sidney
Starter
I wouldn't even do 10 for 15+20, let alone take a bad contract back on top of it.
Dennis Smith Jr.:
- Thread starter bajaden
- Start date
I wouldn't even do 10 for 15+20, let alone take a bad contract back on top of it.
I agree that there is quality at #15 and #20, but that trade may be a pretty major overpay on our part. Evan Turner's contract, for instance, is about $55M over three years.
I'm not sure that I'm 100% on board with 538.com's numbers (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-is-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery-really-worth/) but they would suggest that the approximate values of the draft picks in question are #10 ($14.75M), #15 ($11.4M), #20 ($10.15M). So our "cost" here would be just short of $70M and our gain would be about $22.5M. Not only are we basically $37.5M in the hole for a trade like that, but Portland (due to not having to pay luxury tax on the Turner contract) could push their savings up to well over $100M if they remain in the tax for those three years. So, in essence, they are reaming us.
There's a way to make a trade like this a win-win. We likely have dead cap space below the salary minimum, and instead of taking that money and lighting it on fire (OK, in reality it would get distributed among our own players, but the team can't keep it) we can apply some of it to a bad contract in exchange for actual value. On their side, Portland would save more money than we would take on due to the luxury tax savings, which means that by dumping salary they essentially create a pile of money out of nothing (in reality, they are taking the money from the other teams in the league who would get luxury tax payouts). If we're taking on the salary, we should split that value with them, not give it all to them and then some. If you were to look to get "fair value" out of eating Evan Turner's contract, you're probably more looking at us KEEPING #10, as well as picking up at the minimum #15 and an unprotected 2019 first rounder, as well as swap rights to their 2018 first rounder. And even then we are probably letting them off the hook easy. If we might be saving them $100M, while paying out $55M ourselves and hurting our cap flexibility for three years, we've got to make them PAY.
Mike
Bench
It depends on who that bad contract is. For instance they have money tied up in Moe Harkless (SF), Evan Turner (SG/SF) and Allen Crabbe (SG/SF). If we acquired one of them they could feasibly hold down the SF spot if we don't draft Jackson, Tatum or Isaac fifth overall. Harkless has the most reasonable contract, though he's not much of an offensive threat. Crabbe is expensive but he's a pretty good shooter and his 3pt shooting could help our lineup. Ok these contracts run for another three years with no options, but are we going to compete for big name free agents during that time? Unlikely. Do we have any of our own to sign to big money extensions? Not yet. The closest is WCS and that's a debatable one. By the end of their contract we should be competing for a play off spot if we've drafted well and our players have developed. At that point we can re-sign them or move on from that as the stopgap. Heck, if we've drafted Isaac, a player that needs time to develop, adding one of these forwards gives us the opportunity to bring him on along with patience rather than throwing him into the fire.
Pick wise the 15 and 20 pick could get us two decent players for the bench. Perhaps even we take a punt on someone and maybe they turn into a starter. The likes of TJ Leaf, Terrance Ferguson, DJ Wilson, Jarrett Allen, John Collins, Donovan Mitchell, Harry Giles (etc) could all be available in that region. Adding them plus getting a veteran SF might be appealing if that fifth pick is Smith or Fox.
roasthawg
Starter
I would, that could net us og or Semi and Juwan Evans. Way better than any guy we'll get at ten alone.
Blob
Starter
Gee whiz you'd think if there was a possibility we were gonna draft the kid he would come to SAC for a workout? After all it is only a hour flight from Los Angeles! Wouldn't he just take the short trip if the invitation was extended and accepted? I do NOT think he would refuse visit. I do think the Kings are more interested in drafting guys who defend. I commend Vlade and Crew to take a hard pass on him at #5 and #10. He's the exact type of player we do NOT need along with flawed and overrated Tatum.
upinsmoke
All-Star
I have serious doubts about OG being on the board at #15. I would offer to take Leonard off Portland's books for 20 but that's where negotiations break down.
roasthawg
Starter
I'd do that as well... 20 gets us Juwan. Might get lucky and get semi at #34. Og at #10. A lot of young talent there.
I really hope he'll come down for a workout. However, last year Skal, Papagiannis, and Malachi didn't come workout for us either.
roasthawg
Starter
The closer we get to the draft the more I'm focusing on dsj. He's the guy I want, explosive athlete with great handles and a shot. Great in the pnr and great in transition... Perfect guy to lead this team offensively.
Blob
Starter
He's not even close as good at getting to the rim as De'Aaron Fox. I assess the chances of us drafting Smith to be 0% so I don't think Kings fans should get too attached to him unless they plan to root for the opponent.
Kingsfan23
All-Star
Yes, the Kings are still the black sheep organization, and as such he could have spurned an invite
upinsmoke
All-Star
Does that fit your agenda so you can continue to be the black sheep of KF?
Blob
Starter
I don't think Smith Jr spurned an invite. I think we spurned him. The reason no one wanted to play for SAC for many years is (1) we had an outdated and dilapidated arena and (2) more importantly we had a 7 year soap opera with unnecessary drama that distracted and inhibited players from achieving success. Now we have a state of the art arena and training facility. Boogie is (thankfully) gone. Plus we have upgraded front office and coaching with more stability and competence. Our appeal to has changed dramatically since the All-Star break. Don't believe Chad Fraud.
I don't think Smith Jr spurned an invite. I think we spurned him. The reason no one wanted to play for SAC for many years is (1) we had an outdated and dilapidated arena and (2) more importantly we had a 7 year soap opera with unnecessary drama that distracted and inhibited players from achieving success. Now we have a state of the art arena and training facility. Boogie is (thankfully) gone. Plus we have upgraded front office and coaching with more stability and competence. Our appeal to has changed dramatically since the All-Star break. Don't believe Chad Fraud.
The Kings also haven't had in Jonathan Isaac for a workout while he's visited PHX twice. To my knowledge Jackson, Tatum, Monk, and Markkanen also haven't been in. Ntilikina too but I believe he's still playing and not doing any predraft workouts for teams.
Blob
Starter
I am saddened and distressed by this.
What is our viable backup plan if Fox goes Top 4? In my mind, Isaac should be our one and ONLY backup plan if the Top 4 goes as follows:(1) Celts - Fultz
(2) Lakers - Fox
(3) 76ers - Jackson (Ball)
(4) Suns - Ball (Jackson)
(5) Kings -
This order is legitimate possibility if you are Magic and you are decreasingly dissatisfied with prospect of D'Angelo running your team and increasingly concerned with Lonzo overall skills. Magic is going to be an asset accumulation mode next 12-18 months with targets on Boogie and George to go with scorers like Randle and Ingram and maybe Russell and Clarkson if they stick around. Ball is the guy to disperse the rock and keep these guys happy.
But it is not as if Fox would make them unhappy! In fact the attention that Fox demands with quickness and scoring threat may make these scorers even happier than Ball. I know I would take Fox over Ball in a heartbeat at #2. But other variables including the hometown effect and Magic-like unselfishness of Ball's playing style gives slight edge to Ball at #2. It is only slight edge, hence our need to consider Isaac strongly at #4 and bring him to SAC for workout.
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You're wrong Blob. Just to be stingy as hell, Fox finishes at the rim 64.2%, while DSJ is at 64.9%. DSJ all the way!He's not even close as good at getting to the rim as De'Aaron Fox. I assess the chances of us drafting Smith to be 0% so I don't think Kings fans should get too attached to him unless they plan to root for the opponent.
I am saddened and distressed by this.
(1) Celts - Fultz
(2) Lakers - Fox
(3) 76ers - Jackson
(4) Suns - Ball
(5) Kings -
This order is legitimate possibility if you are Magic and you are decreasingly dissatisfied with prospect of D'Angelo running your team and increasingly concerned with Lonzo overall skills. Magic is going to be an asset accumulation mode next 12-18 months with targets on Boogie and George to go with scorers like Randle and Ingram and maybe Russell and Clarkson if they stick around. Ball is the guy to disperse the rock and keep these guys happy.
But it is not as if Fox would make them unhappy! In fact the attention that Fox demands with quickness and scoring threat may make these scorers even happier than Ball. I know I would take Fox over Ball in a heartbeat at #2. But other variables including the hometown effect and Magic-like unselfishness of Ball's playing style gives slight edge to Ball at #2. It is only slight edge, hence our need to consider Isaac strongly at #4 and bring him to SAC for workout.
I think it's much more likely that the Lakers take Jackson at #2 (assuming Fultz doesn't fall past Boston) and I would think it would be a near lock that the Sixers take Ball.
So it's going to come down to what the Suns want. I think Jackson is #1 on their board but I think Isaac and Tatum are options 2&3. Based on who they've worked out it seems like they want a SF.
upinsmoke
All-Star
Sacramento hosted a Jackson workout where a few other teams attended.
macadocious
Starter
Have the Kings seen a DSJ workout yet?
Blob
Starter
You're wrong Blob. Just to be stingy as hell, Fox finishes at the rim 64.2%, while DSJ is at 64.9%. DSJ all the way!
Well that 0.7% settles it then!
Actually if you refer to the table in the other thread which I will repost here, you can see how much better and more efficient Fox is at getting to rim and converting in the half court. Smith does not possess the same ability to get by his man or finish at the rim with lower attempts and accuracy. The statistic you are citing, which I will take your word for, includes transition opportunities and assisted baskets. This table (including PGs drafted since 2012) reflects an ability of the PG to make things happen on his own against a set defense. Smith is pretty good. Fox is outstanding.
Genuinely shocked by these numbers. Is DSJ really only at 2.55 FGA per 40 at the rim? I've watched a lot of games, and that number would mean he only had about 2 FGA at the rim each game. However, I guess all of these numbers don't account for fouls drawn at the rim. 52% for DSJ seems awfully low, while 58% for Fultz is really high(eye tests tell you DSJ is a better salsher). Thanks though! I thought it would be closer, with DSJ as the winner. Fox uses his quickness better than any prospect in this classWell that 0.7% settles it then!
Actually if you refer to the table in the other thread which I will repost here, you can see how much better and more efficient Fox is at getting to rim and converting in the half court. Smith does not possess the same ability to get by his man or finish at the rim with lower attempts and accuracy. The statistic you are citing, which I will take your word for, includes transition opportunities and assisted baskets. This table (including PGs drafted since 2012) reflects an ability of the PG to make things happen on his own against a set defense. Smith is pretty good. Fox is outstanding.
View attachment 6744
No. DSJ has only worked out for Orlando(May 15th) and LA(June 10th). He met with the Knicks, and then met again with Orlando. It's been a quiet front for a lot of the top prospects.
Blob
Starter
2.55 FGA by Smith is unassisted FGA at the rim in the half-court. It excludes fast breaks and assisted baskets in HC. In other words it is gauge of a PG ability to breakdown his man in the half-court without the help of the teammates. Drives to the hoop that result in FTs are not FGAs technically which could distort the interpretation of the data slightly. In this case I don't think it does since Fox and Smith got to the FT line about equal # of times (5.9 FTA vs 6.3 FTA).
KingsFanSince85
All-Star
^^ among all those names not including Curry and Lillard, I'd take Malik Monk everyday and twice on Sunday (with regard to 3pt shooting).
I'm actually a bit surprised to see the number of attempts Lonzo Ball had from that range.
I'm actually a bit surprised to see the number of attempts Lonzo Ball had from that range.
I'm not. His odd shooting motion and lack of blow by ability means a lot of step back jumpers for Ball.
KingsFanSince85
All-Star
I get what your saying, but still surprised for a guy that's known as a playmaker first. Also, I'm not surprised at the number of college 3pt attempts, just the attempts that came well behind that line.
I'm starting to feel that Ball is going to slip and be available when the Kings are on the clock. I could see something like this happening:
BOS: Fultz
LAL: Jackson
PHI: Tatum or Isaac.
PHX: Isaac or Fox
If that happens, I don't really want Ball at all. I'd rather try to trade back if someone else wants Ball or another player or draft DSJ or Malik Monk.
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Interesting.
Either the Kings aren't interested or they are smoke screening hard.
If it was just Vlade I'd say no chance it's a ploy (Divac seems overly transparent for a GM) but with Perry on board there's some chance.
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