very best players would eat up even higher percentages of the cap, leaving less overall money for anybody not in the, say, top 10 players

Hard cap has always been a no-go for the NBAPA. Hard cap with no individual salary restrictions would be even worse. Can you imagine LeBron and Luka and Giannis trying to sell it to the rest of the players? "OK, see, we get that all of the rest of you will see your salaries tank, but WE'RE going to make a lot more money!"

And yet players agreed to this new cap that squeezed out the middle class.

I think without having a maximum, but having a hard cap - and lets say that hard cap is what is what is nearly an effective hard cap right now - the second apron - players won't be able to demand a max contract if they are that good, which means they'll probably end up with less because they'll have to fight for it rather than just "give me the max". It's at least possible without that it restores some order to the middle class?

At least agents may actually have to do their jobs and earn their percentages.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I agree with your point, but will add that the same logic can be applied to anti-conspiracy theorists.

No it can't. That makes as much sense as the people who say that atheism is a "religious belief" that there is no god.

People see, or don't see, whatever they want to see.

Everything isn't a conspiracy. But it's also silly to believe that conspiracies never or rarely exist.

Believing in conspiracy theories requires you to 1) "read between the lines" to see subtext where there may or may not be any, and 2) ascribe motives to that subtext for which there is no evidence. For your thesis to be accurate, it would require that people who don't believe in conspiracy theories to deny the existence of something for which there is clear and corroborative evidence, with repeatable results. But that's not what's happening. The most accurate thing that you can say about people who don't believe in conspiracy theories is that they reject the notion that correlation equals causation. A great American philosopher once said, never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity.

Being a conspiracy theorist basically requires you to believe that there's no such thing as incompetence, and that random chance doesn't exist, either. I do not think that the inverse can be correctly stated about people who don't believe in them.

 

[The_Jamal]

I will just cite this as another reason to get rid of all lottery odds and do a straight up draw.

Teams pulling this crap also upset the competitive balance of the standings of teams fighting for seeding. And it forces fans who haven't just quit on their team to root for losses.

Either something along these lines, or something like if you receive a top 5 pick in one season, you aren't eligible to be in the top 5 the next season. Would prevent the SAS essentially full restocking their team because of "luck" with a 1/4/2 picks in 3 consecutive years.

 

[Warhawk]

Another brilliant idea that the NBA can implement is to do what the NHL just did for their "NHL draft lottery". And that is to actually televise the entire thing, so everyone can see the ping pong balls being drawn.

Honestly, I don't "mind" the way the NBA draft lottery is configured; It truly is the most fair way to determine the final draft order.

Taking a page from the NHL, and televising the actual process itself, in my honest opinion, will go a long way in enlisting trust in the fans that the system is, in fact, not rigged.

The NBA's lottery is so thoroughly complex they can't televise the drawing I don't think. It would probably look even more rigged if they did!

That's why I've been advocating a one ball/one pull by team reps type of solution that can't be fudged if it must continue.

Wait, what? The NBA does the same thing that the NHL does for the most part. 14 numbered ping pong balls in a machine, 4 ping pong balls drawn for each pick 1-4. 1000 possible combinations divvied up to all the lottery teams. Do I have that wrong?

And 0 transparency.

You can watch the whole thing here, if you like. They post the video after the announcements are made.

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing | NBA.com

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing

www.nba.com

 

[Spike]

Either something along these lines, or something like if you receive a top 5 pick in one season, you aren't eligible to be in the top 5 the next season. Would prevent the SAS essentially full restocking their team because of "luck" with a 1/4/2 picks in 3 consecutive years.

The Rockies are currently staring this right in the eye. I'm a fan of it.

 

[whitechocolate]

Where's IfAt1st?

 

[Joshyjosh31]

Listening Zach Lowe podcast right now. Before the last lottery ball was drawn we still had an opportunity for the first overall pick.

Man! There’s an alternative universe where we leave the off season with Flagg and Trae Young

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

You can watch the whole thing here, if you like. They post the video after the announcements are made.

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing | NBA.com

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing

www.nba.com

Watching it after the fact is vastly different than watching it live, though. I'd much rather they show the actual drawing live, just like the NHL just did this year.

 

[Warhawk]

Watching it after the fact is vastly different than watching it live, though. I'd much rather they show the actual drawing live, just like the NHL just did this year.

I can understand that. But for those that say there's no transparency, etc., it is indeed viewable.

 

[ockingsfan]

Yes, this actually makes sense that our ball sequences were basically the same as Dallas' ball sequences. C'est la vie.

If this was a random lottery, it wouldn’t really make sense that our numbers on our ticket is sequential to the team next to us. Shouldn’t all the lottery numbers on the tickets be just random combinations? I mean when you go get a quick pick lottery ticket, the machine doesn’t spit out sequential numbers to the person who bought the ticket in front of you. Personally, it would seem odd / suspicious if the lottery tickets numbers were sequential here.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If this was a random lottery, it wouldn’t really make sense that our numbers on our ticket is sequential to the team next to us. Shouldn’t all the lottery numbers on the tickets be just random combinations? I mean when you go get a quick pick lottery ticket, the machine doesn’t spit out sequential numbers to the person who bought the ticket in front of you. Personally, it would seem odd / suspicious if the lottery tickets numbers were sequential here.

Its some formula that none of us thoroughly understand. I think that's why it can't be a made for tv event and needs tweaks but I'm totally fine just moving in a completely new direction that scraps the idea of sending the best players to the worst teams. Some teams (possibly including us, but mostly thinking of Charlotte and Washington, possibly Philly without doing a 5 year+ process, or the teams that land can't miss prospects) are just hopeless no matter who they draft. I can't think of any player besides Cousins we've drafted the last 25+ years that is going to stand out on a dogpoopoo team.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

If this was a random lottery, it wouldn’t really make sense that our numbers on our ticket is sequential to the team next to us. Shouldn’t all the lottery numbers on the tickets be just random combinations? I mean when you go get a quick pick lottery ticket, the machine doesn’t spit out sequential numbers to the person who bought the ticket in front of you. Personally, it would seem odd / suspicious if the lottery tickets numbers were sequential here.

The NBA assigns numbers to teams sequentially.

Thus, Utah would have gotten:
1-2-3-4
1-2-3-5
...
1-4-7-9

Washington would have gotten:
1-4-7-10
...
1-10-12-13

And so on. Without iterating everybody else in between, Dallas would be given:
7-9-10-14
to
8-9-10-11

And we were given:
8-11-12-14
to
9-10-12-14

The first draw was 10-14-11...and then...7, which when put in order is 7-10-11-14 (one of Dallas! Hey I did that all correct!) But 9-10-11-14 was one of our combos, and 9 could have come up as the last ball. Had 8 come up, the pick would have gone to Chicago. Had either 12 or 13 come up, the pick would have gone to San Antonio via Atlanta. If a 1 came up it would have gone to Washington. 2-6...I'm not going to calculate out. But you get the drift.

I don't see what is odd or suspicious about this. The odds of winning are the exact same whether sequences are given out in order or randomly, but it is much easier to pick out the winner off of the big board when they are given out in order.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Its some formula that none of us thoroughly understand. I think that's why it can't be a made for tv event and needs tweaks but I'm totally fine just moving in a completely new direction that scraps the idea of sending the best players to the worst teams. Some teams (possibly including us, but mostly thinking of Charlotte and Washington, possibly Philly without doing a 5 year+ process, or the teams that land can't miss prospects) are just hopeless no matter who they draft. I can't think of any player besides Cousins we've drafted the last 25+ years that is going to stand out on a dogpoopoo team.

"None of us"

While I was typing all of that!

 

[Section 101]

Its some formula that none of us thoroughly understand. I think that's why it can't be a made for tv event and needs tweaks but I'm totally fine just moving in a completely new direction that scraps the idea of sending the best players to the worst teams. Some teams (possibly including us, but mostly thinking of Charlotte and Washington, possibly Philly without doing a 5 year+ process, or the teams that land can't miss prospects) are just hopeless no matter who they draft. I can't think of any player besides Cousins we've drafted the last 25+ years that is going to stand out on a dogpoopoo team.

The need to make the winner of the lotto be not eligible for 3 years, 2 years for 2nd and 1 year for 3rd. Traded picks would still go through the lotto process, but only if they are conveying otherwise draw again. This would also reduce incentive for the lotto protections and make trading picks after winning the lotto to improve teams more viable.

 

[coolhandluke]

"None of us"

While I was typing all of that!

Should have said "none of us normal people"

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

The NBA assigns numbers to teams sequentially.

Thus, Utah would have gotten:
1-2-3-4
1-2-3-5
...
1-4-7-9

Washington would have gotten:
1-4-7-10
...
1-10-12-13

And so on. Without iterating everybody else in between, Dallas would be given:
7-9-10-14
to
8-9-10-11

And we were given:
8-11-12-14
to
9-10-12-14

The first draw was 10-14-11...and then...7, which when put in order is 7-10-11-14 (one of Dallas! Hey I did that all correct!) But 9-10-11-14 was one of our combos, and 9 could have come up as the last ball. Had 8 come up, the pick would have gone to Chicago. Had either 12 or 13 come up, the pick would have gone to San Antonio via Atlanta. If a 1 came up it would have gone to Washington. 2-6...I'm not going to calculate out. But you get the drift.

I don't see what is odd or suspicious about this. The odds of winning are the exact same whether sequences are given out in order or randomly, but it is much easier to pick out the winner off of the big board when they are given out in order.

 

[ESP47]

I agree with your point, but will add that the same logic can be applied to anti-conspiracy theorists. People see, or don't see, whatever they want to see.

Everything isn't a conspiracy. But it's also silly to believe that conspiracies never or rarely exist.

Like many things, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

This right here.

To be an anti conspiracy theorist, you essentially have to take everything at face value as the truth. An anti conspiracy theorist is just as naive as a full on conspiracy theorist. They're just at opposite ends of the spectrum.

I don't know if the NBA lottery is an honest lottery or not but it sure is weird that it's all done behind closed doors for no apparent reason at all. They act like it would be bad for TV but having a bunch of guys make awkward facial expressions as the camera zooms in on them isn't riveting television either.

 

[Spike]

This right here.

To be an anti conspiracy theorist, you essentially have to take everything at face value as the truth. An anti conspiracy theorist is just as naive as a full on conspiracy theorist. They're just at opposite ends of the spectrum.

I don't know if the NBA lottery is an honest lottery or not but it sure is weird that it's all done behind closed doors for no apparent reason at all. They act like it would be bad for TV but having a bunch of guys make awkward facial expressions as the camera zooms in on them isn't riveting television either.

I actually think it would be cool to see the process - it doesn't have to be live; it could be like an "extra" on the NBA app or something. It's basically just like checking your lottery numbers every Thursday.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

This right here.

To be an anti conspiracy theorist, you essentially have to take everything at face value as the truth. An anti conspiracy theorist is just as naive as a full on conspiracy theorist. They're just at opposite ends of the spectrum.

This is ridiculous. Not assuming a shadow conspiracy lurks behind every unfavorable outcome and "taking everything at face value" are not synonyms. The very idea ignores a Grand Canyon's worth of excluded middle ground.

 

[Padrino]

This right here.

To be an anti conspiracy theorist, you essentially have to take everything at face value as the truth. An anti conspiracy theorist is just as naive as a full on conspiracy theorist. They're just at opposite ends of the spectrum.

I don't know if the NBA lottery is an honest lottery or not but it sure is weird that it's all done behind closed doors for no apparent reason at all. They act like it would be bad for TV but having a bunch of guys make awkward facial expressions as the camera zooms in on them isn't riveting television either.

Yeah, that's not really how it works. Somebody who prefers not to indulge conspiracy theories due to a lack of evidence, or, in many cases a mountain of evidence to the contrary, is not naive. They just rely on standards of proof to aid them in constructing their worldview. In this case, the burden of proof falls to the conspiracy theorist, who of course can provide no proof, and thus relies on the logical fallacy that correlation = causation. The Mavericks winning the draft lottery in spite of their slim chance of doing so does not itself suggest a conspiracy. Does it look bad for the NBA? Yes, but only because sports fans are emotional creatures more than they are logical creatures.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Yeah, that's not really how it works. Somebody who prefers not to indulge conspiracy theories due to a lack of evidence, or, in many cases a mountain of evidence to the contrary, is not naive.

Seriously. It's like saying you're "naive" if you don't believe in the Loch Ness Monster.

 

[Löwenherz]

This right here.

To be an anti conspiracy theorist, you essentially have to take everything at face value as the truth. An anti conspiracy theorist is just as naive as a full on conspiracy theorist. They're just at opposite ends of the spectrum.

No, you simply have to subscribe to a few principles:
- Occam’s Razor is sound
- Logical fallacies are real
- Dunning-Kruger is a curse
- Vibes are not truth
- Claims need evidence
- Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.

That said, I think it’s total BS the Mavs got the #1 pick. Not because I think it’s a conspiracy; I just think it sucks.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I actually think it would be cool to see the process - it doesn't have to be live; it could be like an "extra" on the NBA app or something. It's basically just like checking your lottery numbers every Thursday.

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing | NBA.com

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing

www.nba.com

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

I actually think it would be cool to see the process - it doesn't have to be live; it could be like an "extra" on the NBA app or something. It's basically just like checking your lottery numbers every Thursday.

It's actually viewable on NBA.com after the fact, as the Capt. has pointed out.
It just now has to be shown live on whichever network decides to carry it in the future, and not be shown as an extra on NBA.com.

 

[est.1999]

The reason first round is best of 7 is because the league was unhappy with top seeds being upset and wanted less of it.

It was changed in the middle of the 03-04 season if I remember correctly because the lakers started off slow and they knew they wouldn’t have home court. Could have been the year before also.

 

[ESP47]

Yeah, that's not really how it works. Somebody who prefers not to indulge conspiracy theories due to a lack of evidence, or, in many cases a mountain of evidence to the contrary, is not naive. They just rely on standards of proof to aid them in constructing their worldview. In this case, the burden of proof falls to the conspiracy theorist, who of course can provide no proof, and thus relies on the logical fallacy that correlation = causation. The Mavericks winning the draft lottery in spite of their slim chance of doing so does not itself suggest a conspiracy. Does it look bad for the NBA? Yes, but only because sports fans are emotional creatures more than they are logical creatures.

There isn't a person on this board that can provide proof of anything behind the scenes that involves the NBA. In most cases, "evidence" is merely what the media, government, or in this case, the NBA itself, tells you. All of the former lie, have lied in the past and will lie in the future.

If you yourself cannot prove that the NBA doesn't manipulate the lottery and I cannot prove that they do and the only evidence is the NBA telling us that they don't, does that mean you are right because you have evidence of the NBA saying they aren't manipulating it?

Some funny stuff has happened. DAL traded one of the best players in the league to the NBA's favorite team (despite them claiming to not be biased) without even so much as contacting another team to see if a better deal was on the table. Then DAL goes into the lottery with slightly less than 1 in 50 chance of winning the lottery and they win it. All of that together is incredibly suspicious. All of it is within the realm of possibility as well.

I don't personally have enough proof to believe in it one way or another. The NBA has a lot to lose if they get caught manipulating their lottery but they also have nothing to lose by providing transparency into the lottery and they've never done that from what I've seen. They have us in a spot where we merely have to go off their word. I find that suspicious. I don't consider the word from liars to be evidence. If you do, then that's what I consider to be naive.

 

[Padrino]

There isn't a person on this board that can provide proof of anything behind the scenes that involves the NBA. In most cases, "evidence" is merely what the media, government, or in this case, the NBA itself, tells you. All of the former lie, have lied in the past and will lie in the future.

If you yourself cannot prove that the NBA doesn't manipulate the lottery and I cannot prove that they do and the only evidence is the NBA telling us that they don't, does that mean you are right because you have evidence of the NBA saying they aren't manipulating it?

Some funny stuff has happened. DAL traded one of the best players in the league to the NBA's favorite team (despite them claiming to not be biased) without even so much as contacting another team to see if a better deal was on the table. Then DAL goes into the lottery with slightly less than 1 in 50 chance of winning the lottery and they win it. All of that together is incredibly suspicious. All of it is within the realm of possibility as well.

I don't personally have enough proof to believe in it one way or another. The NBA has a lot to lose if they get caught manipulating their lottery but they also have nothing to lose by providing transparency into the lottery and they've never done that from what I've seen. They have us in a spot where we merely have to go off their word. I find' that suspicious. I don't consider the word from liars to be evidence. If you do, then that's what I consider to be naive.

Nope. It doesn't mean that I'm right. It just means that, in lieu of evidence to the contrary, I'm disinclined to believe a conspiracy theory simply because the circumstances that have given rise to that theory seem suspicious to some. And it doesn't make me or others naive for acknowledging that luck is with the opposition from time to time. After all, it wouldn't be a lottery if the ping pong ball combinations didn't occasionally pan out for the undeserving. Ultimately, the principles @Löwenherz listed above are instructive. Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.