Prospect watch 2011

I've said this a thousand times, and I'll say it again, and this is not an attack on you. But you can't just watch one of two games and know a player. I've watched every single game BYU has played except 2. Amost all their games are broadcast on the MTN channel along with SDSU's games. If I went just by one game I might have accidently seen the early game where Fredette went off for 40 plus points, and then though my god, he can't miss. Or I might have seen a game where he scored 23 pts on 6 of 20 shooting and thought, man this guy needs a lot of shots to get his points.

My point is, I've seen games where he attacked the basket relentlessly against teams that were big inside. I made the statement that he takes what the other team gives him. Thats what smart players do. If the other team has a Bill Russell under the basket, you might want to take more jumpers away from the basket, instead of trying to prove you can drive on anyone. Because you don't, doesn't mean you can't. It just means your smart. Just so you know, the guy that was guarding Jimmer last night in that game is known for his defense. How did that go for Gonazga.

Here's what I've learned about Fredette over the last three years. If you tell him that the guy guarding him is a lock down defender, he's going to go out and light him up. In all the games I've watched this year, I haven't seen one player, that by himself, stop Fredette. When Fredette gets to the NBA, I think folks will find that he's quicker than they think. He played almost all 40 minutes of yesterdays game. In the prior 4 games he did play all 40 minutes. BYU needs him on the floor at all times, because without him, they have little or no offense. He's the reason his teammates get open shots. His own coach said in an interview that they didn't ask Fredette to play defense, because of the minutes he's asked to play, and the energy he has to put out on the offensive side of the ball. You watched the game yesterday. Tell me when he ever stopped moving on offense. Name the one or two times he actually had an open shot that he didn't have to fight for.

Look the Kings aren't going to draft Fredette. Its just that I've watched this guy for a long time now. He was one of my favorite players last year. I just want him to get his due, and its easy to criticize a player without all the information. Don't get me wrong! He has some warts, just like a lot of players in this years draft. But he's not the one deminsional player a lot of people try to describe him as.
I agree with you there. As I said in my last post, it was just one game, so I am open to it being wrong. Some of the other observations are ones you can back up with stats, such as points and shooting percentages. I don't have any type of location based percentages for him though, so this was just my observation on his inside drives from this game.

I'll note though, I never described Jimmer as a one dimensional player and in fact described his passing ability in both of my posts.

Also, I am very excited to see Jimmer go up against Singleton in the next round. One of the best collegiate scorers versus one of the best collegiate defenders. Should be a very interesting matchup.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I agree with you there. As I said in my last post, it was just one game, so I am open to it being wrong. Some of the other observations are ones you can back up with stats, such as points and shooting percentages. I don't have any type of location based percentages for him though, so this was just my observation on his inside drives from this game.

I'll note though, I never described Jimmer as a one dimensional player and in fact described his passing ability in both of my posts.

Also, I am very excited to see Jimmer go up against Singleton in the next round. One of the best collegiate scorers versus one of the best collegiate defenders. Should be a very interesting matchup.
I think BYU's run ends here. But if it doesn't, then Fredette will elevate his rep to a new high. I suspect it will be Florida's Kenny Boynton that ends up guarding Fredette. You may have to wait a while and have a lot of luck to see Singleton matched up against Fredette, since he plays for Florida St. and not Florida. Don't feel bad though, everyone gets them mixed up. Just like Mich. and Mich. St.

Florida is a very, very good team, and I went against my better judgement and had Pitt beating Florida in the final 8. Should have known better. Florida ended its regular season on a roll, and Pitt didn't. Sometimes when you have two good teams, you have to go with momentum. In any event, I'll be stunned if BYU beats Florida. I will be rooting for BYU though. Some guys to keep your eye on from Florida are, as previously mentioned, Kenny Boynton, a combo guard who plays both the point and SG. Chandler Parsons, a guy that at first sight just doesn't look like anyone you'd be afraid of. He's a 6'9" 200 pound PF/Sf, who I think will be a SF at the next level, that very skilled. He rebounds much better than you would think and is a very effective scorer. The first time I saw him walk onto the court he just looked like a tall skinny kid with long scraggly hair. I almost laughed. He had the last laugh. The last guy is Vernon Macklin, a 6'9" PF. Not sure if he has a chance of making it in the NBA, but at the college level he's a good player.

Florida's size inside and the fact that they also have good guard play, should prove too much for BYU. If not, the Jimmer show till go on to new heights.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Rumor today is that Barnes is thinking of returning to school for another year. Not good news for the draft. Lets hope that Irving or Williams don't follow suit, or this draft could be a disastor. Getting the number one pick in the draft would at least give us some security. Then at least we would be assured of getting whoever is deemed the best player in the draft.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
I don't know if thats a good idea or bad idea for Barnes. I mean he will be a top 8 pick for sure but I'm guessing he wants to work on his game or something. Either way some college won't do him no harm at all.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
You have this problem, and its the same problem you had last year and the year before. You watch a player once or twice and you think thats it. I didn't think Fredette handled the ball all that well in the last game period. With either hand. And yes, he just had a bad day handling the ball. Just like players have bad days shooting the ball. In the last game he shot the ball well from the outside, and didn't really take the ball to the basket that much. In the game before he didn't shoot the ball all that well, and scored almost all of is points by driving to the basket. If you watch one game, you'd think he's not good at driving to the basket. If you watch the other, you'd think he's not that good an outside shooter.

As far Barnes. I spent most of the year ragging on him because of his poor play. but for the last 10 to 15 games, he's been impoving rapidly. Does he have flaws? yes!!!!!!!!!! But he's freaking 18 years old!!!!!!!! For crying out loud, just what the hell do you expect from 18 yr old's? Do I think he'll be a superstar? No!!!!!! But I think he's starting to show that he can be a good player in the NBA.

Now maybe I've been watching basketball too long and I'm now incapable of telling if a player is mechanical or fluid, because neither T. Jones or Barnes looks mechanical to me. To me, mechanical means they look like they're thinking about it before they do it. That hardly describes Jones who plays more like a loose cannon than a mechanical player. And my description doesn't describe Barnes either. I think early on in the season, Barnes did go through a feeling out period trying to find out what he could and could not do. But right now he looks a lot more comfortable out there.

By the way, despite his bad left hand, he only turned the ball over 3 times, which isn't bad when you consider he handles the ball most of the time. Here's a quote from Draftexpress on Fredette.

"He creates a huge chunk of his offense (68% according to Synergy Sports Technology) on his own, be it in isolation situations, in transition or in pick-and-roll sets—in that order. He's an excellent ball handler who is capable of dribbling with either hand and is very adept at splitting screens. And he's as shifty as they come, given his ability to play at different speeds."
Obfuscation and ad hominem attacks do nothing to further a discussion. Why don't you just be intellectually honest and answer a simple question. And yes, it is a yes or no question, a black and white question, a question that by the evidence of film will be shown to be right or wrong: Does Jimmer handle the ball well with his left hand?
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
Bajaden,

You still didn't tell me why you think Barnes is worthy of a top 5 pick. You just rant about the fact that he's 18 and he's improving. What's special about him? What kind of player do you envision him being in three years?
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I don't know if thats a good idea or bad idea for Barnes. I mean he will be a top 8 pick for sure but I'm guessing he wants to work on his game or something. Either way some college won't do him no harm at all.

The statement from Barnes was that he liked the college atmosphere, and that his dream is to win an NCAA championship before leaving school. He certainly won't hurt his draft status by staying another year, and who knows, he may help it. He'll definitely go in the top 10 this year, and maybe the top 5, so apparently its not about helping himself as far as the draft goes. Of course its possible that North Carolina could win the championship this year. So who knows what his decision would be then.

If he does return to school, and if all the other starters return as well, North Carolina would certainly start off next year as one of the favorites. From a purely selfish point of view, I don't want him to return. The more depth in the draft the better. We've already lost Tristan Thompson, who says he's returning to school for another year. Actually a good idea in his case. But if Hamilton follows suit, since he's only a sophmore, the draft gets weaker and weaker. We definitely need some of these underclassmen to stay in the draft.
 

Glenn

Hall of Famer
I think Barnes should spend an extra year in college. In the long run, barring major injury, it might pay off in a dollars and sense/cents way.

I FINALLY saw Williams from Arizona. A whole 5 minutes where he blew three of four free throws. But, I must say, he looks very good. One move to the basket (and a lot of reading) convinced me. I was actually a little surprised. Much stronger than I expected. Great analysis, huh?

The need for a deep draft is understood especially if we actually start to win some games.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
Bajaden,

You still didn't tell me why you think Barnes is worthy of a top 5 pick. You just rant about the fact that he's 18 and he's improving. What's special about him? What kind of player do you envision him being in three years?
For the last 15 games he's been playing like one of the top players in college. I'm not sure what your looking for. He handles the ball well, he's a decent passer. He has perfect form on his jumpshot, and can create for himself. His rebounding for the most part is average, but since I see him as a swingman, and playing alot of SG, I'm not that concerned about the rebounding. He's an above average athlete, but not a freak athlete. What I do like about him is that at least 10 times this year, when the game was on the line, he made the shot they needed made. He wasn't afraid to take that shot.

I'll add, that a lot of pressure was put on Barnes when he was ranked the number one player in college coming out of highschool. And it didn't help that he got off to a very slow start. He was getting criticism from the national media, and the local media surrounding the school. He was even getting some catcalls from the home crowd. He could have just crumbled under that pressure, which is a lot for an 18 year old kid. But instead, he started getting better. He started getting more aggressive. Right now, he's playing as well as any other college player not named Fredette or Walker. So I have him ranked at 5. To be honest, the difference between Barnes at 5 and Fredette at 10, isn't that great, and you could interchange them. They all have flaws, just different kinds.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again. I don't look for what a player can't do in college. I look for what he can do. And I rank them according to how much the possitives outrank the negatives. Now having said that, someone may take a bigger issue with one of the negatives than I do. If two players are of equal value to me, and one is a senior, and the other is a freshman, then I'm ranking the freshman higher, because if he's equal to the senior with three less years of experience, one has to believe he'll be a better player than the senior in the same time period.

So while Walker whose a junior, and Fredette whose a senior, are both better players than Barnes right now, I have to ask of the three, which one has the bigger upside? Purely subjective, but thats how I look at it. So what I guess I'm saying, is that some of the players ranked below Barnes may be better than him right now, I don't think they may be in three years from. I admit its a guess, but its an educated guess based on imporvement during the current year, and the fact that he has a reputation for having a great work ethic. Just my opinion, and you can value it for what you paid for it.

Lastly, I envision Barnes being a solid swingman. A player that can play both the SG and SF positions. A solid defender and a player that can give you consistent points every night. The biggest thing I look for in a player is consistency. A coach has to know what he's going to get from a player on a nightly basis.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I think Barnes should spend an extra year in college. In the long run, barring major injury, it might pay off in a dollars and sense/cents way.

I FINALLY saw Williams from Arizona. A whole 5 minutes where he blew three of four free throws. But, I must say, he looks very good. One move to the basket (and a lot of reading) convinced me. I was actually a little surprised. Much stronger than I expected. Great analysis, huh?

The need for a deep draft is understood especially if we actually start to win some games.
It wasn't one of his better shooting games. Doesn't matter, I love the kid..
 
I think Barnes should spend an extra year in college. In the long run, barring major injury, it might pay off in a dollars and sense/cents way.

I FINALLY saw Williams from Arizona. A whole 5 minutes where he blew three of four free throws. But, I must say, he looks very good. One move to the basket (and a lot of reading) convinced me. I was actually a little surprised. Much stronger than I expected. Great analysis, huh?

The need for a deep draft is understood especially if we actually start to win some games.

Williams is my second favourite guy in the draft. He has all the tools to be an excellent player. Size, athleticism, great basketball IQ, even showed off some passing skills against Texas. There's really not much not to like. He seems like a very nice kid too, and a hard worker. Adding him to our roster at the 3 could be scary. That is a big starting 5, as well as being athletic and full of tough rebounder types.
 
I think BYU's run ends here. But if it doesn't, then Fredette will elevate his rep to a new high. I suspect it will be Florida's Kenny Boynton that ends up guarding Fredette. You may have to wait a while and have a lot of luck to see Singleton matched up against Fredette, since he plays for Florida St. and not Florida. Don't feel bad though, everyone gets them mixed up. Just like Mich. and Mich. St.

Florida is a very, very good team, and I went against my better judgement and had Pitt beating Florida in the final 8. Should have known better. Florida ended its regular season on a roll, and Pitt didn't. Sometimes when you have two good teams, you have to go with momentum. In any event, I'll be stunned if BYU beats Florida. I will be rooting for BYU though. Some guys to keep your eye on from Florida are, as previously mentioned, Kenny Boynton, a combo guard who plays both the point and SG. Chandler Parsons, a guy that at first sight just doesn't look like anyone you'd be afraid of. He's a 6'9" 200 pound PF/Sf, who I think will be a SF at the next level, that very skilled. He rebounds much better than you would think and is a very effective scorer. The first time I saw him walk onto the court he just looked like a tall skinny kid with long scraggly hair. I almost laughed. He had the last laugh. The last guy is Vernon Macklin, a 6'9" PF. Not sure if he has a chance of making it in the NBA, but at the college level he's a good player.

Florida's size inside and the fact that they also have good guard play, should prove too much for BYU. If not, the Jimmer show till go on to new heights.
Since I am much more of a NBA affecionado than NCAA, I always mix up my X and X St. schools. Always gets me into trouble since I am a UCLA grad, as I can never remember whose good in a certain year between Washington/Washington St, Oregon/Oregon St and Arizona/Arizona St.

You have me very excited for the next matchup. Sounds like some intriguing players, though I am sad I won't get to watch Singleton v Jimmer. Seems like that would be a great NBA test for both players.
 
Rumor today is that Barnes is thinking of returning to school for another year. Not good news for the draft. Lets hope that Irving or Williams don't follow suit, or this draft could be a disastor. Getting the number one pick in the draft would at least give us some security. Then at least we would be assured of getting whoever is deemed the best player in the draft.
I'm pretty sure Irving and Williams will declare. They have nothing to gain by going back to school. Barnes at least can raise his stock significantly with a great season next year. Right now, he might be a lower lottery pick. A great season next year could put him in the top 3. Irving is likely number 1 though and Williams #5. They've both maxed out, which usually means turning pro. Hopefully, none of them are BFFs with Andrew Luck.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
I feel pretty good about Irving and Williams keeping their names in the draft. They're 1-2 on a lot of draft boards and have a lot to lose by playing another year. Sullinger has made comments about possibly staying another year too, but I think he and Barnes are top 5 picks by draft time if they stay in. Sullinger's stock probably won't get much higher than it is now. Barnes has a shot at number 1 if he stays a year, but he might actually have a shot at number 1 this year too if he has another big tournament game. He's the guy everyone is watching right now. And Irving isn't setting the world on fire yet in his return. If he does stay another year it'll be because he doesn't think he's ready yet. He's the only guy who's really in a position to decide that.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
The statement from Barnes was that he liked the college atmosphere, and that his dream is to win an NCAA championship before leaving school. He certainly won't hurt his draft status by staying another year, and who knows, he may help it. He'll definitely go in the top 10 this year, and maybe the top 5, so apparently its not about helping himself as far as the draft goes. Of course its possible that North Carolina could win the championship this year. So who knows what his decision would be then.

If he does return to school, and if all the other starters return as well, North Carolina would certainly start off next year as one of the favorites. From a purely selfish point of view, I don't want him to return. The more depth in the draft the better. We've already lost Tristan Thompson, who says he's returning to school for another year. Actually a good idea in his case. But if Hamilton follows suit, since he's only a sophmore, the draft gets weaker and weaker. We definitely need some of these underclassmen to stay in the draft.
It's a shame he's staying do to the simple fact that I would of liked him on this team but I'm not totally disappointed because as long as we have a shot of one of Irving or Williams, I'll take either one along with Barnes IF he did declare. But since he isn't, it's come down to those two for me personally.
 
There's always some top guys that talk about possibly staying in school but then eventually declare. It's not really something to worry about at this point.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
There's always some top guys that talk about possibly staying in school but then eventually declare. It's not really something to worry about at this point.
I agree! As soon as a few agents or scouts start whispering in their ears, the whole landscape starts to change. This is the last year on the old CBA for draftee's. So its entirely possible that the money they would make this year will be significantly larger than what they would make next year. The difference for the top guys could be as much as a couple a million a year. Thats a lot of sixpacks folks. I always try and frame it for the commom man. I suspose that if you come from an afluent family, it may not play that big a role in your decision. But most of these guys don't. We'll see!
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
Duke/Arizona and Kentucky/Ohio St. are coming up in the next couple days. Those are some epic match ups for draft fans. It'd be even more epic if Enes Kanter were playing for Kentucky, but we can't have everything can we?
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
For the last 15 games he's been playing like one of the top players in college. I'm not sure what your looking for. He handles the ball well, he's a decent passer. He has perfect form on his jumpshot, and can create for himself. His rebounding for the most part is average, but since I see him as a swingman, and playing alot of SG, I'm not that concerned about the rebounding. He's an above average athlete, but not a freak athlete. What I do like about him is that at least 10 times this year, when the game was on the line, he made the shot they needed made. He wasn't afraid to take that shot.
I'll add, that a lot of pressure was put on Barnes when he was ranked the number one player in college coming out of highschool. And it didn't help that he got off to a very slow start. He was getting criticism from the national media, and the local media surrounding the school. He was even getting some catcalls from the home crowd. He could have just crumbled under that pressure, which is a lot for an 18 year old kid. But instead, he started getting better. He started getting more aggressive. Right now, he's playing as well as any other college player not named Fredette or Walker. So I have him ranked at 5. To be honest, the difference between Barnes at 5 and Fredette at 10, isn't that great, and you could interchange them. They all have flaws, just different kinds.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again. I don't look for what a player can't do in college. I look for what he can do. And I rank them according to how much the possitives outrank the negatives. Now having said that, someone may take a bigger issue with one of the negatives than I do. If two players are of equal value to me, and one is a senior, and the other is a freshman, then I'm ranking the freshman higher, because if he's equal to the senior with three less years of experience, one has to believe he'll be a better player than the senior in the same time period.

So while Walker whose a junior, and Fredette whose a senior, are both better players than Barnes right now, I have to ask of the three, which one has the bigger upside? Purely subjective, but thats how I look at it. So what I guess I'm saying, is that some of the players ranked below Barnes may be better than him right now, I don't think they may be in three years from. I admit its a guess, but its an educated guess based on imporvement during the current year, and the fact that he has a reputation for having a great work ethic. Just my opinion, and you can value it for what you paid for it.

Lastly, I envision Barnes being a solid swingman. A player that can play both the SG and SF positions. A solid defender and a player that can give you consistent points every night. The biggest thing I look for in a player is consistency. A coach has to know what he's going to get from a player on a nightly basis.
Thanks. That one statement is all I needed to know.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkMCQ2i5_wo&feature=player_detailpage#t=339s

In 'Jerry's Take' he says that this is one of the worst draft in the last 10-15 years. Any thoughts on that?

I'm not the biggest on College Basketball, so thought I would ask.
Yeah I heard that too. He said there was a lack of elite talent at the top, which is true, but other than that I disagree. Really I think the only glaring weakness between this draft and the last four or five is the lack of a consensus number 1 guy like John Wall, Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose. It's similar in that respect to the 2006 draft and if you look at that draft -- LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo -- some pretty good players came out of that draft. I think that level of talent is in this draft too, you just have to pick the right guys. The second round doesn't look very exciting, but there's some really talented players that will go into the last first round who could end up being surprise picks.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkMCQ2i5_wo&feature=player_detailpage#t=339s

In 'Jerry's Take' he says that this is one of the worst draft in the last 10-15 years. Any thoughts on that?

I'm not the biggest on College Basketball, so thought I would ask.

I think that that if you're looking for a LeBron or a Garnett, I doubt that you'll find anyone that leaps off the board at you. There is no sure fire slam dunk player in this draft, if there truely is such a thing. That doesn't mean there isn't any talent. I have no doubt that there will be stars emerge from this draft. The trick is figure out who they are..
 

Spike

Subsidiary Intermediary
Staff member
Yeah I heard that too. He said there was a lack of elite talent at the top, which is true, but other than that I disagree. Really I think the only glaring weakness between this draft and the last four or five is the lack of a consensus number 1 guy like John Wall, Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose. It's similar in that respect to the 2006 draft and if you look at that draft -- LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo -- some pretty good players came out of that draft. I think that level of talent is in this draft too, you just have to pick the right guys. The second round doesn't look very exciting, but there's some really talented players that will go into the last first round who could end up being surprise picks.
This is something to remember. Even with the #1 pick, it isn't as surefire as in previous years.
 

Glenn

Hall of Famer
This is something to remember. Even with the #1 pick, it isn't as surefire as in previous years.
I have hope with this draft and even if it isn't ideal, our team will come out ahead. The last two years' drafts make this one seem like icing on the cake.
 

Spike

Subsidiary Intermediary
Staff member
Even if you have a top 5 pick, there isn't a guy you would take at #1 just because he's the best of the class. There are reasons that teams would pass on any of the players slated for the top 5, whereas in prior years you'd have a definite person you'd want to take, even if you already had someone playing that position. Like if Minny had last year's number one, I'm pretty sure they would have taken Wall even though they have 8 PGs on their roster. The year before, Blake Griffin. This year, the general consensus seems to be Kyrie Irving, but I'm pretty sure teams ahead of us would pass on him if their PG position is solidified.

BTW, anyone else keep thinking that his name should be pronounced in the Greek "Kyrie Eleison" sort of way? Too many hymnals for me, perhaps.
 
Even if you have a top 5 pick, there isn't a guy you would take at #1 just because he's the best of the class. There are reasons that teams would pass on any of the players slated for the top 5, whereas in prior years you'd have a definite person you'd want to take, even if you already had someone playing that position. Like if Minny had last year's number one, I'm pretty sure they would have taken Wall even though they have 8 PGs on their roster. The year before, Blake Griffin. This year, the general consensus seems to be Kyrie Irving, but I'm pretty sure teams ahead of us would pass on him if their PG position is solidified.

BTW, anyone else keep thinking that his name should be pronounced in the Greek "Kyrie Eleison" sort of way? Too many hymnals for me, perhaps.
At the risk of being a broken record, this means nothing to me. All this means is there is no Shaq or LeBron. However, the last time this was said was 2 years ago. Go ahead, dig in the archives. The '09 draft was supposed to be the weakest in years. Griffin was the consensus #1, but a lot of analysts said he wasn't a sure fire superstar.

In reality we got Griffin, Harden, Reke, Curry, Jennings, Lawson, etc. And Rubio still hasn't debuted. So whatever, most drafts are fine.
 
we should get jimmer freddete, the perfect backourt mate for tyreke, and a great kick out for cousins. all the other players don't fit with our pieces. we should trade down or take jimmer outright imo. also from another perspective, jimmer would add a ton of hype for the move to anaheim, seeing as the oc crowds will be white families. Jimmer will sell tons of tickets for the franchise. The OC would jump on the Jimmer-mania bandwaggon like they did with the rally monkey and the Angels years back.
 
we should get jimmer freddete, the perfect backourt mate for tyreke, and a great kick out for cousins. all the other players don't fit with our pieces. we should trade down or take jimmer outright imo. also from another perspective, jimmer would add a ton of hype for the move to anaheim, seeing as the oc crowds will be white families. Jimmer will sell tons of tickets for the franchise. The OC would jump on the Jimmer-mania bandwaggon like they did with the rally monkey and the Angels years back.
wow, you had me there the first few sentences. i had to stop reading after that