If Theus is so bad... why are analysts praising him for doing what he could with what he had in Sacramento? Stan Van Gundy, Marc Stein from ESPN.com, and Ric Bucher all praised Theus for what he did in Sacramento. If people think Theus micro-manages too much, the definition of micro-manager is Avery Johnson!!! Avery was blessed to have Dirk in his prime, along with flourishing players like Josh Howard and Devon Harris, not to mention the help of great players in the last hurrah's of their careers...Stackhouse, Jason Terry, etc. He doesn't have that kind of depth if he comes to Sac. Plus, his teams have a tendency to lose to teams with 1 great player and a bunch of Tito Jacksons (Miami, GS, & New Orleans).
Theus remains a guy on the edge. Could go either way with him. I can easily lay out scenarios where he is here 5 years, or scenarios (mostly centered around his enormous ego and ability to alienate) where he is gone by the All Star break next year. And so maybe he is a guy who could coach you to a WCF. Its possible. Then again, maybe he is a guy who is inherently flawed and self destructive.
The interesting thing about having an Avery Johsnon out there is that you KNOW he is capable of coaching a team to the Finals. You KNOW he is capable of winning 67 games with a team. Because he's done it. Not "we hope our guy might do that one day." Not "well maybe." He's actually been there. Which does not mean in any way that he's guaranteed of doing that every year (obviously), or guaranteed of doing that here. But it does mean that you KNOW he is capable of it. And that is hard to ignore. Well unless you are the Maloofs -- its the same thing they set aside when they ousted Rick. The only thing you did not 100% know with Rick is whether he could win a title (althgouh he has come so close that it seems clear that we're talking one ball bounce the other way and it happens). But you KNEW he could do everything else...because he had done it. You could win 60 with him. Win your division, get deep into the playoffs, reach the Finals. And KNOWING you had that capability out of your coach should have made everything else a little simpler. You simplify the equation, know the coach can get it done if the team is right, and just focus on personnel. Avery has less experience, but potentially offers the same sort of stability.
If we fail next year, is it the players? Is it the coach? You won't really know. Neither have proven they can win anything in the NBA. The axe probably falls on the coach in that case. So then what? Do you keep the players again to see how they do with yet ANOTHER coach? The problem is that you just are not sure about anything, and it leaves open too many possibilities. The attraction of a guy like Avery is that you could say, ok, we know if we put the right team in place for Avery, he will win 60 games for us. We did not win 60 games, so therefore let's change the team. And he would come with a contract and reputation giving him stability and authority in the locker room. Guys would know he would be there. Reggie pisses you off, you say "screw you Reggie", and if enough of the team does that he is lucky to even make it to the end of the season. Then as a player you get to start over with a new guy. But a young big name coach comes in, is given the keys, is going to be around for a long time, and suddenly he has long term authority, and you as a player now have to do your best to make it work, because he's going to be there.
Reggie is very likely to return, but you get a young coach with Avery's resume suddenly hitting the market, there are a LOT of advantages over the current situation. He has authority. He says "look guys, I know how to win", and guys have an actual reason to believe him, both as a coach and from his playing days. Reggie does not have to be a bad coach for there to be a potentially significant upside.