Draft Lotto Thread (2025 edition)

[KingsFanSince85]

I don't disagree, but all I can do about that is chuckle to myself, and keep it moving. Like I've said before, the thing about conspiracy theorists is that they can't be reasoned out of believing in the conspiracy, because anything that contradicts the conspiracy is just "proof" that they're trying to "cover up" the conspiracy.

I agree with your point, but will add that the same logic can be applied to anti-conspiracy theorists. People see, or don't see, whatever they want to see.

Everything isn't a conspiracy. But it's also silly to believe that conspiracies never or rarely exist.

Like many things, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

 

[mdme]

Pelicans also got the first pick after they gave the lakers AD I’m sure that’s a coincidence

Will we get the #1 next year if we give them Sabonis?

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

Will we get the #1 next year if we give them Sabonis?

No.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

The players have always been very adamantly against a hard salary cap. Your proposal would make things worse for most of the league for two reasons:

1) The total pool of money would be effectively decreased - because teams would not be able to spend over the cap
2) The very best players would eat up even higher percentages of the cap, leaving less overall money for anybody not in the, say, top 10 players

Hard cap has always been a no-go for the NBAPA. Hard cap with no individual salary restrictions would be even worse. Can you imagine LeBron and Luka and Giannis trying to sell it to the rest of the players? "OK, see, we get that all of the rest of you will see your salaries tank, but WE'RE going to make a lot more money!"

And yet players agreed to this new cap that squeezed out the middle class.

I think without having a maximum, but having a hard cap - and lets say that hard cap is what is what is nearly an effective hard cap right now - the second apron - players won't be able to demand a max contract if they are that good, which means they'll probably end up with less because they'll have to fight for it rather than just "give me the max". It's at least possible without that it restores some order to the middle class?

At least agents may actually have to do their jobs and earn their percentages.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I agree with your point, but will add that the same logic can be applied to anti-conspiracy theorists.

No it can't. That makes as much sense as the people who say that atheism is a "religious belief" that there is no god.

People see, or don't see, whatever they want to see.

Everything isn't a conspiracy. But it's also silly to believe that conspiracies never or rarely exist.

Believing in conspiracy theories requires you to 1) "read between the lines" to see subtext where there may or may not be any, and 2) ascribe motives to that subtext for which there is no evidence. For your thesis to be accurate, it would require that people who don't believe in conspiracy theories to deny the existence of something for which there is clear and corroborative evidence, with repeatable results. But that's not what's happening. The most accurate thing that you can say about people who don't believe in conspiracy theories is that they reject the notion that correlation equals causation. A great American philosopher once said, never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity.

Being a conspiracy theorist basically requires you to believe that there's no such thing as incompetence, and that random chance doesn't exist, either. I do not think that the inverse can be correctly stated about people who don't believe in them.

 

[The_Jamal]

I will just cite this as another reason to get rid of all lottery odds and do a straight up draw.

Teams pulling this crap also upset the competitive balance of the standings of teams fighting for seeding. And it forces fans who haven't just quit on their team to root for losses.

Either something along these lines, or something like if you receive a top 5 pick in one season, you aren't eligible to be in the top 5 the next season. Would prevent the SAS essentially full restocking their team because of "luck" with a 1/4/2 picks in 3 consecutive years.

 

[Warhawk]

Another brilliant idea that the NBA can implement is to do what the NHL just did for their "NHL draft lottery". And that is to actually televise the entire thing, so everyone can see the ping pong balls being drawn.

Honestly, I don't "mind" the way the NBA draft lottery is configured; It truly is the most fair way to determine the final draft order.

Taking a page from the NHL, and televising the actual process itself, in my honest opinion, will go a long way in enlisting trust in the fans that the system is, in fact, not rigged.

The NBA's lottery is so thoroughly complex they can't televise the drawing I don't think. It would probably look even more rigged if they did!

That's why I've been advocating a one ball/one pull by team reps type of solution that can't be fudged if it must continue.

Wait, what? The NBA does the same thing that the NHL does for the most part. 14 numbered ping pong balls in a machine, 4 ping pong balls drawn for each pick 1-4. 1000 possible combinations divvied up to all the lottery teams. Do I have that wrong?

And 0 transparency.

You can watch the whole thing here, if you like. They post the video after the announcements are made.

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing | NBA.com

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing

www.nba.com

 

[Spike]

Either something along these lines, or something like if you receive a top 5 pick in one season, you aren't eligible to be in the top 5 the next season. Would prevent the SAS essentially full restocking their team because of "luck" with a 1/4/2 picks in 3 consecutive years.

The Rockies are currently staring this right in the eye. I'm a fan of it.

 

[whitechocolate]

Where's IfAt1st?

 

[Joshyjosh31]

Listening Zach Lowe podcast right now. Before the last lottery ball was drawn we still had an opportunity for the first overall pick.

Man! There’s an alternative universe where we leave the off season with Flagg and Trae Young

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

You can watch the whole thing here, if you like. They post the video after the announcements are made.

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing | NBA.com

2025 Draft Lottery: Watch the full drawing

www.nba.com

Watching it after the fact is vastly different than watching it live, though. I'd much rather they show the actual drawing live, just like the NHL just did this year.

 

[Warhawk]

Watching it after the fact is vastly different than watching it live, though. I'd much rather they show the actual drawing live, just like the NHL just did this year.

I can understand that. But for those that say there's no transparency, etc., it is indeed viewable.

 

[ockingsfan]

Yes, this actually makes sense that our ball sequences were basically the same as Dallas' ball sequences. C'est la vie.

If this was a random lottery, it wouldn’t really make sense that our numbers on our ticket is sequential to the team next to us. Shouldn’t all the lottery numbers on the tickets be just random combinations? I mean when you go get a quick pick lottery ticket, the machine doesn’t spit out sequential numbers to the person who bought the ticket in front of you. Personally, it would seem odd / suspicious if the lottery tickets numbers were sequential here.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If this was a random lottery, it wouldn’t really make sense that our numbers on our ticket is sequential to the team next to us. Shouldn’t all the lottery numbers on the tickets be just random combinations? I mean when you go get a quick pick lottery ticket, the machine doesn’t spit out sequential numbers to the person who bought the ticket in front of you. Personally, it would seem odd / suspicious if the lottery tickets numbers were sequential here.

Its some formula that none of us thoroughly understand. I think that's why it can't be a made for tv event and needs tweaks but I'm totally fine just moving in a completely new direction that scraps the idea of sending the best players to the worst teams. Some teams (possibly including us, but mostly thinking of Charlotte and Washington, possibly Philly without doing a 5 year+ process, or the teams that land can't miss prospects) are just hopeless no matter who they draft. I can't think of any player besides Cousins we've drafted the last 25+ years that is going to stand out on a dogpoopoo team.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

If this was a random lottery, it wouldn’t really make sense that our numbers on our ticket is sequential to the team next to us. Shouldn’t all the lottery numbers on the tickets be just random combinations? I mean when you go get a quick pick lottery ticket, the machine doesn’t spit out sequential numbers to the person who bought the ticket in front of you. Personally, it would seem odd / suspicious if the lottery tickets numbers were sequential here.

The NBA assigns numbers to teams sequentially.

Thus, Utah would have gotten:
1-2-3-4
1-2-3-5
...
1-4-7-9

Washington would have gotten:
1-4-7-10
...
1-10-12-13

And so on. Without iterating everybody else in between, Dallas would be given:
7-9-10-14
to
8-9-10-11

And we were given:
8-11-12-14
to
9-10-12-14

The first draw was 10-14-11...and then...7, which when put in order is 7-10-11-14 (one of Dallas! Hey I did that all correct!) But 9-10-11-14 was one of our combos, and 9 could have come up as the last ball. Had 8 come up, the pick would have gone to Chicago. Had either 12 or 13 come up, the pick would have gone to San Antonio via Atlanta. If a 1 came up it would have gone to Washington. 2-6...I'm not going to calculate out. But you get the drift.

I don't see what is odd or suspicious about this. The odds of winning are the exact same whether sequences are given out in order or randomly, but it is much easier to pick out the winner off of the big board when they are given out in order.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Its some formula that none of us thoroughly understand. I think that's why it can't be a made for tv event and needs tweaks but I'm totally fine just moving in a completely new direction that scraps the idea of sending the best players to the worst teams. Some teams (possibly including us, but mostly thinking of Charlotte and Washington, possibly Philly without doing a 5 year+ process, or the teams that land can't miss prospects) are just hopeless no matter who they draft. I can't think of any player besides Cousins we've drafted the last 25+ years that is going to stand out on a dogpoopoo team.

"None of us"

While I was typing all of that!

 

[Section 101]

Its some formula that none of us thoroughly understand. I think that's why it can't be a made for tv event and needs tweaks but I'm totally fine just moving in a completely new direction that scraps the idea of sending the best players to the worst teams. Some teams (possibly including us, but mostly thinking of Charlotte and Washington, possibly Philly without doing a 5 year+ process, or the teams that land can't miss prospects) are just hopeless no matter who they draft. I can't think of any player besides Cousins we've drafted the last 25+ years that is going to stand out on a dogpoopoo team.

The need to make the winner of the lotto be not eligible for 3 years, 2 years for 2nd and 1 year for 3rd. Traded picks would still go through the lotto process, but only if they are conveying otherwise draw again. This would also reduce incentive for the lotto protections and make trading picks after winning the lotto to improve teams more viable.

 

[coolhandluke]

"None of us"

While I was typing all of that!

Should have said "none of us normal people"