Does Thabeet make sense now?

[kpm308]

Specifically, if our first rounder falls out of the top 4-5, would we be better off sending it over to Memphis for Thabeet?

The rumor of Thabeet and Mayo for Ellis may mean that the Grizzlies are willing to move Thabeet. With the way Gasol has broken out I would think they would be open to a swap like this.

With the way the draft is looking, I would say Wall and Turner are just too good to pass on, regardless of fit. Not sold on Favors, but he may also fall into that category. The best fit in the draft for us looks to be Cousins, so may take him. After that, there's not really anyone with a huge upside or a good fit for the team that excites me at all. A couple undersized PF's who won't be able to play at the C, a couple tweener SF/PFs, a couple Euro's who don't fit the direction the team is headed, and then a couple guys who can play C in Aldrich and Monroe, both of which look to be solid, but I don't think you are looking at a huge upside with either of them.

With the way this team is right now, we have 8 guys who can play at the PF spot and 8 guys that can play SF, so I just don't see how there will be room for any more guys who can play only as a Forward. Beno is actually the only player on the roster who can't play meaningful minutes as a forward. Meanwhile we only have 2 guys who aren't severely undersized at the C spot, and only 2 PGs. The SG position should be covered although there may be room for someone else there as well. In this draft, after Wall, Turner, and possibly Wesley Johnson, there no guards expected to go in the top ten. Looking at all the options in the draft, I think that Thabeet would help us more immediately as well as have more upside in bringing what this team needs than anyone in the draft.

Thabeet hasn't produced like most of the lottery rookies this year, but no one really expected him to this year, he was known as a project coming in. His per minute stats look very good though, and there is no question that his shotblocking has translated to the NBA. I wasn't crazy about him in the draft because of what else was there and I didn't think a 17 win team had much business drafting a project when we needed help in so many other areas. Now this team is in a much different position with a talented young core. We now have a perfect situation to bring in Thabeet and let him play 10-15 minutes a night at first with plenty of minutes available for him as he gets better. If he eventually becomes a defensive anchor this team would have the pieces in place to be an absolute powerhouse defensively.

I think if Memphis would take a top ten pick for him, barring the top 1-4 guys being available to us, the potential of what Thabeet could do for this team outweighs anyone we could pick up in the draft.

 

[Bricklayer]

That's a clever suggestion.

Kind of like my Oden thing, when you are dealing with a player as young as Thabeet, trading your draft pick for him is pretty much the same thing as drafting him this year. So yeah, if Thabeet had stayed in school an extra year, and was coming out this year, I would absolutely consider him one of the possibles with our pick. A Top 10 pick and one of the ones that best fit our needs. If Memphis was open to such a deal, it would actually be a clever thing for us to hold in our back pockets -- if nobody was there when we picked that we liked, swing the pick to Memphis and "draft" Thabeet instead.

We need a big young defensive anchor inside. We've got free agency money to take care of our other need maybe -- maybe find another star. But there really aren't that many big defensive centers in the free agency crop (the best of them is Brendan Haywood, who just got traded to the Mavs, and Cuban would likely match any reasonable offer). So we need to get our big young defensive anchor elsewhere. And like I say, turning our pick into Thabeet might be a clever way to go about it.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

That's a clever suggestion.

Kind of like my Oden thing, when you are dealing with a player as young as Thabeet, trading your draft pick for him is pretty much the same thing as drafting him this year. So yeah, if Thabeet had stayed in school an extra year, and was coming out this year, I would absolutely consider him one of the possibles with our pick. A Top 10 pick and one of the ones that best fit our needs. If Memphis was open to such a deal, it would actually be a clever thing for us to hold in our back pockets -- if nobody was there when we picked that we liked, swing the pick to Memphis and "draft" Thabeet instead.

We need a big young defensive anchor inside. We've got free agency money to take care of our other need maybe -- maybe find another star. But there really aren't that many big defensive centers in the free agency crop (the best of them is Brendan Haywood, who just got traded to the Mavs, and Cuban would likely match any reasonable offer). So we need to get our big young defensive anchor elsewhere. And like I say, turning our pick into Thabeet might be a clever way to go about it.

Makes sense. I wouldn't want to waste an early pick on him like last year, but if we get 6-10, could make sense. Especially if the Griz feel they need more depth at other positions like PG (they were rumored to be shopping Conley) or SG/SF if they are concerned Gay will leave.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Actually, a slightly different thought. Instead of sacrificing a top 10 pick, I wonder if we might be able to sacrifice our cap space and potentially a smaller asset (like a 2nd round pick).

The Griz are playing well right now and if they want to resign Gay, but don't want to go to far over the cap, we could essentially offer to take 5 million dollars off their cap for next to nothing. I'm not sure how the Griz feel about Thabeet right now, but if they are questioning him or feel set in the front court (or at least want more of a vet up front to make a push while Randolph is still playing at a high level) this would make sense for both sides.

 

[kingsnation]

No.

 

[Spike]

Absolutely!

 

[Smills91]

Could he make sense....sure, maybe....theoretically, yes. Will he? I don't think so. I know for sure I wouldn't give up a lotto pick for the kid.

 

[fnordius]

1st-4th pick? Nope. 9th or 10th? Heck yeah!

 

[Gary]

No.

What he said.

 

[Prince_XY]

If Petrie can make this happen, I am surely going back believing he is a good GM. But knowing Petrie's choices of players and his seemingly clueless moves on what we needed on this team, a defensive center will not be on top of his list. If Thabeet shows a little bit of quality as a good passer and loves shooting outside, then maybe he woulld be a very good candidate to play center for Petrie in this team.

I think this is a very good idea and I would let go of that 2nd pick and up ( or Wall protected ) and sacrifice some of those capspace if needed. Oh, hell yeah! We don't know what we're going to get on those bigs in this coming draft anyways. Thabeet has been showing he can translate his shot blocking in the NBA now, so why go for some untested player in the coming draft still! We get Thabeet, the team will be balanced, and we're set to just reap the bountiful harvest in a couple of years.

Thanks OP for making me hope again for this Kings team.

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

Definitely. I'm not really up on par with the draft this year as with other years, but what I do know is that Thabeet's impact on the court this year has been greater than his numbers. I do think Memphis realizes his impact, it's just that with so many talented bigs (Gasol especially, Randolph, even Haddadi) it's tough to find someone playing time. But yeah, he's definitely an NBA player and an absolute disruptor, so I would be willing to make that sacrifice.

 

[est.1999]

Thabeet is garbage

 

[fnordius]

Interesting stat line so far.

Thabeet = 5.5 blocks per 48 minutes.
JT+Hawes+Donte+Brockman+Landry = combined 6.9 blocks per 48.

 

[dbfish]

I would consider a future #1. Say 2012 for Thabeet.

 

[Prince_XY]

Thabeet is garbage

Interesting stat line so far.

Thabeet = 5.5 blocks per 48 minutes.
JT+Hawes+Donte+Brockman+Landry = combined 6.9 blocks per 48.

Yeah, Thabeet is garbage.

 

[BMiller52]

1st-4th pick? Nope. 9th or 10th? Heck yeah!

Cosigned. He could fit really well with Landry and Brockman and JT.

 

[bajaden]

No! I'd trade a future, but nothing in the top ten this year. There's more to playing basketball than blocking shots. If he's that great, why preytell do you think they would be willing to move him. He's not garbage. Ok! But he's not capable of playing extended minutes right now. I'm not going to argue about it. But if you think this guy is worth a high draft pick right now, your wrong......

 

[bajaden]

I'd like to add a couple of more things to this Thabeet debate. While everyone foams at the mouth when looking at his projected 5.3 Blocks per 48 minutes stat. You might look at the 8.9 personal fouls per 48 minutes stat as well. If you think JT is a foul machine, wait till you get a look at Thabeet. Although he's averaging 10 minutes a game, that stat is decieving. His minutes have been declining since the beginning of the season. In his last three games he averaged 1 minute of playing time in one and 3 minutes of playing time in another. In the 1 minute of playing time he aquired 2 personal fouls. He shoots 65.6% at the rim, but from 10 feet, he shoots 14.3%. He's also a 59.6% freethrow shooter. He's a three second violation waiting to happen.

He can't defend on the perimiter at all. Quicker centers and PF's just put the ball on the floor and go around him. I'm not declaring him a bust. But he's far from ready to make an impact.

His hands rating, which is a stat that takes in all thats involved in ballhandling such as turnovers, assists etc. is 2.8%. To put that in prospective Thompson's hands rating is 8.3% and Hawes is 10.3%.

To futher put that in prospective here is a sampling of some others around the league.

Hands rating:

D. Howard: 4.1%
Pau Gasol: 14.8%
Lamar Odom: 16.7%
Bynum: 7.3%
Noah: 8.2%
Duncan: 15.9%

He has bad hands, clear and simple. I said so in college, and he hasn't improved. He is a walking, talking shotblocking, fouling, turnover machine. Yes he has potential, but he's going to take time. Once again, I'll remind everyone that he didn't start playing basketball until very late in his life. So he has a lot of catching up to do, if he can.

 

[Bricklayer]

I'd like to add a couple of more things to this Thabeet debate. While everyone foams at the mouth when looking at his projected 5.3 Blocks per 48 minutes stat. You might look at the 8.9 personal fouls per 48 minutes stat as well. If you think JT is a foul machine, wait till you get a look at Thabeet. Although he's averaging 10 minutes a game, that stat is decieving. His minutes have been declining since the beginning of the season. In his last three games he averaged 1 minute of playing time in one and 3 minutes of playing time in another. In the 1 minute of playing time he aquired 2 personal fouls. He shoots 65.6% at the rim, but from 10 feet, he shoots 14.3%. He's also a 59.6% freethrow shooter. He's a three second violation waiting to happen.

He can't defend on the perimiter at all. Quicker centers and PF's just put the ball on the floor and go around him. I'm not declaring him a bust. But he's far from ready to make an impact.

His hands rating, which is a stat that takes in all thats involved in ballhandling such as turnovers, assists etc. is 2.8%. To put that in prospective Thompson's hands rating is 8.3% and Hawes is 10.3%.

To futher put that in prospective here is a sampling of some others around the league.

Hands rating:

D. Howard: 4.1%
Pau Gasol: 14.8%
Lamar Odom: 16.7%
Bynum: 7.3%
Noah: 8.2%
Duncan: 15.9%

He has bad hands, clear and simple. I said so in college, and he hasn't improved. He is a walking, talking shotblocking, fouling, turnover machine. Yes he has potential, but he's going to take time. Once again, I'll remind everyone that he didn't start playing basketball until very late in his life. So he has a lot of catching up to do, if he can.

That's considerably weak.

Hands rating. Oh noes! Not a bad hands rating!

Who the hell cares about a non-scoring roleplaying shotblocker's hands rating? As a primary stat? Were we planning on running offense through him? Should we see if he has a crossover?

And fouls? Aside form being very common for a young shotblocking type, especially one coming in in short minutes and tryng to impress everytime, who are we talking about again here? Were we planning on playing Thabeet 40min a night, as a rookie, and I wasn't told?

Not a stat he's put up in his short minutes that would disqualify him as a rotation shotblocker/rebounder. And yes I included rebounder because he's done a solid job in those limited minutes. In desperate moments we've used Jon Brockman, Kenny Thomas, Sean May, and Hilton Armstrong at times this year. We survived. You aren't going to convince me sticking a 7'3" prolific shotblcoker in there, who also isn't going to handle or score, is somehow more limiting than any of the above. And on the other end of the court he is a marvel at the single weakest point we have as a team.

Hands rating/block rating/rebound rating:
Dampier 2.3hnd 7.3blk 31.7reb
Thanbeet 2.8hnd 17.0blk 28.1reb
Haywood 3.8hnd 7.2blk 32.0reb

(and no I have no real idea how they compute those sorts of stupid combo stats, they were just all there and easily accessible so I used them). Are Dampier+Haywood unplayable? Except as platoon centers on a championship caliber team I mean? Dallas is in trouble.

 

[Bricklayer]

Damn, Boston is screwed too:

Perkins 2.9hnd 8.9blk 30.1reb
Thabeet 2.8hnd 17.0blk 28.1reb


That's what we're talking about here. Not bleeping Vlade Divac. Purebred interior defender. Why people have fought that so hard in Thabeet's case I do not know. There certianly seems to have been some double standard applied with him.

 

[Superman]

If you want a shot blocker, nothing wrong with Thabeet. I don't think he'd be worth a top ten pick, though. Outside of being a deterrent around the rim, he's pretty limited. I guess he's a decent rebounder, as he should be at 7'3". But I would absolutely hate having a big man wide open in the middle who can't handle the ball well enough to get easy buckets. Or if he's a liability in pick and roll defense, which I think Thabeet is, not only would he be inadequate on the perimeter, but he'd be away from the basket and couldn't be a shot blocker. These are the reasons he's only playing 10 minutes a game right now. Essentially using a lottery pick on a limited shot blocker who is probably going to be a career backup is a bit much.

 

[Superman]

Damn, Boston is screwed too:

Perkins 2.9hnd 8.9blk 30.1reb
Thabeet 2.8hnd 17.0blk 28.1reb


That's what we're talking about here. Not bleeping Vlade Divac. Purebred interior defender. Why people have fought that so hard in Thabeet's case I do not know. There certianly seems to have been some double standard applied with him.

Perkins was a late first rounder, not a lottery pick.

 

[Rookie]

Thabeet is garbage

What make you said that? He barely even play in the NBA.

A young 7-3 center that play hard in the post is the missing piece the Kings needed. Unless you think Hawes is good enough. I gamble on Hawes age but wouldn't mind having another one.

Anyone that knows more about college centers that could do a comparison on the top college bigs vs Thatbeet would be appreciated.

 

[Bricklayer]

Perkins was a late first rounder, not a lottery pick.

Do you want to take any guess on what Dikembe's hands rating would have been?

And Ed Davis or Cole Aldrich will do well to turn out as well as Perkins.

 

[Bricklayer]

These are the reasons he's only playing 10 minutes a game right now.

The primary reason is much simpler: Marc Gasol. Played 36 min a night. never gets hurt. Too slow to play PF. Obviously leaves a grand total of about 12 min a night for a backup at his position.

Thabeet is nowhere near perfect nor polished, but using his minutes as eveidence of anything on a team with a starting frontline that averages 36pts and 21rebs doesn't compute.

 

[NME]

Perkins was a late first rounder, not a lottery pick.

Where they were drafted has no bearing on their worth in a trade today. I'll bet that some teams would give up a lottery pick for Perkins, bad hands rating notwithstanding.

 

[Superman]

Do you want to take any guess on what Dikembe's hands rating would have been?

I don't really care about hands ratings. A lot of these new "stats" are hard to quantify. But if you're going to tell me that Thabeet will be as good as Mutombo was (and I'm talking Denver/Atlanta Mutombo, not Houston Mutombo), I'll still have a couple of reservations about his overall game, and I'd still wonder about giving up a lottery pick for him. And really, Mutombo is the ceiling for Thabeet. A 12-15 point, 10-12 rebound, 3.5 block per game player, for about ten years. Nothing wrong with that, and we know how much of an impact Mount Mutombo was in his prime, but it's not quite what you look for out of a top ten pick.

And that's my primary issue: Do you want to give up a top ten pick on a player you hope will one day be as good as Dikembe Mutombo? I think it's a high price to pay, especially when you have other holes in your lineup. Not that I wouldn't be willing, but I'd have to be confident that the player is going to improve enough to be an impact player for many years. I don't have that confidence in Thabeet.

And Ed Davis or Cole Aldrich will do well to turn out as well as Perkins.

And if Kendrick Perkins were a top ten pick, we'd be talking about how he hasn't lived up to expectations. Here, in his 7th year, he's barely an 11/8/2 guy for a championship contender, which is fine, but that's not what you're looking for out of a lottery pick.

 

[Superman]

Where they were drafted has no bearing on their worth in a trade today. I'll bet that some teams would give up a lottery pick for Perkins, bad hands rating notwithstanding.

Their worth today? Well, you're talking about a seven year veteran from a championship team. I think Kendrick Perkins fits in well with the Celtics blue-collar style, but he isn't worth a lottery pick to anyone but the Celtics, really. Beyond that, you KNOW what Perkins is. You'd be hoping with Thabeet.

 

[NME]

And if Kendrick Perkins were a top ten pick, we'd be talking about how he hasn't lived up to expectations. Here, in his 7th year, he's barely an 11/8/2 guy for a championship contender, which is fine, but that's not what you're looking for out of a lottery pick.

You really think so? If he were a top three pick, then yes. But a guy who puts up 11/8/2 in under 30 minutes and is one of those rare big men who actually plays solid individual post defense in addition to helping is more than a lot of top ten picks turn out to be.

 

[Superman]

The primary reason is much simpler: Marc Gasol. Played 36 min a night. never gets hurt. Too slow to play PF. Obviously leaves a grand total of about 12 min a night for a backup at his position.

Thabeet is nowhere near perfect nor polished, but using his minutes as eveidence of anything on a team with a starting frontline that averages 36pts and 21rebs doesn't compute.

I think you find a way to get a really good shot blocker into the game for more than ten minutes. He's still a rookie, and that's got something to do with it, of course. And like you said, the Grizzlies are doing okay with Randolph and Gasol playing the bulk of the minutes. But if they were eager to get him on the floor, surely they'd find a way to expound on his huge per/48 numbers if they thought he'd be able to contribute.