I've only had a chance to see Jordan play twice so far this year, and your right, he's probably the best player on the Arizona St. team. He's turned himself into quite a shot blocker averaging around 4 blocks a game. I don't see him slipping into the first round, but I could be wrong. Good bigs are hard to come by, especially those that could be good defenders. A lot of people don't know that Jordan has a younger brother, Dallin, thats also 7 foot and plays for Utah. I believe that they are 2 years apart.
2013 Draft Prospects
- Thread starter Vlade4GM
- Start date
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My top 30 big board (aka "the first round") features five 7-footers (Jeff Withey, Lucas Noguiera, Alex Len, Jordan Bachynski and Willie Cauley) and four more 6'11" guys who can basically masquerade as 7-footers (Nerlens Noel, Cody Zeller, Gorgui Dieng and Ryan Kelly). So I don't think there's going to be a shortae of height in this year's draft. I know no one's keen on these guys, but I also like Aaric Murray of WVU and AJ Hammons (freshman of Purdue) as mid-2nd round picks for the now.
Dario Saric--I just don't think he can shoot the ball well. He's a good ballhandler and rebounder for his size, though. I think he's going to be drafted in the 20th-25th range regardless, even though he's probably like the 37th best prospect overall. I'm kind of wondering, since he's had a ton of experience in Europe, whether he can improve any more than this. But still, you want perhaps a Hedo Turkoglu clone, he's probably another one of those. Perhaps a worse shooting, better rebounding Turkoglu.
Dario Saric--I just don't think he can shoot the ball well. He's a good ballhandler and rebounder for his size, though. I think he's going to be drafted in the 20th-25th range regardless, even though he's probably like the 37th best prospect overall. I'm kind of wondering, since he's had a ton of experience in Europe, whether he can improve any more than this. But still, you want perhaps a Hedo Turkoglu clone, he's probably another one of those. Perhaps a worse shooting, better rebounding Turkoglu.
Well I read somewhere that he (Saric) wont be declaring for the draft unless he gets a guarantee of going in the top 10 which at the moment is looking unlikely. I thought he could be a candidate to be one of those euros that gets drafted but doesn't come over right away, which may have been good for us considering how much youth we have on this team.
Hmmm. It seems like Cody Zeller stock has taken a hit as of late. I invision a scenario where he drops to our spot and we take him, much like what happened with Thomas Robinson this past year. He's not a guy I love, like Robinson wasn't a guy I loved, and now I regret saying that it was a good pick. Not that I'm closing the book on Robinson, but I wish I stuck to my guns last year. I liked Drummond or Barnes in our spot, but I flipped on that last second when Robinson dropped.
I haven't watched a ton of college hoops this season, so there is certainly time to find a guy I really like. It hasn't happened yet aside from Nerlens Noel, but that's an obvious one. I also mentioned Cauley-Stein in an earlier post. I think he's flying under the radar here a bit.
I find Isaiah Austin interesting even though he hasn't had a great year.
I haven't watched a ton of college hoops this season, so there is certainly time to find a guy I really like. It hasn't happened yet aside from Nerlens Noel, but that's an obvious one. I also mentioned Cauley-Stein in an earlier post. I think he's flying under the radar here a bit.
I find Isaiah Austin interesting even though he hasn't had a great year.
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I think people overstate Zeller's skill level. He's not a good passer, has good handles, but he will struggle to create against NBA length; average rebounder, negative impact on defense, limited range on his shot. I would say he's taller Hansbrough, but that would mean Cody's just as quick and agile as Tyler, when he's not. Plus Zeller's not much longer. You look for impact players in the first part of the lottery, and it's not who Zeller is.
Cauley-Stein main NBA advantage is his physique. He can dunk well, but that doesn't get you drafted high. I guess, it can get you drafted in the lottery somewhere, but there's enough solid guys in this draft to keep WCS out of top-10.
Cauley-Stein main NBA advantage is his physique. He can dunk well, but that doesn't get you drafted high. I guess, it can get you drafted in the lottery somewhere, but there's enough solid guys in this draft to keep WCS out of top-10.
I kind of agree with you on Zeller. I've watched quite a few Indiana games this year, and I started watching mostly to see Zeller play. Now I watch Indiana play to watch Victor Oladipo play. So what does that tell you about Cody? Not to say he's not a good player at the college level, he is! But I have serious questions about how his game will translate to the NBA, for some of the reasons you listed. I seriously doubt he's 7 foot, and I think he lacks some of the post skills that his brother Tyler has. And when last I checked, Tyler isn't tearing up the league. I always saw Tyler as a backup center in the league and so far, he's done nothing to change my mind.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Cody slide down into the 14/15 range of the draft. As for Cauley-Stein. I really like the kid, and he's capable of doing more than just dunking the ball. He's developed a little jumpshot from the foul line, and has added a few post moves. But In general, he's still a little raw. He's already put on another 20 pounds of muscle, and has proved to be a pretty good defensive player averaging a couple of blocked shots a game. You'd be drafting him on potential, but he has the size and length you look for in a defensive player. Plus he's a good athlete who runs the floor very well.
It looks like Kentucky has worked its way back into tournament conversation, so hopefully we'll get a chance to see Cauley-Stein play against good competition when it matters
I wouldn't be surprised to see Cody slide down into the 14/15 range of the draft. As for Cauley-Stein. I really like the kid, and he's capable of doing more than just dunking the ball. He's developed a little jumpshot from the foul line, and has added a few post moves. But In general, he's still a little raw. He's already put on another 20 pounds of muscle, and has proved to be a pretty good defensive player averaging a couple of blocked shots a game. You'd be drafting him on potential, but he has the size and length you look for in a defensive player. Plus he's a good athlete who runs the floor very well.
It looks like Kentucky has worked its way back into tournament conversation, so hopefully we'll get a chance to see Cauley-Stein play against good competition when it matters
One guy you might want to take a look at is Alex Len, the 7 footer from Maryland. Bear in mind, if you watch him play, that he's surrounded by trigger happy guards that shoot at anything that moves, and seldom get him the ball in the post. So its a little difficult to get a good read on him. I've seen him play quite a bit, and I think the kid has potential, and is a better athlete than a first observation will give you. He's not Noel by any means, but I can see him as a backup center in the short term, and a possible starting center down the road.
Another guy, and I've been reluctant to mention him, because prior to this season, he wasn't worth mentioning, is Kelly Olynyk from Gonzaga. The dude has completely revamped his game. Prior to this season he was just a 7 footer that played away from the basket and took jumpshots. Now he's turned into a very good post player, and a more than decent rebounder. I alway like watching Gonazga play because of their style, and I was totally surprised by Olynyk. The dude has turned himself into a more complete player that I think can play in the NBA. He also a good passer out of the post. It almost as though someone waved a magic wand over him and remade him. He's just an average athlete, but when you think about it, there aren't that many great athlete's at the center position anymore.
Another guy, and I've been reluctant to mention him, because prior to this season, he wasn't worth mentioning, is Kelly Olynyk from Gonzaga. The dude has completely revamped his game. Prior to this season he was just a 7 footer that played away from the basket and took jumpshots. Now he's turned into a very good post player, and a more than decent rebounder. I alway like watching Gonazga play because of their style, and I was totally surprised by Olynyk. The dude has turned himself into a more complete player that I think can play in the NBA. He also a good passer out of the post. It almost as though someone waved a magic wand over him and remade him. He's just an average athlete, but when you think about it, there aren't that many great athlete's at the center position anymore.
I wouldn't say completely successful, because there's way too many variables that can affect a player's career trajectory, but I've had some success weeding out a few overrated players. Adam Morrison, Hilton Armstrong, things of that nature. But there's misses--I brought it up with Brandon Roy, DWill, Paul Millsap.
I can pull out my ranks for the 2011 and 2012 drafts, although back then I didn't really care as much about the player's ability to play their NBA position well relative to their height. Still, I thought I was somewhat on the mark:
2011:
PREDICTED CORRECTLY:
1 Kyrie Irving
5 Jonas Valunciunas
7 Kemba Walker
11 Iman Shumpert
12 Klay Thompson
13 Jordan Hamilton
14 Kawhi Leonard
15 Brandon Knight
16 Tobias Harris
17 Markieff Morris
18 Jimmy Butler
22 Jimmer Fredette
23 Charles Jenkins
24 Reggie Jackson
27 Isaiah Thomas
28 Donatas Motiejunas
35 Kyle Singler
43 Norris Cole
45 DeAndre Liggins
50 Darius Morris
59 Nolan Smith
64 Jan Vesely
INCORRECT (SHOULD BE LOWER):
2 Bismack Biyombo
3 Derrick Williams
4 Tristan Thompson
6 Chris Singleton
8 Alec Burks
9 Nikola Mirotic
10 Tyler Honeycutt
19 Josh Selby
20 Gary Flowers
21 Ben Hansbrough
25 Shelvin Mack
26 JaJuan Johnson
29 Jordan Williams
30 Xavi Rabaseda
INCORRECT (SHOULD BE HIGHER):
31 Marcus Morris
41 Nikola Vucevic
42 Kenneth Faried
44 Marshon Brooks
49 Greg Smith
55 E'Twaun Moore
61 Chandler Parsons
75 Lavoy Allen
So about 21 hits and 22 misses. Very 50/50 on this.
2012:
PREDICTED CORRECTLY:
1 Anthony Davis
2 Bradley Beal
3 Michael Gilchrist
5 Dion Waiters
6 John Henson
8 Jared Sullinger
9 Jae Crowder
10 Moe Harkless
17 Kendall Marshall
19 John Jenkins
20 Will Barton
21 Harrison Barnes
22 Terrence Ross
26 Thomas Robinson
28 Jared Cunningham
29 Tyler Zeller
32 Bernard James
33 Doron Lamb
34 Perry Jones
35 Meyers Leonard
36 Jeff Taylor
41 Arnett Moultrie
43 Fab Melo
45 Austin Rivers
58 Robert Sacre
91 Festus Ezeli
INCORRECT (SHOULD BE LOWER)
4 Terrence Jones
7 Quincy Miller
11 Jeremy Lamb
12 Robbie Hummel
13 John Shurna
16 Chris Johnson
27 Marcus Denmon
30 Kris Joseph
INCORRECT (SHOULD BE HIGHER)
14 Damian Lillard
37 Andre Drummond
56 Marquis Teague
This one's 26-11 so far, so it's been pretty good.
This year, I have a big board full of whatever NBA prospect there is, and it looks like this:
1 Marcus Smart
2 Nerlens Noel
3 Jordan Adams
4 Michael Carter-Williams
5 Ben McLemore
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
7 Cody Zeller
8 Anthony Bennett
9 Otto Porter
10 Kyle Anderson
11 Jeff Withey
12 Daniel Theis
13 PJ Hairston
14 Lucas Noguiera
15 Alex Len
But among guys who are likely to declare for the draft, probably something like this:
1 Marcus Smart
2 Nerlens Noel
3 Michael Carter-Williams
4 Ben McLemore
5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
6 Cody Zeller
7 Anthony Bennett
8 Otto Porter
9 Jeff Withey
10 Lucas Noguiera
11 Alex Len
12 Archie Goodwin
13 Glenn Robinson III
14 Trey Burke
15 Gorgui Dieng
As I mentioned, this season I started to focus more on whether players looked like tweeners on the court, so here's hoping that my predictions are more accurate--they seem to be improving every year.
I can pull out my ranks for the 2011 and 2012 drafts, although back then I didn't really care as much about the player's ability to play their NBA position well relative to their height. Still, I thought I was somewhat on the mark:
2011:
PREDICTED CORRECTLY:
1 Kyrie Irving
5 Jonas Valunciunas
7 Kemba Walker
11 Iman Shumpert
12 Klay Thompson
13 Jordan Hamilton
14 Kawhi Leonard
15 Brandon Knight
16 Tobias Harris
17 Markieff Morris
18 Jimmy Butler
22 Jimmer Fredette
23 Charles Jenkins
24 Reggie Jackson
27 Isaiah Thomas
28 Donatas Motiejunas
35 Kyle Singler
43 Norris Cole
45 DeAndre Liggins
50 Darius Morris
59 Nolan Smith
64 Jan Vesely
INCORRECT (SHOULD BE LOWER):
2 Bismack Biyombo
3 Derrick Williams
4 Tristan Thompson
6 Chris Singleton
8 Alec Burks
9 Nikola Mirotic
10 Tyler Honeycutt
19 Josh Selby
20 Gary Flowers
21 Ben Hansbrough
25 Shelvin Mack
26 JaJuan Johnson
29 Jordan Williams
30 Xavi Rabaseda
INCORRECT (SHOULD BE HIGHER):
31 Marcus Morris
41 Nikola Vucevic
42 Kenneth Faried
44 Marshon Brooks
49 Greg Smith
55 E'Twaun Moore
61 Chandler Parsons
75 Lavoy Allen
So about 21 hits and 22 misses. Very 50/50 on this.
2012:
PREDICTED CORRECTLY:
1 Anthony Davis
2 Bradley Beal
3 Michael Gilchrist
5 Dion Waiters
6 John Henson
8 Jared Sullinger
9 Jae Crowder
10 Moe Harkless
17 Kendall Marshall
19 John Jenkins
20 Will Barton
21 Harrison Barnes
22 Terrence Ross
26 Thomas Robinson
28 Jared Cunningham
29 Tyler Zeller
32 Bernard James
33 Doron Lamb
34 Perry Jones
35 Meyers Leonard
36 Jeff Taylor
41 Arnett Moultrie
43 Fab Melo
45 Austin Rivers
58 Robert Sacre
91 Festus Ezeli
INCORRECT (SHOULD BE LOWER)
4 Terrence Jones
7 Quincy Miller
11 Jeremy Lamb
12 Robbie Hummel
13 John Shurna
16 Chris Johnson
27 Marcus Denmon
30 Kris Joseph
INCORRECT (SHOULD BE HIGHER)
14 Damian Lillard
37 Andre Drummond
56 Marquis Teague
This one's 26-11 so far, so it's been pretty good.
This year, I have a big board full of whatever NBA prospect there is, and it looks like this:
1 Marcus Smart
2 Nerlens Noel
3 Jordan Adams
4 Michael Carter-Williams
5 Ben McLemore
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
7 Cody Zeller
8 Anthony Bennett
9 Otto Porter
10 Kyle Anderson
11 Jeff Withey
12 Daniel Theis
13 PJ Hairston
14 Lucas Noguiera
15 Alex Len
But among guys who are likely to declare for the draft, probably something like this:
1 Marcus Smart
2 Nerlens Noel
3 Michael Carter-Williams
4 Ben McLemore
5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
6 Cody Zeller
7 Anthony Bennett
8 Otto Porter
9 Jeff Withey
10 Lucas Noguiera
11 Alex Len
12 Archie Goodwin
13 Glenn Robinson III
14 Trey Burke
15 Gorgui Dieng
As I mentioned, this season I started to focus more on whether players looked like tweeners on the court, so here's hoping that my predictions are more accurate--they seem to be improving every year.
Wells contributes to the problem. I don't want to single out one player, because it doesn't seem to matter what combination they have on the floor, the ball never seems to go into Len. Well is actually not a bad player, and he's a decent shooter. It just seems that Len is an afterthought on the team, and he's probably the best player on the team.
Siince no one asked me for my list of favorites, I'll give it anyway. Bear in mind, that it could change by seasons end, as could the order. I'm simply listing them in the order I would draft them with the Kings in mind, and I'm sure its quite different from most draft boards. I've listed the measurements from the Lebron James skills academy when available.
1. Nerlens Noel: C/PF, 6'11" w/shoes, 7'4" wingspan, 215 Lbs, 32.3 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 59.1% FGP, 9.5 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 4.6 Blocks per game.
2. Ben McLemore: SG, 6'4.5" w/shoes, 6'7" wingspan, 194 Lbs, 31.3 MPG, 16.3 PPG, 50% FGP, 42.6% 3PP, 5.5 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1 block per game
3. Marcus Smart: PG, 6'4", 200 Lbs, 33.1 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 40.4% FGP, 27.7% 3PP, 5.9 RPG, 4.7 APG, 3.0 SPG.
4. Otto Porter: SF, 6'8" w/shoes, 7'1" wingspan, 200 Lbs, 33.7 MPG, 14.8 PPG, 51.3% FGP, 46.2% 3PP, 7.6 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.1 Blocks per game.
5. Anthony Bennett: PF, 6'7" w/shoes, 7'1" wingspan, 239 Lbs, 28.2 MPG, 17.9 PPG, 52.7% FGP, 35.4% 3PP, 8.2 RPG, 1.0 Blocks per game.
6.Shabazz Muhammad: SG/SF, 6'5.75" w/shoes, 6'11.25" wingspan, 223 Lbs, 29.8 MPG, 18.4 PPG, 46.9% FGP, 46.2% 3PP, 4.8 RPG.
7.Willie Cauley-Stein: C/PF, 7'1.25" w/shoes, 7'2" wingspan, 244 Lbs, 20.1 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 62.8% FGP, 37.2% 3PP, 5.6 RPG, 1.8 Blocks per game.
8. Alex Len: Center, 7'1", 255 Lbs, 26.1 MPG, 12.7 PPG, 54.7% FGP, 8.2 RPG, 1.9 Blocks per game.
9. Michael Carter-Williams: PG, 6'5" w/shoes, 6'5" wingspan, 175 Lbs, 33.8 MPG, 12.2 PPG, 35.9% FGP, 28.0% 3PP, 4.7 RPG, 8.5 APG, 3.0 SPG.
10. Victor Oladipo: SG, 6'5", 210 Lbs, 27.9 MPG, 14.0 PPG, 64.4% FGP, 51.4% 3PP, 5.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 2.5 SPG.
11. Jeff Withey: Center, 6'11.5" w/shoes, 7'1.5" wingspan, 240 Lbs, 30.2 MPG, 13.0 PPG, 55.9% FGP, 8.3 RPG, 4.2 Blocks per game.
12. Trey Burke: PG, 6'0" w/shoes, 6'5" wingspan, 185 Lbs, 34.5 MPG, 18.0 PPG, 48.5% FGP, 37.8% 3PP, 3.2 RPG, 7.2 APG, 1.4 SPG.
13. Cody Zeller: Center, 6'11.5" w/shoes, 6'8" wingspan, 240 Lbs, 28.7 MPG, 16.3 PPG, 59.6% FGP, 8.3 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.4 Blocks per game.
14. Glenn Robinson III: SF/SG, 6'6", 210 Lbs, 33.3 MPG, 11.3 PPG, 56.8% FGP, 39.1% 3PP, 5.5 RPG, 1.3 APG
15. C.J. McCollum: SG/PG, 6'3" w/shoes, 6'6" wingspan, 192 Lbs, 31.0 MPG, 23.9 PPG, 49.5% FGP, 51.6% 3PP, 5.0 RPG, 2.9 APG.
16. Alex Poythress: SF, 6'8" w/shoes, 7'1" wingspan, 213 Lbs, 25.3 MPG, 12.5 PPG, 60.8% FGP, 45.5% 3PP, 6.6 RPG.
17. Gorqui Dieng: C/PG, 6'11", 245 Lbs, 30.0 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 49.1% FGP, 9.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 2.7 Blocks per game.
18. Isaiah Austin: Center, 7'1" w/shoes, 7'3" wingspan, 220 Lbs, 31.6 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 48.4% FGP, 33.3% 3PP, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG.
19. Archie Goodwin: SG, 6'5" w/shoes, 6'10" wingspan, 195 Lbs, 32.4 MPG, 14.7 PPG, 43.2% FGP, 26.2% 3PP, 4.9 RPG, 3.2 APG.
20. Mike Muscala: PF/C, 6'11", 234 Lbs. 31.7 MPG, 18.7 PPG, 51.3% FGP, 37.5% 3PP, 11.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, 2.8 Blocks per game.
Aside from those 20, here are some of my personaly favorites, most of which are from smaller conferences.
1. Chris Obekpa: PF, 6'9" w/shoes, 7'4" wingspan, 224 Lbs, 25.6 MPG, 3.8 PPG, 42.2% FGP, 5.7 RPG, 1.2 APG, 4.4 Blocks per game.
2. Nate Wolters: PG, 6'4", 193 Lbs, 37.4 MPG, 22.8 PPG, 48.4% FGP, 40.2% 3PP, 5.8 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.7 SPG.
3. Kelly Olynyk: Center, 7'0", 238 Lbs, 25.3 MPG, 17.7 PPG, 65.2% FGP, 35.3% 3PP, 6.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.0 Blocks per game
4. Mathew Dellavedova: PG, 6'4", 190 Lbs, 35.6 MPG, 15.9 PPG, 43.2% FGP, 38.7% 3PP, 6.6 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 2.0 Blocks.
5. Isaiah Canaan: PG, 6'1", 195 Lbs, 35.6 MPG, 21.0 PPG, 44.1% FGP, 38.6% 3PP, 3.7 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.6 SPG, 3.0 Blocks per game.
Let me point out again. These players are my favorites, and not necessarily who I think will be drafted in the first round.
1. Nerlens Noel: C/PF, 6'11" w/shoes, 7'4" wingspan, 215 Lbs, 32.3 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 59.1% FGP, 9.5 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 4.6 Blocks per game.
2. Ben McLemore: SG, 6'4.5" w/shoes, 6'7" wingspan, 194 Lbs, 31.3 MPG, 16.3 PPG, 50% FGP, 42.6% 3PP, 5.5 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1 block per game
3. Marcus Smart: PG, 6'4", 200 Lbs, 33.1 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 40.4% FGP, 27.7% 3PP, 5.9 RPG, 4.7 APG, 3.0 SPG.
4. Otto Porter: SF, 6'8" w/shoes, 7'1" wingspan, 200 Lbs, 33.7 MPG, 14.8 PPG, 51.3% FGP, 46.2% 3PP, 7.6 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.1 Blocks per game.
5. Anthony Bennett: PF, 6'7" w/shoes, 7'1" wingspan, 239 Lbs, 28.2 MPG, 17.9 PPG, 52.7% FGP, 35.4% 3PP, 8.2 RPG, 1.0 Blocks per game.
6.Shabazz Muhammad: SG/SF, 6'5.75" w/shoes, 6'11.25" wingspan, 223 Lbs, 29.8 MPG, 18.4 PPG, 46.9% FGP, 46.2% 3PP, 4.8 RPG.
7.Willie Cauley-Stein: C/PF, 7'1.25" w/shoes, 7'2" wingspan, 244 Lbs, 20.1 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 62.8% FGP, 37.2% 3PP, 5.6 RPG, 1.8 Blocks per game.
8. Alex Len: Center, 7'1", 255 Lbs, 26.1 MPG, 12.7 PPG, 54.7% FGP, 8.2 RPG, 1.9 Blocks per game.
9. Michael Carter-Williams: PG, 6'5" w/shoes, 6'5" wingspan, 175 Lbs, 33.8 MPG, 12.2 PPG, 35.9% FGP, 28.0% 3PP, 4.7 RPG, 8.5 APG, 3.0 SPG.
10. Victor Oladipo: SG, 6'5", 210 Lbs, 27.9 MPG, 14.0 PPG, 64.4% FGP, 51.4% 3PP, 5.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 2.5 SPG.
11. Jeff Withey: Center, 6'11.5" w/shoes, 7'1.5" wingspan, 240 Lbs, 30.2 MPG, 13.0 PPG, 55.9% FGP, 8.3 RPG, 4.2 Blocks per game.
12. Trey Burke: PG, 6'0" w/shoes, 6'5" wingspan, 185 Lbs, 34.5 MPG, 18.0 PPG, 48.5% FGP, 37.8% 3PP, 3.2 RPG, 7.2 APG, 1.4 SPG.
13. Cody Zeller: Center, 6'11.5" w/shoes, 6'8" wingspan, 240 Lbs, 28.7 MPG, 16.3 PPG, 59.6% FGP, 8.3 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.4 Blocks per game.
14. Glenn Robinson III: SF/SG, 6'6", 210 Lbs, 33.3 MPG, 11.3 PPG, 56.8% FGP, 39.1% 3PP, 5.5 RPG, 1.3 APG
15. C.J. McCollum: SG/PG, 6'3" w/shoes, 6'6" wingspan, 192 Lbs, 31.0 MPG, 23.9 PPG, 49.5% FGP, 51.6% 3PP, 5.0 RPG, 2.9 APG.
16. Alex Poythress: SF, 6'8" w/shoes, 7'1" wingspan, 213 Lbs, 25.3 MPG, 12.5 PPG, 60.8% FGP, 45.5% 3PP, 6.6 RPG.
17. Gorqui Dieng: C/PG, 6'11", 245 Lbs, 30.0 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 49.1% FGP, 9.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 2.7 Blocks per game.
18. Isaiah Austin: Center, 7'1" w/shoes, 7'3" wingspan, 220 Lbs, 31.6 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 48.4% FGP, 33.3% 3PP, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG.
19. Archie Goodwin: SG, 6'5" w/shoes, 6'10" wingspan, 195 Lbs, 32.4 MPG, 14.7 PPG, 43.2% FGP, 26.2% 3PP, 4.9 RPG, 3.2 APG.
20. Mike Muscala: PF/C, 6'11", 234 Lbs. 31.7 MPG, 18.7 PPG, 51.3% FGP, 37.5% 3PP, 11.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, 2.8 Blocks per game.
Aside from those 20, here are some of my personaly favorites, most of which are from smaller conferences.
1. Chris Obekpa: PF, 6'9" w/shoes, 7'4" wingspan, 224 Lbs, 25.6 MPG, 3.8 PPG, 42.2% FGP, 5.7 RPG, 1.2 APG, 4.4 Blocks per game.
2. Nate Wolters: PG, 6'4", 193 Lbs, 37.4 MPG, 22.8 PPG, 48.4% FGP, 40.2% 3PP, 5.8 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.7 SPG.
3. Kelly Olynyk: Center, 7'0", 238 Lbs, 25.3 MPG, 17.7 PPG, 65.2% FGP, 35.3% 3PP, 6.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.0 Blocks per game
4. Mathew Dellavedova: PG, 6'4", 190 Lbs, 35.6 MPG, 15.9 PPG, 43.2% FGP, 38.7% 3PP, 6.6 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 2.0 Blocks.
5. Isaiah Canaan: PG, 6'1", 195 Lbs, 35.6 MPG, 21.0 PPG, 44.1% FGP, 38.6% 3PP, 3.7 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.6 SPG, 3.0 Blocks per game.
Let me point out again. These players are my favorites, and not necessarily who I think will be drafted in the first round.
I'm sure Baja has much more thorough thoughts on Leslie than I do, especially since C.J. has been a draft prospect for the last three years, but my basic take is that Leslie isn't a very good basketball player and doesn't work very hard. He's got some tempting ballhandling skills for a player his size and a nice-looking stroke that doesn't seem to fall (25% 3PT shooting), but that's about it. He seems lost in the post on offense and I think he's even worse on defense. He plays bad D in the paint, and pretty refuses to even leave the paint so he plays essentially no defense on the perimeter.
I think there's a reason he's not projected to go in the top-ten, and I wouldn't really give him a look at all unless he drops to the second round.
I think there's a reason he's not projected to go in the top-ten, and I wouldn't really give him a look at all unless he drops to the second round.
I think I said once that I wouldn't give you the powder to blow him to hell. A bit extreme, but as you can see, I'm not a big fan of Leslie. Leslie is another one of that long line of great athlete's that always teases you with all those possibilities, and never delivers. He still can't hit an outside shot consistently, and has this frustrating trait of just disappearing for long periods of time during games. last year in the tounament, he suddenly decided to play and for about 12 minutes of a game, he made an impact. And I thought, just where the hell have you been. I agree with the Capt. If he were to slide to the second round, then I might consider him. But there's no way I would waste a first round pick on the guy. But hey, I wish him well, and it would make my happy if he proved me wrong. But I'll take bets!
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is an incredible name.
Also - it seems like Otto Porter should be getting a little more national love. Great length for an SF, he's only 19 (with 2 years of college ball under his belt) and is shooting almost .500 from 3. Great rebounding numbers. He seems to be the total package for an SF these days... theoretically able to defend the Durant/James type.
Is there something I'm missing with him? I mean, if you take the SG's off the board (Muhammed/McLemore) ... is there a better fit for this team in this draft than Otto Porter? outside of Noel, of course.
I always consider the makeup of the Kings when it comes draft time. I'm not a BPA guy. Never have been, unless its a drastic drop off, because if you're drafting someone at a position where they will get no playing time, chances are they won't develop. Or they will develop for a different team that will give them playing time. Noel fits my BPA mold. He's the #1 guy, you have to take him. After that ... We would be foolish to draft another SG, unless we plan on losing Tyreke Evans, which would also be foolish. I think this team could still use a PG, SF, and a BIG big. Someone taller than Hayes or Robinson. And I don't love any of the top PG options this year. With that being said, I like ..
1) Noel
2) Porter
3) Cauley-Stein
And unless we win the lottery, Noel will be off the board, but I think we'd fall right in line for either Porter or Cauley-Stein.
Also - it seems like Otto Porter should be getting a little more national love. Great length for an SF, he's only 19 (with 2 years of college ball under his belt) and is shooting almost .500 from 3. Great rebounding numbers. He seems to be the total package for an SF these days... theoretically able to defend the Durant/James type.
Is there something I'm missing with him? I mean, if you take the SG's off the board (Muhammed/McLemore) ... is there a better fit for this team in this draft than Otto Porter? outside of Noel, of course.
I always consider the makeup of the Kings when it comes draft time. I'm not a BPA guy. Never have been, unless its a drastic drop off, because if you're drafting someone at a position where they will get no playing time, chances are they won't develop. Or they will develop for a different team that will give them playing time. Noel fits my BPA mold. He's the #1 guy, you have to take him. After that ... We would be foolish to draft another SG, unless we plan on losing Tyreke Evans, which would also be foolish. I think this team could still use a PG, SF, and a BIG big. Someone taller than Hayes or Robinson. And I don't love any of the top PG options this year. With that being said, I like ..
1) Noel
2) Porter
3) Cauley-Stein
And unless we win the lottery, Noel will be off the board, but I think we'd fall right in line for either Porter or Cauley-Stein.
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I think you meant Jordan Adams at #3.
I can't speak for Baja/Arby's but I'm not 100% sold on Jordan Adams. He came out with a really hot start to the season but has cooled off considerably. He's really not very athletic and came into the season a bit tubby/flabby. He's supposed to be losing some weight but I don't know if he's going to have the speed to be a SG in the NBA. I would point out that Arby's is probably in the minority here - Adams seems to be a lock to return at least for his sophomore year and isn't listed on even the 2014 draft for either DraftExpress or NBADraft.net. Listing him at #3 overall is definitely going out on a limb relative to the current consensus.
I can't speak for Baja/Arby's but I'm not 100% sold on Jordan Adams. He came out with a really hot start to the season but has cooled off considerably. He's really not very athletic and came into the season a bit tubby/flabby. He's supposed to be losing some weight but I don't know if he's going to have the speed to be a SG in the NBA. I would point out that Arby's is probably in the minority here - Adams seems to be a lock to return at least for his sophomore year and isn't listed on even the 2014 draft for either DraftExpress or NBADraft.net. Listing him at #3 overall is definitely going out on a limb relative to the current consensus.
His system is most likely based on stats and advanced statistics is not 'Bazz's biggest friend, unless we're talking shooting percentages.
This gives me opportunity to post this
This gives me opportunity to post this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDRljyUORuo
His team win yet he's unhappy because he didn't get the last shot. Not sure thats the type of character id want to be drafting. Especially on our team.
Probably not quite fair when it comes to players this young, but I place a little more emphasis on the ability to shoot the ball from the outside for perimeter players than Arby does. I keep waiting for Carter-Williams to start hitting his shot more consistently, and so far he hasn't. However, last season he shot the ball very well from the outside. I can only guess that the added responsibilities of playing the point, and the added minutes, is affecting his outside shot.
I like Jordan Adams, but once again, inconsistent outside shot. Now you could turn around and say, well, you have Marcus Smart ranked high, and his outside shot isn't very good either. And you'd be right. But Smart is a freak athlete that can totally disrupt the other teams offense on the defensive side of the ball. He leads college in steals per 40 minutes, barely edging out Oladipo, and guess who comes in third in that dept? None other than Michael Carter-Williams. Some of my judgement just comes from the eyeball test. Putting all the stats aside, and just watching someone play, can make a big difference with me. Seldom do I watch Smart play, when he doesn't do something in a game that impresses me. He may go 4 for 14 from the floor, but he'll still have an impact on the game.
In the end, Arby may be right and I may be wrong. You have your hits and misses. For example, I didn't think that Durant would be as good as he's turned out to be. At Texas he was mostly a chucker, and an inconsistent one at that. But what you can never account for is how hard someone will work on his game. But I also predicted that Harden would be a very good player. Others that I really liked were Chandler Parsons, MarShon Brooks, Grievous Vasquez. This year, a player in the Vasquez mold that I like is Nate Wolters, from South Dakota St. The best way I can describe him is Tough, tough, and tougher! He's like a pitt bull on both ends of the court. And Mathew Dellavedova from St. Marys. He just doesn't look like a basketball player until he steps on the court.
But lets go back to Jordan Adams for a moment. I like him, but do I like him better than Tim Hardaway Jr. from Michigan? No! I don't. The only thing Williams has going for him is youth. Hardaway Jr. is a junior, but right now, he's a better basketball player, and he's also shooting 43.8% from the three, and 48.4% overall. And at 6'6", he's capable of playing both SG and SF. The only edge I give Williams, is that he's a little better defensive player. The fact is, shooting guards are a dime a dozen, unless their very special. I know everyone was excited about Thornton when he arrived, but I'd bet you that if we were to trade for Jeremy Lamb, he could step in and easily replace Thornton, and improve our defense at the same time. It might take him a year, but overall, I believe he has more talent than Thornton. Of course, thats just my opinion! And just for the record, I predicted that Mike Bibby would be a much better PG than Steve Nash. You just never know for sure!
I like Jordan Adams, but once again, inconsistent outside shot. Now you could turn around and say, well, you have Marcus Smart ranked high, and his outside shot isn't very good either. And you'd be right. But Smart is a freak athlete that can totally disrupt the other teams offense on the defensive side of the ball. He leads college in steals per 40 minutes, barely edging out Oladipo, and guess who comes in third in that dept? None other than Michael Carter-Williams. Some of my judgement just comes from the eyeball test. Putting all the stats aside, and just watching someone play, can make a big difference with me. Seldom do I watch Smart play, when he doesn't do something in a game that impresses me. He may go 4 for 14 from the floor, but he'll still have an impact on the game.
In the end, Arby may be right and I may be wrong. You have your hits and misses. For example, I didn't think that Durant would be as good as he's turned out to be. At Texas he was mostly a chucker, and an inconsistent one at that. But what you can never account for is how hard someone will work on his game. But I also predicted that Harden would be a very good player. Others that I really liked were Chandler Parsons, MarShon Brooks, Grievous Vasquez. This year, a player in the Vasquez mold that I like is Nate Wolters, from South Dakota St. The best way I can describe him is Tough, tough, and tougher! He's like a pitt bull on both ends of the court. And Mathew Dellavedova from St. Marys. He just doesn't look like a basketball player until he steps on the court.
But lets go back to Jordan Adams for a moment. I like him, but do I like him better than Tim Hardaway Jr. from Michigan? No! I don't. The only thing Williams has going for him is youth. Hardaway Jr. is a junior, but right now, he's a better basketball player, and he's also shooting 43.8% from the three, and 48.4% overall. And at 6'6", he's capable of playing both SG and SF. The only edge I give Williams, is that he's a little better defensive player. The fact is, shooting guards are a dime a dozen, unless their very special. I know everyone was excited about Thornton when he arrived, but I'd bet you that if we were to trade for Jeremy Lamb, he could step in and easily replace Thornton, and improve our defense at the same time. It might take him a year, but overall, I believe he has more talent than Thornton. Of course, thats just my opinion! And just for the record, I predicted that Mike Bibby would be a much better PG than Steve Nash. You just never know for sure!
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Great minds think alike. You have them in the precise order that I do. My first choice for the Kings would be Noel. No brainer there! But I really like Porter. About the only knock that I've heard about him is that he's not an elite athlete, and I'll give them that. But as far as skills, and BBIQ go, he's at the head of the class, and he can play on my team any day. And, I'm also a big fan of Willie Cauley-Stein, who is a little raw, but seems to be learning quickly, and might be ahead of Noel as far as BBIQ goes. Not only is he a legit 7 footer in shoes, with a nice wingspan, he's athletic enough to guard PF's. So he can play both center or PF.
If I had to choose a PG from this class right now, it would be Trey Burke from Michigan. He's only 6 foot, but he has a big wingspan, and he can play the position extremely well, and on both ends of the court. Long range, both Marcus Smart and Michael Carter-Williams might prove to be better, but Burke is good right now, and he can shoot the rock.
If I had to choose a PG from this class right now, it would be Trey Burke from Michigan. He's only 6 foot, but he has a big wingspan, and he can play the position extremely well, and on both ends of the court. Long range, both Marcus Smart and Michael Carter-Williams might prove to be better, but Burke is good right now, and he can shoot the rock.
His system is most likely based on stats and advanced statistics is not 'Bazz's biggest friend, unless we're talking shooting percentages.
This gives me opportunity to post this
This gives me opportunity to post this
By the way, my mock draft/big boards have always went against popular opinion on many players--I don't look for who strikes me as an awesome player, I look at what specific set of skills are easily translatable to the league. It's a crapshoot that has uncovered some gems, but that have also overlooked some players (particularly some 3rd/4th year players, although it has also identified many of these as busts as well).
Jordan Adams kind of reminds me of James Harden without the passing. Now, I realize James Harden without the passing might not be much of anything, since it is precisely Harden's threat of passing that opens up all his driving lanes and allows him to draw fouls at will. But Harden wasn't that great a passer at college either. Adams, for all we know, might uncover some passing ability in the more spread-out NBA, because, like Harden, he loves to spot up from deep and get to the hole--that's an excellent trait to have in college, especially when you're 6'5" and not 6'1". The other thing I like about Adams is he's got really quick hands and makes a ton of defensive plays. And he's doing all this as a freshman, so he has a ton of room to improve--there's a lot of 2-way potential with him. I look at the overall picture with a guy like Adams and there's a lot to work with.
Baja brought up Tim Hardaway Jr. Excellent question. There's similarities. Hardaway Jr is also another guy who has a diverse offensive game--he's more of a jumpshooter than Adams is, but for someone who takes so many jumpers he does a reasonable job at slashing and drawing fouls as well. I just wonder, for a inclined jumpshooter, whether he's that good a shooter at the NBA level. I've seen enough misses at the stripe, and enough misses from deep in his three years, to believe that he's really an average jumpshooter. Adams is also cold from outside, but he's more money from the stripe and to me that lends greater hope about his jumper. Hardaway Jr is a junior (no pun intended) and has been doing this for three years, so this may be who he is. The other major difference is that Hardaway Jr isn't much of an entity defensively--he's just a body, not one to really put pressure and make plays. He also appears to be a worse passer than Adams. So the overall picture is an inclined jumpshooter who's average, not much of a defensive playmaker. To be honest, I see him as a Jarvis Hayes type, and that's a stark difference from my expectations of Adams. But, opinion and stuff, and of course I'm open to counterarguments.
Jordan Adams kind of reminds me of James Harden without the passing. Now, I realize James Harden without the passing might not be much of anything, since it is precisely Harden's threat of passing that opens up all his driving lanes and allows him to draw fouls at will. But Harden wasn't that great a passer at college either. Adams, for all we know, might uncover some passing ability in the more spread-out NBA, because, like Harden, he loves to spot up from deep and get to the hole--that's an excellent trait to have in college, especially when you're 6'5" and not 6'1". The other thing I like about Adams is he's got really quick hands and makes a ton of defensive plays. And he's doing all this as a freshman, so he has a ton of room to improve--there's a lot of 2-way potential with him. I look at the overall picture with a guy like Adams and there's a lot to work with.
Baja brought up Tim Hardaway Jr. Excellent question. There's similarities. Hardaway Jr is also another guy who has a diverse offensive game--he's more of a jumpshooter than Adams is, but for someone who takes so many jumpers he does a reasonable job at slashing and drawing fouls as well. I just wonder, for a inclined jumpshooter, whether he's that good a shooter at the NBA level. I've seen enough misses at the stripe, and enough misses from deep in his three years, to believe that he's really an average jumpshooter. Adams is also cold from outside, but he's more money from the stripe and to me that lends greater hope about his jumper. Hardaway Jr is a junior (no pun intended) and has been doing this for three years, so this may be who he is. The other major difference is that Hardaway Jr isn't much of an entity defensively--he's just a body, not one to really put pressure and make plays. He also appears to be a worse passer than Adams. So the overall picture is an inclined jumpshooter who's average, not much of a defensive playmaker. To be honest, I see him as a Jarvis Hayes type, and that's a stark difference from my expectations of Adams. But, opinion and stuff, and of course I'm open to counterarguments.
As I stated, Porter isn't an above average athlete, but then, neither was Larry Bird. But like Bird, his BBIQ is off the charts, and he may have the best BBIQ in all of college. While his athleticism is a little suspect, I think to overlook what he does on the floor is foolish. He gets his share of steals, and is a good weakside shotblocker for a SF. He's a very good rebounder, averaging just under 8 boards a game, and he's an excellent passer. As I said earlier, he might be the most skilled SF in college.
I know we get caught up in this defensive stuff, and as a result pass on players that end up killing us down the road, and we wonder why we passed on that player. It always amazes me how we don't want this player or that player because their not good enough for our lousy team, but then they end up on a team contending for a championship. How is it that they're good enough for a good team, but not us. And I'm speaking in general here, and not about you Kingster.
Arby brought up freethrow shooting as a parameter in his analysis. I used too, but gave it up because too many times, it just didn't bear any fruit. For instance, Tyreke is a good freethrow shooter, but isn't a good jumpshooter, recent stats aside. I will admit, that in general, most good jumpshooters are also good freethrow shooters. Jimmer being an example of that. But I've seen quite a few players that were good freethrow shooters that never became good jumpshooters, and generally the reason is form. For instance, if you watch T. Robb take a jumpshot, he has very good motion and form, and thats why I think its only a matter of time and practice before he becomes consistent with his jumpshot. However, when he goes to the freethrow line, his form is terrible and very mechanical. As a result, at least so far, he's not a good freethrow shooter.
Now in the case of a player like Jordan, its very possible that his jumpshot will come later. The old rule, the more I practice, the luckier I get, is a correct one. But its alway a crapshoot to some extent. Will the player put in the work? You just never know. Donte Greene didn't. Nice guy that everybody liked, and wanted to succeed. But he was lazy, and you just never know what someone will do when that first big paycheck arrives. Thats why I like to get as much info on a player in highschool and college as I can. I try and go to the college website and read what the coach or others locally are saying about a player. For instance, I was reading an article about an interview with Victor Oladipo's coach. In the article, he said Victor spent the entire offseason working on his jumpshot. That Victor is always in the gym before anyone else arrives for practice, and has a key to get into the Gym late at night so he can get in extra practice. When I read stuff like that, it moves that player up a few notches on my board.
By the way, Harden was a very good passer in college, and basicly played the Point. He brought up the ball, and started the offense. I had people tell me he wasn't a good athlete. He wasn't a good ballhandler, and wasn't a good passer. I watched the guy play, counting the tournament, over 20 some odd times. All those people were wrong! They found out when he got to the combine that he was a terrific athlete with explosive leaping ability. But then these were the same people that told me that Blake Griffin was undersized, and not athletic. I sometimes wonder what these people are watching, or if they watch at all.
I know we get caught up in this defensive stuff, and as a result pass on players that end up killing us down the road, and we wonder why we passed on that player. It always amazes me how we don't want this player or that player because their not good enough for our lousy team, but then they end up on a team contending for a championship. How is it that they're good enough for a good team, but not us. And I'm speaking in general here, and not about you Kingster.
Arby brought up freethrow shooting as a parameter in his analysis. I used too, but gave it up because too many times, it just didn't bear any fruit. For instance, Tyreke is a good freethrow shooter, but isn't a good jumpshooter, recent stats aside. I will admit, that in general, most good jumpshooters are also good freethrow shooters. Jimmer being an example of that. But I've seen quite a few players that were good freethrow shooters that never became good jumpshooters, and generally the reason is form. For instance, if you watch T. Robb take a jumpshot, he has very good motion and form, and thats why I think its only a matter of time and practice before he becomes consistent with his jumpshot. However, when he goes to the freethrow line, his form is terrible and very mechanical. As a result, at least so far, he's not a good freethrow shooter.
Now in the case of a player like Jordan, its very possible that his jumpshot will come later. The old rule, the more I practice, the luckier I get, is a correct one. But its alway a crapshoot to some extent. Will the player put in the work? You just never know. Donte Greene didn't. Nice guy that everybody liked, and wanted to succeed. But he was lazy, and you just never know what someone will do when that first big paycheck arrives. Thats why I like to get as much info on a player in highschool and college as I can. I try and go to the college website and read what the coach or others locally are saying about a player. For instance, I was reading an article about an interview with Victor Oladipo's coach. In the article, he said Victor spent the entire offseason working on his jumpshot. That Victor is always in the gym before anyone else arrives for practice, and has a key to get into the Gym late at night so he can get in extra practice. When I read stuff like that, it moves that player up a few notches on my board.
By the way, Harden was a very good passer in college, and basicly played the Point. He brought up the ball, and started the offense. I had people tell me he wasn't a good athlete. He wasn't a good ballhandler, and wasn't a good passer. I watched the guy play, counting the tournament, over 20 some odd times. All those people were wrong! They found out when he got to the combine that he was a terrific athlete with explosive leaping ability. But then these were the same people that told me that Blake Griffin was undersized, and not athletic. I sometimes wonder what these people are watching, or if they watch at all.
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