Bigger future need?

S

Smills91

Starter
Powerful, bulky, post-oreiented defensive-minded center (a la Chris Kaman)

or

pass-first distributive PG (a la Jose Calderon)

If you had to pick one, which would you pick in the draft next year to go with our current group of youngsters, ignore current salary situation of our players.
 
I'd go with a big C.


Even if Hawes reaches his offensive potential and puts up 25 a game, we'll still be destroyed night in and night out if we lose the battle on the boards and cant defend the paint.
 
I think this has been the question since 2005-6, if not 2004-5. We've made efforts to fill both needs, but I'm not entirely convinced that we've succeeded at either one. I think that we should avoid settling for kids who are decent players, but don't really fit team needs all that well. Beno: good player overall, but his weak point is a really poor A/TO ratio, which is also the team's weakness. Not good. Hawes: may turn into a good player, but seems unlikely to ever bring the D and rebounding that our front line so desperately need. JT might be able to fill that gap, but only after hundreds of hours in the weight room, and a change in style and focus, which may never come about. And if it did, we'd still be short a couple of bigs.

I'm thinking that Geoff should take whichever he can get without compromising about the type or quality of player. I don't think he'll be faced with both the next Marcus Camby and the next Steve Nash, so... fill whichever one he can. If kids+triangle doesn't get us a high draft pick, this may mean needing to trade up. I don't think a pick outside of the top 5 is going to cut it.

I'd be delighted to get either one, as long as he does it right.
 
First of all, I think its a little early to decide what our needs are going to be. The jury is still out on a lot of the young players we have. We have no idea how good, or bad Hawes is going to be. I think Thompson has the ability to become a very good defensive player. He's a hard worker and and has the desire. We'll just have to wait and see.

I hope that this thread isn't a response to last nights game, because that would be ridiculous. However, getting back to the origional question. I would take a very good defensive center. A good defensive center makes everyone else's job easier.

One final note. I find it interesting that some will tout Marcus Camby as what we need, and in the next sentence state that Thompson will never be very good defensively unless he gains weight and gets stronger.. I would bet your life, that Thompson outweighs Camby, and is probably stronger. What he doesn't have is Camby's experience. He fouled out of last nights game, but at least he did it trying to play defense. Give him time.
 
Assuming both are of equal quality relative to their positions, I go with the defensive big. It's not as necessary (to contend for a championship) to have a pass first distributor like Kidd/Paul/Calderon/Nash than to have a defensive post player. They have a much bigger impact defensively than the distributor does offensively IMO. Unless something unforeseen happens though, I don't really see that player in next year's draft. Mullens is not really thought of as a defensive minded player and hasn't shown shot blocking abilities. Griffin can be a good positional defender but I don't think he has the physical tools to be a defensive anchor; he comes closest to that 2-way big we need though, despite a weakness with him and Hawes. I guess Thabeet has that potential, but as far as IQ and awareness goes on both sides of the court, he lacks severely. Say Thabeet really improves and becomes a Mutumbo-like player, that kind of boots Hawes out of the C spot; then we need to find a plus offensive player at the 4 if we want that inside outside game offensively. We'd have to hope and pray that Thompson would become that or we just created another hole (albeit smaller and easier to fix) while we still have another one, a guard that can facilitate the offense.

Ideally in the draft it would be a choice of taking what we need more, but I think we have to react to the quality of the players in the draft. You only take for need, if the quality relative to their position is not significantly different. With potentially Rubio and Holiday in the draft, we may have a better crop at the guards that can create as oppose to the bigs who can be a force on the block and act as a defensive anchor; in as far as what they can do and what we'd need to fit our team. However, we won't really know until we get closer to the draft.

It would be nice if we could grab a PF that can solve all our frontline defficiencies, while fitting with Spencer, but that may not be the case. We may have to give up on Spencer as our center of the future.

We still have a pretty big hole at the PG though, I don't think we necessarily need a pass first, ball dominant, big time assist guy. We just need a guy who can handle the ball, have good passing/vision, create off the dribble, and make good (and quick) decisions; ultimately be a floor leader. Now that's the description of a typical PG, but I'm just trying to reiterate that we don't need a big time ball handling 10 apg guy. Just someone who we can trust to lead the offense, and can have enough scoring ability so where we can give the ball to him in the clutch. I think Jrue Holiday fits that description better than Mullens or Griffin fit the description of defensive minded power post players (as of yet.)
 
bajaden said:
First of all, I think its a little early to decide what our needs are going to be. The jury is still out on a lot of the young players we have. We have no idea how good, or bad Hawes is going to be. I think Thompson has the ability to become a very good defensive player. He's a hard worker and and has the desire. We'll just have to wait and see.

I hope that this thread isn't a response to last nights game, because that would be ridiculous. However, getting back to the origional question. I would take a very good defensive center. A good defensive center makes everyone else's job easier.

One final note. I find it interesting that some will tout Marcus Camby as what we need, and in the next sentence state that Thompson will never be very good defensively unless he gains weight and gets stronger.. I would bet your life, that Thompson outweighs Camby, and is probably stronger. What he doesn't have is Camby's experience. He fouled out of last nights game, but at least he did it trying to play defense. Give him time.
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Yea, it's too early to truly have an informed discussion on it, but it doesn't hurt to discuss it in an abstract sense and not necessarily assuming dramatic improvement from either Hawes or Thompson.
 
Vlade4GM said:
Yea, it's too early to truly have an informed discussion on it, but it doesn't hurt to discuss it in an abstract sense and not necessarily assuming dramatic improvement from either Hawes or Thompson.
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In my opinion anyone who thinks Thomspon won't make dramatic improvements will be eating words in a few years. This kid is the real deal, he just needs time I believe.

Hawes is questionable. He will always have physical limitations, because of his surgeries. He may not develop to what we could have been simply, because he can't get to a spot fast enough to defend. Time will tell though.
 
It seems that more weight is being placed on the first preseason game this year than the eight actual games that Hawes started last season when he managed to put up about 12/8/2/2.
 
NME said:
It seems that more weight is being placed on the first preseason game this year than the eight actual games that Hawes started last season when he managed to put up about 12/8/2/2.
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This is the internet, not reality. Sheesh.
 
DocHolliday said:
In my opinion anyone who thinks Thomspon won't make dramatic improvements will be eating words in a few years. This kid is the real deal, he just needs time I believe.

Hawes is questionable. He will always have physical limitations, because of his surgeries. He may not develop to what we could have been simply, because he can't get to a spot fast enough to defend. Time will tell though.
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I wasn't stating an opinion that he won't improve, just merely saying for the sake of discussion not making the assumption that he will when we don't know as of yet. I mean, he was a 12th pick in a pretty average draft and he has yet to play a real NBA game, it's a leap whether you believe in him or not.
 
I would say PG.

Ricky Rubio or Jrue Holiday

with my dark horse Patrick Mills....kids game reminds me of better passing Tony Parker.
 
bajaden said:
One final note. I find it interesting that some will tout Marcus Camby as what we need, and in the next sentence state that Thompson will never be very good defensively unless he gains weight and gets stronger..
Click to expand...
Eh? Who said "never" about that? I said that a change in his style and focus (to that of a D-minded center) may never come about. That's up to him and his coaches.
bajaden said:
I would bet your life, that Thompson outweighs Camby, and is probably stronger. What he doesn't have is Camby's experience.
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Right. But there are two ways he can avoid getting pushed around as a rookie, and experience is by far the slower. More strength isn't a substitute, but in a matter of months, he could put on another 10 or 15 pounds of muscle, which I believe would be helpful in the short run. And anything which helps in the short run will get him more minutes sooner, so the experience will follow. But all of this presupposes that JT's natural position is C, not PF, and/or that we need a C more than a PF, and I don't feel sure that either of those are true.

I'm pretty optimistic about JT, less confident about Hawes, but even if both of them worked out for us, we'd still be short a bare minimum of one PF/C. So I don't see JT as the entire solution, even if he grows to 7'2" and presses 350. We will still need to sign more bigs.
 
fnordius said:
Eh? Who said "never" about that? I said that a change in his style and focus (to that of a D-minded center) may never come about. That's up to him and his coaches.

Right. But there are two ways he can avoid getting pushed around as a rookie, and experience is by far the slower. More strength isn't a substitute, but in a matter of months, he could put on another 10 or 15 pounds of muscle, which I believe would be helpful in the short run. And anything which helps in the short run will get him more minutes sooner, so the experience will follow. But all of this presupposes that JT's natural position is C, not PF, and/or that we need a C more than a PF, and I don't feel sure that either of those are true.

I'm pretty optimistic about JT, less confident about Hawes, but even if both of them worked out for us, we'd still be short a bare minimum of one PF/C. So I don't see JT as the entire solution, even if he grows to 7'2" and presses 350. We will still need to sign more bigs.
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I hope you noted that I bet your life and not mine.;) I honestly don't know how good Thompson will be, but my gut tells me he is special, and my gut isn't wrong very often. Well, I did tell Custer that there wern't any indians out there, but thats another discussion.

I don't know what to say about Hawes at this point. I was a big fan of his coming out of college and thought he did fairly well last year. I wouldn't write him off just yet. He has talent, but he looks as though his confidence has taken a hit. Not unusual, but it can be fatal in the short term, if he can't get past it.

50% of sucess, is in the head of any athlete. The other 50% is in his or her ability. There's a fine line between knowing you can, and thinking you can.
 
I'm gonna take a big man over a PG as of right now because we don't know how Bobby Brown will turn out. We don't really know how Spencer will turn out either, but we know he won't be a great defender or anything. I'll take Blake Griffin in a heartbeat, he's the real deal.
 
Capt. Factorial said:
This is the internet, not reality. Sheesh.
Click to expand...

Love THAT comment. A nice cold splash of reality waps us square on. Preseason game-1 is a throw away in any case and with 2 starters out one being Kings top scorer what would you expect.......... Sheesh!
 
SacKings7 said:
I'm gonna take a big man over a PG as of right now because we don't know how Bobby Brown will turn out. We don't really know how Spencer will turn out either, but we know he won't be a great defender or anything. I'll take Blake Griffin in a heartbeat, he's the real deal.
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Blake Griffin I think could be a solid co-franchise player on a contending team, but it would still leave us without a defensive anchor.
 
This is a hard question to answer. It's like asking if you would want LBJ or CP. I would take both of them at this point :P
 
Vlade4GM said:
Blake Griffin I think could be a solid co-franchise player on a contending team, but it would still leave us without a defensive anchor.
Click to expand...

Ha, that's very true. But I'd still take him. Defensive anchors aren't easy to find, but they're easier to find than a star, so we should get our star(s) first, then fill in the holes.
 
Whereas Kaman was mentioned in this thread, I decided to look up some stats on centers that are noted for defense. These are rebounding and blocked shot stats only. They are also first year stats except for Przybilla who only played a handfull of games his first year, so its his second year stats.

Hawes - Played 930 total minutes or 13.1 mpg. He had 40 blocked shots. His rebounds per 48 min rate was 14.5 or 3.2 rpg.

Kaman - Played 1,843 total minutes or 22.5 mpg. He had 73 blocked shots. His rebounds per 48 min rate was 14.3 or 5.6 rpg.

Camby - Played 1,897 total minutes or 30.1 mpg (he only played in 63 games, so his mpg is higher) He had 130 blocked shots. His rebounds per 48 min rate was 12.2 or 6.3 rpg.

Przybilla - Played 1129 total minutes or 15.9 mpg. He had 118 blocked shots. His rebounds per 48 min rate is 14.4 or 4.0 rpg.

So, just looking at first year stats, Hawes stands up fairly well against the other three players. Its obvious that Camby looked like a shot blocker from the get go and Przybilla also has an edge there. But looking at minutes played, Hawes has an edge on Kaman in blocks.

I'm not saying that Hawes will be as good as any of these players. I'm just saying that they, for the most part didn't blow anyone away in their first year either.
 
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bajaden said:
So, just looking at first year stats, Hawes stands up fairly well against the other three players. Its obvious that Camby looked like a shot blocker from the get go and Przybilla also has an edge there. But looking at minutes played, Hawes has an edge on Kaman in blocks.
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That's interesting, I wouldn't have guessed that. He was also much younger as a rookie than those players.

Hawes really exceeded expectations in the rebounding and shot-blocking, but underperformed offensively. The fact the held his own rebounding and shot-blocking is a GREAT sign and its realistic to expect the offense we've heard so much about will develop as his he bulks out.

That said, if you told me I could essentially draft Kaman or Calderon onto the team next year I'd probly take Kaman (and I think Calderon is a stud). Because even with as much promise as Hawes has, he has a LONG ways to go.
 
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Big, defensive center AND pass-first PG.

I don't think our offense will ever get going the way fans/coaches want with Beno at the helm...he's good at driving, shooting, but not much of a creator. Getting our assist numbers up, that starts with the PG. Jason Williams, IMO, jumpstarted that pass-first culture that we all have fond memories of. We need someone like that...is Ricky Rubio the answer?

A big defensive center is needed to win a championship, period. From my memory, the only team to win a championship and not have a superstar big was the Chicago Bulls. And Kevin Martin is no MJ. I don't think BJ Mullens can stop the Greg Odens/Dwight Howards/Andrew Bynums, nor is Blake Griffin big enough (likely 6'8- or barely 6'9, college stats are always inflated).

But if I were to choose, it'd be a quality big, because a PG will get you into the playoffs, but a big gets you the title. I just don't know where we'll find him...
 
I'm really hoping Beno can be that pass first PG i've always wanted us to have but I wouldn't mind having Rubio on our team.
 
bajaden said:
Whereas Kaman was mentioned in this thread, I decided to look up some stats on centers that are noted for defense. These are rebounding and blocked shot stats only. They are also first year stats except for Przybilla who only played a handfull of games his first year, so its his second year stats.

Hawes - Played 930 total minutes or 13.1 mpg. He had 40 blocked shots. His rebounds per 48 min rate was 14.5 or 3.2 rpg.

Kaman - Played 1,843 total minutes or 22.5 mpg. He had 73 blocked shots. His rebounds per 48 min rate was 14.3 or 5.6 rpg.

Camby - Played 1,897 total minutes or 30.1 mpg (he only played in 63 games, so his mpg is higher) He had 130 blocked shots. His rebounds per 48 min rate was 12.2 or 6.3 rpg.

Przybilla - Played 1129 total minutes or 15.9 mpg. He had 118 blocked shots. His rebounds per 48 min rate is 14.4 or 4.0 rpg.

So, just looking at first year stats, Hawes stands up fairly well against the other three players. Its obvious that Camby looked like a shot blocker from the get go and Przybilla also has an edge there. But looking at minutes played, Hawes has an edge on Kaman in blocks.

I'm not saying that Hawes will be as good as any of these players. I'm just saying that they, for the most part didn't blow anyone away in their first year either.
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I had a couple of little quibbles to make here, but something jumped out at me and I had to go check:

Spencer's reb/48 last year was 11.7, not 14.4

48/13.1 = 3.664 x 3.2 = 11.7

Which led me to go check the stats of the other players you mention, and they were all off too? Not sure what the formula you were using was, but it was overstating for everybody. You can see it pretty clearly with Camby -- 6.3 in 30.1min (more than half the game) means he couldn't possibly average 12+ in a full game.

The good news is that while I couldn't duplicate the error, I guess as long as it was the same one every time, the comparison would still stand (not that I think its actullay remotely valid as far as predicting Hawes' future -- I will eat my hat if he ever averaged 15rpg the way Kaman did last year).

P.S. the quibbles were that Pryz was a scawny scrub in his early years and that Camby actually started off as a tweener forward in Toronto rather than a big.
 
Hawes actually looks to be a solid shotblocker. His problem is that I think he actually relies on it too much. That spin move put on his was a mirror image of what Pau Gasol did to him last season. The only difference was against Gasol he was able to save the easy hoop with a block. Good position defense > blocking the shot when it comes to post D.
 
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