Bogdanovic’s ceiling
- Thread starter sactowndog
- Start date
Well I had a little bit of a look at basketball reference and his per 36 would be nearly 16 PPG which seems more reasonable, I've stated I can see him possibly be at 18 or 19 PPG and you seem to think he can top that which would indicate that he would have nearly a 10 PPG jump from his rookie season to his sophomore or junior season in the pros, which isn't impossible but not many players make that big of a jump in PPG. McCollum & Giannis are the exception not the norm.
Bogdanovic is a great pickup, IMO, and one of our best signings (and bets) in recent history.
Statistically, he's proven to be a very accurate scorer, shooting with accuracy at every area of the court, ranking in the top-third of wings except for at the rim, where he's in the 50th percentile (not bad, not great). He does not draw enough fouls while shooting, so he'll need to work on that skill over the offseason (hence his low FT volume). His assist % is in the top 85% of all wings, and his assist-to-usage rate is in the top 90%. Defensively, he's a good ball thief, but a below-average rebounder and shot blocker.
In regards to upside, I think he's somewhat limited by his average athleticism and older age, long-term, but if he stays healthy and maintains strength, I see a lot of potential in his passing, post-up moves, craftiness (drawing more fouls), and potentially rebounding (boxing out). He's more of a half-court player, so will need to find some chemistry with Fox, who's more of a transition PG and is learning the half-court game.
Keeping in mind it usually takes European players a season to adjust to the the NBA (schedule, style of play, 3P line), he's hit the ground running after a bit of an adjustment period early on (also while Joerger figured out rotations). If he stays heatlhy, I'd expect some nice statistical improvement for him next year (ie posting a 16+ PER), with some improvements in scoring, passing and FT volume (ie 16, 4 and 4 with 1.2 steals).
Statistically, he's proven to be a very accurate scorer, shooting with accuracy at every area of the court, ranking in the top-third of wings except for at the rim, where he's in the 50th percentile (not bad, not great). He does not draw enough fouls while shooting, so he'll need to work on that skill over the offseason (hence his low FT volume). His assist % is in the top 85% of all wings, and his assist-to-usage rate is in the top 90%. Defensively, he's a good ball thief, but a below-average rebounder and shot blocker.
In regards to upside, I think he's somewhat limited by his average athleticism and older age, long-term, but if he stays healthy and maintains strength, I see a lot of potential in his passing, post-up moves, craftiness (drawing more fouls), and potentially rebounding (boxing out). He's more of a half-court player, so will need to find some chemistry with Fox, who's more of a transition PG and is learning the half-court game.
Keeping in mind it usually takes European players a season to adjust to the the NBA (schedule, style of play, 3P line), he's hit the ground running after a bit of an adjustment period early on (also while Joerger figured out rotations). If he stays heatlhy, I'd expect some nice statistical improvement for him next year (ie posting a 16+ PER), with some improvements in scoring, passing and FT volume (ie 16, 4 and 4 with 1.2 steals).
I love how hes always under control, patient and aware on offense. He'd be incredible in the Spurs system. I feel like he'll put up good stats but stats don't tell the whole picture for Boggy. He's one of those glue players/leaders that unifies a team. And that's invaluable.
Hopefully he can have a Ginobili type of career. Ginobili came into the league at 25 aswell.
Hopefully he can have a Ginobili type of career. Ginobili came into the league at 25 aswell.
You act like his PPG actually means something?
27.7 MPG
12 PPG
3.3 APG
40% 3pt on 4 attempts/game
19.4% USG (way too low)
58% TS (Excellent)
18% AST (Excellent for a wing)
13.7% TOV (Fine if he can maintain this at 23+% USG)
+1.4 Ortg with him On court (Pretty tough to do on a terrible team)
For Reference, here's C.J McCollum normal ancilary stats this season:
36 MPG
21 PPG
4.0 APG
42% 3pt on 5.9 attempts/game
26.4% USG (where a #1 or 2 should be)
54% TS (Little low but fine-ish for a guy with his USG)
15.3% AST (Good for a wing)
8.6% TOV (Amazing for a wing player with his USG)
+1.4 Ortg with him On court (Low for "star" player on a good team)
How about Brad Beal? Universally accepted as a guy who took "the leap" this season, been fantastic for the Wizards:
36.7 MPG
23.5 PPG
4.6 APG
37% 3pt on 6.6 attempts/game
28.1% USG (where a #1 or 2 should be)
56% TS (solid for his USG rate)
21% AST (outstanding for a wing)
11.2% TOV (Outstanding for a wing)
+3.7 Ortg with him On court (very good, but also where it should be on a good team)
Here's your ceiling. I think Bogdan can be a quality #2 option on a playoff team and the numbers play that out this year. We gotta see if he can maintain with increased usage of course, but nothing about Bogdan's style of play/game leads me to think he can't put up this production at higher USG. Especially once he gets the benefit of learning the league and gaining experience like Beal and McCollum have. He's pretty much matching two players that are widely considered stars already, he just needs the damn ball more.
27.7 MPG
12 PPG
3.3 APG
40% 3pt on 4 attempts/game
19.4% USG (way too low)
58% TS (Excellent)
18% AST (Excellent for a wing)
13.7% TOV (Fine if he can maintain this at 23+% USG)
+1.4 Ortg with him On court (Pretty tough to do on a terrible team)
For Reference, here's C.J McCollum normal ancilary stats this season:
36 MPG
21 PPG
4.0 APG
42% 3pt on 5.9 attempts/game
26.4% USG (where a #1 or 2 should be)
54% TS (Little low but fine-ish for a guy with his USG)
15.3% AST (Good for a wing)
8.6% TOV (Amazing for a wing player with his USG)
+1.4 Ortg with him On court (Low for "star" player on a good team)
How about Brad Beal? Universally accepted as a guy who took "the leap" this season, been fantastic for the Wizards:
36.7 MPG
23.5 PPG
4.6 APG
37% 3pt on 6.6 attempts/game
28.1% USG (where a #1 or 2 should be)
56% TS (solid for his USG rate)
21% AST (outstanding for a wing)
11.2% TOV (Outstanding for a wing)
+3.7 Ortg with him On court (very good, but also where it should be on a good team)
Here's your ceiling. I think Bogdan can be a quality #2 option on a playoff team and the numbers play that out this year. We gotta see if he can maintain with increased usage of course, but nothing about Bogdan's style of play/game leads me to think he can't put up this production at higher USG. Especially once he gets the benefit of learning the league and gaining experience like Beal and McCollum have. He's pretty much matching two players that are widely considered stars already, he just needs the damn ball more.
some of you look too much into statistics, and less on a court.. if Bogdan wanted he could be easily on 25 ppg, he could be more aggresive, taking more shoots and get that stats.. but the thing is he does not want that, he will do what a team needs, because that is how he was raised.
when he was a kid he was pure scorer, but later his game evolved to being a team first type of player, that does not care about his stats and I never looked him through that.. for example if I want to make a competitive team, I would always take Bogdan over Jokic withouth thinking, although Jokic has much better stats.
that being said I do not expect Bogdan to be 22-25ppg player, as I think Kings will be more and more competitive from season to season, and Bogdan will play major role there, but as a part of a system.
so I think his ceiling will be important player in serious play off team.
when he was a kid he was pure scorer, but later his game evolved to being a team first type of player, that does not care about his stats and I never looked him through that.. for example if I want to make a competitive team, I would always take Bogdan over Jokic withouth thinking, although Jokic has much better stats.
that being said I do not expect Bogdan to be 22-25ppg player, as I think Kings will be more and more competitive from season to season, and Bogdan will play major role there, but as a part of a system.
so I think his ceiling will be important player in serious play off team.
I thought that sounded crazy, but I looked it up and the list is:
1. Zach Randolph
2. Zach Randolph
3. Zach Randolph
4. Buddy Hield
5. Zach Randolph
6. De'Aaron Fox
7. Zach Randolph
8. Bogdan Bogdanovic
But seriously, USG% is a rate stat and not a counting stat, so, for instance, the fact that Jack Cooley leads the team in USG% (in 2 minutes played) should probably be ignored. Mason and Skal, who are also ahead of Bogdan in USG%, haven't played nearly the same amount of time as he has. That's not to say that I don't agree - Bogdan should get a higher USG%, and I hope we see that number climb next year.
1. Zach Randolph
2. Zach Randolph
3. Zach Randolph
4. Buddy Hield
5. Zach Randolph
6. De'Aaron Fox
7. Zach Randolph
8. Bogdan Bogdanovic
But seriously, USG% is a rate stat and not a counting stat, so, for instance, the fact that Jack Cooley leads the team in USG% (in 2 minutes played) should probably be ignored. Mason and Skal, who are also ahead of Bogdan in USG%, haven't played nearly the same amount of time as he has. That's not to say that I don't agree - Bogdan should get a higher USG%, and I hope we see that number climb next year.
I know you didn't going there, but I dislike rewarding players for stats that they don't put up. It's why I hate comparing player's per36 numbers. Just take Skal for example. He's playing about 20mpg. His per36 numbers are 15.5pts 8.3rebs 1.9asts 1.5blks 1.9tos. It sounds great.. but we all know the reality is that he probably wouldn't be able to put up these numbers even with 36mins a game.
My entire point is that we can't assume Bogdan will massively improve his stats with more minutes or more usage. We can't even assume that he'll take more shots with added minutes. Also, what are the chances that his TOV% doesn't increase with more usage?
I completely understand where you're coming from. I would 10000% agree if he was a 20yearold rookie.. but reality is, he's not. He's 25yearsold. He's older than Bradley Beal. Bogdan is at the age where he's just entering his prime. By this age, you know exactly what type of player you're getting out of a guy. Bogdan's case is unique because he just came over to the NBA this year at 25.
One case we have of this is Manu Ginoboli. Even if you want to use Ginoboli as an example for Bogdan, he has never put up 20ppg in any season. He came close at 30yearsold when he put up 19.5pts, but he immediately followed it with 15.5pts. You can say he didn't have a big enough role, but that was his role on a playoff team. Drazen Petrovic is another case where he started his career off slowly. In first 2 years, he averaged somewhere around 9pts a game. In his 3rd year, he exploded for 20pts, and followed it up with 22pts. That would be the best case scenario for Bogdan. But then there's a bunch of other guys who came into the league at 25yearsold who never explode after their "slow" starts like how Manu and Petrovic did.
Toni Kukoc, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Jose Calderon. Just name a few off the top of my head.
I'd love to be proven wrong. I just don't see Bogdan as a 20+ppg scorer in this league. I could see him as a good 17/5/5 player at his peak years, but not seeing the #1 or #2 player on a playoff team...especially not in the West.
My entire point is that we can't assume Bogdan will massively improve his stats with more minutes or more usage. We can't even assume that he'll take more shots with added minutes. Also, what are the chances that his TOV% doesn't increase with more usage?
I completely understand where you're coming from. I would 10000% agree if he was a 20yearold rookie.. but reality is, he's not. He's 25yearsold. He's older than Bradley Beal. Bogdan is at the age where he's just entering his prime. By this age, you know exactly what type of player you're getting out of a guy. Bogdan's case is unique because he just came over to the NBA this year at 25.
One case we have of this is Manu Ginoboli. Even if you want to use Ginoboli as an example for Bogdan, he has never put up 20ppg in any season. He came close at 30yearsold when he put up 19.5pts, but he immediately followed it with 15.5pts. You can say he didn't have a big enough role, but that was his role on a playoff team. Drazen Petrovic is another case where he started his career off slowly. In first 2 years, he averaged somewhere around 9pts a game. In his 3rd year, he exploded for 20pts, and followed it up with 22pts. That would be the best case scenario for Bogdan. But then there's a bunch of other guys who came into the league at 25yearsold who never explode after their "slow" starts like how Manu and Petrovic did.
Toni Kukoc, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Jose Calderon. Just name a few off the top of my head.
I'd love to be proven wrong. I just don't see Bogdan as a 20+ppg scorer in this league. I could see him as a good 17/5/5 player at his peak years, but not seeing the #1 or #2 player on a playoff team...especially not in the West.
Those posters who see Bogi as nothing more than a solid NBA pro are dismissed!
Bogi has star potential and you are either blindly biased or you’re just antagonistic.
Next year with full time starter’s mInutes, I expect Bogi to avg 20-21 points and 5-6 assists per game. That’s way above “solid pro.” In his 3rd NBA season, I expect him to avg 22-23 points and 6-7 assists per game. That’s probably his ceiling.
Bogi has star potential and you are either blindly biased or you’re just antagonistic.
Next year with full time starter’s mInutes, I expect Bogi to avg 20-21 points and 5-6 assists per game. That’s way above “solid pro.” In his 3rd NBA season, I expect him to avg 22-23 points and 6-7 assists per game. That’s probably his ceiling.
He. Doesn't. Have. A. Ceiling.
Nah, in all seriousness, though...He's nowhere near his ceiling, IMHO. I'd love to think that he has a lot of room for growth and improvement. Sure, he had years of International ball under his belt prior to coming to the NBA, but I'd love to think that his adjustments to the NBA level will result in a higher ceiling than most want to give the kid.
Just my opinion, however...
Nah, in all seriousness, though...He's nowhere near his ceiling, IMHO. I'd love to think that he has a lot of room for growth and improvement. Sure, he had years of International ball under his belt prior to coming to the NBA, but I'd love to think that his adjustments to the NBA level will result in a higher ceiling than most want to give the kid.
Just my opinion, however...
Being close to your ceiling also means that sometimes your basketball brain is close to fully formed. If the player you expect someone to be is different than what they are it sometimes does more harm than good to try and change that when they are this far along in their development. If there is a negative to the Kings drafting or trading for older, more developed players it's that they tend to be a bit less malleable.
I think Bogdan can be a huge part of the team showing the overall game he possesses. If there are players on the team destined to be a true scorers it would be Buddy or Skal. They don't have as complete a game as Bogdan but their mentality is that of a scorer. Bogdan is a more willing passer and play maker so I think it's in the best interest of the team to find a way that that combination of players can work to both their full individual effectiveness and as a unit. Bogdan could be setting up those two for their offense and at the same time being a true triple threat himself.
I think Bogdan can be a huge part of the team showing the overall game he possesses. If there are players on the team destined to be a true scorers it would be Buddy or Skal. They don't have as complete a game as Bogdan but their mentality is that of a scorer. Bogdan is a more willing passer and play maker so I think it's in the best interest of the team to find a way that that combination of players can work to both their full individual effectiveness and as a unit. Bogdan could be setting up those two for their offense and at the same time being a true triple threat himself.
There are only 15 players averaging 35+ minutes.
I want to see Bogi (like the rest of the kids) improve his D enough to warrant those kind of minutes.
I could care less about his raw stats on offense, as long as he keeps making good decisions. A lot of that depends on the type and talent of players around him. Ideally his scoring would stay the same, maybe more efficient, and his assists would go up.
I want to see Bogi (like the rest of the kids) improve his D enough to warrant those kind of minutes.
I could care less about his raw stats on offense, as long as he keeps making good decisions. A lot of that depends on the type and talent of players around him. Ideally his scoring would stay the same, maybe more efficient, and his assists would go up.