Tyreke Evans ROTY & 20/5/5 Watch

If there's a race at all it's between Tyreke and Curry. Jennings being on a winning team is utter bull****. That's like saying that Anderson Varejao is better than Al Jefferson because he's on a winning team. Is the team winning solely because of Jennings? If you put Curry or Evans in their position would the team make the playoffs?

Sometimes these "competitions" are absolute jokes.
 

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
I read the dimemag thing earlier, look at the comments, they are like 10-1 in favor of Tyreke to the other guys. Unless Kings fans dominate their comments section I think everyone but the homiest of homers know what's up.
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
Why exactly deal when the +/- numbers are right there?

The needs xx numbers are essenitally inaccurate. They make assumptions that may not be true. And if you say he needs 107ppg more today, you might in fact be completely wrong.

The +/- numbers are never wrong. He plays all 6 games they have to remain positive. He plays 1 more game they have to remain positive. If the season ends tommorow the +13, +15, +52 is valid, the needs 107, needs 15 stuff is not.
It's difficult for me to understand why there's such a passionate argument over this when it's just two different ways to look at the same numbers. The +/- view has the advantage of not requiring adjustment if a game is missed. OK, cool. The "needs xx" view has the advantage of making it easy, at a glimpse, to tell how close he is to assuring the goal. That's a decent viewpoint. too.

I prefer "needs xx" myself, because I prefer its advantage. If 'Reke is +52 assists, is it possible for him to finish under an average of 5.0? You have to calculate. But the "needs xx" view shows he's already got that one in the bag. Still, much ado...
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat

I am not in the least bit worried about Jennings -- there will be a small crew that do that just to be idiots and say they are proud of it, but there is no threat there. The only real threat is for this silly Curry hype thing. Curry is having a real good rookie year. Reke is having a historic one and is one fo the can't miss great ones. A certain amount of fools who know a lot less about basketball than their credentials would suggest will go with Curry. I'm interested in keeping that number as small as possible and not letting there be any excuse for stupidity. That's why things line the 20-5-5 are so important (and actually now that its been mentioned actually reching 20-5-6 would be a nice extra feather -- not creeping across the line, blowing it away in the area the fololish types do the most ocmplainig about).

I'll be glad when this whole thing is over and boxscore watching won't be as important. Although I guess then next yebar Reke is going to be making a push for the real All Star game, so maybe we start again.
 
what were the team records of previous roys? where any of those races influenced by team record?
Well a commenter on that article pointed out that if winning was a difference-maker in the decision, then Carmelo should have won ROY, not LeBron.

Someone also pointed out that if Milwaulkee was in the West, they'd likely be missing the playoffs.

The fact is, the top five players in each year's draft almost always go to the worst teams in the league. I understand why winning is given more weight for MVP, but I was under the impression ROY was for which rookie had the best year.
 
K

Kingsguy881

Guest
Ugh. Put Tyreke and Bogut together in the East, and they'll win more games than the Current Bucks squad. Sorry, winning games isn't everything in the ROY race.
True, because if it were Horford would have beaten out Durant and his 22 win season.
 
Lol @ this article... This really made me laugh

But of all the races, there is one that is an open and shut case: NBA Rookie Of The Year.
As if LeBron being MVP isn't an open and shut case? Then consider that Jennings is averaging like 39% shooting. Then here is the best part...

March 6 vs. Cleveland: Registered 25 points, two rebounds and six assists in a 92-85 win over the Cavaliers.

March 12 vs. Utah: Scored 23 points, grabbed four rebounds and had six assists in a 95-87 victory over the Jazz.

March 28 vs. Memphis: Posted 29 points, seven rebounds, eight assists and a career-high four steals in a 108-103 overtime victory against the Grizzlies.
Does he even realize that those stats for the first two games are basically what Reke AVERAGES?
 
I am a believer that Tyreke should win the ROY hands down EVEN IF HE DOESN'T REACH 20-5-5! He has had a stupendous rookie season. The WHOLE season, not just the final month and a half. Curry wasn't even on the radar in Nov/Dec. Sure he has had some solid games, but when you are basically the second option on a team heading to the lottery,and you are a good shooter, you will rack up a lot of points. But Points should not be the only deciding factor for the ROY Voting. Stephan Curry does NOT play defense. He occasionally steals a ball, but he tries to STEAL because he is unable to GUARD! Most of the time, his steal attempts result in layups for the opposition. TYREKE PLAYS STELLAR DEFENSE! He is already one of the top defenders at his position in the entire league at 20 YEARS OLD! Most rookies suck at defense for the first 3 years of their career. Tyreke has EXCELLED at the defensive end AND has put up 20/5/5! That is the sign of an all around great rookie season. It is the reason Tyreke is the ROY in my opinion. I think that the basketball purists that have a vote will vote in favor of Tyreke solely on this fact. If Evans does get 20/5/5, then the Statistical voters will have to account for that as a sign that he has had an OVERALL better season than any rookie and vote for Tyreke. I guess it all depends on how many voters are subject to the HYPE MACHINE coming out of Golden State right now. Jennings is really the guy in 2nd place if you count the entire season's work(15.7/3.5/5.9). Curry has come on strong this last month and a half, but it isn't like his season numbers (16.5/4.2/5.7) are even comparable to Tyreke at this point (20.2/5.7/5.8). In every statistical category, Evans is BETTER! The critics who said Evans would never be a Point Guard are silent! So even the voters that DON'T WATCH GAMES will be faced with the numbers. Voters that DO watch games will have to admit that Evans is far and away a better overall player. If Curry were on an East Coast team like NY or NJ, the hype machine would be working overtime to push Curry over Evans because of the East Coast Bias that prevails in Sports Reporting. BUT since both serious candidates are on losing west coast teams, the Numbers (and not actually the better player) will be the deciding factor and Evans STILL wins that hands down. Just .1 rebounds from being the leader in the MOST IMPORTANT categories!!

#1 Evans - (20.2/5.7/5.8) 1.5 Steals FG% .374 MPG 37.4
#2 Jennings - (15.7/3.5/5.9) 1.3 Steals FG% .371 MPG 32.8
#3 Curry - (16.5/4.2/5.7) 1.8 Steals FG% .461 MPG 35.8

Curry is a better percentage shooter (yet Evans STILL scored more) and gets more steals because stealing is really his ONLY defense. He is too slight and short to defend straight up. If there were a stat that showed points ALLOWED, Curry would be near the tops in the LEAGUE in that stat. Evans gets his steals AND plays great defense. Jennings is SLIGHTLY better in assists, but it is so close that the point is moot (so much for Evans not being able to play the point!!). Evans played slightly more minutes (1.6) yet scored significantly more (3.7 pts more) that Curry.

I put Jennings ahead of Curry because he has more assists and actually plays decent defense. Also he is on a playoff team which should account for something.

So Evans scores more, plays more, has great assist numbers, and plays by FAR the best defense of the 3 legitimate contenders for the ROY. That is why most observers think that Evans is BY FAR the leading contender for the ROY. If Tyreke just keeps playing the way he has played all season, I can not see how they could possibly give the award to anyone other than Evans. Even with the late season push by Curry, he's on the West coast and so the East Coast Bias will work against him and he will most likely finish 3rd in the voting.
 
Last edited:

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
These are the W/L records of the last 10 years of rookie of the years (11 players since Brand and Francis shared it in 99-00) along wiht the change in games won for their teams from the year before:

24-52 (+7) Evans (with 6 games to go)
-------------------
41-41 (-8) Rose
20-62 (-15) Durant
32-50 (+5) Roy
38-44 (-3) Paul
18-64 (--) Okafor
35-47 (+17) James
44-38 (+8) Stoudemire
23-59 (+0) Gasol
43-39 (+2) Miller
34-48 (-17)* Francis
17-65 (-4)* Brand

*extrapolated +/- because the '98-'99 season was only 50 games long due to the lockout.

It has NEVER been about W/L record, being lucky enough to be drafted onto a good team, or any of that other bunk. It has also never been about one season turnarounds in W/L as the great majority of these guys are drafted onto teams in turmoil/transition, in rebuilding stages, and the +/- has little meaning with all the personnel shifting around.

Its just an intellectually bankrupt argument, as are almost all of them. Ooh, maybe Jennings is ROY because his team is winning! Of course its not because of him, but who cares. You know how many games better Milwaulkee is right now than they were last year? +7. You know how many games better the Kings are than they were last year? +7. Give me a break.

It gets even worse when the same commentator will swing aournd and say ooh maybe its Curry! Yeah, the same Curry on a tema WORSE than the Kings, and one that has gotten 8 games WORSE this season. There is no logic, history, or consistency to their arguments. They are just thrown out there pissing in the wind style, just making crap up wholecloth as it suits them. ROY of the year has always gone to the best/most talented young player havingthe best individual year. The rest of the stuff has NEVER mattered. Nor should it. This is a celebration of the emerging talent in the NBA, not a proxy for being lucky enough to be drafted onto a better team.
 
Last edited:

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#1 Evans - (20.2/5.7/5.8) 1.5 Steals FG% .374 MPG 37.4
#2 Jennings - (15.7/3.5/5.9) 1.3 Steals FG% .371 MPG 32.8
#3 Curry - (16.5/4.2/5.7) 1.8 Steals FG% .461 MPG 35.8
Your numbers for Evans are wonky. His rebounds are 5.2, not 5.7, and his FG% is .459, not .374! The rebounds, not so big a deal. The shooting percentage...wow. Talk about selling a guy short! ;) All the other numbers are right (how in the world did that happen?)
 
Brick, I believe the bulls were +8, right? If they were -8 that means they would have had a 49-33 record in 07-08 and they wouldn't have even been in the lottery. Just busting your chops cause these things don't matter anyways ;)
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
As an aside, to all those who try to claim draft position does not matter, was just looking at where the ROYs have been drafted throughout history. Get this:

ROY winners 1953-2009:
#1-#5 pick: 46
#6-#10 pick: 8
Outside Top 10: 4


In other words, you want the best rookie, find a way to get into the Top 5. The draft absolutely WORKS. Its been 21 years since a player picked outisde the Top 10 was ROY. In those 21years only 3 guys picked outside the top 5 were ROY (Damon Stodamire, Amare, Roy).
 
These are the W/L records of the last 10 years of rookie of the years (11 players since Brand and Francis shared it in 99-00) along wiht the change in games won for their teams from the year before:

24-52 (+7) Evans (with 6 games to go)
-------------------
41-41 (-8) Rose
20-62 (-15) Durant
32-50 (+5) Roy
38-44 (-3) Paul
18-64 (--) Okafor
35-47 (+17) James
44-38 (+8) Stoudemire
23-59 (+0) Gasol
43-39 (+2) Miller
34-48 (-17)* Francis
17-65 (-4)* Brand

*extrapolated +/- because the '98-'99 season was only 50 games long due to the lockout.

It has NEVER been about W/L record, being lucky enough to be drafted onto a good team, or any of that other bunk. It has also never been about one season turnarounds in W/L as the great majority of these guys are drafted onto teams in turmoil/transition, in rebuilding stages, and the +/- has little meaning with all the personnel shifting around.

Its just an intellectually bankrupt argument, as are almost all of them. Ooh, maybe Jennings is ROY because his team is winning! Of course its not because of him, but who cares. You know how many games better Milwaulkee is right now than they were last year? +7. You know how many games better the Kings are than they were last year? +7. Give me a break.

It gets even worse when the same commentator will swing aournd and say ooh maybe its Curry! Yeah, the same Curry on a tema WORSE than the Kings, and one that has gotten 8 games WORSE this season. There is no logic, history, or consistency to their arguments. They are just thrown out there pissing in the wind style, just making crap up wholecloth as it suits them. ROY of the year has always gone to the best/most talented young player havingthe best individual year. The rest of the stuff has NEVER mattered. Nor should it. This is a celebration of the emerging talent in the NBA, not a proxy for being lucky enough to be drafted onto a better team.
Some of numbers are off if + is equal to how many more games their teams won in their rookie year compared to the year before their arrival and - equals the inverse.

The Bulls won 8 more games with Rose, so that should be +8 not -8. Thats most likely just a typo.

With Chris Paul you are way off. I know they won less then 20 games the year prior to his arrival, which would be at least a 19 game improvement or +19 not -3.

Durant should be at -11 not -15.

The Francis total seems wrong as well. Pretty sure the Rockets were not a 51 win team prior to his arrival, not sure on this one but that doesn't seem right.

edit: Looked up the Rockets record, you were correct when you compensate for the lock out year.

In the end all these numbers don't tell the whole story, with James being the one exception in my opinion. Many things factored into the changing records besides the addition of these players. Like you stated win total is a poor stat to use when deciding who gets rookie of the year.
 
Last edited:
The Francis total seems wrong as well. Pretty sure the Rockets were not a 51 win team prior to his arrival, not sure on this one but that doesn't seem right.
I haven't looked at anything else, but the Francis number is extrapolated because of the strike-shortened '99 season.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Some of numbers are off if + is equal to how many more games their teams won in their rookie year compared to the year before their arrival and - equals the inverse.

The Bulls won 8 more games with Rose, so that should be +8 not -8. Thats most likely just a typo.

With Chris Paul you are way off. I know they won less then 20 games the year prior to his arrival, which would be at least a 19 game improvement or +19 not -3.

Durant should be at -11 not -15.

The Francis total seems wrong as well. Pretty sure the Rockets were not a 51 win team prior to his arrival, not sure on this one but that doesn't seem right.

edit: Looked up the Rockets record, you were correct when you compensate for the lock out year.

In the end all these numbers don't tell the whole story, with James being the one exception in my opinion. Many things factored into the changing records besides the addition of these players. Like you stated win total is a poor stat to use when deciding who gets the rookie of the year.
Got knocked off year somewhere around LeBron/Okafor, these were the real splits:

W/L before/after:
Rose: Bef: 33-49; Aft: 41-41 (+8)
Durant: Bef: 31-51; Aft: 20-62 (-11)
Roy: Bef: 21-61; Aft: 32-52 (+11)
Paul: Bef: 18-64; Aft: 38-44 (+20)
Okafor: Bef: -- (expansion); Aft: 18-64 (--)
LeBron: Bef: 17-65; Aft: 35-47 (+18)
Stoudemire: 36-46; Aft: 44-38 (+8)
Gasol: Bef: 23-59; Aft: 23-59 (+0)
Miller: Bef: 41-41; Aft: 43-39 (-2)
Brand Bef: 13-37 (proj: 21-62) Aft: 17-65 (-4)
Francis Bef: 31-19 (proj: 51-31) after 34-48 (-17)
 
Last edited:

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
How did Evans not get rookie of the month for March after averaging 19.4ppg/7.5 apg/6.9 rpg ?
Well you see Evans got hurt. And also of course Curry was NEARLY as good as Evans was with 19.8pts 4.3reb 7.3ast, and as we all know When Curry is ALMOST as good as Evans he should be given any and all awards because he's like small and baby faced and stuff and Evans is just a bully.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Well Curry and Jennings put up some stinkers tonight, hopefully Evans can do his thing tomarrow night.
No no, Jennings team ALMOST won. And Curry showed how much of a team player he was and that his minutes aren't being upped just to stat pad (at least not while Nellie is chasing the wins record).

Co-ROY's?