Big Men via Free Agency or Trade

[bajaden]

For lack of a better place to post it, I thought I'd mention I watched a few of the televised FIBA U19 games. When I say televised, I mean by computer feed. I was very impressed with Jonas Valanciunas. I think Cleveland made a mistake not taking him over Thompson. No offense to Thompson, but from watching the two games in which he played, I was very, very impressed. He's tall and long and very athletic. He doesn't have much game away from the basket, but he more than makes up for it. First chance I've had to really see him play. He averaged 23 PPG and 13.9 RPG for the tournament and against the U.S. he went for 30 points and 15 rebounds. He's also a pretty good defender and shotblocker. I gotta be honest, he'd look very good next to Cousins.

Well, you can't have everything, and maybe Whiteside will eventually be our version. I think Toronto got themselves a nice player. Still raw in some areas, but a very nice player.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

For lack of a better place to post it, I thought I'd mention I watched a few of the televised FIBA U19 games. When I say televised, I mean by computer feed. I was very impressed with Jonas Valanciunas. I think Cleveland made a mistake not taking him over Thompson.

And just think, if Valanciunas goes #4, then Knight probably goes #5 and all the angst about trading down from #7 to #10 disappears. Would have been a win-win.

 

[bajaden]

And just think, if Valanciunas goes #4, then Knight probably goes #5 and all the angst about trading down from #7 to #10 disappears. Would have been a win-win.

Didn't think of that, but your probably right. Damm Cav's! They need to hire Kahn as their GM.

 

[KingsCitizen]

Looks like a lot of quality young big men are coming next season.
Nbadraft had a new #1 for 2012. The kid is Andre Drummond.

http://blogs.courant.com/uconn_mens_basketball/2011/07/andre-drummond.html#more

Not to mention, we can only see Valanciunas next season.
And the likes of Jared Sullinger, Anthony Davis, and Perry Jones.

 

[rainmaker]

For lack of a better place to post it, I thought I'd mention I watched a few of the televised FIBA U19 games. When I say televised, I mean by computer feed. I was very impressed with Jonas Valanciunas. I think Cleveland made a mistake not taking him over Thompson. No offense to Thompson, but from watching the two games in which he played, I was very, very impressed. He's tall and long and very athletic. He doesn't have much game away from the basket, but he more than makes up for it. First chance I've had to really see him play. He averaged 23 PPG and 13.9 RPG for the tournament and against the U.S. he went for 30 points and 15 rebounds. He's also a pretty good defender and shotblocker. I gotta be honest, he'd look very good next to Cousins.

Well, you can't have everything, and maybe Whiteside will eventually be our version. I think Toronto got themselves a nice player. Still raw in some areas, but a very nice player.

Completely agree. Valanciunas will be a very solid, if not good nba center, which doesn't come around too often. IMO, he could be a Noah with more offensive upside. It's interesting, he's a horrible jump shooter, but a 91% ft shooter. I think there's hope he'll develop a servicable jumper.

And yes, Cle will regret passing on him. He is worth the wait for a rebuilding team, or maybe any team given the lack of decent centers in the league. Down the road, I'd guess he'll contribute at a Bogut/Noah type level, or greater. Not many guys in the league can do that. It's extremely valuable and if Cle just didn't want to wait a year, that's a mistake.

 

[Dreadnought]

Anyone have thoughts about Yi Jianlian? He isn't getting a qualifying offer, and I can see him signing somewhere for cheap... like 1 million? I feel like he'd be a solid 9th man.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Anyone have thoughts about Yi Jianlian? He isn't getting a qualifying offer, and I can see him signing somewhere for cheap... like 1 million? I feel like he'd be a solid 9th man.

I kind of doubt Yi's a 9th man at this point. With Cousins, Hickson, and Thompson he'd be the 4th big at best (leaving room for Whiteside to seize that slot)...and that's only if we don't go out and get one of the big-name guys (Dally/Chandler/Nene/Oden?) in free agency. I do think we need an emergency big man and I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him on board for that, but he's been underwhelming enough for four years that I don't think we'd want him for more than a $1M emergency role.

Unless the league adds the Columbus Chairs before next season. He'd play great against those guys.

 

[bajaden]

I kind of doubt Yi's a 9th man at this point. With Cousins, Hickson, and Thompson he'd be the 4th big at best (leaving room for Whiteside to seize that slot)...and that's only if we don't go out and get one of the big-name guys (Dally/Chandler/Nene/Oden?) in free agency. I do think we need an emergency big man and I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him on board for that, but he's been underwhelming enough for four years that I don't think we'd want him for more than a $1M emergency role.

Unless the league adds the Columbus Chairs before next season. He'd play great against those guys.

Obviously Jianlian has fallen out of grace. To be honest, I've never figured out just exactly what he is as a player. And thats more on him, than on me. So I'm not a big fan of aquiring him. But hey, if he's cheap enough, why not? I'd rather invest a mil on him, than on the Pooh Jeter's of the world. No offense Pooh....

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

Yi's a mid-range binger who struggles with any sort of contact and plays bottom ten type defense in the league. Can't rebound at all. He's at the phase of failed lottery picks where he's just bouncing around from team to team as a mid-20s, low insurance, some reward type guy. In other words, down the track of Adam Morrison, Hilton Armstrong, and Acie Law. By his late 20s he should be out of the league, assuming we know what his real age is.

 

[AleksandarN]

I would like Darko on this team. He could fit in real nice as cheap defensive backup. He is only getting paid 4 million a season

 

[mac]

I would like Darko on this team. He could fit in real nice as cheap defensive backup. He is only getting paid 4 million a season

Kahn would expect Tyreke + Cousins in return.

 

[bajaden]

I would like Darko on this team. He could fit in real nice as cheap defensive backup. He is only getting paid 4 million a season

By saying you would like, I hope you mean that its just a wistful thought. He has three years remaining including this coming season with one more year thats unguaranteed. That means we would have to trade for him. So I have to ask. Whom would you trade to aquire Darko? There's no doubt that he's proven to be a good shotblocker, but his man defense leaves a little to be desired. Also, he has a chance to start at Minny, so would he be happy going back to a bench role?

Remember, as Mac says, Kahn compared Darko to Webber at last years summer league. Its likely that he'll put an exaggerated price tag on him.

 

[KingsCitizen]

I'm surprised that there seems to be no love for the caveman here.
With DeAndre Jordan gaining more love in L.A.'s other team maybe Sterling would really prefer a much cheaper backup big than Kaman.
Kaman has sit a lot of games last season which should be beneficial to his recovery.
And he ain't even in his 30s yet. He will be playing for a contract year next season and I expect him to play real good basketball.

 

[Jespher]

Pure speculation at this point, but all signs are pointing to a looooooooooooooooong lockout, perhaps even losing an entire season. If the season is canceled and the Kings have similar draft position next year (or better if a lottery is done again...) are there any big man prospects at PF or C that they would be likely to take, or would small forward still be the position of most need? Jared Sullinger comes to mind as a true PF banger, but he might go higher than #7 in all likelihood. Thoughts? Would Sullinger be a good fit next to Cousins, or is his defensive range too limited?

 

[bajaden]

Pure speculation at this point, but all signs are pointing to a looooooooooooooooong lockout, perhaps even losing an entire season. If the season is canceled and the Kings have similar draft position next year (or better if a lottery is done again...) are there any big man prospects at PF or C that they would be likely to take, or would small forward still be the position of most need? Jared Sullinger comes to mind as a true PF banger, but he might go higher than #7 in all likelihood. Thoughts? Would Sullinger be a good fit next to Cousins, or is his defensive range too limited?

I'm willing to give Sullinger another year before making a final judgement on his college career. But, based on what I've seen from him so far, I'd say that he's not someone I'd want next to Cousins. He's a good, but not great rebounder, and his offense is somewhat limited to the post. Defensively he's not the quickest guy on the court. Now to be fair to him, he's susposedly worked his butt off this entire offseason, and weighs about 15 pounds less. So I'll wait and see how that affects his game.

At the SF position there's a freshman at Kentucky this year named Michael Gilchrist that I just love. He's a terrific athlete at 6'7" and with a 6'11" wingspan. His outside shot is still inconsistent, but the rest of his game is very good. He's an outstanding defender, and most of all, he has the mentality of a winner.

The best big man in college is another Kentucky freshman, Anthony Davis. A 6'10" PF thats a very good athlete. He grew, depending on who you ask, somewhere between 7 to 9 inches between his sophmore and senior years of highschool. So what you have is a 6'10" player with all the skills of a guard. There's basicly nothing he can't do. He has a floor thats higher than most players ceilings.

Honorable mention has to go to James McAdoo, the nephew of the great Bob McAdoo. Only 6'8.5", so he's a little undersized, but he has a 7'1" Wingspan, so he plays bigger than that. He could possibly end up being a better player than Sullinger.

I'm doing a critique of all the college and highschool players in greater depth in the General fourm if your really interested. You'll see the name Andre Drummond, a 6'10" man child whose future is a little unkown at the moment. But if he's allowed into the draft, a high possibiltiy, he'll certainly be a lottery pick on potential alone.

Edit: I have to mention Perry Jones. He was a big disappointment last year at Baylor, but there's no denying the talent. I'm looking for a breakout year from him. Also from Harrison Barnes of North Carolina, who came on strong at the end of last seaon. So those are two guys from last season to watch. Along with Terrence Jones of Kentucky.

 

[Jespher]

Harrison Barnes looks to have all of the tools and the mentality to be a star at the next level, but I see him as more of a 2 guard than a 3. That would make him a poor fit for this current roster with both Tyreke and Thornton jamming up the position. Love his talent and drive though, if he is able to play the 3, and not get bulled by the physical SFs down low he could be a wonderful pick up with a nice ceiling, and immediate productivity to boot.

 

[bajaden]

Harrison Barnes looks to have all of the tools and the mentality to be a star at the next level, but I see him as more of a 2 guard than a 3. That would make him a poor fit for this current roster with both Tyreke and Thornton jamming up the position. Love his talent and drive though, if he is able to play the 3, and not get bulled by the physical SFs down low he could be a wonderful pick up with a nice ceiling, and immediate productivity to boot.

Not sure why you see him as a SG more than a SF. I saw him play a lot last season, and he did nothing to make me believe he was a SG. He measured out at 6'8.5" in shoes, 223 pounds and with a 6'11" wingspan. If Cisco can play SF at 6'7", and John Salmons can play SF at 6'6", I see no reason Barnes can't. Plus, he doesn't handle the ball well enough to play SG. There are only so many Ron Artests in the league, so I'm not worried about him getting bullied.

 

[bajaden]

CNNSI is doing its post season top 100 player rankings. I thought his critique of Tyson Chandler who comes in at number 35 would be interesting.


35. TYSON CHANDLER
C, unrestricted free agent (Dallas Mavericks)
Age: 28
2010-11 Stats: 10.1 PPG, 65.4 FG%, 73.2 FT%, 9.4 RPG, 0.4 APG, 1.1 BLK

We’re getting into the elite now, and if you watched the 2010-11 season — not just the playoffs or even the Finals, but the entire season — you know Chandler belongs in this group, when healthy. Last season marked a return to health for Chandler after two injury-plagued seasons that followed four straight in which he played at least 73 games. And that one magical season in Dallas proved two things:

1) Chandler might be the second-best defender in the league right now. He’s a beast on the glass (only five players grabbed a higher percentage of available defensive rebounds) and a handful to score against in the post. You can say those things about a decent number of big men, though.

But few of those bigs can jump above the foul line, crouch low to the ground like a Duke guard about to pound the floor and slide step-for-step with LeBron James or Dwyane Wade, creating a wall between the ball and hoop. Chandler didn’t do it alone in Dallas — not with Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion anticipating everything James, Wade and Kevin Durant did in the postseason — but he was the biggest on-court factor, by far, in turning the Mavs into a top-10 defense capable of winning the title.

Having a big guy who can do everything defensively alters a franchise; Dirk Nowitzki often likened Chandler’s impact in Dallas to Garnett’s on the 2007-08 Celtics, and the comparison never seemed over the top. That kind of defense alone is worth big money on the open market.

2) In the right system, Chandler can be an asset on offense, despite his limitations. Those limitations are obvious: Chandler took just 40 shots out of post-ups all season, according to Synergy, and only 51 from outside of 9 feet, according to Hoopdata. (Interesting side note: Chandler went 21-of-44 on long twos after attempting 46 combined in his four previous seasons. This is something to watch.)

Chandler needs a pick-and-roll ball-handler and some shooters to thrive in the lane, but he can indeed thrive. It’s easy to reduce his offensive game to “catch a lob and dunk,” but the reality is more complex. Few centers have his athleticism and leaping ability, and even fewer have that stuff and the ability to catch the ball 10 feet from the basket, gather and score. Chandler needs others to create for him, but he can create space for others on the perimeter because of the threat he poses rolling to the hoop.

Factor in his elite offensive rebounding — only five guys grabbed a higher percentage of available offensive boards — and you have a more complete player than meets the eye. And if you’re wondering why he outranks the rest of Dallas’ championship supporting cast, it’s because of two things: age and size.

 

[bajaden]

Although Tyreke doesn't fall into the big man group, I thought I'd include him here anyway. He came in at number 36 in the rankings. A fair analysis in my opinion.

36. TYREKE EVANS
G, Sacramento Kings
Age: 21
2010-11 Stats: 17.8 PPG, 40.9 FG%, 29.1 3PT%, 5.6 APG, 4.8 RPG, 1.5 STL

Consider this my one super-optimistic reach in the top 100. I love Evans’ game and think he could emerge as a franchise centerpiece capable of playing point guard, shooting guard or small forward – basically whatever the Kings need. But his second season included injuries (plantar fasciitis) and a huge decline in play, and that combination is more damaging than just a plain old injury, in terms of where he falls in the league’s pecking order. Like Bogut, Evans recently said that he feels close to 100 percent. If that’s true, I expect a monster third season from him.

Evans was a woefully inefficient shooter last season, hitting just 40.9 percent of his shots and 29.1 percent of the 2.6 three-point tries he took on average in each game — too many for a guy who shoots like that from deep. His assists and free throws dropped, his turnovers jumped and he just couldn’t finish in the lane like he did in his outstanding first season. He worked too often out of isolation and jacked too many bad shots, habits he’ll hopefully break as he ages and the Kings’ talent around him improves.

And yet, even for stretches of last season, Evans was the Kings’ best backcourt defender, which might not be saying much given the competition. But Evans generally tries on defense, and his long arms, quick feet and strength should make him a plus on that end. The promise of his rookie season was real. If things this season go as right as they should, Evans will be knocking on the top 25 a year from now.

 

[IfAt1st]

Where did Sammy come in in the Top 100?

 

[bajaden]

Where did Sammy come in in the Top 100?

So far he's listed 21 thru 100, and Sammy hasn't made the list. Neither has Cousins, although he stated that he expected Cousins to break into the list big time next year. Salmons came in at number 96. Judging from the players on the list so far, I really doubt that Sammy will be in the top 20, therefore he won't be in the top 100 players in the league. Not saying he's right or wrong, but I would have have had Sammy somewhere on the list, even if it was number 100.

 

[IfAt1st]

Question for thought :
Is someone who's not in the Top 100 players in the league and who's over 30 years old, worth over $10 million a year (multiyear contract)?

 

[bajaden]

Question for thought :
Is someone who's not in the Top 100 players in the league and who's over 30 years old, worth over $10 million a year (multiyear contract)?

Well lets remember that this is just one mans opinion. Now if you just arrived from mars, the answer would probably be no. But if you know exactly what your getting, and he fits exactly what you need, then maybe the answer is yes. Personally, I see Dally as a 7 to 8 mil a year player. I'm sure others see him as being more valuable. When you look around the league and see very few centers that can play defense and block shots, the value goes up. Its all about supply and demand. If the demand is great, and the supply is scarce, then you usually end up overpaying to some extent.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

What Sammy does will never get him on a top-anything list. Thats why he is such a valuable piece. Adside from the occasional dumb play on offense from him, he plays the defender/rebounder role and plays it well. Its just what WE need.

I'm willing to bet that if Sammy was on Dallas instead of Chandler, that team wouldnt have missed a beat. If Sammy plays for a winner, he'll get more respect. That is why I fear Miami.

 

[Telemachus]

What Sammy does will never get him on a top-anything list. Thats why he is such a valuable piece. Adside from the occasional dumb play on offense from him, he plays the defender/rebounder role and plays it well. Its just what WE need.

I'm willing to bet that if Sammy was on Dallas instead of Chandler, that team wouldnt have missed a beat. If Sammy plays for a winner, he'll get more respect. That is why I fear Miami.

I agree that Dallas would have still been good with Sammy, but I don't think they would have been as good. Chandler is a better man defender than Sammy, and even Dirk mentioned how Chandler was constantly talking on defense which helped to keep everyone else playing hard on that end of the floor. I just don't remember seeing Sammy take charge on defense that way for the Kings.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

I agree that Dallas would have still been good with Sammy, but I don't think they would have been as good. Chandler is a better man defender than Sammy, and even Dirk mentioned how Chandler was constantly talking on defense which helped to keep everyone else playing hard on that end of the floor. I just don't remember seeing Sammy take charge on defense that way for the Kings.

You bring up a good point and your probly right. Chandler made more of a chemistry/leadership/toughness difference then Sammy would have, and that has to count for something.

Talentwise though, they are very close .. and for everything Chandler is better than Sammy at you could probly name something Dalembert is better than Chandler at. Like durability.

 

[IfAt1st]

Talentwise though, they are very close .. and for everything Chandler is better than Sammy at you could probly name something Dalembert is better than Chandler at. Like durability.

... and goaltending.

 

[bajaden]

... and goaltending.

I know that goaltending is often brought up as a critiicism of Dalembert. But if you look at goaltending in how its defined, your talking about someone blocking a shot, that probably in 90% or more of the cases, was going to go in anyway. So by goaltending, all your doing is putting a puntuation mark on the basket. Your not giving the other team two points, but if your lucky, and the call doesn't get made, you've taken two points away that they would have had.

What makes Dalembert a good shotblocker is his aggressiveness. And if your aggressive, your going to get some goaltending calls against you. Personally I'd rather have an aggressive player than a passive one. And I'll take all the plusses and minuses that come with it.

 

[Telemachus]

I know that goaltending is often brought up as a critiicism of Dalembert. But if you look at goaltending in how its defined, your talking about someone blocking a shot, that probably in 90% or more of the cases, was going to go in anyway. So by goaltending, all your doing is putting a puntuation mark on the basket. Your not giving the other team two points, but if your lucky, and the call doesn't get made, you've taken two points away that they would have had.

If a player happens to get "star" status, then they will get away with a lot more "goal-tending". Alonzo Mourning used to get away with so many when he was in his prime it used to drive me crazy, and I won't even mention Ben Wallace and how many the refs let him get away with.

 

[Bricklayer]

... and goaltending.

You know, I have debunked that silly claim so many times that it begins to require willful ignorance to continue missing it.

1) the vast majority of blocked shots and goaltends occur down inside, much closer to the hoop than an average shot
2) shots inside are hit at a considerably higher rate than are jumpers outside. Hence most blocked shots and goaltends by goalies come against high percentage shots. makes blocks more valuable, and goaltends less harmful.
3) defensive centers, true interior anchors lurking in the paint, are going to be considerably more prone to goaltends as a group than are the "surprise" shotblocking SFs and PFs who get most of theirs on the perimeter or coming in from behind/the sides
4) if you block 120 shots in a year, and deliver 20 goaltends, you are still roughly +100 on the season. That btw is roughly the percentage of goaltends Dalembert used to get when he was younger (ony stats available). The silly exaggerations about how many goaltends he chalks up are hyperbole at its worst. Maybe 1 for every 5 blocks, and that was when he was younger and less disciplined (2004ish).
5) every good shotblocker, Dalmebert included, intimidates more shots than he actually blocks. Its the hidden value. You rapidly get to the point where a guy blocks 120 shots, intimidates another 120, and you sit there complaingin about the 20 or 25 goaltends. Not tenable.
6) even if you were so determined to be obtuse you ignored every single stat just posted, the Kings were a considerably better defensive team with Dalembert on the floor last year. Flat out. No way to twist it or deny it. Which in the end is all that matters, whether your shotblocker goaltends 20 shots a game, or none at all.