A Stats Thread: What the Numbers Say About Rondo and Gay

A

Amit149

Bench
#61
#61
bajaden said:
If we can get Rondo back for close to the same money we paid him last season, I'm on board. But if it takes 20 or so mil to bring him back, then let him walk. I'm sticking to my guns on this one. I've watched a lot of players play in the NBA and I know when a player is playing good defense, and when he's not. Please don't insult my intelligence by cherry picking a few plays here and there to demonstrate how good a defender Rondo is. Total nonsense. You mush be trying to convince yourself, because your not convincing me.

As mentioned a little earlier, Rondo can also be a ticking time bomb if he doesn't get to run the team the way he wants. He bumped heads with Doc Rivers time and time again. He couldn't get along with Carlsile. He loved playing here last year because Karl let him do what he wanted. That's not likely to happen with a new coach. I can put up with his defense for 10 mil, but not for 20 mil.
Click to expand...
What's the market for Rondo out there? I asked that this summer because I found it odd we gave a guy with practically no alternatives a 1 year 10 million bounce back deal (instead of a longer one with team options/partially guaranteed money) and I don't think it has changed that much.

Rondo's stock is obviously far higher now but which teams are we fighting against? most teams are already commited to a PG:
Hawks (Teague/Schroder), Bucks (MCW/Giannis), Celtics (IT/Smart), Hornets (Kemba), Cavs (Irving), Pistons (Jackson), Indiana (Hill), Miami (Dragic), Orlando (Payton), Toronto (Lowry), Washington (Wall), Denver (Mudiay), GS (Curry), Houston (Beverley/Harden to some extent), Clippers (CP3), Lakers (Clarckson/Russell), Minnesota (Rubio/LaVine), NO (Holiday/Evans), OKC (Westbrook), Phoenix (Bledsoe), Portland (Lillard) and SA (Parker)- are all highly unlikely imo to make major moves at acquiring a starting PG, that's 22 out of 29 teams and leave us with:

Brooklyn, Chicago, Knicks, 76ers, Dallas, Memphis and Utah.

We can go ahead and cross Dallas off the list.
Memphis would most likely try to resign Conley (which is probably the safe bet here).
Utah seems to be really confident about Exum going forward (they didn't even try to use their capspace during the season to make moves at PG).

Which most likely leave us with 4 potential suitors:
I put Chicago here becuase I'm not sure what's going to happen with them with a possible Butler trade and Rose would be on an expiring contract next year, so it is a possibility.

Rondo always seemed like a bad fit in the triangle imo and it didn't look like they had much interest in him last year- but the Knicks are a possible destination.

Signing Rondo to a huge contract would be a classic Nets move, but I'm not sure the new FO is going to take that risk and approach.

I don't know what the 76ers are going to do now that Hinkie is gone, but I think it's much more likely they'll draft a PG and they can also try and retain Ish Smith.

All of that was just a really long way of saying that I'm not sure that the market for him even exists- for all the talk about his bounce back season, he is still a really awkward fit in the modern NBA, showed very little on the defensive end for 2 contracts year in a row, has a bad image around the league and his on/off numbers have been fiarly unimpressive dating back to his last seasons as a Celtic- I think that getting him at about the same contract he has now might be possible.
 
G

Gilles

Starter
#62
#62
Rondo's market besides Kings are Knicks and likely Grizzlies as Conley said after the last PO game something like "I look forward to new acquisitions this summer", which is a code for "Give me better roster or I'm gone", and not simple "I would like to stay" - code for "We'll see, how it plays out, but I like it here".
Interestingly I saw an article of Detroit writer, who suggests signing Rondo to backup Reggie Jackson. Not saying, that it would ever happen :), just a note on how Rondo's value/current ability is perceived in another part of NBA world.
 
A

Amit149

Bench
#63
#63
Gilles said:
Rondo's market besides Kings are Knicks and likely Grizzlies as Conley said after the last PO game something like "I look forward to new acquisitions this summer", which is a code for "Give me better roster or I'm gone", and not simple "I would like to stay" - code for "We'll see, how it plays out, but I like it here".
Interestingly I saw an article of Detroit writer, who suggests signing Rondo to backup Reggie Jackson. Not saying, that it would ever happen :), just a note on how Rondo's value/current ability is perceived in another part of NBA world.
Click to expand...
The thing about Rondo as a backup is that I think a lot of teams will hesitate to do that because of chemistry issues, and besides that how much money a team is going to spend for a 30 year old backup PG?
I doubt he'll get big offers elsewhere and I got the feeling if it's up to Vlade Rondo we'll be back next year unless the coach Vlade picks doesn't want him.
 
funkykingston

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
#64
#64
Amit149 said:
What's the market for Rondo out there? I asked that this summer because I found it odd we gave a guy with practically no alternatives a 1 year 10 million bounce back deal (instead of a longer one with team options/partially guaranteed money) and I don't think it has changed that much.

Rondo's stock is obviously far higher now but which teams are we fighting against? most teams are already commited to a PG:
Hawks (Teague/Schroder), Bucks (MCW/Giannis), Celtics (IT/Smart), Hornets (Kemba), Cavs (Irving), Pistons (Jackson), Indiana (Hill), Miami (Dragic), Orlando (Payton), Toronto (Lowry), Washington (Wall), Denver (Mudiay), GS (Curry), Houston (Beverley/Harden to some extent), Clippers (CP3), Lakers (Clarckson/Russell), Minnesota (Rubio/LaVine), NO (Holiday/Evans), OKC (Westbrook), Phoenix (Bledsoe), Portland (Lillard) and SA (Parker)- are all highly unlikely imo to make major moves at acquiring a starting PG, that's 22 out of 29 teams and leave us with:

Brooklyn, Chicago, Knicks, 76ers, Dallas, Memphis and Utah.

We can go ahead and cross Dallas off the list.
Memphis would most likely try to resign Conley (which is probably the safe bet here).
Utah seems to be really confident about Exum going forward (they didn't even try to use their capspace during the season to make moves at PG).

Which most likely leave us with 4 potential suitors:
I put Chicago here becuase I'm not sure what's going to happen with them with a possible Butler trade and Rose would be on an expiring contract next year, so it is a possibility.

Rondo always seemed like a bad fit in the triangle imo and it didn't look like they had much interest in him last year- but the Knicks are a possible destination.

Signing Rondo to a huge contract would be a classic Nets move, but I'm not sure the new FO is going to take that risk and approach.

I don't know what the 76ers are going to do now that Hinkie is gone, but I think it's much more likely they'll draft a PG and they can also try and retain Ish Smith.

All of that was just a really long way of saying that I'm not sure that the market for him even exists- for all the talk about his bounce back season, he is still a really awkward fit in the modern NBA, showed very little on the defensive end for 2 contracts year in a row, has a bad image around the league and his on/off numbers have been fiarly unimpressive dating back to his last seasons as a Celtic- I think that getting him at about the same contract he has now might be possible.
Click to expand...
I agree that there won't be a huge market for Rondo. I would disagree on the Bucks & Wolves being set at PG. Minny may let Rubio walk and Kidd turned to Gianni's because MCW wasn't working. That said I don't know that either would turn to Rondo. I think the Knicks are the team most likely to go after Rajon.

If they start FA by offering him a big deal then you tell him thanks and let him go. If not, the Kings are likely in the driver's seat.

Of course it also depends on who is hired to coach and if Rondo fits with what they want to do.
 
PBNJ85

PBNJ85

G-League
#65
#65
bajaden said:
If we can get Rondo back for close to the same money we paid him last season, I'm on board. But if it takes 20 or so mil to bring him back, then let him walk. I'm sticking to my guns on this one. I've watched a lot of players play in the NBA and I know when a player is playing good defense, and when he's not. Please don't insult my intelligence by cherry picking a few plays here and there to demonstrate how good a defender Rondo is. Total nonsense. You mush be trying to convince yourself, because your not convincing me.

As mentioned a little earlier, Rondo can also be a ticking time bomb if he doesn't get to run the team the way he wants. He bumped heads with Doc Rivers time and time again. He couldn't get along with Carlsile. He loved playing here last year because Karl let him do what he wanted. That's not likely to happen with a new coach. I can put up with his defense for 10 mil, but not for 20 mil.
Click to expand...
Completely agree. As usual....
 
A

Amit149

Bench
#66
#66
funkykingston said:
I agree that there won't be a huge market for Rondo. I would disagree on the Bucks & Wolves being set at PG. Minny may let Rubio walk and Kidd turned to Gianni's because MCW wasn't working. That said I don't know that either would turn to Rondo. I think the Knicks are the team most likely to go after Rajon.

If they start FA by offering him a big deal then you tell him thanks and let him go. If not, the Kings are likely in the driver's seat.

Of course it also depends on who is hired to coach and if Rondo fits with what they want to do.
Click to expand...
I agree (at first I mentioned them as teams in need of a PG) but the reason I didn't for the Bucks is that they paid a lot for MCW and with them wanting to try Giannis at point Rondo is about as bad a fit as you can find.

Minnesota is a weird case, Rubio is kind of a similar player to Rondo and I'm not sure why they'll turn to Rondo if he doesn't work (and Rubio has a long term contract with them)... they also got LaVine who I think they want to atleast try at PG and there is always the chance of them drafting a PG like Dunn.

I'm not sure Rondo fits the triangle but they need a PG and after Conley it's not a good FA PG class (unless they are counting on Linsanity 2.0)- so it is possible.
 
twslam07

twslam07

Starter
#67
#67
Does the offense score more points per 100 possessions w/ Rondo on the court? Yes
On Court: Offensive Points Per 100 Possessions = 107.3
Off Court: Offensive Points Per 100 Possessions = 106.9
Net Difference: +0.4 Points Per 100 Possessions

Does the defense allow less points per 100 possessions w/ Rondo on the court? No
On Court: Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions = 110.1
Off Court: Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions = 108.4
Net Difference: +1.7 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions (Positive is bad)

Does the team have a better point differential per 100 possessions w/ Rondo on the court? No
Offensive Net Difference: +0.4 Points Per 100 Possessions
Defensive Net Difference: +1.7 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
Net Net Difference: (+0.4 Points Per 100 Possessions) - (+1.7 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions) = -1.4 Net Net Differential

When Rondo is on the floor we are worse by 1.4 Points Per 100 Possessions. For reference, when Collison plays PG, his Net Net Differntial is +1.8 Points Per 100 Possesions (meaning we are 1.8 points better when Collison is at PG). Even Curry has a better Net Net Differential when he played PG (-0.7 Net Net Differential).

He doesn't really look like a player you want to throw big money at & lock up as one of the core pieces moving forward. You can try to hide his deficiencies by pairing his stats with Cousins, but if you're going to be throwing big money at a player, the hope is that this player can help your team win no matter who is on the floor with him. If we don't want to look at Rondo's stats in isolation, than Rondo should be looked at as a roleplayer and thus paid as one ($8-10 mil).

By the way when Gay played SF, our team was 4.2 points better than our opponents per 100 possessions. I'd be fine hanging on to him IF we exclusively play him at SF. If we do a Koufos/Casspi/McLemore deal for guys like T. Evans & Jerebko coming back, I'd be pretty happy. Then you go out and sign a C. Lee, Curry, S. Hill, Aldrich, & Acy and call it a day. Then the 8th pick is just a luxury at this point.

PG - Collison/Curry
SG - Lee/Evans/Anderson
SF - Gay/Hill/Butler
PF - Cauley-Stein/Jerebko/Acy
C - Cousins/Aldrich
 
G

Gilles

Starter
#68
#68
Next coach, whoever he may be, will most likely take a lot more different approach than Karl on both ends of the floor and get a different effort level next season, which makes stats of the past season pretty irrelevant for estimating this roster's potential or possible summer acquisitions.
 
Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#69
#69
twslam07 said:
Does the offense score more points per 100 possessions w/ Rondo on the court? Yes
On Court: Offensive Points Per 100 Possessions = 107.3
Off Court: Offensive Points Per 100 Possessions = 106.9
Net Difference: +0.4 Points Per 100 Possessions

Does the defense allow less points per 100 possessions w/ Rondo on the court? No
On Court: Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions = 110.1
Off Court: Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions = 108.4
Net Difference: +1.7 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions (Positive is bad)

Does the team have a better point differential per 100 possessions w/ Rondo on the court? No
Offensive Net Difference: +0.4 Points Per 100 Possessions
Defensive Net Difference: +1.7 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
Net Net Difference: (+0.4 Points Per 100 Possessions) - (+1.7 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions) = -1.4 Net Net Differential

When Rondo is on the floor we are worse by 1.4 Points Per 100 Possessions. For reference, when Collison plays PG, his Net Net Differntial is +1.8 Points Per 100 Possesions (meaning we are 1.8 points better when Collison is at PG). Even Curry has a better Net Net Differential when he played PG (-0.7 Net Net Differential).

He doesn't really look like a player you want to throw big money at & lock up as one of the core pieces moving forward. You can try to hide his deficiencies by pairing his stats with Cousins, but if you're going to be throwing big money at a player, the hope is that this player can help your team win no matter who is on the floor with him. If we don't want to look at Rondo's stats in isolation, than Rondo should be looked at as a roleplayer and thus paid as one ($8-10 mil).

By the way when Gay played SF, our team was 4.2 points better than our opponents per 100 possessions. I'd be fine hanging on to him IF we exclusively play him at SF. If we do a Koufos/Casspi/McLemore deal for guys like T. Evans & Jerebko coming back, I'd be pretty happy. Then you go out and sign a C. Lee, Curry, S. Hill, Aldrich, & Acy and call it a day. Then the 8th pick is just a luxury at this point.

PG - Collison/Curry
SG - Lee/Evans/Anderson
SF - Gay/Hill/Butler
PF - Cauley-Stein/Jerebko/Acy
C - Cousins/Aldrich
Click to expand...

Again, as I broke down above, you can go beyond those numbers above and find out that in fact both the offense and the defense do better with Rondo on the court while Boogie is out there.

Things only become a big negative when Boogie is off the floor. It taints the numbers. Its obviously legit, but there is a stark difference, and Rondo and Boogie work together.
 
A

Amit149

Bench
#70
#70
Bricklayer said:
Again, as I broke down above, you can go beyond those numbers above and find out that in fact both the offense and the defense do better with Rondo on the court while Boogie is out there.

Things only become a big negative when Boogie is off the floor. It taints the numbers. Its obviously legit, but there is a stark difference, and Rondo and Boogie work together.
Click to expand...
But what's the point in that?
If you look at the entirety of Rondo's minutes with and without Cousins he is a net negative, according to Nba.com- per 100 possesions (which I'm using in all stats I'll bring here) he is (-2.7).

Now it's true that he is a positive with Cousins +1.9, but this is only the 5th best (if you are discounting Moreland) duo including Cousins:

Cousins/Casspi: +6.3
Cousins/Ben: +3.6
Cousins/DC: +2.8
Cousins/Gay: +2.5
Cousins/Rondo: +1.9

So DC the alternative at PG to Rondo, is actually better with Cousins (and better without him).
So while it's true Cousins and Rondo can work together if you talk strictly about the numbers DC as a better +/- with him.
 
twslam07

twslam07

Starter
#71
#71
Bricklayer said:
Again, as I broke down above, you can go beyond those numbers above and find out that in fact both the offense and the defense do better with Rondo on the court while Boogie is out there.

Things only become a big negative when Boogie is off the floor. It taints the numbers. Its obviously legit, but there is a stark difference, and Rondo and Boogie work together.
Click to expand...
Again, that has more to do with Cousins than it has to do with Rondo.

Both the offense & defense do better with Collison on the court (at PG) while Boogie is out there than when Rondo is on the court with Boogie out there. The stats are right there, but your bias & soft spot for Rondo is screwing with your analysis & interpretation . If the team does better with Collison/Cousins than it does Rondo/Cousins, wouldn't we want more Collison/Cousins? This is why there are many on here very much okay with letting Rondo walk.
 
Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#72
#72
twslam07 said:
Again, that has more to do with Cousins than it has to do with Rondo.

Both the offense & defense do better with Collison on the court (at PG) while Boogie is out there than when Rondo is on the court with Boogie out there. The stats are right there, but your bias & soft spot for Rondo is screwing with your analysis & interpretation . If the team does better with Collison/Cousins than it does Rondo/Cousins, wouldn't we want more Collison/Cousins? This is why there are many on here very much okay with letting Rondo walk.
Click to expand...

That's not what the numbers show:

Overall: 106.5Off + 109.0Def = -2.5Net

w/Cuz+Rondo: 108.5Off + 106.3Def = +2.2Net
w/Cuz, no Rondo: 106.7Off + 108.4Def = -1.7Net
no Cuz, w/Rondo: 101.4Off +116.8Def = -15.4Net <--!!

w/Cuz+Collison: 110.0Off + 108.1Def = +1.9Net
w/Cuz, no Collison: 105.6Off +105.3Def = +0.3Net
no Cuz, w/Collison: 106.1Off + 112.5Def = -6.4Net

So, what we get out of Collison is more offense. But as long as Cuz is on the floor we actually got less defense.
 
A

Amit149

Bench
#73
#73
Bricklayer said:
That's not what the numbers show:

Overall: 106.5Off + 109.0Def = -2.5Net

w/Cuz+Rondo: 108.5Off + 106.3Def = +2.2Net
w/Cuz, no Rondo: 106.7Off + 108.4Def = -1.7Net
no Cuz, w/Rondo: 101.4Off +116.8Def = -15.4Net <--!!

w/Cuz+Collison: 110.0Off + 108.1Def = +1.9Net
w/Cuz, no Collison: 105.6Off +105.3Def = +0.3Net
no Cuz, w/Collison: 106.1Off + 112.5Def = -6.4Net

So, what we get out of Collison is more offense. But as long as Cuz is on the floor we actually got less defense.
Click to expand...
NBA.com (per 100):

Cousins/DC: +2.8
Cousins/Rondo: +1.9

Basketball Reference (per 100):

Cousins/DC: +1.2
Cousins/Rondo: +1.1

You used nbawowy, now it might be a great site but I'd take NBA.com and Basketball-Reference over it.

And even if we take your source as the best-
You are going to tell me that it's worth spending a lot of money on Rondo because we are marginally better with Rondo/Cousins than with DC/Cousins, even though if you look at the entire time they are on the court (both with and without Cousins) DC is better? what's the logic in that?
 
Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#74
#74
Amit149 said:
NBA.com (per 100):

Cousins/DC: +2.8
Cousins/Rondo: +1.9

Basketball Reference (per 100):

Cousins/DC: +1.2
Cousins/Rondo: +1.1

You used nbawowy, now it might be a great site but I'd take NBA.com and Basketball-Reference over it.

And even if we take your source as the best-
You are going to tell me that it's worth spending a lot of money on Rondo because we are marginally better with Rondo/Cousins than with DC/Cousins, even though if you look at the entire time they are on the court (both with and without Cousins) DC is better? what's the logic in that?
Click to expand...
Oh, I've mentioned my logic before.

DC is relatively speaking a nobody. He attracts nobody. He's just a guy in the NBA. Nobody comes to play with DC. Nobody talks about him. Borderline starter, and doesn't give you team either notoriety or personality. He also doesn't give you a hundred games of playoff and championship experience facing down the likes of LeBron James.

And Cuz and Rondo bonded as pals. Rondo has the stature to help guide the lockerrroom with Cuz.
 
King Baller

King Baller

All-Star
#75
#75
KingMilz said:
That said, I think Vogel is a fine offensive coach. He runs a LOT of different stuff. Zipper offense, Flex action, Horns sets - he's even borrowed (I'm actually not sure where this comes from) the Warriors "elevator door" screens which I still say are often illegal. He definitely runs a lot of stuff to free up shooters off screens and not a lot of post action. Whether that's because of the personnel he's had in Indy or his own philosophy I don't know but I'd lean towards roster-based because he seems pretty flexible in the stuff he runs.

I think he'd find ways to play to Rondo and Cousin's strengths.
Click to expand...
Sometimes the W's screeners have the look of NFL offensive linemen:)


 
funkykingston

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
#76
#76
Bricklayer said:
That's not what the numbers show:

Overall: 106.5Off + 109.0Def = -2.5Net

w/Cuz+Rondo: 108.5Off + 106.3Def = +2.2Net
w/Cuz, no Rondo: 106.7Off + 108.4Def = -1.7Net
no Cuz, w/Rondo: 101.4Off +116.8Def = -15.4Net <--!!

w/Cuz+Collison: 110.0Off + 108.1Def = +1.9Net
w/Cuz, no Collison: 105.6Off +105.3Def = +0.3Net
no Cuz, w/Collison: 106.1Off + 112.5Def = -6.4Net

So, what we get out of Collison is more offense. But as long as Cuz is on the floor we actually got less defense.
Click to expand...
To me the numbers match the eye test and say (to me at least) that when Collison is on the floor with Cousins they play a bit faster. In and of itself that doesn't really mean anything, especially in the context of George Karl's offense.

And considering we can't even say for sure that he helps the team more than Collison I struggle with the logic that he should be resigned at $15-$17 million ($10+ million more than DC) on the basis that (1) he's Boogie's pal and (2) he used to be a big name player.

I'm not sure that at this point Rondo would be a plus for recruiting other players to Sacramento but even if he is, you're blowing all available cap room to re-sign him so without signicant moves to open up caproom that's not much of a selling point.

At the very least I don't think the Kings can afford to go into next season with both Rondo & Collison. There needs to be an effective PG defender somewhere on the roster.

And if Dunn is on the board at #8 if really struggle to see the rationale for bringing Rondo back.
 
PBNJ85

PBNJ85

G-League
#78
#78
Rondo is almost everything everyone says. Micro managing stat controlling and lazy on defense. Some on those inbound plays this year were the worst I can remember. A NAME player who has respect of his peers and Cuz's buddy. An important piece in making DMC comfortable. Glad I don't decide.
 
twslam07

twslam07

Starter
#79
#79
Bricklayer said:
That's not what the numbers show:

Overall: 106.5Off + 109.0Def = -2.5Net

w/Cuz+Rondo: 108.5Off + 106.3Def = +2.2Net
w/Cuz, no Rondo: 106.7Off + 108.4Def = -1.7Net
no Cuz, w/Rondo: 101.4Off +116.8Def = -15.4Net <--!!

w/Cuz+Collison: 110.0Off + 108.1Def = +1.9Net
w/Cuz, no Collison: 105.6Off +105.3Def = +0.3Net
no Cuz, w/Collison: 106.1Off + 112.5Def = -6.4Net

So, what we get out of Collison is more offense. But as long as Cuz is on the floor we actually got less defense.
Click to expand...
As Amit already coverd, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. I like to stick to NBA.com, BasketballReference, & 82Games. I don't see your numbers anywhere. I happen to think with all of the recent improvements that NBA.com is the most reliable, so I'm going to focus on those numbers.

*All controlled for 100 Poss

Cuz & Rondo Offense = 104.8
Cuz & Rondo Defense = 102.9
Cuz & Rondo Net = +1.9

Cuz & Collison Offense = 106.7
Cuz & Collison Defense = 103.9
Cuz & Collison Net = +2.8

This data is saying Collison/Cousins combo helps us win more than a Rondo/Cousins combo. Now let's look at how each individual stacks up...

Rondo On-Court Offense = 107.3
Rondo On-Court Defense = 110.1
Rondo On-Court Net = -2.8

Rondo Off-Court Offense = 106.9
Rondo Off-Court Defense = 108.4
Rondo Off-Court Net = -1.5

Rondo On-Court/Off-Court Net = -1.4 [(-2.8) - (-1.5)]


Collison On-Court Offense = 108.8
Collison On-Court Defense = 110.5
Collison On-Court Net = -1.7

Collison Off-Court Offense = 105.1
Collison Off-Court Defense = 108.2
Collison Off-Court Net = -3.1

Collison On-Court/Off-Court Net = +1.4 [(-1.7) - (-3.1)]

This data is saying that we are better when Collison is on the court vs. when Rondo is on the court. I'm not sure how to be any clearer that Collison is not just better on the court but also better with Cousins...


I would also like to point out that Rondo played all of his minutes this year at PG whereas Collison was forced to play out of position a lot at SG this year thus negating the impact he can have for a team. A large majority of us complained about running the two PG lineup and it killing us defensively. The data backs that up (-1.6 net for a Collison/Rondo pairing compared to the positive net scores we saw when those two were paired with Cousins). The reason I bring this up is that if Collison played all of his minutes at PG, then Collison's numbers would likely be EVEN GREATER than Rondo's numbers. Since there isn't (or I don't know where to find it) On-Court/Off-Court by Position Played, the data I'm using should be taken with a grain of salt. However, it should be able to be used directionally.

As mentioned before, here are Collison's On-Court/Off-Court Net numbers:

Collison On-Court Offense = 108.8
Collison On-Court Defense = 110.5
Collison On-Court Net = -1.7

Collison Off-Court Offense = 105.1
Collison Off-Court Defense = 108.2
Collison Off-Court Net = -3.1

Collison On-Court/Off-Court Net = +1.4 [(-1.7) - (-3.1)]

82games provides us his On-Court Offense & Defense as a PG (rather than just summing all of his minutes together). If I update the first two metrics (On-Court Offense & On-Court Defense) with just the numbers he logged at PG, his On-Court Net gets better.

Collison On-Court Offense = 105.3*
Collison On-Court Defense = 106.6*
Collison On-Court Net = -1.2*

Collison Off-Court Offense = 105.1
Collison Off-Court Defense = 108.2
Collison Off-Court Net = -3.1

Collison On-Court/Off-Court Net = +1.9 [(-1.2*) - (-3.1)]

In my analysis, now were comparing PG impact between Rondo & Collison. After doing so, we see that the Kings are 3.3 points better when Collison is at PG versus when Rondo is at PG (versus the original 2.8 points when we considered Collison's minutes at SG).

This data also suggests that you would be incorrect about the offense getting better but the defense getting worse with Collison on the floor. This actually suggests that the offense gets worse (105.3 - Collison vs. 107.3 - Rondo) but the defense gets a whole lot better (106.6 - Collison vs. 110.1 - Rondo) when comparing PG minutes. I understand that your original point was made in regards to them being paired to Cousins, but I don't think it's a stretch to assume that a Collison/Cousins 2 man lineup while Collison is playing PG is even better than what was already communicated. And I'm sure you would see that difference on the defensive side of the ball rather than the offensive side like we are seeing above.



So again Brick, the stats are right there in front of you, but I think your bias for Rondo is clouding your interpretation of those stats. Collison proved this year that he was better for the team & better with Cousins not just through the 'eye test' but also the 'stat test.' Is there another test you'd like to conduct because right now it's looking like a pretty attractive option to let Rondo walk...
 
Last edited:
G

Gilles

Starter
#81
#81
nbawowy.com might have less credibility than nba.com (b.-r. acknowledges that their version is estimation, so I don't know, if they should be considered more reliable), but it has a nice feature of showing, how a certain combination of players played together without some other players. In other words it shows, that for Cousins/Rondo almost all of their plus in +/- comes from the time Collison was on the floor as well, because Old George, I guess:
Cousins/Rondo w/o Collison (2289 poss.): 106.0 - 105.3 = 0.7
Cousins/Rondo w/Collison (1449 poss.): 112.3 - 107.8 = 4.5

P.S. Still on the topic of nbawowy numbers show that Vlade's deadline struggle to acquire Snell along with Gasol might have become a sneaky good move:

Chicago as a team (7877 poss.) : 105.6 - 107.0 = -1.4 pp100p (points per 100 poss.)
Chicago w/o Snell (5307 poss.) : 105.8 - 110.2 = -4.4 pp100p

Interesting, but it's likely he benefited from playing with Butler (like every Kings playing with Boogie), right? Well, yes and no:

Butler w/Snell (1482 poss.) : 105.5 - 99.6 = +5.9 pp100p
Butler w/o Snell (3373 poss.) : 107.1 - 109.5 = -2.4 pp100p
Snell w/o Butler (1087 poss.) : 104.7 - 101.3 = +3.4 pp100p

So Bulls looked very good, when Butler had Snell by his side to take care of opponent's best swingman, so Jimmy could concentrate on offense. No Snell meant better offensive flow, but also falling off a cliff on D. Looking through some articles on Bulls it seems that inconsistent offensive production was the reason to put him behind McDermott on depth chart, move you would expect from offensive-minded coach. And both hosts on the last Bulls podcast laughed pretty long, when one of them suggested, that Snell was gonna get 20 mpg next season, with their conclusion being, that he's done in Chicago and maybe gets invite to the Summer League.
Snell is set to make $2.3M, and with cap explosion that looks like a decent price for a bench guy, who can provide stellar defense, while remaining invisible on the other end though still providing shooting/spacing, i.e. imagine if James Anderson was 25 y.o., could shoot and defend a bit better - not a world beater, but a decent cog, if Kings machine will ever start moving in the right direction. And Kings can likely get Snell for top-55 guaranteed second-rounder.
 
bajaden

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#83
#83
Gilles said:
nbawowy.com might have less credibility than nba.com (b.-r. acknowledges that their version is estimation, so I don't know, if they should be considered more reliable), but it has a nice feature of showing, how a certain combination of players played together without some other players. In other words it shows, that for Cousins/Rondo almost all of their plus in +/- comes from the time Collison was on the floor as well, because Old George, I guess:
Cousins/Rondo w/o Collison (2289 poss.): 106.0 - 105.3 = 0.7
Cousins/Rondo w/Collison (1449 poss.): 112.3 - 107.8 = 4.5

P.S. Still on the topic of nbawowy numbers show that Vlade's deadline struggle to acquire Snell along with Gasol might have become a sneaky good move:

Chicago as a team (7877 poss.) : 105.6 - 107.0 = -1.4 pp100p (points per 100 poss.)
Chicago w/o Snell (5307 poss.) : 105.8 - 110.2 = -4.4 pp100p

Interesting, but it's likely he benefited from playing with Butler (like every Kings playing with Boogie), right? Well, yes and no:

Butler w/Snell (1482 poss.) : 105.5 - 99.6 = +5.9 pp100p
Butler w/o Snell (3373 poss.) : 107.1 - 109.5 = -2.4 pp100p
Snell w/o Butler (1087 poss.) : 104.7 - 101.3 = +3.4 pp100p

So Bulls looked very good, when Butler had Snell by his side to take care of opponent's best swingman, so Jimmy could concentrate on offense. No Snell meant better offensive flow, but also falling off a cliff on D. Looking through some articles on Bulls it seems that inconsistent offensive production was the reason to put him behind McDermott on depth chart, move you would expect from offensive-minded coach. And both hosts on the last Bulls podcast laughed pretty long, when one of them suggested, that Snell was gonna get 20 mpg next season, with their conclusion being, that he's done in Chicago and maybe gets invite to the Summer League.
Snell is set to make $2.3M, and with cap explosion that looks like a decent price for a bench guy, who can provide stellar defense, while remaining invisible on the other end though still providing shooting/spacing, i.e. imagine if James Anderson was 25 y.o., could shoot and defend a bit better - not a world beater, but a decent cog, if Kings machine will ever start moving in the right direction. And Kings can likely get Snell for top-55 guaranteed second-rounder.
Click to expand...
I think anytime you look at a players stats, you have to consider who his teammates on the floor are. There was a reason why Cousins and Rondo went to Karl to ask him to play Willie Cauley-Stein more. Rondo wanted another good defender to help cover his butt. Surround a weak defender with good defensive players for five years, and his stats are going to look considerably better than if he were playing on, Oh, lets say the Kings. What you see with your eyes doesn't lie. When a player is lazy on switches, or doesn't switch at all. When he constantly plays 10 or more feet off his man cheating into the passing lanes. When he doesn't pursue on the pick and roll, or goes under every pick, I'm sorry, his defense stinks. It's not about whether he's smart enough to play good defense, or even if he has the ability, it's that he doesn't try. He doesn't put out the effort.
 
bajaden

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#84
#84
One final note and then I'm moving on from this subject. What I can't understand, is that some of the people I respect, who have been preaching defense, defense, and more defense, are now trying to find a way to defend a player that doesn't play a shred of defense. Color me confused. :confused:
 
VF21

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#85
#85
bajaden said:
One final note and then I'm moving on from this subject. What I can't understand, is that some of the people I respect, who have been preaching defense, defense, and more defense, are now trying to find a way to defend a player that doesn't play a shred of defense. Color me confused. :confused:
Click to expand...
I don't know about anyone else, but defense is important but it's only part of the puzzle. I've said it numerous times and I'll say one more time:

When you have a player with the skillset of Rajon Rondo, and you have a big man who can benefit immensely from some of those skills, you need to consider the big picture.

That's my reply. I know you won't agree with it, but you asked...
 
twslam07

twslam07

Starter
#86
#86
VF21 said:
I don't know about anyone else, but defense is important but it's only part of the puzzle. I've said it numerous times and I'll say one more time:

When you have a player with the skillset of Rajon Rondo, and you have a big man who can benefit immensely from some of those skills, you need to consider the big picture.

That's my reply. I know you won't agree with it, but you asked...
Click to expand...
That's the thing though. It's not about benefiting the big man. It's about benefiting the team. Collison has been more valuable than Rondo to the team & Collison/Cousins has been better than Rondo/Cousins.
 
VF21

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#87
#87
twslam07 said:
That's the thing though. It's not about benefiting the big man. It's about benefiting the team. Collison has been more valuable than Rondo to the team & Collison/Cousins has been better than Rondo/Cousins.
Click to expand...
bajaden was asking why some people overlook Rondo's defensive liability. I answered him.

You think it's not about benefiting the big man? Look again at how the Kings do without DMC. When DMC is doing good, the Kings have their best chance to do good. (And yes, I'm well aware of their record so don't even bother going there again.) ;)

You're free to disagree but you're not ever going to change my mind ... and it was my mindset (and that of others who feel the same way) that bajaden was confused about.
 
A

Amit149

Bench
#88
#88
VF21 said:
bajaden was asking why some people overlook Rondo's defensive liability. I answered him.

You think it's not about benefiting the big man? Look again at how the Kings do without DMC. When DMC is doing good, the Kings have their best chance to do good. (And yes, I'm well aware of their record so don't even bother going there again.) ;)

You're free to disagree but you're not ever going to change my mind ... and it was my mindset (and that of others who feel the same way) that bajaden was confused about.
Click to expand...
But even if you go by "who is better with Cousins" than DC/Cousins preformed better than Rondo/Cousins...
And if you look at the entire time they are on the floor the +/- (which is basically what this whole thread is about) is not close.

So if Rondo with Cousins is worse than Collison with Cousins, and Rondo without Cousins is far worse than Collison without Cousins- what's even the argument for him outside of "he's Cousins buddy"?
 
bajaden

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#89
#89
VF21 said:
I don't know about anyone else, but defense is important but it's only part of the puzzle. I've said it numerous times and I'll say one more time:

When you have a player with the skillset of Rajon Rondo, and you have a big man who can benefit immensely from some of those skills, you need to consider the big picture.

That's my reply. I know you won't agree with it, but you asked...
Click to expand...
I might agree, but not for 20 million dollars which uses all our capspace. It's a matter of what Rondo is worth to me. I'm happy paying him 10 mil a year for his services, but he's not worth 20 mil to me, I don't care who he's friends with.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.