2004:
1. Dwight Howard
2. Okafor
3. Ben Gordon
4. Livingston
5. Devin Harris
6. Childress
7. Deng
8. Araujo
9. Iggy
10. Luke Jackson
So, these top 10 picks are supposed to be star-level talent that might end up franchise players who help make a team a contender. So how have these teams done with that?
I'd say the Magic got a great player, but still 4 years later with a team with decent talent, they haven't gotten past the first round.
The bulls went on a run two years ago and swept the Heat in the first round, but didn't go anywhere. Ben and Deng got caught up in how good they thought they were, turned down 50 mil deals, and now that team is a mess. 4 years later, they are still hoping their lottery pick might change things.
The sixers got Iggy, and improved lately, but are they on their way to contending?
2005
1. Bogut
2. Marvin Williams
3. Deron Williams
4. Chris Paul
5. Felton
6. Webster
7. Charlie V
8. Frye
9. Diogu
10. Bynum
Seems as if there are only two franchise players, possibly 3 if Bynum turns out like LA fans think he will. He's still got to develop and stay healthy, and nothing is proven for him at this point. The other 7 players are role players who haven't turned around a franchise.
The Hornets are almost at a contending level, but need a bench, as they had one of the worst in the game. They overpaid some guys to get talent, and still need more work with little money to work with to get to the next level.
Utah got Deron, but they still aren't serious contenders. They were one of the worst road teams in the game, and had some inconsistent play that hurt them. They made the WCF two seasons ago, but they still need more work.
2006:
1. Bargnani
2. Aldridge
3. Morrison
4. Tyrus Thomas
5. Sheldon Williams
6. Brandon Roy
7. Foye
8. Rudy Gay
9. Patrick O'Bryant
10. Sene
Ok, we have possibly two franchise players who aren't at that level yet. Brandon Roy is the closest to that level, and will lead the Blazers with some other pieces for the foreseeable future. Rudy Gay might turn out to be that franchise guy, but he isn't there yet.
Aldridge is a nice piece, and might turn into an all-star if things pan out, but not a guy who can change a franchise.
Some people in this thread really slammed Geoff for that Beno deal that will keep the Kings from getting a top 5 pick. Some would rather lose so they can get a top 5 lottery pick for the supposed "future" of the franchise.
Do you see, in the recent draft classes, a lock for a franchise player in the top 10? Top 5? I counted 3 franchise players in the top 5, and possibly 3 more in the 5-10 range. That's 6 (best case) in 30 picks during 3 drafts.
Do you think that if the Kings lose and get a top 5 pick that it will turn into the future? Let's say they do. Let's say they didn't sign Beno, dump some contracts, and lose 50-60 games for two more seasons, and in 2010 the Kings get a top 3 pick and draft a very good player, but he won't develop into that franchise changer for another few seasons. That means by the time you get your franchise level player, there goes 5 losing seasons, and that's best case scenario. Worst case, they pick a guy who doesn't pan out, and they can't sign big free agents who don't want to come back, and we are back to early 90's sacramento basketball.
It's very rare that a team grabs a superstar in the draft. Just look at teams like Hawks who have had the most lottery picks and haven't been relevant for years.