This is a good long term trade and a bad trade in the short term. The reason for the trade is pretty simple: It's a bet against Webber staying healthy. Webber is the third highest paid player in the league. Everyone here seems to assume that Webber is going to stay healthy and perform at his current level over the next three and a half years. I see almost no chance of this happening.
I absolutely believe that right now - today - is the high point of Webber's post-surgery career. It has been five years since Webber was healthy for an extended period. He is coming off microfracture knee surgery. Precisely one NBA player, Kerry Kittles, recovered from microfracture surgery. The others, Jason Kidd, Penny Hardaway, Ed Najera, Jamal Mashburn and Allan Houston, are either shells of their former selves, retired or they weren't that good in the first place.
We're talking about paying a guy $70 million over the next 3 1/2 years who we KNOW won't be healthy. When, not if, but when Webber goes down with knee problems or another injury, he's completely untradable and you're stuck with the remainder of his deal. This trade was about Webber's enormous contract and his propensity for injury. Would you bet $70 million on Webber staying healthy? I wouldn't.
In addition, the Kings get cap relief a year earlier. Williamson and Skinner come off the cap in 06/07, freeing up $12 million the Kings would have paid Webber in 07/08.
Last I checked, the Kings are 2-9 against the top five teams in the West. Even before the recent skid, this WAS NOT a championship-caliber team. The Kings were a certain second round exit and I saw a high likelihood of a first-round upset. Does this make the team better in the short term? No. They're unquestionably worse. I expected to see Petrie get a promising young player, some draft picks or an expiring contract, but he didn't. Corliss IS a very good bench player and has been traded several times, so he DOES have value. Skinner duplicates Ostertag somewhat and probably won't play. Thomas is mediocre unless we can somehow get 10 boards a game out of him. Assuming Webber's health, the immediate talent disparity in this trade is ENORMOUS. The Kings are a five to eight seed playoff team now. However, this trade WILL turn better when Webber misses 35 games each of the next two years and eventually sits the last year of his contract because he's hurt.
The combination of smaller contracts adds flexibility. Peja will have half a season to produce. If he doesn't, the Kings can bundle him with any combination of players for someone like Paul Pierce (Peja and Corliss for Pierce works under the cap). The Kings also have Mobley (sign and trade) and potentially Bobby Jackson as trade bait for a top-tier guy like Ray Allen or Michael Redd. The offseason WILL bring more trades.
This isn't a good trade right now, but it gives the team the flexibility to rebuild and is an almost sure bet against Webber being healthy.
I absolutely believe that right now - today - is the high point of Webber's post-surgery career. It has been five years since Webber was healthy for an extended period. He is coming off microfracture knee surgery. Precisely one NBA player, Kerry Kittles, recovered from microfracture surgery. The others, Jason Kidd, Penny Hardaway, Ed Najera, Jamal Mashburn and Allan Houston, are either shells of their former selves, retired or they weren't that good in the first place.
We're talking about paying a guy $70 million over the next 3 1/2 years who we KNOW won't be healthy. When, not if, but when Webber goes down with knee problems or another injury, he's completely untradable and you're stuck with the remainder of his deal. This trade was about Webber's enormous contract and his propensity for injury. Would you bet $70 million on Webber staying healthy? I wouldn't.
In addition, the Kings get cap relief a year earlier. Williamson and Skinner come off the cap in 06/07, freeing up $12 million the Kings would have paid Webber in 07/08.
Last I checked, the Kings are 2-9 against the top five teams in the West. Even before the recent skid, this WAS NOT a championship-caliber team. The Kings were a certain second round exit and I saw a high likelihood of a first-round upset. Does this make the team better in the short term? No. They're unquestionably worse. I expected to see Petrie get a promising young player, some draft picks or an expiring contract, but he didn't. Corliss IS a very good bench player and has been traded several times, so he DOES have value. Skinner duplicates Ostertag somewhat and probably won't play. Thomas is mediocre unless we can somehow get 10 boards a game out of him. Assuming Webber's health, the immediate talent disparity in this trade is ENORMOUS. The Kings are a five to eight seed playoff team now. However, this trade WILL turn better when Webber misses 35 games each of the next two years and eventually sits the last year of his contract because he's hurt.
The combination of smaller contracts adds flexibility. Peja will have half a season to produce. If he doesn't, the Kings can bundle him with any combination of players for someone like Paul Pierce (Peja and Corliss for Pierce works under the cap). The Kings also have Mobley (sign and trade) and potentially Bobby Jackson as trade bait for a top-tier guy like Ray Allen or Michael Redd. The offseason WILL bring more trades.
This isn't a good trade right now, but it gives the team the flexibility to rebuild and is an almost sure bet against Webber being healthy.
