Simone Biles is elite on all four events, finishing first in quals on both vault and floor, second on beam, and ninth on bars just outside that event’s finals - not bad for the apparatus that’s supposedly her “weakness.” When Biles hits her routines, her scoring potential quite literally cannot be matched by her opponents.
Her closest competition is Brazil’s Rebeca Andrade and it’s rather uncanny how completely on Biles’ heels she appears to be, finishing second on vault and floor, third on beam, and tenth on bars - literally one spot behind Biles in every event. However, while that would make it seem as though Andrade and Biles are neck and neck, the scoring gap between the two is nearly the same as the gap between Andrade in second and Esposito in sixth. To catch Biles, Andrade would not only have to hit every routine perfectly, but would need Biles to slip up quite a bit. Not probable, but at least potentially possible, and regardless, she is the clear favorite for silver.
Suni Lee, the defending AA Olympic champion, is favored to take home bronze and could be in the running for silver. But to do so, Lee needs to breakout her more difficult bars routine, clean up her beam, and boost her vault. I don’t think she has a better floor routine available, but then again, she added a fourth tumbling pass at the last minute in Tokyo when she shocked the world to take the gold over Andrade and Russia’s Melinkova and Urazova in still among the most clutch “rise to the occasion” moments in sports I have ever witnessed. If anyone has the ability to shift to a higher gear and bust some heads, it’s Lee.
Fourth WOULD be Jordan Chiles, but despite having the meet of her life, and finishing fourth overall, she is the third American in the standings, and will be watching from the sidelines excluded by the 2 per country maximum rule. This isn’t an opportunity for me to rail against the 2-per country rule, because I don’t particularly mind it getting more variety of countries into the mix. It’s more to mourn that we won’t be getting to see Chiles compete again in Paris until the floor event finals. She really has been an utter joy to watch this Olympics. In Tokyo, before Biles went down, Chiles was going to be effectively benched heading into team finals because of how poorly she did in quals. But in Paris, Chiles set up shop and absolutely made these Olympics her own.
The actual fourth place finisher in quails was Kaylia Nemour, a bars specialist who lives and trains in France, but is representing Algeria (and man how France could have used her this week). When I say bars specialist I mean she is the favorite to win gold in the apparatus finals, but she is truly not elite at anything else, finishing 32nd and 22nd on beam and floor respectively, and tied for 13th on vault. But this works to highlight the gap between the top three and the rest of the field. Nemour has an insanely high bars score, but if the field was filled with elite all arounders like Biles, Andrade, and Lee, Nemour wouldn’t be in the top 10.
The same can be said for the seventh place qualifier Qiu Quiyan of China, who finished second on bars behind Nemour, and actually did better on beam and floor (18 and 20), but far far worse on vault, tied for 32nd. Neither should be considered serious contenders to medal in the all-around.
The second tier of actual all-rounders are Italy’s Manila Esposito and Alice D’Amato, who are quite similar with Esposito being considerably better on vault and D’Amato being stronger on bars. Canada’s Ellie Black is a powerhouse with the ability to pop off and bust heads, but she’ll need a turbo boost on every event, beam and floor especially, to be in serious competition. Japan’s Kishi Rina was a good story in quals, facing adversity to carry her team to the team finals, but unless she has super charged routines on every event hidden up her sleeves, the clock is striking midnight and the coach is turning back into a pumpkin.