A Stats Thread: What the Numbers Say About Rondo and Gay
- Thread starter Bricklayer
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c-webb1s#1
Starter
I'm still very torn on what i'd be willing to pay Rondo if I was the Kings. On one hand I do think he is a special talent and on the other I see Collison. Overall I think i'd like him back. I wanna see what he can do with another year playing together with our core guys. We need stability on all fronts and Rondo can solidify that at the PG position.
That leaves you wondering though what to do with Collison if you keep Rondo. I do not think that back court pairing of them is a recipe for defensive success. Then again, maybe with the right coach it can be.
My mouth is watering at the though of WCS coming back next season with 10-15lbs of muscle. That could be the x-factor for us on the defensive end.
That leaves you wondering though what to do with Collison if you keep Rondo. I do not think that back court pairing of them is a recipe for defensive success. Then again, maybe with the right coach it can be.
My mouth is watering at the though of WCS coming back next season with 10-15lbs of muscle. That could be the x-factor for us on the defensive end.
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kingsboi
Hall of Famer
I don't doubt it. Vlade needs to bring in some defensive minded players for starters, either that or hope the new coach can help whip these guys in shape and have them commit to defense more through out a 82 game season and not in a one or two week spurt.
Glenn
Hall of Famer
I think part of what keeps coaches away from the Kings is their reputation of being unstable mentally. As much as people might want to blame that all on Boogie, I think Rondo contributes a great deal. In fact, one of the most stable people we have on the team is Collison who could replace Rondo. I don't know if the group mental stability as well as their interest in defense is valued highly but I hope it is and I hope players are picked and traded with stability and defense in mind. I realize a player should not yell at his coach but I also am bothered by a player who yells bigoted epithets at an official in public. I can understand the former far easier than the latter or perhaps my understanding of the latter disgusts me.
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kingsboi
Hall of Famer
I can understand bringing up Rondo, if Vlade mentions to the candidates that he is strongly considering bringing Rondo back. However, we don't know if he will be back, so it's all speculation from there. So what do you have after Rondo, well you have a meddling owner that coaches do not want to deal with, and if they do deal with it, they have to absolutely know they will not be canned within a season or two.
Glenn
Hall of Famer
This is in part why I got angry when Vivek said that McHale was stuck on something. He learned that in discussing issues over the phone with McHale. I didn't care what the issue was. It was the fact that Vivek was negotiating with a candidate far from the time the evaluating phase was over. There is what might be a minor problem that McHale might not want his negotiations made public. There is a sense that something is not in control.
whozit
Starter
You've made this assertion before. I haven't seen any link or any reports other than a throwaway line by Woj in regards to McHale and Vivek. I don't remember the exact words but it simply indicated something along the lines that Vivek favored him. There was nothing in that article indicating negotiations were going on between the two. I don't see everything and miss a lot, do you have something else besides that article to back that up as fact?
Glenn
Hall of Famer
We may be using the term negotiating differently. I call it a negotiation when a man who could be the boss is talking with the potential person he might hire a negotiation. Perhaps Vivek was just trying to arrange a time to have coffee. I have seen word games played for a decade and a half on this forum and don't care to take part. My main issue was Vivek sticking his nose into a discussion as yet defined in a way that all people will agree to. If peole see this as Vivek'd role, so be it. I think it is Vlade's.
I am not clever enough to know which lines should be taken seriously and which are throw away lines. My concern had more to do with Vivek's sticking his nose in this than the proper use of the word negotiation,
http://hoopshype.com/rumor/1051716/
whozit
Starter
'Most intrigued,' that was the phrase used. "League sources" were quoted. With whom, what, when and where weren't stated. I will agree that at the very least Vivek slipped. He at the very least gave an opinion to someone who repeated it. Beyond that, who knows? I don't and that was why I was asking if there was something beyond that article. It doesn't even say if Vivek talked with him personally.
Vivek has rightfully been slammed for his stupidity in his actions in the past. Last year, he stayed in the shadows. I would like to think he learned a painful and expensive lesson. As a fan all I can do is hope.
Ron
Starter
This!!
And the 2nd option would be easier.
I've just read what @randymoss1881 wrote on another thread,
about how Blatt managed to make a lineup with Love, Irving & Smith
play defense!
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Livinthedream
All-Star
Speaking of Benny he was one of the 3 guys along with Boogie and Casspi, who ended the season with + as in team scored more with him on the floor than it allowed. Last year only Boogie and Collison (likely aided by not playing the worst part of the season) did it, but BMac was 3rd as well. That's it: Ben was second most valuable player on this team!
https://twitter.com/DeanO_Lytics/status/727163263579000832
This tweet reminded me of your post.
Stats.....
Everyone always applauds Rondo for plays like this because he make the right coaching decision to send Boogie to the corner. Then he turns around and just watches the play from the paint, guarding absolutely nobody and was well on his way to giving up a wide open three to Korver if not for Willie's great defensive play in batting the ball away.
This is his year in a nutshell. Gets credit for making the smart play by sending Boogie to the corner, while people forget or just don't even notice how incredibly dumb his own play can be. You notice steals, you notice him coaching the other players but in the middle of the action you don't notice him standing around doing nothing unless you're making it a point to pay attention to him.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
I've heard that remark about that clip a few times, but I think people are missing what Rondo is really doing there.
He told Boogie to go guard one corner. And then Rondo is lurking in position to either cut off a pass or challenge the other corner. Basically he told Boogie to help him take away the two corner threes.
He's essentially gambling on that play and if not for WCS's length, Korver has a wide open look with a second left on the clock. That play is the Kings 2016 defense in a nutshell. Collison is on Korver, when Bazemore comes off the screen, Collison is forced to leave Korver to cover Bazemore. A guy with a high basketball IQ like Rondo should know that now Korver is his responsibility since Collison can't possibly cover two players at once. Instead, Rondo is just hanging out watching everything happen from a spot on the court where he couldn't possibly defend anyone attempting a 3. That play was as easy to defend as it gets because the only shot they needed to take was a 3 and we almost blew it if not for a rookies penchant for getting his hands on inbound passes.
I saw that exact scenario happen every game, all year long. It just wasn't noticeable because people aren't bringing up what happened at the 5:36 mark of the 2nd quarter in a game against the Pelicans when the Kings are 10 games under .500. It's those plays that cost us dearly. Those are plays that a guy like Pop or Malone call a timeout immediately after and give said player a tongue lashing for guarding absolutely nothing.
I love Rondo's leadership and playmaking skills but I'm completely at a loss as to how one of the elite defensive PG's in the league could go from making first and second all defensive teams to looking like a total turd out there that just gambles for steals and chases butterflies mid play.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Don't know what to say. I spent entire games last season with my focus entirely on Rondo for the entire game. There are moments, and I mean a lot of moments, where he makes no attempt to keep his man in front of him. He just lets his man go. Now you can sugarcoat it anyway you want, but that's terrible defense. The fact that he has Cousins behind him to stop the ball, doesn't mean that Rondo is suddenly a good defender. It means Cousins is a good defender. Cousins is terrific at plugging the lane. He has excellent instincts in that area.
Why preytell are we trying to make up excuses for Rondo? Call him a center fielder, or any other thing you want, his defense stinks. Period!!!!!! Were not talking about Cousins defense, or team defense, were talking about Rondo's defense. The fact that Cousins, or the team can cover up for him doesn't make him a good defender. He simply doesn't pass the eye test. I don't give a damm what the stats say.
Why preytell are we trying to make up excuses for Rondo? Call him a center fielder, or any other thing you want, his defense stinks. Period!!!!!! Were not talking about Cousins defense, or team defense, were talking about Rondo's defense. The fact that Cousins, or the team can cover up for him doesn't make him a good defender. He simply doesn't pass the eye test. I don't give a damm what the stats say.
My god man, if you think that's terrible defense by Rondo on that play than we don't even speak the same language. He put DeMarcus and Omri exactly where they needed to be to bust the play and then he stayed in perfect position to deny the pass to the far corner. Atlanta was down 3 with 1.9 seconds on the clock -- the only way the Hawks could even force OT in that situation was with a three. He's not standing in the middle of the court guarding nobody -- he's on the balls of his feet watching the action and anticipating the play. Yes Al Horford ultimately beats him to the ball off the deflection but by the time he picks it up he has his back to the basket two steps inside the three point arc with 0.4 on the clock and the game is effectively over already.
And Baja -- this is why it doesn't make sense to me to call Rondo a terrible defender. That was a brilliant defensive play that maybe a half dozen players in the NBA are capable of making. I couldn't name the others though. Rondo may be the only one. Part of the reason Rondo gets so much criticism (most of it unwarranted imo) is that he thinks the game at a level that's beyond most fans' comprehension. What do most people appreciate when they watch a basketball game? Usually it's individual athleticism or spectacular displays of skill. Maybe it's a defender who gets up in your face and flusters you like Tony Allen or Ron Artest. Maybe it's a Steph Curry midcourt bomb or an Allen Iverson ankle breaking crossover. Mastery of the offensive playbook isn't something that gets shown on Sportscenter though. And obsessively studying other teams' plays to the point where you can identify the playcall in real-time in the middle of a game, anticipate the screens and cuts before they happen, and make the other team look like the keystone cops running themselves in circles and getting nowhere is full-on basketball genius.
When I used to work on film sets there's a phrase that all of the veterans like to use: "work smart not hard". It sounded like laziness to me but there's nothing lazy about it -- if you zoom around He-Maning combo stands and expending all of your energy you're not going to make it through a 40 day shoot much less a career. That's pure wisdom from those who know better. One of the big plays that Rondo built his reputation on early in his career was this dive for a loose ball against Orlando:
There was an article a few years back when Keyon Dooling talked about trying to teach Rondo exactly what those crew members were trying to teach me:
Rondo got older and he started playing smarter rather than harder. Fake hustle doesn't win you anything. I don't need to see him dive for loose balls when he reads passing angles and rebounding caroms better than any other guard in the league. I'm not going to knock any gifted defensive stopper but there's a whole lot more to playing defense than just one guy moving his feet and staying in front of his man. When Rondo played in Boston Tom Thibodeau taught a trapping style of defense where the guards would force the ballhandler into a waiting help defender. Rondo wasn't the center fielder or the free safety in that system, he was the funnel and KG was the ant lion. Most defenders react to the offensive player but that puts you at a competitive disadvantage. How do you get an offensive player to go where you want them to go on the floor? By giving them enough space to think you've made a mistake and they're going to beat you. Only instead of an open jumper they run right into the help defense. Just like pick and roll offense only works with two players working together, sometimes the best defensive strategies require multiple players to work together in unison.
I get tired of battling against the current and I know people just tune me out anyway as some kind of Rondo fanboy but I'll tell you what-- he's one of the most uniquely gifted basketball players I've ever seen and it's a shame his artistry is so rarely appreciated for what it is. I loved Jason Williams' flashy moves when he played for the Kings but Geoff Petrie traded him when it was time to start winning playoff games. Rondo is like the anti-Jason Williams because when he's absolutely at the peak of his abilities, nobody even notices. Often it looks like he's hardly doing anything at all -- one dribble, two more dribbles, a simple bounce pass, open layup. Or worse he's called a stat-stuffer who's "selfishly" setting up his teammates with wide open shots for his own nefarious monetary goals. Is Steph Curry shooting 11 threes a game any less "selfish"? Rondo became one of my all-time favorite players because it's so damn fun for me to watch him play. I'm sorry other people don't enjoy watching him, I genuinely am. But there's nothing I can do to change that. A lot of people my age don't understand what's so fun about watching baseball because they never learned how to see the game within the game -- the mental chess match going on inside the players' heads. To appreciate what makes Rondo so good you have to see the game within the game.
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Ron
Starter
Not trying to act as the peace keeper here, but I really think both of you have it at least half-right...
Rondo WAS slacking on D too often this season (BTW, the fact that a player in his age and injury history got to play WAY more minutes than any other King, including 2 non-stop 48-minute games didn't do him much service and was actually almost criminal...
)On the other hand I think Brick has a point, as trap defensive schemes HAVE become pretty common in the league.
I see those all the time - perimeter defenders lure a good shooter to give up a 3-pointer for a seemingly easy layup by creating a driving lane, and then the driver has the D formation collapsing on him or is routed into a shot blocker.
Oh, and BTW - Rondo IS great fun to watch, and he sure has that jaw-dropping fantastic BBall-IQ.
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That was a brilliant play that maybe half a dozen players in the NBA can make? Surely you must be joking there. The Hawks were down 3 and needed a 3 to tie it. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to realize that the only area of the court you need to cover is the three point line. You are giving Rondo entirely way too much credit for being "smart" enough to realize what every single fan in the arena and watching at home already knew.
He's guarding absolutely nobody. Unless a Hawk ran over to the far corner, he forced the team to play 4 on 5 defense. If he was so smart he would have been further out on the 3 point line to cut off anyone who wanted to run to the corner...while being able to actually guard someone instead of just standing around watching Omri and Collison struggle to guard two players at once. Horford getting to the ball before him is a moot point. The point is that him standing at the elbow forced the Kings into a 4 on 5 situation where Korver was going to have an easy wide open three if not for the length of WCS. Rondo was guarding an empty space on the floor while the rest of the guys on the team were actually guarding players. If Rondo is anticipating plays as well as you think he does, then he would have realized that him standing in that spot was going to allow someone to end up with an open look on the near side of the court.
You guys can twist it anyway you like but this kind of "defense" gives up way more points than it saves. I don't care if Rondo gets 2 steals a game because he gives up a ton of wide open looks to get those two steals. The difference is that the wide open shots don't translate to the box score as some sort of stat, whereas the steals do. So they go unnoticed as individual screw ups.
K
KingMilz
Guest
He would have to be on some serious Mexican supplements to get that
upinsmoke
All-Star
What kind of disrespectful $## is that?
Cousins is slowly on his way to being an elite defender. That's the scary thing. The only thing stopping him from reaching that point is probably the referee arguing. He's an all around defensive player. Strong enough to to stay in front of any big in the NBA. Quick enough to guard all centers. He has amazing defensive instincts. He can shot block and swipe the ball away. If he becomes more disciplined and gets back on D faster, he's going to be elite. Hes worked extremely hard on that end.
Having Cousins/WCS behind Rondo helps him a ton. if JT was the starter, I think we'd see how horrible Rondo really is. JT doesn't possess the shotblocking skill that WCS does. He wouldn't be able to makeup for lack luster defense from Rondo. WCS can. Great praise for our rookie....not so much for the former defensive 1st all team. Maybe if we get Vogel, he'll force Rondo to reconsider his effort on that side. And here's the thing that bugs me a bit...if the Kings made the playoffs, 2009 Rondo defense would be activated..just needs to put in the effort.
Having Cousins/WCS behind Rondo helps him a ton. if JT was the starter, I think we'd see how horrible Rondo really is. JT doesn't possess the shotblocking skill that WCS does. He wouldn't be able to makeup for lack luster defense from Rondo. WCS can. Great praise for our rookie....not so much for the former defensive 1st all team. Maybe if we get Vogel, he'll force Rondo to reconsider his effort on that side. And here's the thing that bugs me a bit...if the Kings made the playoffs, 2009 Rondo defense would be activated..just needs to put in the effort.
upinsmoke
All-Star
I've never heard of this before. Lol actually.
Definitely agree. WCS is two inches taller than Cousins. But Boogie's wingspan is 3 inches longer and his standing reach is 2 inches longer. He's got elite length, great strength, good foot speed and remarkable quickness for a guy his size. He also has great on court awareness. I don't think he gets nearly enough credit for how good he's become as a defender. Cousins has gone from being "the best offensive center" in the NBA to just flat out being the best center.
As for getting back on D faster, that's where a guy like Vogel could really help. Much more emphasis on defense and a slower pace on the offensive end will both help in Cousins changing sides to help defend. About the only way Karl's offense helped Boogie on defense is that sometimes he'd be at the top of three point arc when a shot went up and had a shorter distance to run back.
The thing with Rondo is that I didn't see any physical reason he couldn't play better D. Seth Curry isn't as quick or as strong as Rondo and his wingspan is 5 inches shorter yet he got into guys defensively, even in Karl's terrible system. But if Brad Stevens, Rick Carlisle and George Karl couldn't get Rondo to play more defense I'm not sure that Vogel would either, especially after Rajon signs a fat new deal.
I'm torn on bringing Rondo back. It really depends on the coach hired and what type of offense he wants to run as well as whether he can/will defend at a higher level in a different system for a different coach. But the issue with not re-signing Rondo is that caproom is generally not as useful for the Kings as it is for teams in bigger markets or with a history of success. Outside of Ryan Anderson (who many have speculated wants to come back home), who would the Kings realistically spend that money on if they don't bring back Rondo? I don't see them landing any of the three B's (Batum, Bazemore or Barnes) so it might end up be gambling on a young guy like Allen Crabbe. And despite Crabbe being 6'6" Rondo out rebounded him significantly and the two shot nearly the same percentage from the field on about the same number of shots per minute.
Warts and all, is Rondo the best the Kings are going to get for their money? Tough question to answer.
What could the Kings get in trade for Gay, Collison, McLemore, Belinelli and maybe Koufos to build around Rondo/WCS/Cousins? What kind of a shooter could they nab in the draft? Could Hield fall to the Kings? Or should they package the pick for more immediate help?
Lots of questions to answer. But I do think a lineup
PG Rondo
SG 3&D
SF 3&D
PF Cauley-Stein
C Cousins
with guys like Anderson, Casspi & Curry off the bench could do well, especially under a coach like Vogel.
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ockingsfan
Starter
Whether Rondo returns or not, I think lies largely on who our new coach will be.
If it is Vogel, an all Defense first coach, then I can easily see the Kings passing on Rondo and starting Darren Collison next year.
If we have a guy like VDN or Woodson, then Rondo would probably have a good chance of coming back.
What ever happens at PG, the Kings need to get an athletic wing defender at the SG.
If it is Vogel, an all Defense first coach, then I can easily see the Kings passing on Rondo and starting Darren Collison next year.
If we have a guy like VDN or Woodson, then Rondo would probably have a good chance of coming back.
What ever happens at PG, the Kings need to get an athletic wing defender at the SG.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
On that one, not sure whether DC would be happy for Vogel to show up or not. DC was brought in to be the PG during Vogel's first years, and he kinda failed and got dumped. He'd be an obvious player we could use as a bridge to help learn Vogel's system, but not sure Vogel be eager to have him as his starter again.
On the other hand Vogel/Indian have no history at all of a Rondo type PG, although that may be due to Paul George dominating the ball and necessitating PG roleplayers next to him.
2 things thoguh:
1) I have to keep reminding people, Rajon Rondo is BY FAR the most defnesively accomplished Sacramento King since Ron Artest. That doesn't mean he plays good defense. It does mean if I am a coach looking to play good defense I'd take the guy who was once elite at it over a bunch of shrugs and unproven guys.
2) Good ways to counter/supplement a defense-first coach are to give him a superstar or a big time passing PG. Since you know he is not going to generate much easy offense with his offensive schemes, you need one or two brilliant individuals around that can create offense for themselves and others without much hep from the coach.
Yes, and George Karl has the most career wins of any coach the Kings ever and Kobe Bryant is a former slam dunk champion. What a guy used to do isn't really a justification for paying him today. It's true that Rondo would be able to help out in breaking down film or showing young players how he used to do it but it's much cheaper to hire an assistant coach. . .
Now, to my eyes Rondo doesn't look incapable of still playing decent to good defense, just uninterested. Whether he will or not is a big part of the decision on whether to re-sign him.
This I can agree with. If David Blatt or Etorre Messina is hired I think Rondo is likely allowed to walk because their offenses have never been based around a ball dominant PG and both require a lot of ball movement. Blatt would also probably want more of a shooter in his Princeton influenced scheme.
If McHale were the guy I could see Rondo going or staying, likely staying. Lurch has always been more malleable with his offense and could see the value in a PG who knows how to feed the post.
Vogel's offense could allow for Rondo to control a lot of the action.
That said, I think Vogel is a fine offensive coach. He runs a LOT of different stuff. Zipper offense, Flex action, Horns sets - he's even borrowed (I'm actually not sure where this comes from) the Warriors "elevator door" screens which I still say are often illegal. He definitely runs a lot of stuff to free up shooters off screens and not a lot of post action. Whether that's because of the personnel he's had in Indy or his own philosophy I don't know but I'd lean towards roster-based because he seems pretty flexible in the stuff he runs.
I think he'd find ways to play to Rondo and Cousin's strengths.
ockingsfan
Starter
For me, I think Vogel is more the "smash mouth", "grind them in to a pulp" type coach, rather than a free flowing, let the PG improvise type of coach.
Rondo does not do well with coaches with grind them down, structured offenses, see Rick Carlisle.
Rondo does well with coaches that give him free reign to improvise, see Doc Rivers and George Karl.
I can see Rondo butting heads with Vogel, if Vogel wants to grind things out, instead of opening the offense up.
Rondo does not do well with coaches with grind them down, structured offenses, see Rick Carlisle.
Rondo does well with coaches that give him free reign to improvise, see Doc Rivers and George Karl.
I can see Rondo butting heads with Vogel, if Vogel wants to grind things out, instead of opening the offense up.
Telemachus
Starter
Both Paul George and Lance Stevenson had a lot of freedom under Vogel. I could see it going either way with Vogel, but he seems to be more than willing to adapt based on his personnel.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
If we can get Rondo back for close to the same money we paid him last season, I'm on board. But if it takes 20 or so mil to bring him back, then let him walk. I'm sticking to my guns on this one. I've watched a lot of players play in the NBA and I know when a player is playing good defense, and when he's not. Please don't insult my intelligence by cherry picking a few plays here and there to demonstrate how good a defender Rondo is. Total nonsense. You mush be trying to convince yourself, because your not convincing me.
As mentioned a little earlier, Rondo can also be a ticking time bomb if he doesn't get to run the team the way he wants. He bumped heads with Doc Rivers time and time again. He couldn't get along with Carlsile. He loved playing here last year because Karl let him do what he wanted. That's not likely to happen with a new coach. I can put up with his defense for 10 mil, but not for 20 mil.
As mentioned a little earlier, Rondo can also be a ticking time bomb if he doesn't get to run the team the way he wants. He bumped heads with Doc Rivers time and time again. He couldn't get along with Carlsile. He loved playing here last year because Karl let him do what he wanted. That's not likely to happen with a new coach. I can put up with his defense for 10 mil, but not for 20 mil.
