2013 Draft Prospects

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bajaden

Hall of Famer
Here are the stats for Porter's last two games. And I would say that they reflect most games.

19 pt's on 7 of 14 shooting. 1 of 3 from beyond the arc. 4 of 4 from the freethrow line. 14 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal.

21 pt's on 6 of 15 shooting. 2 of 6 from beyond the arc. 7 of 7 from the freethrow line. 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 blocked shots.

Bear in mind that he's shooting over 50% overall for the year and over 40% from the three.


Ben McLemore had himself quite a night last night. 30 points on 9 of 13 shooting. 6 of 10 from the three, and 6 of 6 from the freethrow line. He also added 7 rebounds and 3 steals. His running mate Jeff Withey had 17 pt's on 5 of 10 shooting, and 7 of 8 from the freethrow line. He added 10 rebounds and 5 blocked shots.

On saturday McAdoo didn't fair very well. 6 pts on 3 of 12 shooting, 3 rebounds, no assists and 3 turnovers. This is precisely why he sliding down the draft boards. I do think there's some talent there, but so far, he's getting out played way too often. Right now, the best player on the North Carolina team is probably Reggie Bullock who went for 14 pt's on 5 of 8 shooting, only 1 of 4 from the three, and 3 of 4 from the freethrow line. He added 7 boards as well.

One of my favorites, Kelly Olynyk, the 7 foot center from Gonzaga had a nice game on saturday. 20 pts on 7 of 8 shooting and 6 of 6 from the freethrow line. He also had 6 boards, 4 assists, and 2 blocked shots. Another center thats starting to get some attention by the media is Alex Kirk, who is partly responsible for New Mexico's good play this year. On saturday the 7 footer had 17 pts on 7 of 11 shooting along with 16 rebounds and 2 blocked shots.

Finally, Anthony Bennett seems to be adjusting to his new found defensive attention he's been getting and he's starting to figure out how to get his points again. He had 17 pt's on 8 of 14 shooting, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 3 blocked shot.
 
Shabazz is incredibly skilled offensively, but I'm wondering if his long ball can sustain for the NBA. He mostly operates from the mid-range in, doesn't take too many college three point shots, and I've seen a fair share of misses from the stripe to make me think he could be a slightly above shooter for the next level. He's skilled, and maybe I'm just being picky here, but I'd like to see him slash even more rather settle for all these mid-range J's. That's a big reason. But the bigger reason is what Gilles mentioned: the passing. I haven't seen any wing lottery pick in the past several drafts post such bad assist numbers, and he's by and large having the green light to score for himself. In the NBA, that makes him easy to exploit: teams will load up on him and force him to pass, and early returns say he may not be up to that challenge. Defensively, he's strong, but is not a playmaking presence at all. Rebounding is also very underwhelming. There's a ton of reasons for me to not like Shabazz, from the overrated offense/shooting to the lack of passing to the lack of rebounding to concerns about his defensive activity. I have so many questions to the point where even if he corrects a few, he might only be a 4th-5th man in teams, at best. But hey, I realize I'm in the minority with this opinion, but as you can tell I'm just not liking gunner scorers (MarShon Brooks also ranked poorly with me). Shabazz has a great frame, but I keep thinking of Gerald Henderson/DeMar DeRozan/Nick Young/MarShon Brooks when people bring up comparisons.
Speaking of former lottery picks Harrison Barnes had asst.pct. of 7.2% his sophomore year, but 6,2% that Shabazz has is really underwhelming. Also rebounding: he's a very good offensive rebounder, while being pretty bad defensive one on par with most PGs, not SFs.
 
Yeah, I wasn't too high on Harrison Barnes either. Early 20s. But I was higher on Barnes than I was on Shabazz.
Well, how do you feel about Barnes now? I think 90% of the world was high on Thomas Robinson, and I would love to have that one back if that meant we got Barnes.

I'm high on Shabazz just because I think he has potential. I feel like just from a Kings fan's perspective, drafting for talent has gotten us farther (DeMarcus) than drafting a "sure thing" (everyone else).
 
As I stated, Porter isn't an above average athlete, but then, neither was Larry Bird. But like Bird, his BBIQ is off the charts, and he may have the best BBIQ in all of college. While his athleticism is a little suspect, I think to overlook what he does on the floor is foolish. He gets his share of steals, and is a good weakside shotblocker for a SF. He's a very good rebounder, averaging just under 8 boards a game, and he's an excellent passer. As I said earlier, he might be the most skilled SF in college.

I know we get caught up in this defensive stuff, and as a result pass on players that end up killing us down the road, and we wonder why we passed on that player. It always amazes me how we don't want this player or that player because their not good enough for our lousy team, but then they end up on a team contending for a championship. How is it that they're good enough for a good team, but not us. And I'm speaking in general here, and not about you Kingster.

Arby brought up freethrow shooting as a parameter in his analysis. I used too, but gave it up because too many times, it just didn't bear any fruit. For instance, Tyreke is a good freethrow shooter, but isn't a good jumpshooter, recent stats aside. I will admit, that in general, most good jumpshooters are also good freethrow shooters. Jimmer being an example of that. But I've seen quite a few players that were good freethrow shooters that never became good jumpshooters, and generally the reason is form. For instance, if you watch T. Robb take a jumpshot, he has very good motion and form, and thats why I think its only a matter of time and practice before he becomes consistent with his jumpshot. However, when he goes to the freethrow line, his form is terrible and very mechanical. As a result, at least so far, he's not a good freethrow shooter.

Now in the case of a player like Jordan, its very possible that his jumpshot will come later. The old rule, the more I practice, the luckier I get, is a correct one. But its alway a crapshoot to some extent. Will the player put in the work? You just never know. Donte Greene didn't. Nice guy that everybody liked, and wanted to succeed. But he was lazy, and you just never know what someone will do when that first big paycheck arrives. Thats why I like to get as much info on a player in highschool and college as I can. I try and go to the college website and read what the coach or others locally are saying about a player. For instance, I was reading an article about an interview with Victor Oladipo's coach. In the article, he said Victor spent the entire offseason working on his jumpshot. That Victor is always in the gym before anyone else arrives for practice, and has a key to get into the Gym late at night so he can get in extra practice. When I read stuff like that, it moves that player up a few notches on my board.

By the way, Harden was a very good passer in college, and basicly played the Point. He brought up the ball, and started the offense. I had people tell me he wasn't a good athlete. He wasn't a good ballhandler, and wasn't a good passer. I watched the guy play, counting the tournament, over 20 some odd times. All those people were wrong! They found out when he got to the combine that he was a terrific athlete with explosive leaping ability. But then these were the same people that told me that Blake Griffin was undersized, and not athletic. I sometimes wonder what these people are watching, or if they watch at all.
I like the way you describe porter, which falls in line with how I think of him, and with you having watched him way more than I have .. it's a little reassuring.

I can't help but compare him to Harrison Barnes, not in how they play, but in how they are slotted in the draft. Meaning - we could have drafted Barnes last year, we needed an SF and still do, but I'd be much happier with Porter this year than Barnes last year.

Any News on Noel? His injury last night wasn't pretty. I hope he's fine, obviously, but for now it's possible Cal will finally let Cauley-Stein loose.
 
Well, how do you feel about Barnes now? I think 90% of the world was high on Thomas Robinson, and I would love to have that one back if that meant we got Barnes.

I'm high on Shabazz just because I think he has potential. I feel like just from a Kings fan's perspective, drafting for talent has gotten us farther (DeMarcus) than drafting a "sure thing" (everyone else).
If I could go back I wouldn't take Barnes over Robinson, even knowing what we know now. Barnes isn't putting up great numbers, either, he's just getting the minutes for GSW. Robinson is stuck on the bench here. Per36, Robinsons numbers are actually better than Barnes, in my opinion. I wanted Drummond last year until Robinson dropped the way he did. If I could go back in time would I take Drummond or Lillard over Robinson? yea, Barnes though? I don't think I would.

One guy I was incredibly high on last season is John Henson. I would take him over Thomas Robinson.

And I have to disagree a little bit with your last point. Cousins wasn't just a 'talent' pick, he also filled a need. He filled everything, really, because the talent gap was so far between him and the players after him that it was a no brainer. I don't think Shabazz's talents are drastically higher than his peers.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
If I could go back I wouldn't take Barnes over Robinson, even knowing what we know now. Barnes isn't putting up great numbers, either, he's just getting the minutes for GSW. Robinson is stuck on the bench here. Per36, Robinsons numbers are actually better than Barnes, in my opinion. I wanted Drummond last year until Robinson dropped the way he did. If I could go back in time would I take Drummond or Lillard over Robinson? yea, Barnes though? I don't think I would.

One guy I was incredibly high on last season is John Henson. I would take him over Thomas Robinson.

And I have to disagree a little bit with your last point. Cousins wasn't just a 'talent' pick, he also filled a need. He filled everything, really, because the talent gap was so far between him and the players after him that it was a no brainer. I don't think Shabazz's talents are drastically higher than his peers.
I wasn't a big fan of Henson. Not that I didn't like him, I just didn't like him where we were drafting. Oddly enough, Robinson and Henson are putting up similar numbers and minutes. But to compare what either of them, including Barnes, is doing now, is fools gold. I still see Robinson as an eventual SF, or at worse, a combo PF/SF player. Robinson is a better athlete than Henson, and thats not a knock on Henson's athleticism, its just that Robinson borders on being a freak athlete. Lets have this conversation again in two years. Lilliard is another story, and if the draft was done over, its likely he'd be right up there in the top three.

As for Muhammad. My problem is that he touches the ball as much, or maybe more than anyone on the UCLA team, and yet he doesn't even average one assist a game. The dude is black hole. I'm just not fond of those kind of players. Just a personal preference for me. There's no doubt that he's very talented offensively, but he's just so so defensively. Thats not to say the under the right coach, he can't be turned into a more complete player. Lets not forget that he's a half a year removed from highschool.

Its interesting how you pointed out that Barnes and Porter are slotted very similarly in the draft. What I find interesting is that Barnes, even right up to the draft, was still living off his potential he arrived with. Whereas Porter is actually putting up the numbers that Barnes was susposed to put up, but never did on a consistent basis. There's no doubt that Barnes is a better athlete than Porter. But Porter is a lot smarter and just knows how to play the game. He always seems to be in the right place at the right time. Just a good basketball player.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
I didn't like Barnes in college, and I still don't like him. I'd still take Robinson over him. We'll see how it turns out in a couple of years. I could easily see Robinson smoothing out the rough edges and being very productive. But there are no guarantees. Just have to wait and see.

I agree with baja in his comparison of Porter and Barnes. If they were both in this upcoming draft it wouldn't be close in my mind - I'd take Porter.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Its official, Noel out for the year with a torn ACL.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bas...ns-noel-kentucky-wildcats-torn-acl-for-season

Major bummer. Get well soon.
Horrible news! What a bad break for Noel. Makes me wonder if he'll declare now, or return for another year of college. Cauley-Stein's minutes are going to go up, and I expect that Poythress will play more at the PF position. Kentucky didn't have a lot of depth to start with, so they could ill afford to lose Noel.
 
...Arby brought up freethrow shooting as a parameter in his analysis. I used too, but gave it up because too many times, it just didn't bear any fruit. For instance, Tyreke is a good freethrow shooter, but isn't a good jumpshooter, recent stats aside. I will admit, that in general, most good jumpshooters are also good freethrow shooters. Jimmer being an example of that. But I've seen quite a few players that were good freethrow shooters that never became good jumpshooters, and generally the reason is form. For instance, if you watch T. Robb take a jumpshot, he has very good motion and form, and thats why I think its only a matter of time and practice before he becomes consistent with his jumpshot. However, when he goes to the freethrow line, his form is terrible and very mechanical. As a result, at least so far, he's not a good freethrow shooter...
Thing is FTs are very good indicator of shooting ability but it shows only what player can do with set shots. When Tyreke runs with the ball and shoots while kicking and/or leaning backwards, that's totally different story.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Thing is FTs are very good indicator of shooting ability but it shows only what player can do with set shots. When Tyreke runs with the ball and shoots while kicking and/or leaning backwards, that's totally different story.
I think your making my point! I've seen players that have a beautiful fluid jumpshot, but looked like Charles Barkleys golf swing at the freethrow line. And vice/versa. As I said, thats why I gave it up as a tool to judge a players potential as a jumpshooter. I do take it into consideration, but I just don't put as much emphasis as I used to.
 
My point actually was that sometimes Tyreke doesn't kick or lean back and suddenly becomes a very good jumpshooter. So if the guy shoots well from FT and is willing to put in work to improve his shooting motion there's certainly a promice. Smart seems that kind of player.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
My point actually was that sometimes Tyreke doesn't kick or lean back and suddenly becomes a very good jumpshooter. So if the guy shoots well from FT and is willing to put in work to improve his shooting motion there's certainly a promice. Smart seems that kind of player.
No, I don't disagree with that at all. There's no doubt that Tyreke is a much better shooter when he sticks to form. Old habits are hard to break, especially in the heat of battle. It can take years sometimes. I think anyone can improve with practice. However, some don't want to put in the practice. Durant was just an average jumpshooter in college, and shot a low percentage. But he's worked on his shot, and, his shot selection, and has improved dramaticly.

Lets take a look at Karl Malone. When he came into the league, he had no jumpshot, and was a terrible freethrow shooter. In his case, the jumpshot improved before the freethrow shooting improved. But in the end, through hard work, he became very good at both. We can look at form, or whether a player is a good freethrow shooter as a parameter of how good he might become at jumpshooting. But the biggest factor in my mind, is how dedicated the player is? How much work is he willing to put in? Of course, you and I have no way of knowing that, other than info that might be put out by their coach or teammates. Which is one of the reasons I'm higher on Oladipo than some others. First I read that his coach said he was a gym rat that is constantly working on his game. And then I saw amazing improvement this season over last in his shooting percentage, and also in his shot selection. When you put together talent, athleticism, and a great work ethic, your likely to end up with a good basketball player.

By the way. I read an article on shooting by a shooting guru, and he said the biggest single reason players are inconsistent shooting the ball, is that they lose sight of the target, or take their eye off the basket. Its very hard to hit something your not looking at. I know that when Coachie was working with Kevin Martin, the most important thing he emphasized, was to focus on the target from the moment you started your motion, and never let it go.
 
woof. Kentucky looked bad today. Couldn't really take anything away from the game, aside from the fact that I want nothing to do with Poythress.

Cauley-Stein wasn't great either, but he never really had the ball on offense. Had some good moments on defense. I'm still interested.
 
woof. Kentucky looked bad today. Couldn't really take anything away from the game, aside from the fact that I want nothing to do with Poythress.

Cauley-Stein wasn't great either, but he never really had the ball on offense. Had some good moments on defense. I'm still interested.
Had the ball enough times to be credited with 4 TOs. As with McLemore and Muhammad, I'm assuming, that, if they are not offering more offensively, doesn't mean they are held back by their coaches, but rather by their lack of skills. And his team only getting 9 defensive rebounds to 11 offensive for opponents doesn't speak volumes of his abilities either.
P.S. As for Poythress he would really fit in on mid-2000s Suns, where his lack of playmaking would've been hidden. Yeah, for now he's a pogo stick, who can shoot occasional jumper and has the body to be an excellent defender.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Had the ball enough times to be credited with 4 TOs. As with McLemore and Muhammad, I'm assuming, that, if they are not offering more offensively, doesn't mean they are held back by their coaches, but rather by their lack of skills. And his team only getting 9 defensive rebounds to 11 offensive for opponents doesn't speak volumes of his abilities either.
P.S. As for Poythress he would really fit in on mid-2000s Suns, where his lack of playmaking would've been hidden. Yeah, for now he's a pogo stick, who can shoot occasional jumper and has the body to be an excellent defender.
There's no doubt that Kentucky looked terrible today. But I don't think we should jump to conclusions about some of the players. Although, I think Poythress needs to stay in school for another year. He has a lot of talent, but in my opinion, lacks the aggressiveness needed to play in the NBA. Cauley-Stein is another issue all together. He's been coming off the bench and many times is on the floor with Noel. He's also just coming off of an injury, and some thought he should have taken more time. Anyway, now he's starting, and so is Wiltjer, which I'm not sure is a good idea. Wiltjer is a good shooter, but a terrible defender and just so so as a rebounder.

I think you have to give Calapari some time to work things out. Personally, I'd rather move Poythress to the PF position and let him start along side Cauley-Stein. Anyway, my point is, the team is going through a total makeover right now, and until everyone is on the same page, their going to struggle. Unfortunately, they have their game with Missouri coming up, and a loss to them, could knock them out of the tournament. The main thing Kentucky is lacking this season, is a true top PG.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I mean't to mention the St. Mary's/Gonzaga matchup on thursday. It was a big game for St. Mary's. A win would have given them a chance to win the WWC outright. Unfortunately they lost. However, my boy Mathew Dellavedova showed up for the game. Unfortunately, the only other St. Mary's player that bothered to show up was Steven Holt. Dellavedova played 38 minutes and scored 22 points on 7 of 15 shooting, and 6 of 12 from beyond the arc. He also had 4 boards, 6 assists, 2 steal, and 1 blocked shot. Holt added 17 pts on 7 of 14 shooting. However, Young, Page, Giusti, and Walker went just 4 for 22 from the floor.

Meanwhile Gonazga rolled on, with Kelly Olynyk the 7 foot center, scoring 17 pts, and hitting 2 out of 3 from beyond the arc. He added 7 boards 2 assists, 1 steal and 2 blocked shots. Bottom line is that Gonazga shot 50% while St. Mary's shot 38%. I honestly can't predict how Dellavedova's game will translate to the NBA. But he's a tough hardnosed player with very good BBIQ, and decent athleticism who playes hard on both sides of the floor. He's another Aussie following in the footsteps of Patty Mills. He also played on the national team, so he has played against NBA players.

A player that I find interesting is Chris Obekpa, the 6'9" PF from St. Johns. He has little or no offense to speak of. But defensively, he has tremendous potential. In his last game, he played 29 minutes, and scored zero points on zero shots, but grabbed 12 rebounds, and blocked 3 shots. He's averaging 4.4 blocked shots a game. He's extremely raw, but if he can develop just a little offense, he could be a great defensive stopper under the basket. The dude has a 7'4" wingspan
 
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Kingster

Hall of Famer
Oladipo looks like a good player. Wouldn't mind having him on the Kings. High BB IQ, quick hands, athletic, and tough.

Sulaimon, Porter, McLemore also look good, in no particular order.
 
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No, I don't disagree with that at all. There's no doubt that Tyreke is a much better shooter when he sticks to form. Old habits are hard to break, especially in the heat of battle. It can take years sometimes. I think anyone can improve with practice. However, some don't want to put in the practice. Durant was just an average jumpshooter in college, and shot a low percentage. But he's worked on his shot, and, his shot selection, and has improved dramaticly.

Lets take a look at Karl Malone. When he came into the league, he had no jumpshot, and was a terrible freethrow shooter. In his case, the jumpshot improved before the freethrow shooting improved. But in the end, through hard work, he became very good at both. We can look at form, or whether a player is a good freethrow shooter as a parameter of how good he might become at jumpshooting. But the biggest factor in my mind, is how dedicated the player is? How much work is he willing to put in? Of course, you and I have no way of knowing that, other than info that might be put out by their coach or teammates. Which is one of the reasons I'm higher on Oladipo than some others. First I read that his coach said he was a gym rat that is constantly working on his game. And then I saw amazing improvement this season over last in his shooting percentage, and also in his shot selection. When you put together talent, athleticism, and a great work ethic, your likely to end up with a good basketball player.

By the way. I read an article on shooting by a shooting guru, and he said the biggest single reason players are inconsistent shooting the ball, is that they lose sight of the target, or take their eye off the basket. Its very hard to hit something your not looking at. I know that when Coachie was working with Kevin Martin, the most important thing he emphasized, was to focus on the target from the moment you started your motion, and never let it go.
He shot .47/.40/.81 at Texas, and he averaged 5.8 3pt attempts a game. That's well above average.
 
McLemore, Bennett, Porter, and Burke are the players I like so far this year, but overall this draft could be as bad as 2011, except without a Kyrie Iriving.
 
McLemore, Bennett, Porter, and Burke are the players I like so far this year, but overall this draft could be as bad as 2011, except without a Kyrie Iriving.

Also a big fan of Trey Burke. I think he's going to rise up the boards closer to the draft. I don't see any way he won't be able to play in the NBA.
 
Amidst all the Robinson nonsense, I was able to catch most of the Kentucky / Vanderbilt game on ESPN 3 today. At this stage of the NCAA season, Kentucky is the only team I'll go out of my way to watch. Something about that team is so fascinating to me.

Anyway, Cauley-Stein played really well. I can't tell you how good or bad Vandy's frontcout is, but I'm assuming its pretty bad based on their record. WCS was the best player on the court. He scored 20 points, 7 REB, 3 BLK, and was able to play at a high level for 32 minutes. I even saw a few really nice post moves out of him, which surprised me because I'm mostly interested in him for his defensive potential. It was a really good effort from him.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Amidst all the Robinson nonsense, I was able to catch most of the Kentucky / Vanderbilt game on ESPN 3 today. At this stage of the NCAA season, Kentucky is the only team I'll go out of my way to watch. Something about that team is so fascinating to me.

Anyway, Cauley-Stein played really well. I can't tell you how good or bad Vandy's frontcout is, but I'm assuming its pretty bad based on their record. WCS was the best player on the court. He scored 20 points, 7 REB, 3 BLK, and was able to play at a high level for 32 minutes. I even saw a few really nice post moves out of him, which surprised me because I'm mostly interested in him for his defensive potential. It was a really good effort from him.

Calapari has nothing by high praise for Cauley-Stein. He said he's a very quick learner, and that appears to be correct. He's still pretty raw, but has a lot of potential. He had a nice game, but against a pretty poor team. However, he did what he was susposed to do.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
He's one of, if not the most underrated player in the draft so far.
I guess the question would be, underrated by who? Certainly not by me, and not by most of the scouts I suscribe to. I guess if your going by the mock draft boards it might be correct. I personally think he's the current best overall PG in the draft. There are others that may be better long term, but right now, if I wanted to draft a PG, I'd draft Burke.

By the way, my reference to Durant was based on what I saw with my own eyes and not stats. When he was at Texas, his shot selection was not very good, and he basicly shot the ball if he got the ball. The fact that he made a high percentage of them was irrelevant to me. I figured that he had to change his approach if he was going to be successful in the NBA. If you look at his first year in the NBA, in Seattle, I believe he only shot around 28 or 29 percent from long range. However, he worked on his game, improved his shot selection, his passing and ballhandling, and made himself into a superstar.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
McLemore, Bennett, Porter, and Burke are the players I like so far this year, but overall this draft could be as bad as 2011, except without a Kyrie Iriving.
I'm on board with all four of those guys. I'd add Marcus Smart to the list. A guy thats rising rapidly up my board is Victor Oladipo. The burning question, is whether his shooting is an abberration or not. According to people in the know in Indiana, its not. He's simply put in the time and work to improve. He still needs to improve his ballhandling, but he's a terror on the defensive side of the ball. Here's the question. If Noel drops to us because of his torn ACL, do you draft him? Bearing in mind, that he probably won't be ready for the start of next season. I would, but what would the rest of you do?
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Wow, huge game today for Otto Porter. He is such a smooth player, and if he's not careful, he'll end up being considered for the first pick in the draft. Today against Syracuse he had 33 points on 12 of 19 shooting overall, and was 5 of 10 from the three. He added 8 boards 2 assists, and 5 steals. Its like a catch 22. You want him to play well so you know he someone you want to draft, but at the same time, if he plays too well, he moves up the draft board and out of our reach.
 
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