=LarryLegend=
Starter
Mills, Collison, or Casspi.
and with the #31 pick in the 2009 NBA draft, the Kings select...
- Thread starter fnordius
- Start date
Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
I love Derrick Brown's potential and game--seems like a guy who could do better in the NBA provided that he's groomed properly, of course. He's just a freak athlete--athletically he'll be on the elite level in the NBA, with explosion, strength, lateral quickness and wingspan galore. Great NBA body for a SF. That immediately gives him a lot of potential on the defensive end, and if he's on the right team and focuses on that end a defensive stopper role might be in the cards; offensively, on a disciplined team, he can live off of scraps or shovel passes for easy layups or dunks, and of course he'll also excel in transition.
Brown hasn't improved much in terms of efficiency from his freshman year in Xavier--that's why he's slated as a 2nd rounder--but you can tell he's trying to develop a perimeter game. He's taken more college threes and naturally, less free throws with every passing year, but I suspect he's trying to take more jumpers--his 2-point FG% has went down every year as well. There's potential with his jumper--he shot 43% from three and 74% from the line, though, so between that and his decent passing ability for a SF he's actually more skilled than most might think. His athletic markers are of course, very good--for a SF, he's an excellent offensive rebounder and decent shotblocker, he's decent at getting to the stripe, and he had 73 dunks this year.
So I'm seeing shades of decent skill and elite athleticism here, and while I think he might be a mechanical player in the NBA (due to lack of ballhandling skill and not too polished offensive game), I think his developing shooting and physical tools will allow him to move a step down to the SF position easier than most other tweeners. So there's a lot of potential to be a very solid role player who can ignite a team with his energy on both ends of the floor. You want Trevor Ariza? Brown's almost the nearest thing to Ariza, with less stealing ability but better shooting ability than when Ariza was a freshman. But they're very similar, and if Brown's harnessed the right way he could gain traction in the league.
I would advocate selecting him at #31--we don't really need a SF, but if Garcia or Nocioni gets moved during the summer, we could afford to use a young potential athlete with defensive tools there, not seen since Gerald Wallace. Could be a steal as well, and probably of all the players that would still be available there he'd probably have the most potential as well.
Brown hasn't improved much in terms of efficiency from his freshman year in Xavier--that's why he's slated as a 2nd rounder--but you can tell he's trying to develop a perimeter game. He's taken more college threes and naturally, less free throws with every passing year, but I suspect he's trying to take more jumpers--his 2-point FG% has went down every year as well. There's potential with his jumper--he shot 43% from three and 74% from the line, though, so between that and his decent passing ability for a SF he's actually more skilled than most might think. His athletic markers are of course, very good--for a SF, he's an excellent offensive rebounder and decent shotblocker, he's decent at getting to the stripe, and he had 73 dunks this year.
So I'm seeing shades of decent skill and elite athleticism here, and while I think he might be a mechanical player in the NBA (due to lack of ballhandling skill and not too polished offensive game), I think his developing shooting and physical tools will allow him to move a step down to the SF position easier than most other tweeners. So there's a lot of potential to be a very solid role player who can ignite a team with his energy on both ends of the floor. You want Trevor Ariza? Brown's almost the nearest thing to Ariza, with less stealing ability but better shooting ability than when Ariza was a freshman. But they're very similar, and if Brown's harnessed the right way he could gain traction in the league.
I would advocate selecting him at #31--we don't really need a SF, but if Garcia or Nocioni gets moved during the summer, we could afford to use a young potential athlete with defensive tools there, not seen since Gerald Wallace. Could be a steal as well, and probably of all the players that would still be available there he'd probably have the most potential as well.
GeraldWallace#3
Bench
I would be happy with him or Derrick Favors....I mean Brown
. I think he has the Jason Thompson syndrom, good player for a small school.Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
Avoid drafting at #31:
Tyler Smith. Is athletic, but only uses it offensively (gets to the line really well), as he's only a mediocre rebounder, stealer and shotblocker. He's a fairly good passer for a SF and doesn't turn the ball over, but he severely regressed in his offensive efficiency from last year, and simply can't shoot the ball--even though he takes a fifth of his shots as three pointers. Has a set of mutually exclusive strengths--among real SFs, only Paul Harris was his equivalent at passing and getting to the line--but has too many other holes. Pretty similar to Kyle Weaver, but lacks Weaver's court vision, stealing ability and shot selection--so I think he'll be a worse player.
Damion James. Put up very similar stats to many players of his prototype not in the league, and tons of red flags--he's one of the worst players in scoring efficiency among draftable PFs, with a scandalously low free throw rate for someone who plays around the rim--really doesn't bode well for him, and between that and the fact that he can't pass the ball, he's an offensive liability in the league. He can really rebound, but he's 6'6"--between that his 220 lb frame, it's doubtful whether he will even succeed here.
AJ Price. Regressed in passing from last year, and seems only to be an average playmaker at best. Offensively becoming more and more a three point shooter--he's pretty good, but he's not a pure shooter and probably won't be able to live solely off this in the NBA level; overall, he's just not that efficient offensively (11 PGs in the draft are better scorers and passers). Athletic markers have fell (free throw attempts, steals, rebound rate have all dropped), not a good sign and probably a product of past injuries. 1.5 dimensional, with only good shooting ability and some passing, but not much else. Also has way too much body fat on him.
Toney Douglas. Broke out offensively in his senior year mostly by commanding a higher usage rate, increasing his efficiency some and getting to the line more. Very efficient scorer with a 58% TS, and does it by both getting to the line and by taking a lot of three pointers. But he's completely inept in passing ability and only guns, having one of the worst assist/possessions for both PGs and even for SGs. Just very one-dimensional as a guy who just wants to score--and unlike Jeff Teague, he doesn't pass or shoot threes quite as well, and has far less physical attributes (Teague has a 37' vert while Douglas has a 32' vert). Remember Troy Bell? Douglas has a similar gameface to him, just without the athleticism. Doesn't bode well for him.
Marcus Thornton. Gunner guard who looks to score, and has reasonable athletic markers (good offensive rebound and steal rates for a SG). Mixes and matches his offense--doesn't take a whole lot of threes or get to the line at a very good rate, but is highly efficient with his scoring. His passing really needs substantial work--even among SGs, he has one of the lowest assist/possession rates, and his high FGA/possession clearly indicates that he just shoots almost every time down. He doesn't turn the ball over, but at 6'4" with just a decent vert and subpar length, his commonplace scoring style of game with no passing ability makes his success rate real questionable in the NBA. He can potentially be a sparkplug who can excel scoring in a variety of ways, but he seriously needs to diversify his game.
Nando de Colo. Combo guard who rebounds well for a point guard and passes decently for a shooting guard, but he's a fairly poor passer for a point guard. Decidedly average in scoring efficiency--takes 40% of his shots from threes, but only shoots 35%, and he's very ordinary at getting to the line. Quite foul prone. Actually regressed from last year--his shooting took quite a tumble and his steals dropped significantly. Nothing really jumps out of you--seems like a jack of all trades, master of none type player, and if he were doing this in a 6'2" body rather than a 6'5" body I don't think he would even get him any draft interest.
Tyler Smith. Is athletic, but only uses it offensively (gets to the line really well), as he's only a mediocre rebounder, stealer and shotblocker. He's a fairly good passer for a SF and doesn't turn the ball over, but he severely regressed in his offensive efficiency from last year, and simply can't shoot the ball--even though he takes a fifth of his shots as three pointers. Has a set of mutually exclusive strengths--among real SFs, only Paul Harris was his equivalent at passing and getting to the line--but has too many other holes. Pretty similar to Kyle Weaver, but lacks Weaver's court vision, stealing ability and shot selection--so I think he'll be a worse player.
Damion James. Put up very similar stats to many players of his prototype not in the league, and tons of red flags--he's one of the worst players in scoring efficiency among draftable PFs, with a scandalously low free throw rate for someone who plays around the rim--really doesn't bode well for him, and between that and the fact that he can't pass the ball, he's an offensive liability in the league. He can really rebound, but he's 6'6"--between that his 220 lb frame, it's doubtful whether he will even succeed here.
AJ Price. Regressed in passing from last year, and seems only to be an average playmaker at best. Offensively becoming more and more a three point shooter--he's pretty good, but he's not a pure shooter and probably won't be able to live solely off this in the NBA level; overall, he's just not that efficient offensively (11 PGs in the draft are better scorers and passers). Athletic markers have fell (free throw attempts, steals, rebound rate have all dropped), not a good sign and probably a product of past injuries. 1.5 dimensional, with only good shooting ability and some passing, but not much else. Also has way too much body fat on him.
Toney Douglas. Broke out offensively in his senior year mostly by commanding a higher usage rate, increasing his efficiency some and getting to the line more. Very efficient scorer with a 58% TS, and does it by both getting to the line and by taking a lot of three pointers. But he's completely inept in passing ability and only guns, having one of the worst assist/possessions for both PGs and even for SGs. Just very one-dimensional as a guy who just wants to score--and unlike Jeff Teague, he doesn't pass or shoot threes quite as well, and has far less physical attributes (Teague has a 37' vert while Douglas has a 32' vert). Remember Troy Bell? Douglas has a similar gameface to him, just without the athleticism. Doesn't bode well for him.
Marcus Thornton. Gunner guard who looks to score, and has reasonable athletic markers (good offensive rebound and steal rates for a SG). Mixes and matches his offense--doesn't take a whole lot of threes or get to the line at a very good rate, but is highly efficient with his scoring. His passing really needs substantial work--even among SGs, he has one of the lowest assist/possession rates, and his high FGA/possession clearly indicates that he just shoots almost every time down. He doesn't turn the ball over, but at 6'4" with just a decent vert and subpar length, his commonplace scoring style of game with no passing ability makes his success rate real questionable in the NBA. He can potentially be a sparkplug who can excel scoring in a variety of ways, but he seriously needs to diversify his game.
Nando de Colo. Combo guard who rebounds well for a point guard and passes decently for a shooting guard, but he's a fairly poor passer for a point guard. Decidedly average in scoring efficiency--takes 40% of his shots from threes, but only shoots 35%, and he's very ordinary at getting to the line. Quite foul prone. Actually regressed from last year--his shooting took quite a tumble and his steals dropped significantly. Nothing really jumps out of you--seems like a jack of all trades, master of none type player, and if he were doing this in a 6'2" body rather than a 6'5" body I don't think he would even get him any draft interest.
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Arby's Roast Beef
Starter
Some more interesting players--
Rodrigue Beaubois. Probably too high at #31st, but can be a potential steal based on his physical tools alone. Among point guards, no one else in the draft enjoys his vertical/wingspan combination (6'2" with a 39' inch vert and a 6'9" wingspan), and that reminds me of Rajon Rondo a little bit. He's extremely, extremely raw right now--he's foul prone, and offensively he's a chucker who just strays away from his strengths--he rarely ever goes to the line despite his athleticism because he opts to shoot a high percentage of threes (he takes 50% of his shots as threes but only hits them at a 32% clip)--however, he can really finish--he was the best 2-pt shooter in the French League, so it's foolish of him to not attack more often. That's why he's not a 1st rounder, despite having 1st round type physical tools. But there's a ton of potential because his skillset can be easily corrected to slash more instead of shoot, and shooting's the easiest thing to develop. If we don't get Brandon Jennings, Beaubois could be a good guy to stash to see what happens with him.
Sergio Llull. A scorer/passer, in that order--no other player in the ACB has a higher FG/poss and assist/poss combination. Highly efficient combo guard whose preferred scoring method is raining threes, but decent at getting to the line. Underrated passer who protects the ball. Athletic markers are sound--pretty good rebounder and good stealer in his league. A highly skilled player with very few flaws, and decent upside as a sparkplug sort of player who can contribute right away. If we don't get Rubio, he's a guy to possibly consider.
Jermaine Taylor. Athletic testing revealed him to be a very good athlete (6'5" with 6'9" wingspan, with 37' vert) so it's safe to say his stock might be going up. Like Teague and Thornton, he's a shotjacker extraordinaire, and like the both of them he's an efficient scorer--but he actually plays away from his strengths a bit--he's one of the best 2-point shooters among SGs, but he chooses to take 40% of his shots from three (where he's decent at 37%) so he doesn't get to the line much at all. He always has one of the worst passing rates among SGs, but doesn't turn the ball over. In a sense, he's sort of like Marcus Thornton in strengths and weaknesses, but I have greater hope for Taylor because of the way he tested athleticallly--he's long and strong (and taller than Thornton), so I think he can carry out his scoring more easily. He's not a 1st rounder because he's one-dimensional, doesn't get to the line much, and seems to lack a degree of quickness, but he could be an okay pick at #31 (although I'm higher on other prospects).
Danny Green. Self-made player who didn't improve much between his junior and senior years, but changed his game up a bit--he became more of an accurate spot up three point shooter and reduced the turnovers, but at the same time slashed his rebound and free throw rates. He's what you would call a "smart" athlete much like Shane Battier--he ranks very well in key athletic markers, such as offensive rebounds, steals and blocks, but his draft results showed that he's just an average athlete--both in terms of leaping ability and quickness, although he has decent length. As noted, an absolute defensive stud--ranked on the top or very near the top in both steals and blocks among both SGs and SFs, although he's just an average rebounder. Offensively, he's definitely a preferred jumpshooter--he will rarely ever go to the line, mostly because he takes nearly half of his shots as three pointers. But he's efficient and smart, because he's a 42% three point shooter, while his percentage inside the arc is just ordinary. He's a good passer for SF standards, but quite ordinary for SG standards, but he doesn't turn the ball over. A smart player who knows his strengths, and has the three point shooting ability, defensive chops and some passing ability to carve a Battier-like role in the NBA. I actually really like his game--seems like a guy with enough skills and smarts to be a defensive stopper who can hold his own offensively, and is ready to contribute. Can be of good value at the #31st pick, but too many SFs sort of stymies that.
Sleepers:
CJ Jerrells and Tyrese Rice. Grouped them together because both are quite similar players. Both PGs/combo guards who look like they can make the transition. Jerrells actually switched up his game from past years--he had a same usage rate, but he became more of a passer than a scorer--his FG/poss dropped while his assist/poss rose. Rice also became more of a slasher and passer, but also became more turnover prone. Both are actually quite similar offensively--both are not very effective shooters at all from inside our outside (and in offensive efficiency, both rank near the middle to the bottom), but they're devastating because both take a ton of threes and get to the line very well--a feat that few combo guards in college can boast. Both are reasonable passers for SG standards, but only average as PGs. Jerrells is a slightly better rebounder, and Rice is a slightly better passer--so there's not much trade off. Both are actually better than AJ Price in my opinion, and probably would both be undrafted, so if we still need a PG/combo guard we can get one or both for summer league. Both don't have the best shot, but their shot mix along with respectable passing ability and decent athletic markers makes them possible NBA players in some degree.
Rodrigue Beaubois. Probably too high at #31st, but can be a potential steal based on his physical tools alone. Among point guards, no one else in the draft enjoys his vertical/wingspan combination (6'2" with a 39' inch vert and a 6'9" wingspan), and that reminds me of Rajon Rondo a little bit. He's extremely, extremely raw right now--he's foul prone, and offensively he's a chucker who just strays away from his strengths--he rarely ever goes to the line despite his athleticism because he opts to shoot a high percentage of threes (he takes 50% of his shots as threes but only hits them at a 32% clip)--however, he can really finish--he was the best 2-pt shooter in the French League, so it's foolish of him to not attack more often. That's why he's not a 1st rounder, despite having 1st round type physical tools. But there's a ton of potential because his skillset can be easily corrected to slash more instead of shoot, and shooting's the easiest thing to develop. If we don't get Brandon Jennings, Beaubois could be a good guy to stash to see what happens with him.
Sergio Llull. A scorer/passer, in that order--no other player in the ACB has a higher FG/poss and assist/poss combination. Highly efficient combo guard whose preferred scoring method is raining threes, but decent at getting to the line. Underrated passer who protects the ball. Athletic markers are sound--pretty good rebounder and good stealer in his league. A highly skilled player with very few flaws, and decent upside as a sparkplug sort of player who can contribute right away. If we don't get Rubio, he's a guy to possibly consider.
Jermaine Taylor. Athletic testing revealed him to be a very good athlete (6'5" with 6'9" wingspan, with 37' vert) so it's safe to say his stock might be going up. Like Teague and Thornton, he's a shotjacker extraordinaire, and like the both of them he's an efficient scorer--but he actually plays away from his strengths a bit--he's one of the best 2-point shooters among SGs, but he chooses to take 40% of his shots from three (where he's decent at 37%) so he doesn't get to the line much at all. He always has one of the worst passing rates among SGs, but doesn't turn the ball over. In a sense, he's sort of like Marcus Thornton in strengths and weaknesses, but I have greater hope for Taylor because of the way he tested athleticallly--he's long and strong (and taller than Thornton), so I think he can carry out his scoring more easily. He's not a 1st rounder because he's one-dimensional, doesn't get to the line much, and seems to lack a degree of quickness, but he could be an okay pick at #31 (although I'm higher on other prospects).
Danny Green. Self-made player who didn't improve much between his junior and senior years, but changed his game up a bit--he became more of an accurate spot up three point shooter and reduced the turnovers, but at the same time slashed his rebound and free throw rates. He's what you would call a "smart" athlete much like Shane Battier--he ranks very well in key athletic markers, such as offensive rebounds, steals and blocks, but his draft results showed that he's just an average athlete--both in terms of leaping ability and quickness, although he has decent length. As noted, an absolute defensive stud--ranked on the top or very near the top in both steals and blocks among both SGs and SFs, although he's just an average rebounder. Offensively, he's definitely a preferred jumpshooter--he will rarely ever go to the line, mostly because he takes nearly half of his shots as three pointers. But he's efficient and smart, because he's a 42% three point shooter, while his percentage inside the arc is just ordinary. He's a good passer for SF standards, but quite ordinary for SG standards, but he doesn't turn the ball over. A smart player who knows his strengths, and has the three point shooting ability, defensive chops and some passing ability to carve a Battier-like role in the NBA. I actually really like his game--seems like a guy with enough skills and smarts to be a defensive stopper who can hold his own offensively, and is ready to contribute. Can be of good value at the #31st pick, but too many SFs sort of stymies that.
Sleepers:
CJ Jerrells and Tyrese Rice. Grouped them together because both are quite similar players. Both PGs/combo guards who look like they can make the transition. Jerrells actually switched up his game from past years--he had a same usage rate, but he became more of a passer than a scorer--his FG/poss dropped while his assist/poss rose. Rice also became more of a slasher and passer, but also became more turnover prone. Both are actually quite similar offensively--both are not very effective shooters at all from inside our outside (and in offensive efficiency, both rank near the middle to the bottom), but they're devastating because both take a ton of threes and get to the line very well--a feat that few combo guards in college can boast. Both are reasonable passers for SG standards, but only average as PGs. Jerrells is a slightly better rebounder, and Rice is a slightly better passer--so there's not much trade off. Both are actually better than AJ Price in my opinion, and probably would both be undrafted, so if we still need a PG/combo guard we can get one or both for summer league. Both don't have the best shot, but their shot mix along with respectable passing ability and decent athletic markers makes them possible NBA players in some degree.
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ockingsfan
Starter
Taj Gibson would be a good pick up here... he measured in at 6'10" at the combine and is very athletic... he could be a poor mans david west....
1) Taj Gibson
2) Darren Collison
3) Patty Mills
1) Taj Gibson
2) Darren Collison
3) Patty Mills
Kingster
Hall of Famer
I really don't agree about Douglas. He was the only guy who could score at FSU. Of course he had to take a lot of shots. The opposing team could key entirely on him, with little thought to anybody else. Those other guys on FSU could defend, but they couldn't score worth a lick. Douglas is an incredible competitor. He's smooth. He can shoot. He defends. He's the fastest player in the draft. But more than anything, he really competes.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
kennadog
Dog On It!
Thanks for the chuckle.