Bogdanovic’s ceiling

sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#1
#1
Okay we had an ongoing debate on Bogdanovic’s ceiling, here is an article that speaks directly to that subject:

http://hoopshype.com/2018/02/22/bogdan-bogdanovic-the-nbas-next-great-european-wing/

A couple items are left out.
  1. Bogi is putting up those numbers averaging only 27 minutes a game partly because Joeger felt he was getting run down. With a summer of rest, I expect Bogi to average 35-36 minutes a game.
  2. Bogi often stood on the perimeter while other players forced shots in the paint. This team is slowly becoming Bogi’s team and that will happen much less.
  3. The article makes no mention of Bogi’s step back 3 which he has been working to perfect. It’s not there yet. Too often he steps back into a very long 2. (Rookie mistake) He has been working on it coming around the pick and roll. With a summer to polish that move it could become lethal.
I’m holding at 19-21 points a game is a given and 23-25 is his ceiling. Bogi will be a foundational all star for this team.
 
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twslam07

twslam07

All-Star
#2
#2
Why do you always spell his name with an “h”? Am I missing something? I’ve only seen that spelling from you.

Even the article you posted doesn’t have the “h”.

End nit pick.
 
John Galt

John Galt

Starter
#3
#3
twslam07 said:
Why do you always spell his name with an “h”? Am I missing something? I’ve only seen that spelling from you.

Even the article you posted doesn’t have the “h”.

End nit pick.
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Sometimes auto-correct can be ruthless. My phone ALWAYS types "Kong's" when I type Kings.

Anyway, as he tweeted himself the other day, it's spelled BOGDAMN!

My favorite King since JWill... can't wait to to see him after a summer of rest because the man has played an awful lot of basketball the last couple years.
 
kingsboi

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#4
#4
I see his ceiling as a 18-19 PPG and a few assists and rebounds added in there, he can be a solid player moving forward with the team
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#5
#5
twslam07 said:
Why do you always spell his name with an “h”? Am I missing something? I’ve only seen that spelling from you.

Even the article you posted doesn’t have the “h”.

End nit pick.
Click to expand...
Fair point and accepted. I didn’t even see the H was added.

@VF21 can you correct the title for me?

(Fixed - Capt.)
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#6
#6
kingsboi said:
I see his ceiling as a 18-19 PPG and a few assists and rebounds added in there, he can be a solid player moving forward with the team
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I’m curious your reasoning on that statement?

In the last 10 Games where Bogi has upped his attempts he is averaging 16.2 ppts in 30 min. If you up his minutes to 35-36 he hits your 18-19 pots with zero skill improvement.

Do you really think he won’t improve his
  • Ability to get to the line where he averages 1.7 attempts but shoots 96%
  • Ability to hit the step back 3 off the dribble
 
2

206Fan

All-Star
#7
#7
On a playoff team, I think he's your 3rd best player.

just some examples of him on current playoff teams. He's the 3rd or 4th best players on these teams.
Denver: Jokic, Harris, Murray, and Bogdan
Rockets: Harden, CP3, and Bogdan
Timberwolves: Butler, KAT, Wiggins, and Bogdan
OKC: Westbrook, George, and Bogdan
Pelicans: AD, Cousins, Holiday, and Bogdan
Blazers: Lillard, McCollum, and Bogdan

Just being the 2nd best player on a team takes a lot of skill and talent. Do you think Bogdan has the talent level of guys like CP3, KAT, Paul George, Cousins, and McCollum? I don't think so.
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#8
#8
206Fan said:
On a playoff team, I think he's your 3rd best player.

just some examples of him on current playoff teams. He's the 3rd or 4th best players on these teams.
Denver: Jokic, Harris, Murray, and Bogdan
Rockets: Harden, CP3, and Bogdan
Timberwolves: Butler, KAT, Wiggins, and Bogdan
OKC: Westbrook, George, and Bogdan
Pelicans: AD, Cousins, Holiday, and Bogdan
Blazers: Lillard, McCollum, and Bogdan

Just being the 2nd best player on a team takes a lot of skill and talent. Do you think Bogdan has the talent level of guys like CP3, KAT, Paul George, Cousins, and McCollum? I don't think so.
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Being the “best player” is relatively subjective and hard to have a data driven discussion. I will say once the Kings play him 35-36 minutes which is normal starter minutes I expect him to produce for sure 19-21 points and 5 assists a game. He is already playing at that level in the minutes he is given.

The question on improving is 2 fold:
1) can he increase his free throw attempts? Right now they are below average. I expect he can at least get to average.
2) can he further refine the off the dribble step back.

I expect Bogdan will watch a lot of James Harden tape this summer. Whether he can improve on these areas will determine how high he goes. 23-25 is not out of reach for him. Whether that’s your 1st, 2nd or 3rd best player is up to you to decide.
 
J

Joshoua

All-Star
#9
#9
To be a 20ppg player he needs to get to the line more if he stays at 2attempts per game he won’t get there. A lot of times a head takes he needs to jump into the player but he never does it happens multiple times a game too.

I think he will be a 18-5 guy but we need more spacing for him as well
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#10
#10
Joshoua said:
To be a 20ppg player he needs to get to the line more if he stays at 2attempts per game he won’t get there. A lot of times a head takes he needs to jump into the player but he never does it happens multiple times a game too.

I think he will be a 18-5 guy but we need more spacing for him as well
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I’ve said 19-21 so we aren’t that far apart. But just in math alone I struggle to see only 18.

In the last 10 Games he averages .5364 points a minute. In 36 minutes that puts him at 19.31. So I agree he needs to improve his attempts but I think that pushes him further than just 20 points a game.
 
E

ESP47

All-Star
#13
#13
My prediction is that he can top out as an 18ppg scorer but his lack of getting to the line is worrisome. Same can be said for the rest of the team as far as FTA goes. Hield especially. Great shooter but he's not as effective as he seems because he's never at the line. Feels like he shoots technicals more than foul shots.

If this team is going to be worth a damn in a couple years, Fox and Hield's scoring numbers need to go up and the Kings are going to have to land a guy in the draft that's going to add to that as well.
 
Telemachus

Telemachus

Starter
#14
#14
ESP47 said:
My prediction is that he can top out as an 18ppg scorer but his lack of getting to the line is worrisome. Same can be said for the rest of the team as far as FTA goes. Hield especially. Great shooter but he's not as effective as he seems because he's never at the line. Feels like he shoots technicals more than foul shots.

If this team is going to be worth a damn in a couple years, Fox and Hield's scoring numbers need to go up and the Kings are going to have to land a guy in the draft that's going to add to that as well.
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Some of that will come with time. Both Fox and Bogie get into the paint quite a bit, but aren't rewarded for their efforts. Two things that help a ref swallow his whistle are rookies and bad teams. If they stay aggressive I believe they will start getting more respect from the refs next year.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#15
#15
I don't know if Bogs is ever going to be an All Star, but he sure is going to be a very big piece for the Kings going forward. His IQ both on and off the floor is a multiplier for every King player. We talk about the vets influencing the youngins; well, he is a 25 year old "rookie" influencing the youngins, imo. He could take on a big leadership role going forward, along with Fox. As the talent base gets greater on this team, he's going to be even more effective because he won't have to carry as much of the scoring load and he'll have more guys who can finish the assists he provides for them.
 
P

ppine

Starter
#17
#17
He has many skills. I love his passing ability, toughness and shooting from the perimeter especially. Bogie is a good defender and a strong player.
The only real limit I see on his ceiling is lack of speed. If he is going to play the point at times, he has to go up against the quickest players in the NBA. Some are scary fast. Some of the SGs are pretty fast also.
 
SacTownKid

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#18
#18
Realistically Bogdan is probably close to his ceiling. You can't forget he has years of pro ball experience already and will be 26 at the start of next season. It's hard to say where he tops out production wise because he doesn't seem to be naturally inclined to being a primary scorer nor am I sure that he'll make his team better in doing so. We also have to see what happens when opposing defenses really attack him.
 
J

Joshoua

All-Star
#19
#19
SacTownKid said:
Realistically Bogdan is probably close to his ceiling. You can't forget he has years of pro ball experience already and will be 26 at the start of next season. It's hard to say where he tops out production wise because he doesn't seem to be naturally inclined to being a primary scorer nor am I sure that he'll make his team better in doing so. We also have to see what happens when opposing defenses really attack him.
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Well I’d take 15-5 playmaking SG with solid defense
 
kingsboi

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#20
#20
sactowndog said:
I’m curious your reasoning on that statement?

In the last 10 Games where Bogi has upped his attempts he is averaging 16.2 ppts in 30 min. If you up his minutes to 35-36 he hits your 18-19 pots with zero skill improvement.

Do you really think he won’t improve his
  • Ability to get to the line where he averages 1.7 attempts but shoots 96%
  • Ability to hit the step back 3 off the dribble
Click to expand...
One, the coach he plays for. Two, the system he plays in. Three, he is 25 years old and while I'm not saying he has hit his ceiling, I don't see him getting THAT much better than some of us anticipate.
 
John Galt

John Galt

Starter
#21
#21
206Fan said:
On a playoff team, I think he's your 3rd best player.

just some examples of him on current playoff teams. He's the 3rd or 4th best players on these teams.
Denver: Jokic, Harris, Murray, and Bogdan
Rockets: Harden, CP3, and Bogdan
Timberwolves: Butler, KAT, Wiggins, and Bogdan
OKC: Westbrook, George, and Bogdan
Pelicans: AD, Cousins, Holiday, and Bogdan
Blazers: Lillard, McCollum, and Bogdan

Just being the 2nd best player on a team takes a lot of skill and talent. Do you think Bogdan has the talent level of guys like CP3, KAT, Paul George, Cousins, and McCollum? I don't think so.
Click to expand...
Well then it follows that if you get two guys on your roster who are better than BB8, you’re a damn good team. So... it’s a start. If Fox & Giles can be “better” than BB8... you’re damn good team. If Fox, WCS, Buddy, and Giles can be >= Bogdan... you’re a damn good team. If Lotto Pick and FA are better than BB8.... well you see where I’m going.

Right now Bogi is our best player and we’re not a damn good team... but we could be headed there. I’m always surprised at people who want to see rolls slowed on Bogi. Just don’t get it. He’s terrific.
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#22
#22
kingsboi said:
One, the coach he plays for. Two, the system he plays in. Three, he is 25 years old and while I'm not saying he has hit his ceiling, I don't see him getting THAT much better than some of us anticipate.
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Right but if you just do the math off the last 10 Games as he has upped his shot attempts and extend the minutes to starter minutes he is already at 19.
 
VF21

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#27
#27
sactowndog said:
Okay we had an ongoing debate on Bogdanovic’s ceiling, here is an article that speaks directly to that subject:

http://hoopshype.com/2018/02/22/bogdan-bogdanovic-the-nbas-next-great-european-wing/

A couple items are left out.
  1. Bogi is putting up those numbers averaging only 27 minutes a game partly because Joeger felt he was getting run down. With a summer of rest, I expect Bogi to average 35-36 minutes a game.
  2. Bogi often stood on the perimeter while other players forced shots in the paint. This team is slowly becoming Bogi’s team and that will happen much less.
  3. The article makes no mention of Bogi’s step back 3 which he has been working to perfect. It’s not there yet. Too often he steps back into a very long 2. (Rookie mistake) He has been working on it coming around the pick and roll. With a summer to polish that move it could become lethal.
I’m holding at 19-21 points a game is a given and 23-25 is his ceiling. Bogi will be a foundational all star for this team.
Click to expand...
I agree with ALL of this with one exception. I don't think we can judge his ceiling quite yet, for the simple reason I think we'll be underestimating him if we do. ;) With the right supporting cast, I truly believe Bogs can be a 25-28 ppg player (including more points from the stripe). As you mentioned, if he perfects that step-back 3, look out NBA.
 
sactowndog

sactowndog

All-Star
#28
#28
SacTownKid said:
Realistically Bogdan is probably close to his ceiling. You can't forget he has years of pro ball experience already and will be 26 at the start of next season. It's hard to say where he tops out production wise because he doesn't seem to be naturally inclined to being a primary scorer nor am I sure that he'll make his team better in doing so. We also have to see what happens when opposing defenses really attack him.
Click to expand...
This comment is fair but if you look at shots and minutes it maps out to around 19 without any improvement.

The logic I don’t understand for people saying 15 ppg is do you really think he is going to average 27.7 minutes and 9.6 attempts a game next year.

I used the last 10 games because 30 min and 12.9 attempts is much closer to reality for next year. And with that reality he is already scoring 16.2. Except next year will more likely going to be 36 min and 15 attempts. Assuming Bogdan has a similar level of efficiency how would he possibly score less than 18-19 points with no improvement?
 
ParniValjak

ParniValjak

All-Star
#30
#30
Mrkipro said:
he is worker he is winner.He had heart.He is last second guy
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So many great memories! I get goosebumps every time I watch that video! There is nothing quite like when Pionir is rocking for Partizan's Euroleague game or a derby against Red Star. In those games Bogdan stepped up and led by example, hence why he is still the favourite of Patizan's fans! Standing ovation whenever he appears in the arena!
 
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