Al Horford

#1
someone mentioned in another thread that if Joe Johnson leaves then maybe ATL will try to start over. If we get the no.2 pick then atl might want to start building around him? send them the no.2 pick for Horford and their pick? im not sure if they would do that but if they would then that would be a great way to get a very good big man in the middle. With their pick we can draft a shooter, or just sign mike miller.
 
#2
You can play Hortford at 5, but he’s a natural 4. The Hawks play him out of position a lot of the game, but they also have Smith, who is freak that can help out with his shot blocking and ability to get tough rebounds. A Landry/Hortford frontcourt would essentially be pairing David West and Buck Williams. I mean, you could do it … but I’m not sure where that gets you.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#5
I want to say upfront that I'm not by any means implying that Thompson is right now as good a player as Horford. As a matter of fact I love Horfords game and he's a much better low post defender than Thompson and has a better low post offense. He's a solid player.

Horford: 14.2 PPG - 9.9 RPG - 2.3 APG - 1.1 BPG
Thompson: 12.5 PPG - 8.5 RPG - 1.7 APG - 1.0 BPG

As you can see, they're not that far apart stat wise, and Horford just finished his third year while Thompson just finished his second. Now granted, Horford is the better player. But how much are you gaining and look what your giving up. Your giving up a chance at a potential superstar at best and possible all star at worse. Not to mention that Horford is really a true PF at just under 6'10" in shoes.

I just don't see where we gain that much, and I really doubt that Atlanta would deal Horford anyway. They would almost have to draft either Favors or Cousins. If they choose Favors, they might as well just stay with Horford. And despite what I might think about Cousins, there's no guarantee he would be better than Horford. So from their point of view, why do it? The only way they might gain is to draft either Wall or Turner, and then what do they do for a center?

Now if you want to trade Horford straight up for Thompson, then were talking.. Somehow I don't think they'd do that either.
 
#6
I want to say upfront that I'm not by any means implying that Thompson is right now as good a player as Horford. As a matter of fact I love Horfords game and he's a much better low post defender than Thompson and has a better low post offense. He's a solid player.

Horford: 14.2 PPG - 9.9 RPG - 2.3 APG - 1.1 BPG
Thompson: 12.5 PPG - 8.5 RPG - 1.7 APG - 1.0 BPG
And then you look at personal defense and FG%.
 
#8
Sorry Baja.. Clear reason why stats don't tell the whole story. Horford is much much better than Thompson.
I thought he showed that opinion when he said he would trade Thompson for Horford, but didn't think they would. Really I don't want to trade a draft pick(1-5) for him, just because I think its possible we could be getting a better and younger talent from the draft. Of course I have only seen stats too, so I don't really know how much better he is.
 
#9
There is, I believe, only one single better fit for this team as Al Horford and that is Dwight Howard. Horford is exactly what the Kings would need and I would happily trade everything outside of Evans and a top2 pick (and even if it were the second pick, I'd still not be sure) for him. However, as Brick said, it's not going to happen. Maybe the Hawks collapse to an unforeseeable degree and the Kings get a shot at him in 2012 -he becomes an unrestricted free agent if he chooses to sign the qualifying offer, right?- but otherwise, they will hold onto him.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#10
I love Horford. If you did get him, then Thompson would be part of the trade (back to Atlanta) because he is a pf. Doubt it will happen though. Much more probable is that they get rid of everybody except Horford. Still, it's worth a conversation if you're Petrie.
 
#11
Sorry Baja.. Clear reason why stats don't tell the whole story. Horford is much much better than Thompson.

I bet you that people who don't see Thompson that much have reversed your statement.


I've seen some of Horford, and if Thompson improves next year Thompson will probably be a better value throughout his career.
 
#12
Sorry Baja.. Clear reason why stats don't tell the whole story. Horford is much much better than Thompson.
Try some different, more comprehensive stats.

...........PER........Net production.....Roland Rating......+/-
AH......19.4..........+5.0......................+7.6............+10.9
JT........14.4.........-3.2........................-2.2............-0.6
 
#13
Try some different, more comprehensive stats.

...........PER........Net production.....Roland Rating......+/-
AH......19.4..........+5.0......................+7.6............+10.9
JT........14.4.........-3.2........................-2.2............-0.6

Well that just makes him look all bad, doesn't it?

I think that if JT finds his rhythm he'll be fine. He's got one more year on the big man growth suckitude curve, and I think he will solidify right around
14 ppg/9 rpg/ ~2 apg. Those are good numbers for today's starting C's/ backup PF's.
 
#14
Well that just makes him look all bad, doesn't it?
Not really. PER is very heavily weighted towards offensive stats, and undervalues defense. The other stats are more balanced, but most Kings players do badly on things like +/- because the team loses so much. Looking at those stats as if I'd never seen either guy play, I'd say that Horford was pretty clearly the better player at this point, but that JT is decent by Kings standards. As far as +/- and Roland Ratings, only Casspi and Udrih (of current* Kings) do significantly better, and only Udrih and Evans have better PERs. His net production is about average for a King.

I hope he'll get better too, even if I don't expect him to ever come close to living up to the "next Chris Webber" predictions that some made during his rookie year. I'll be more than content if he proves worthy of hanging onto a starting spot at either 4 or 5. And if he ends up as just a good guy off the bench, I'll be okay with that. We need those, too.
----
*Purely historical footnote, for the sake of completeness: Kevin and Sergio had higher PERs than JT, Sergio easily led the team in the +/-, RR type stats, and was a very close 2nd to Evans for net production.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
#15
Absolutely amazing. Did I not say that I thought Horford was the better player? Did I not say that I would trade Thompson straight up for Horford? What I wouldn't do is give up the 2nd pick in the draft for Horford. Look, I like Horford. At one time I was praying that the Kings would somehow get a shot at him in the draft. But the dude is not a superstar. I'm not even sure you can attach the word "star" to his name. Which could simply mean that he's a victim of the situation he's in.

But I feel that the second pick in this draft is going to be a star, and I'm not about to trade that away. Now if you want to talk about the 4th pick in the draft, I'm listening.

Just so everyone know. I'm not a big plus/minus guy. Way too abstract for me. I've watched players come into a game and score 10 points and grab 5 boards in 12 minutes and get a minus score. And I ask myself, just how is that possible. It depends too much on how the rest of the players on the floor are playing at the time. According to Synergy stats, the Kings team defense improves by a couple of points everytime he's on the floor. Does that make him a great defender? Just asking?

What I do know, is that Horford pulls down one rebound every 3.5 minutes he's on the floor, and Thompson pulls down one rebound every 3.7 minutes he's on the floor. Their blocked shot per minute ratio is almost identical. So in those two areas, Thompson is just as effective as Horford. Beyond that, Horford is the better player. And I would love to have him. Not going to happen though.
 
#16
Yeah, the whole topic is moot, I think. If we could get him at all, the price would be too high. I like Horford, and wanted us to draft him, but wouldn't give a top 3 pick for him. Not this year.
 
#18
Horford is nice, but he is no more than a role player. Think about it.. would you give away a #2 pick for a role player? Are we overrating Horford that much?
 
#19
Horford is a really good player, had to play center in Atl which was BS
they shudda started
Pachulla -c
Horford-pf
Smith- sf
Johnson-sg
Bibby-pg
THats a good squad, Atl and cleveland just got out coached badly, Orl is good but Atl roster is good as well. I would love to get Al, but i dont think its a reality.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#20
Horford is a really good player, had to play center in Atl which was BS
they shudda started
Pachulla -c
Horford-pf
Smith- sf
Johnson-sg
Bibby-pg
THats a good squad, Atl and cleveland just got out coached badly, Orl is good but Atl roster is good as well. I would love to get Al, but i dont think its a reality.
Atlanta may have a good roster, but apparently not nearly as good as Orlando's. I think when you get swept 4 straight, and you have a fairly experienced team, its time to go back to the drawing board.

Atlanta is exactly where I don't want the Kings to end up. They'll only be around 9 mil under the cap and thats after Joe Johnson comes off the books. So they'll have just enough money to sign a decent to good player, but not enough to put them at the next level. It leaves the stuck where they're just good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to go very far in the playoffs. Their almost staring at a total makeover.